蚂蚁集团CTO何征宇: 大模型幻觉的源头是缺乏数据 《科创板日报》17日讯，在今日举行的OceanBase开发者大会上，蚂蚁集团CTO何征宇表示，没有数据 就没有AI的发展，数据的边界决定了大模型的能力上限，所有的数据公司都将成为AI公司。目前大模 型幻觉的源头是缺乏数据，廉价的互联网数据即将用尽，导致数据的获取成本增加。此外还存在严谨的 行业数据稀缺且流动困难，多模态数据处理难、数据的质量评估难等挑战。未来企业成功与否，将主要 取决于如何产生数据、应用数据。何征宇称，蚂蚁集团将支持OceanBase在金融、医疗、生活等蚂蚁AI 的核心场景的突破，同时继续支持OceanBase开源开放，推进AGI梦想的实现。（记者 黄心怡） ...

#夏季图文激励计划# 家人们，今天咱们要聊一个"魔幻现实"的故事——曾经靠"面包诱惑"火遍大江南北的绿茶餐厅，居然上市首日就"破发"了！股价开盘就跌，股民们纷纷表 示："这届餐饮股，怎么比我的午餐还难以下咽？"别急，咱们一边啃着"预制菜烤鸡"，一边扒一扒绿茶这几年的"跌宕起伏"。 一、五年五次闯关：绿茶的上市路比唐僧取经还难！ 三、从"网红顶流"到"预制菜争议"：绿茶的人设崩了？ 你以为上市是"有钱就能上"？绿茶用亲身经历告诉你："太天真了！"从2021年第一次递表开始，绿茶就像玩"闯关游戏"——招股书失效、疫情冲击、港股 低迷，硬生生卡了四年，第五次才成功"通关"。有人调侃："绿茶的IPO历程，能拍成一部《餐饮版甄嬛传》，每一次递表都是'小产后重生'。" 终于在2025年5月16日，绿茶顶着"6831"的股票代码登陆港交所，结果刚开盘就"翻车"——发行价7.19港元，午盘就跌到6.79港元，跌幅5.56%。股民们笑 称："这哪是上市，分明是'上刑'！" 为啥资本对绿茶这么"冷脸"？除了疫情和港股环境这些"天灾"，绿茶自身的"人祸"更值得玩味——比如，靠疯狂开店撑起来的业绩，到底有多少"水分"？ 二、门店比饺 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日深夜，长和集团突然发布公告，宣布其 228 亿美元的全球港口交易必须满足 "监管部门批准、无违法情形、股东同意、 常规条款" 四大条件。这份看似常规的商业声明，实则是中美博弈尘埃落定后，李嘉诚家族向中国监管部门递交的 "投名状"。当美国对 华关税从 25% 骤降至 10%，骑墙者终于意识到：在民族复兴的洪流中，没有中间地带可容身。 一、四大条件背后的妥协与无奈 长和提出的四大条件，表面上是商业谈判的标准流程，实则暗藏玄机。 首先，监管部门批准被列为首要条件。国家市场监督管理总局早在 3 月 28 日就启动了反垄断审查，首次援引《反垄断法》第二条对境外 交易实施 "长臂管辖"。这并非偶然 —— 长和拟出售的 43 个港口中，巴拿马运河两端的巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港，扼守全球 6% 海 运贸易量，而中国作为巴拿马运河第二大用户，年贸易额超 6000 亿美元。若这些港口落入美国贝莱德财团（董事会含三名五角大楼前高 官）之手，中国商船可能面临歧视性收费或通行限制，甚至物流数据被监控。此前高通收购恩智浦因中国反垄断压力被迫剥离业务，已 是前车之鉴。 其次，无违法情形的提出，无异于承认此前 ...

新房与租赁业务带动营收高增，营收结构变化影响业绩增速。 2025 年一季度公司实现营收233.3 亿元，同比增长42.4%；各项业务中，存量房、新房、家装、租赁业 务分别实现营收69/81/29/51亿元，同比增速分别为+20.0%/+64.2%/+22.3%/+93.8%，新房、租赁业务主 要带动了营收的快速增长。一季度公司经调整的Non-GAAP 归母净利润为13.9 亿元，同比基本持平。 营收增长而利润持平，主要由于收入结构变动带来的毛利率下降。一季度公司综合毛利率为20.7%，较 上年一季度下降4.5 个百分点，较上年四季度下降2.3 个百分点，这主要由于：1）贡献利润率较高的存 量房业务在收入中的占比下降，一季度其占比为29.5%，较上年一季度下降5.5 个百分点，与上年四季 度相比则提升0.9 个百分点；2）公司持续做扩店增员，固定薪酬成本占比提升，使得存量房业务的贡献 利润率下降，一季度为38.1%，较上年一季度下降6.4 个百分点，较上年四季度下降2.3 个百分点。 持续扩店增员，交易规模高增。截至一季度末，贝壳平台上的门店数量近5.7 万家，同比增长28.6%， 较2024 年年末增长10. ...

机构：东吴证券 研究员：房诚琦 家装业务稳步发展，贡献利润率逐步提升。2025Q1 公司家装业务收入稳健增长，贡献利润率同比提升 2.0pct 至32.6%，客户体验改善和效率提升初见成效。 盈利预测与投资评级：公司作为国内的经纪行业产业互联网龙头，随着未来二手房换手率以及新房中介 渗透率的不断提高，叠加协同优势下家装业务赛道的发展，未来业绩具备提升空间。我们基本维持公司 2025-2027 年经调整后净利润为97.0/116.2/136.2 亿元，对应的EPS 为1.83 元/2.36 元/2.91 元，对应的经 调整后PE 分别为16.3X/14.4X/12.3X，维持"买入"评级 风险提示：房地产行业景气度持续下行风险；新房市场中介渗透率的提升低于预期；行业竞争激烈程度 超预期；佣金率变化超预期。 +20.0%/+64.2%/+22.3%/+93.8%/-50.0%。公司营收大幅增长而毛利率下滑拖累业绩，公司毛利率同比下 降4.5pct 至20.7%，下滑的主要原因为： 1）贡献利润率相对较高的存量房业务收入占比下降；2）固定薪酬成本占存量房业务收入的比例提高。 费用率方面，公司销售费率/管理费率同比分 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：袁豪/陈鹏 投资分析意见：经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复，维持"买入"评级。 贝壳深耕经纪赛道、多次开创行业先例。平台壁垒深铸，重塑经纪底层框架、锁定人房资源，平台赋能 具备全流程管控闭环；同时家装、租赁、贝好家有望成第二增长曲线；未来凭借流量优势通过大数据挖 掘客户需求，有望更广维度扩展业务版图。考虑到公司经纪业务费率短期波动，我们维持25-27 年归母 净利润预测值分别为62、75、91 亿元，现价对应25/26 年PE 分别为26、22 倍；维持25-27 年Non-GAAP 净利润预测值分别为90、103、118 亿元，对应25/26 年PE（Non-GAAP 业绩）分别为18、16 倍。考虑 到公司经纪业务市占率持续提升，家装家居、房屋租赁业务未来放量可期，公司当前估值仍具备优势， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：地产景气度下行、公司核心骨干变动。 25Q1 公司活跃门店数量55,210 家，同比+29.6%；活跃经纪人49.1 万名，同比+23.0%；门店及经纪人的 增加也将持续转化为业务规模提升，后续市占率有望持续提升。 25Q1 家装家居、房屋租赁收入同 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,345 points, with investors considering the index's strength if it holds between 22,800 and 23,000 points. The past three days showed a volatility of 3%, making it challenging for derivative investors due to the lack of clear direction. The index is in a balanced state from April 23 to 30, with no significant change in the upward trend, although technical signals are not as strong as before. The support level is at 22,400 points, and the resistance level is at 23,800 points [1]. Group 2: Company Analysis - NetEase (09999) closed at 190 HKD, with strong buying signals indicated by 18 buy signals and only 2 sell signals. The stock has broken through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the next resistance level at 213.9 HKD [3]. - Alibaba (09988) closed at 123.4 HKD, showing a weaker performance with a significant drop. However, it has not yet breached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 118.9 HKD. The support level is at 115 HKD, with a total of 14 buy signals and 6 sell signals, leaning towards a bullish outlook [5]. - China Mobile (00941) closed at 85.8 HKD, with a positive trend as it broke through the daily chart's top. The closing price is just above the top, indicating further upward potential. The resistance levels are at 87.5 HKD and 87 HKD [8]. - CanSino Biologics (9926) closed at 83.5 HKD, having fallen from 105 HKD. The stock remains below the Bollinger Bands, with 9 sell signals despite a primary buy signal. Key support levels are at 73.4 HKD and 75.8 HKD [11]. - Meituan (03690) closed at 131.4 HKD, with concerns about maintaining the 130 HKD level. The stock is on a downward trend, with support levels at 124.5 HKD and 126 HKD [14].

Revenue Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - JD Retail revenue was 263.8 billion yuan, also up 16% year-on-year, with self-operated business revenue growing by 16% [1] - The mobile phone category benefited from subsidies, leading to a 17% year-on-year increase, while daily necessities grew by 15% [1] - The number of purchasing users increased for six consecutive quarters, with a growth rate accelerating to over 20% in the first quarter, becoming a key factor for revenue growth [1] - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and new business revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, growing 18% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the Jingxi business [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2% [2] - Retail business operating profit margin (OPM) was 4.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved gross margins [2] - Logistics business OPM was 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased short-term investments in logistics infrastructure and personnel [2] - New business OPM was -23%, a year-on-year decline of 4 percentage points, primarily due to increased losses from the Jingxi business [2] AI Integration and Shareholder Returns - The company is widely applying AI technology across retail and supply chain operations, optimizing various processes such as search recommendations and advertising algorithms [3] - Since 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 8.07 million shares, totaling about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2024 [3] Investment Outlook - The retail business continues to grow due to subsidies and improved operational efficiency, enhancing gross margins [3] - However, increased investment in the food delivery business is expected to impact profitability, leading to adjustments in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1,307.5 billion, 1,400.4 billion, and 1,486.9 billion yuan, with net profit estimates revised to 45.2 billion, 52.1 billion, and 57 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by user experience focus, content ecosystem development, and government subsidy policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [1]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. User Engagement and Growth - The platform achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in active users for six consecutive quarters, with growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The number of third-party merchant transaction users also saw double-digit year-over-year growth [2]. Retail Performance - JD Retail revenue grew 16% year-over-year to 263.8 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3]. - Revenue from 1P electronic products increased by 17% to 144.3 billion yuan, while 1P daily necessities revenue grew by 15% to 98 billion yuan [3]. - The growth was supported by a stable recovery in consumer spending and effective marketing collaborations with brands like Xiaomi [3]. Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, an 11% year-over-year increase but a 10% quarter-over-quarter decrease [4]. - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 23.2 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-over-year, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers reaching 63,000, a 13.1% increase [4]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, amounted to 5.8 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. - The management emphasized focusing on user and merchant experience, business scale, and ROI for the food delivery service [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downward to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [4]. - The target market capitalization for JD Group is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 8.7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.275 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue reached 5.804 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg's estimate of 5.797 billion yuan [1] - Subscription revenue contributed 4.22 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-over-year, also above the expected 4.174 billion yuan [1] - The number of paying users grew to 123 million, an 8.3% increase year-over-year, with the payment rate rising to 22.1%, up 2.5 percentage points [1] - Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) reached 11.4 yuan, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, benefiting from the growth of SVIP and reduced promotional activities [1] - Non-subscription revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, up 14.2% year-over-year, driven by growth in advertising revenue and income from artist-related activities and live performances [1] Social Entertainment and Other Services - Revenue from social entertainment and other services was 1.552 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-over-year, but still above the expected 1.478 billion yuan, mainly due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 44.1%, a 3.1 percentage point increase year-over-year, supported by growth in music subscription and advertising revenues, particularly from the SVIP segment and increased original content [2] - The company achieved a net profit of 4.291 billion yuan, a significant year-over-year increase of 201.8%, primarily due to the acquisition of a 2% stake in Universal Music Group (UMG) through an associate, which contributed 2.37 billion yuan to the profit [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was 2.124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24.6% [2] Future Outlook - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 31.4 billion yuan, 34.2 billion yuan, and 36.9 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP net profits of 8.8 billion yuan, 10.3 billion yuan, and 11.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 21.29x, 18.22x, and 15.87x respectively [2]