Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the company, down from a previous buy rating [3][7][14]. Core Insights - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth trend in the AIGC industry, with 67% of its 2024 revenue coming from video creative products, primarily AI-enabled Filmora and Virbo [3][14]. - Revenue is expected to recover in 2025 with a projected year-on-year growth of 15%, following a decline of 3% in 2024 due to a strategic shift from PC to mobile [4][12]. - The company has launched an upgraded AI video model, Tianmu 2.0, which enhances video quality and production efficiency, further solidifying its position in the content generation sector [5][12]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates a return to revenue growth in 2025, driven by new application launches and user growth, despite high marketing expenses expected to remain at 53% [4][12]. - The net profit margin is projected to turn positive at 3.7% in 2025, benefiting from operational leverage and improved efficiency from AI integration [13][14]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The target price has been adjusted from RMB 72.00 to RMB 70.00, reflecting a new DCF valuation that corresponds to a 7.8x EV/Sales for 2025E [6][34]. - The company's current stock price of RMB 68.47 implies a valuation slightly above its historical average of 7.1x EV/Sales [6][36]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 7-15%, primarily due to the weak revenue performance in 2024 [6][32]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company faces increasing competition from emerging AI-native startups and established players like CapCut, which may limit its short-term profit upside [14][12]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a competitive edge through continuous product upgrades and effective marketing strategies to attract a broader consumer base [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Hydraulic, anticipating a sequential business recovery driven by improving excavator component demand and potential growth in the humanoid robot sector [3][25]. Core Views - The report highlights that Hengli's earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 17% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q25, up from only 3% YoY in 1Q25, primarily due to stronger demand for excavator components from Chinese OEMs and foreign customers [1][19]. - Revenue growth for Hengli is forecasted at 13% YoY in 2Q25, driven by the excavator component business, which is outpacing the overall growth of China's excavator industry [2][19]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully accounted for Hengli's potential to outgrow the Chinese excavator industry due to increased exports and restocking by foreign OEMs [2][19]. Financial Summary - Hengli's estimated net profit for 2Q25 is projected to be Rmb800 million, reflecting a 17% YoY increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [2][8]. - The target price for Hengli is set at Rmb85.0, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40x for 2025E, which aligns with its historical average [26][7]. - The expected total return for Hengli's shares is 22.1%, comprising a 21.1% price return and a 1.0% dividend yield [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Hengli Hydraulic is recognized as China's leading hydraulic parts supplier, focusing on the research, development, and manufacturing of hydraulic components [24]. - The company is preparing to produce up to 100,000 planetary roller screws for humanoid robot clients by 2026, despite uncertainties in demand from clients [25]. - The report notes that losses from Hengli's Mexico and ball screw & linear guide plants are expected to decrease as production ramps up [25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry in China Core Insights - Chinese apparent oil demand showed year-on-year growth for the first time in three months, increasing by 160 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to 15.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May, driven by strong demand for petrochemicals and travel fuels during the Labour Day holiday [3][6] - Crude imports fell by 720 kb/d month-on-month (MoM) and 90 kb/d year-on-year (YoY) in May, attributed to peak refinery maintenance and high inventory levels [52][61] - Refinery throughput decreased by 200 kb/d MoM, with offline capacity reaching 2.1 mb/d due to maintenance at major state-owned refiners [5][64] - Diesel demand weakened, falling by 60 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, influenced by the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a struggling real estate sector [12][15] - Jet fuel demand rose by 55 kb/d MoM, supported by increased travel during the Labour Day holiday, although it was down 120 kb/d YoY [26][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand increased by 1% YoY in May, with strong naphtha demand as refiners replaced US LPG and ethane imports [3][6] - Crude imports softened further in May, with Iranian crude imports dropping by 40% MoM due to sanctions risk and high inventory levels [4][53] - Refinery throughput fell by 200 kb/d MoM, with all major state-owned refiners offline during peak maintenance [5][64] Product Exports and Imports - Refined product net exports weakened in May, with diesel exports reduced due to strong domestic margins [6][67] - Total product exports fell by 180 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, driven by lower gasoline and fuel oil exports [68][93] - LPG imports decreased by 230 kb/d MoM due to a 125% tariff on US LPG, which was later reduced to 10% [76][41] Inventory Data - Crude stocks built rapidly in May, adding approximately 33 million barrels due to low refinery demand [156] - Observable product inventories drew by around 20 million barrels in May, with significant draws in diesel and gasoline stocks [157][161] Refining Data - Gasoline cracks averaged $14.0/bbl in May, down $2.0/bbl from April, while diesel cracks rose to $21.4/bbl [112][113] - Refinery output of diesel and gasoline declined in May, with jet fuel output increasing due to higher demand [141][147] Trade Quotas - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 31.8 million tons, slightly lower YoY [98][100] - The allocation of quotas primarily favors state-owned companies, with Sinopec and PetroChina receiving about 72% of available quotas [98][100]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Sieyuan Electric, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [4][8]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric reported a net profit increase of 45.7% year-on-year to Rmb1,293 million in 1H25, surpassing market expectations [1][11]. - Revenue grew by 37.8% year-on-year to Rmb8,497 million, significantly exceeding the company's target of over 20% growth for 2025 [1][11]. - The net profit surge was attributed to both revenue growth and net margin expansion, which increased by 0.8 percentage points to 15.2% [1][11]. - The company aims for new orders to grow over 25% year-on-year in 2025, with a focus on international markets and non-grid customers [2][8]. - Sieyuan's R&D expenses were 7% of revenue in 2024, supporting new business developments such as energy storage systems and advanced switchgear [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025E, net profit is forecasted to reach Rmb2,660 million, reflecting a growth of 29.8% year-on-year [3][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 9.89%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1][11]. Market Position - Sieyuan's overseas orders accounted for approximately 30% of total orders, with significant growth from regions like the Middle East and South America [2][8]. - The company has established a strong presence in the UHV gas insulated switchgear market, enhancing its market recognition [6][8]. Valuation - The target price for Sieyuan Electric is set at Rmb87.00 per share, based on a discounted cash flow model, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price [4][12]. - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is projected at 25.2% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Montage with a 12-month target price of Rmb106.00, indicating an upside potential of 27.7% from the current price of Rmb83.03 [17][15]. Core Insights - Montage's 2Q25 revenue is expected to grow by 52% year-over-year (YoY) to Rmb1.4 billion, driven by the increasing demand for DDR5 and Gen-3 interface integrated circuits (ICs) [1][4]. - The net income (NI) guidance for 2Q25 is projected to be between Rmb575 million and Rmb675 million, representing a YoY growth of 62% to 90%, which is 18% higher than previous estimates [1][4]. - The company's profitability is improving due to a shift towards higher-margin DDR5 interface ICs and enhanced operating leverage [1][4]. Revenue and Earnings Projections - The report revises earnings estimates upward by 5% for 2025, 3% for 2026, and 3% for 2027, reflecting higher revenues from DDR5 interface ICs and an improved product mix [5][8]. - Revenue projections for Montage are Rmb5.775 billion for 2025, Rmb8.366 billion for 2026, and Rmb10.926 billion for 2027, with corresponding gross profits of Rmb3.489 billion, Rmb5.059 billion, and Rmb6.613 billion respectively [8][17]. Margin Analysis - The report anticipates an increase in gross margin from 60.4% in 2025 to 60.5% in 2027, alongside an improvement in operating margin from 38.9% to 45.1% over the same period [8][9]. - The net margin is expected to rise from 41.4% in 2025 to 43.4% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The strong revenue growth is attributed to the rising penetration of DDR5 interface ICs and the increasing contribution from Gen-2 and Gen-3 products, with expectations that Gen-3 shipments will surpass Gen-2 by 4Q25/1Q26 [4][5]. - The company is set to begin production of Gen-4 DDR5 interface ICs, which are anticipated to offer better pricing and margins [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shennan Circuits with a 12-month target price of Rmb132, up from Rmb116.92, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [1][15][21]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuits is expected to see a revenue growth of 19% YoY to Rmb5.2 billion in 2Q25, with net profit remaining relatively flat at -1% YoY due to a high base effect. The gross margin is projected to be 25.3%, slightly increasing QoQ due to product mix improvements [1][3]. - The growth in AI PCB is anticipated to be a significant driver for the company's revenue, with contributions expected to reach 18% and 20% of total revenue in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [12][15]. - The report highlights the optimization of BT substrate pricing, which is expected to positively impact earnings in 3Q25, driven by rising demand and higher raw material costs [7][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2Q25E, revenue is estimated at Rmb5,194 million, representing a 19% YoY increase and a 9% QoQ increase. The net income is projected at Rmb600 million, reflecting a -1% YoY change [3][14]. - The gross margin is expected to be 25.3%, with operating profit at Rmb635 million, indicating an 18% QoQ increase [3][14]. AI PCB Outlook - The demand for AI PCB is confirmed to remain strong, supported by increasing orders from domestic AI customers and steady overseas demand. Shennan's PCB utilization is reported to be close to 90% [2][12]. - AI PCB is projected to be the primary driver of incremental profits for Shennan in 2025E, with significant contributions to gross profit expected [18][15]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Shennan Circuits is well-positioned to benefit from the domestic AI infrastructure cycle in China, capturing demand overflow from PCB peers that primarily serve US customers [6][15]. - The company has been expanding its capacity both domestically and internationally to leverage opportunities in the overseas market [6][15].

Investment Rating - The stock rating for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd is Equal-weight [4] - The industry view is Attractive [4] Core Insights - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd reported preliminary profit for 1H25 of Rmb2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56-68%, aligning with consensus estimates [1][2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 is estimated to be Rmb1.35-1.55 billion, reflecting an 18-35% year-on-year increase and an 8-24% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The substantial profit growth is attributed to the production from the Huafei project, stable operations and cost savings from the Huayue project, increased self-sufficiency in raw materials, rising cobalt prices, and improved operational efficiency [2] Financial Projections - The expected EPS for fiscal years ending in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 are Rmb2.05, Rmb1.34, Rmb1.42, and Rmb2.00 respectively [4] - Revenue projections for the same fiscal years are Rmb65,936 million, Rmb63,642 million, Rmb66,235 million, and Rmb70,900 million respectively [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from rising cobalt prices in 2H25, which have increased approximately 7% since the DRC announced an extension of the cobalt export ban [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for Daqo, while Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass are rated Neutral, and LONGi and Tongwei are rated Underweight [31][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese solar industry is facing challenges due to aggressive capacity expansion, leading to significant cash losses for many producers. The government is expected to intervene to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [3][6][5]. - The WIND Solar Power Index, which includes 30 major A-share solar stocks, saw a 3% increase on July 2, 2025, following President Xi's remarks on potential supply-side reforms, while HK-listed solar stocks surged by approximately 10% [5][2]. - Current valuations for major A-share solar manufacturers are at 1.6x forward P/B multiple, while H-share solar glass makers trade at 0.8x, indicating a less attractive risk/reward scenario compared to previous supply-side reform cycles [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Solar module prices have decreased from approximately Rmb 2.0/W in 2022 to Rmb 0.7/W in July 2025, and polysilicon prices dropped from Rmb 300/kg to Rmb 35/kg, primarily due to an unbalanced supply and demand outlook [6][3]. - The majority of solar manufacturers are currently generating net losses, with over 50% of module sales volume directed to overseas markets, effectively subsidizing global energy transition efforts [6][3]. Trading Implications - The sector has historically rebounded by an average of 7% during four previous instances of government intervention news, but subsequent de-rating trends have been observed [16][4]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to trading in the solar sector, as the market may already be aware of the difficulties in implementing effective policy interventions [16][24]. Company Analysis - Daqo is highlighted as a standout investment opportunity due to its undemanding valuation at 0.2x FY25 P/BV, while LONGi and Tongwei are viewed as unattractive compared to peers even under a potential supply-side reform scenario [24][31]. - The report ranks companies based on risk/reward considerations, with Daqo at the top, followed by Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass, while LONGi and Tongwei are at the bottom of the list [24][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Foxconn Industrial Internet is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb26.00, indicating an expected return of 11.1% [3][20]. Core Insights - Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) reported a net profit guidance for 2Q25 of Rmb6.73-6.93 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 48%-52%, which exceeds CitiE and BBGe estimates by 12% and 26% respectively [1][2]. - Cloud computing revenue for FII increased by over 50% in 2Q25, with AI server revenue growing by over 60% year-over-year, although this was below the initial guidance of 100%+ [1][2]. - The revenue from CSP servers rose by more than 150% year-over-year in 2Q25, and significant growth was observed in GPU module and compute tray shipments [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FII's net profit guidance for 2Q25 is as follows: - High-end: Rmb6.93 billion, a 52% increase year-over-year - Medium: Rmb6.83 billion, a 50% increase year-over-year - Low-end: Rmb6.73 billion, a 48% increase year-over-year [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb26.00 is based on a valuation of 17.0x 2025E earnings, which is justified by an earnings upcycle expected in 2025-2026 [6]. - The valuation multiple aligns with a blended P/E approach, applying 15x P/E to the non-AI segment and 20x P/E to the AI segment [6]. Market Context - The market capitalization of FII is approximately Rmb476.23 billion (US$66.46 billion) [3]. - The expected dividend yield is 2.7%, contributing to the overall expected return of 11.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Accelink Technologies is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb24.6, indicating an expected share price return of -46.7% [2][5]. Core Insights - Accelink Technologies expects a net profit growth of 55%-95% YoY for 1H25, with guidance of Rmb323 million to Rmb407 million, driven by strong optical transceiver demand and an improved product mix [1][4]. - The mid-point of the 2Q25 earnings guidance at Rmb215 million is slightly below expectations, suggesting potential downside risk to the share price, which is currently trading at a high valuation of 37x FY25 PE compared to peers at around high-teens [1][5]. - The valuation of Accelink is considered demanding due to lower profitability in the domestic transceiver market and relatively lower earnings growth compared to competitors like Innolight and Eoptolink [1][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Guidance - For 2Q25, Accelink's net profit guidance is Rmb215 million, a 64% increase from Rmb131 million in 2Q24, while for 1H25, the guidance is Rmb365 million, a 75% increase from Rmb209 million in 1H24 [4]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb24.6 is based on a P/E multiple of 20.0x 2025E EPS, which is one standard deviation below the stock's five-year historical forward PER [5]. Market Capitalization - Accelink Technologies has a market capitalization of Rmb37,228 million (approximately US$5,196 million) [2].