Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a projected PE of 13, 12, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the Hang Seng Index [5][7]. Core Insights - In 2024, China Feihe achieved a revenue of 20.749 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.570 billion yuan, up 5.31% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.1632 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2.72 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of about 76.19% [1]. - The infant formula segment showed steady recovery with revenues of 19.062 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.63% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Offline and online revenues for 2024 were 15.997 billion yuan and 4.751 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.89% and 19.25% [2]. - The company reported revenues from its infant formula business in mainland China, the United States, and Canada of 20.546 billion yuan, 164 million yuan, and 39 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 6.52%, -20.61%, and 1.90% [2]. Production Capacity and Margins - By the end of 2024, the company's production capacity increased to over 365,000 tons, marking an annual growth of over 11.62% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 66.34%, up 1.51 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 15% decrease in raw milk prices and product mix upgrades [2][3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 17.21%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced government subsidies and increased minority interest losses [3]. - Management expenses decreased, with the management expense ratio at 8.10%, down 0.92 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The infant formula market is expected to stabilize gradually, supported by newborn support measures, with China Feihe positioned as a leading player due to its strong R&D capabilities and brand recognition [4]. - The high-end infant formula segment is anticipated to drive continued growth, supported by rising disposable income and demand for premium products [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.37 CNY, indicating potential upside from the current stock price [9][11][40]. Core Insights - The company is advancing into the weight loss market with its self-developed GLP-1 drugs, particularly ASC30 and ASC47, which show promising clinical data and potential advantages over existing treatments [9][11][40]. - ASC30 is the first product in the company's pipeline aimed at weight loss, featuring a unique dual administration method (both oral and injection) and demonstrating superior efficacy in early clinical trials compared to competitors [9][11][40]. - ASC47 targets the clinical need for weight loss without muscle loss, showing promising results in preclinical studies against existing treatments [9][11][40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2013 and listed in 2018, focuses on innovative drug development for metabolic diseases and has a strong management team with extensive experience in the pharmaceutical industry [9][11][40]. - The company's major pipeline includes small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonists ASC30 and ASC47, which are expected to launch by 2029 [9][11][40]. Product Pipeline - ASC30 is a long-acting GLP-1 receptor agonist that can be administered both orally and via injection, with clinical trials showing it has 2-3 times the efficacy of existing treatments [9][11][40]. - ASC47 is designed to reduce weight without losing muscle mass, addressing a significant gap in the current weight loss drug market [9][11][40]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates no revenue from its commercialized products in the first half of 2024, with significant losses projected until the new products are launched [9][11][40]. - The financial outlook includes a projected net profit loss of 393.20 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 579.38 million CNY by 2026 [9][11][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1.30 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.098 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 55.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 4.75 billion, indicating a shift from profit to loss [1]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, driven by cost reduction in granular silicon production and an increase in market share [2][3]. - The company is leveraging its raw material and technology advantages to develop new growth areas in renewable energy, electronic information, and new chemical materials [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a revenue of RMB 15.098 billion and a net loss of RMB 4.75 billion [1][5]. - The granular silicon production cash cost was reported at RMB 28.17 per kg, with a unit loss estimated at RMB 11-12 per kg [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 29.87% in 2025, reaching RMB 19.607 billion, and a return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1.117 billion [5][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a leading position in granular silicon production, with a market share of 19.1% in Q4 2024, expected to rise to 25.7% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is the only domestic player with a systematic grasp of large-scale electronic-grade polysilicon preparation technology, achieving over 50% market share in this segment [3]. - The company is also expanding into new materials, including silicon-carbon anodes and perovskite solar cells, with significant efficiency improvements expected [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 11.17 billion, RMB 29.19 billion, and RMB 43.3 billion, respectively [4]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, with a target price adjusted to HKD 1.30, reflecting its leadership in granular silicon and cost advantages [4][6].

证券研究报告 石四药集团 (2005 HK) 港股通 静待恢复性增长,口服/原料药稳放量 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 01 日│中国香港 | 化学制药 | 公司公告，24 年实现收入 57.7 亿港币(-10.7% yoy),净利润 10.6 亿港币 （-19.5%yoy）,低于 Wind 一致预测。公司收入/利润下滑,主因：1）收入端， 大输液板块销量正增长,但集采影响部分品种 ASP,叠加嗅己新一次性影响拖 累安瓿板块收入,及咖啡因价格同比下滑影响原料药板块表现；2）利润端下 滑幅度大于收入端主因年内客单价偏低的塑瓶及直立软袋占比提升，从而影 响毛利率表现。展望 25 年,考虑大输液收入规模企稳,口服制剂及原料药恢 复性增长,我们看好公司 25 年净利润 10%yoy，维持"买入"。 大输液：2024 销量正增长，看好 2025 收入规模企稳 大输液板块 24 年收入 37.3 亿港币(-7.6% yoy),主因:1)销量受益集采中标+ 新直立袋产能投放而持续增长(24 年销量+6.7% yoy)；2) 部分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.65, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of HKD 5.87 [3][6]. Core Views - China Feihe's net profit for 2H24 fell short of market expectations due to short-term inventory clearance in functional nutrition products, including adult milk powder, which affected overall gross margin performance. However, the infant formula business showed revenue growth in line with expectations, and profit margins remained robust. Management is confident that revenue growth in 2025 will exceed that of 2024, with a slight increase in gross margin expected year-on-year [1][6]. - As a leader in the infant formula market, China Feihe is expected to continue driving industry consolidation. The company is actively investing in brand marketing and product technology development to enhance brand strength and meet consumer demands with higher-end products [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 19,532 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3%. In 2024, revenue is expected to increase by 6.2% to RMB 20,749 million, and further growth is projected for 2025 with an estimated revenue of RMB 21,817 million, reflecting a 5.1% increase [8][10]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 3,390 million, down 31.4% year-on-year, but is expected to recover with a 5.3% increase in 2024 to RMB 3,570 million and a further 10.5% increase in 2025 to RMB 3,944 million [8][10]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product offerings, with ultra-high-end products seeing a revenue increase of 17% in 2024, accounting for 69% of total revenue. The management anticipates continued growth in this segment, particularly for the Zhuorui brand, which has become the largest revenue contributor [6][11]. - A RMB 12 billion maternity subsidy plan is set to launch in April 2025, expected to have a limited negative impact on overall profit margins due to its structure and the company's marketing adjustments [6][11]. Dividend Policy - China Feihe plans to increase its dividend payout, with a projected dividend of HKD 0.3264 per share for 2024, raising the payout ratio to 76.1%. The management aims for a 10% annual increase in absolute dividend amounts over the next two years, assuming no major acquisitions [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 7.66% to 2.79 billion, while adjusted net profit fell by 18.56% to 363 million, impacted by the timing of civil service exams and intensified industry competition [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand in the examination training sector and the company's ongoing investment in AI technology [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the training business generated revenue of 2.34 billion, down 6.9% year-on-year, with online learning products and large classes experiencing significant declines due to competition [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 52.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with training services gross margin rising to 56.0% [4] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 370 million, 410 million, and 460 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3%, 10%, and 11% [5][6] AI Development - The company has expanded its AI product matrix, launching several AI-driven educational tools, including "Fenli AI Teacher" and "AI Teacher Interview Feedback," enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [3] - The company plans to increase its AI R&D investment by 30% annually and collaborate with top institutions to build an educational AI model laboratory [3] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company benefits from a robust online and offline synergy, positioning itself as a leading player in the examination training market, with a contract liability of approximately 140 million as of 2024 [5] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for examination training and skills assessment, ensuring sustainable long-term growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Longyuan Power (916 HK), with a target price of HKD 8.00, indicating a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 6.23 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The 2024 wind power feed-in tariff is expected to outperform expectations, and the company's three-year dividend policy is anticipated to be well-received by investors [2][7]. - The company is projected to see a 2.9% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching RMB 6.38 billion, which is 4% higher than previous expectations [7]. - The report highlights that the company's minority interest increased significantly, reflecting a higher profit contribution from projects in the southeastern region [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 37,638 million in 2023, RMB 31,370 million in 2024, and expected growth to RMB 34,663 million in 2025 [6][17]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 6,355 million in 2023 to RMB 6,425 million in 2024, and further to RMB 6,923 million in 2025 [6][17]. - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with the final dividend for 2024 expected to increase by 2% to RMB 0.2278 per share [7][17]. Operational Data - The company plans to add a total of 6 GW of new wind and solar capacity in 2025, with a focus on controlling capital expenditures, which are expected to decrease by 18% to RMB 238 billion [7][12]. - The total installed capacity is projected to grow from 35,594 MW in 2023 to 41,143 MW in 2024, and further to 47,143 MW in 2025 [12][17]. - The report indicates that the company’s financial metrics, such as the price-to-earnings ratio, are expected to improve, with a forecasted PE ratio of 9 times for 2025 [7][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 2.812 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.9% to 283 million yuan [1]. - The decline in egg retrieval cycles in 2024 is attributed to the inclusion of certain assisted reproductive projects in medical insurance, leading to a postponement of patient visits [2]. - The company is expanding its domestic and international presence, with a strategic partnership in Southeast Asia to enhance growth opportunities [3]. - The introduction of local fertility subsidy policies is expected to stimulate growth in the coming years, alongside the rollout of medical insurance policies for assisted reproductive services [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.812 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.81% compared to 2023. The net profit is projected to decline to 382 million yuan in 2025, followed by a gradual recovery [5]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the core assisted reproductive services (ARS) generated 1.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.25%, while consumables and equipment sales increased by 5.77% to 121 million yuan [2]. Business Segments - The company’s domestic revenue from the Chengdu region was 1.473 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.13%, while overseas revenue reached 604 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.0% [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas ARS cycles, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%, indicating resilience in international operations [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the combination of fertility subsidies and medical insurance policies will drive an increase in egg retrieval cycles, positively impacting future revenue [4]. - The company’s earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward due to anticipated changes in cycle numbers and cost structures, with new projections of 382 million yuan and 416 million yuan respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 13.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and a net profit of 3.308 billion yuan, up 203.9% [1]. - The second half of 2024 saw even stronger performance, with revenue of 8.480 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.2%, and a net profit of 2.344 billion yuan, up 283.3% [1]. - The company's gross margin improved significantly, with a gross margin of 66.79% for 2024, an increase of 5.46 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China was 7.972 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.3%, accounting for 61.1% of total revenue [2]. - Revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets reached 5.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 375.2%, accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [2]. - The company's self-owned IP products generated 12.722 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 117.2%, representing 97.6% of total revenue [2]. Product and IP Performance - The company's artist IP, THEMONSTERS, generated 3.041 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 726.6% [4]. - The plush toy segment saw remarkable growth, with revenue of 2.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1289.04% [2]. - The company successfully expanded its retail presence, adding 38 offline stores and 110 robot stores in mainland China [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21 billion yuan, 28.9 billion yuan, and 39.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 61.0%, 37.6%, and 38.0% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 5.917 billion yuan, 7.815 billion yuan, and 10.189 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 73.9%, 32.1%, and 30.4% respectively [5].

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.23 | 港元 | 8.00 | +28.4% | | | 龙源电力 (916 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年风电电价优于预期，订出 3 年派息政策应受投资者欢迎 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 8.29 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 5.31 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,670.39 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 69.63 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (3.26) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 6.34 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 郑民康 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 916 HK 恒生指数 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 18 ...