December 17, 2025 10:00 PM GMT The Robot Almanac Vol. 4: Drones & Air Mobility Morgan Stanley Global Embodied AI Team December 2025 The content addressing private companies is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or imply future research coverage if the company goes public. Content is based on unaudited information. No investment recommendation is provided as there is limited public information available for private companies. Investors should conduct their o ...

December 16, 2025 10:00 PM GMT The Robot Almanac Authors (1/2) Ariana.Salvatore@morganstanley.com Gary.Yu@morganstanley.com Source: Morgan Stanley Research Vol. 3: Humanoids & Industrial Robots Morgan Stanley Global Embodied AI Team December 2025 The content addressing private companies is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or imply future research coverage if the company goes public. Content is based on unaudited information. No investment recommendation i ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of Rmb 587.50, up from the previous target of Rmb 545.50 [5]. Core Insights - The demand outlook for the company is strong, with significant underestimation in its valuation. The company has been added to UBS's Key Call Buy list [1]. - Earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 0.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting an increase in domestic wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from advancements in 3D NAND applications and increased visibility in domestic advanced logic chip demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The company's WFE revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 1% and 8%, corresponding to Rmb 400 million and Rmb 4.5 billion respectively [2]. - The revenue growth is anticipated to be confirmed mostly in 2027 due to the typical 12-month order-to-revenue recognition cycle [2]. Growth Outlook Post-2027 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of domestic WFE demand post-2027 are addressed, indicating that capacity expansion for advanced logic and storage wafer fabs in China may remain strong from 2026 to 2030 [3]. - The projected CAGR for the company's revenue and earnings from 2027 to 2029 is estimated at 17% and 20% respectively [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to Rmb 587.50 based on a P/BV multiple increase from 8.6x to 9.3x, reflecting improved mid-term ROE [4][14]. - The new target price implies a PE of 42x for 2026E and 31x for 2027E, compared to a projected earnings CAGR of 30% from 2026 to 2028 [4][14]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 39.43 billion in 2025E to Rmb 66.88 billion in 2027E, with a significant increase in net profit from Rmb 6.75 billion to Rmb 13.73 billion during the same period [7][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from Rmb 9.32 in 2025E to Rmb 18.95 in 2027E, reflecting a growth of 48.9% [7][16].

8 December 2025 | 2:12PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BROKERS & ASSET MANAGERS Regulator proposes easing leverage for 'high-quality brokers'; GFS/CICC well-placed for ROE upside Recently, the CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) proposed to optimize evaluation metrics for 'high-quality institutions' (see here), moderately expanding their capital space and leverage ceilings, and increasing capital utilization efficiency. We believe this will help brokers fulfilling the criteria (yet to be provided by t ...

摩根士丹利热点前瞻-机器人产业最新调研反馈 20251208 调查显示，企业对人形机器人的采购意愿非常强烈，有 62%的受访者表示他们 将在未来三年内尝试使用机器人。然而，目前只有 23%的受访者对现有的人形 机器人产品感到满意，大多数人认为这些产品需要进一步改进。主要瓶颈在于 产品本身，包括硬件和软件的发展、工作场景的验证和适配等方面。 企业计划将人形机器人应用在哪些具体场景中？ 摘要 当前人形机器人满意度仅为 23%，主要瓶颈在于硬件、软件发展及场景 适配，企业期望机器人承担特定场景工作，而非通用能力。 未来五年内，预计机器人将取代 11%的工作岗位，十年内可能达到 28%，工业和制造业替代比例高于服务业，90%的受访者计划未来三年 内增加机器人支出。 企业采纳人形机器人的主要挑战包括能力有限、成本高、集成复杂及维 护成本高，期望改进方向为协作能力、灵活性和自我学习能力，合理价 格区间为 20 万人民币以下。 品牌偏好方面，语数机器人最受青睐，其次是云深处、优必选等。选择 品牌时，可靠性、安全性、功能性、成本及场景融合性是关键因素。 智能机器人行业长期乐观，但短期内面临产品瓶颈，预计 2026 年行业 将 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on the robotics industry, projecting significant growth in revenues and unit sales through 2050, with a total of $25 trillion in combined robot revenues anticipated by that year [2][38]. Core Insights - The Morgan Stanley Robot Almanac serves as a comprehensive guide to the physical AI sector, detailing the expected adoption of robotics and its impact on the global economy, potentially multiplying the $115 trillion global GDP over time [2][11]. - The report introduces the Global Robot Model (GROM), which forecasts the total addressable market (TAM) for robotics, including unit sales and revenue across various form factors such as autonomous vehicles, industrial robots, and drones [11][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI-enabled robotics in driving the 3rd Industrial Revolution, with projections of 1.4 billion annual robot unit sales by 2050 [35][38]. Summary by Sections Overview of Robotics - The report outlines the dynamic nature of physical AI and its integration into various sectors, highlighting the potential for transformative impacts across industries [2][4]. Market Projections - By 2050, the report estimates that there will be 6.5 billion robots in operation globally, with significant contributions from home robotics, industrial robots, and autonomous vehicles [12][39]. - Revenue estimates indicate a steady increase, with projections of $91 billion in 2024 growing to $25 trillion by 2050, reflecting the expanding market for robotics [41][42]. Robotics Adoption and Demand - The GROM model provides detailed projections for robotics demand across key components, including cameras, lidar, and semiconductors, essential for the development of various robotic applications [11][37]. - The report categorizes robotics into several verticals, including autonomous cars, drones, humanoids, and industrial robots, each with distinct growth trajectories and market dynamics [7][13]. Regional Insights - The report highlights regional differences in robotics adoption, with the USA, China, and the Rest-of-World showing varying growth patterns and market sizes [42][43]. - Specific revenue and unit sales forecasts are provided for each region, indicating a robust growth outlook particularly in China and the USA [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly in AI and compute, with expectations for strong growth into 2026 [4][19]. Core Insights - AI order books remain robust, with companies like Google and Anthropic reporting significant sales growth, indicating a strong demand for AI-related products [4][6]. - Companies are managing memory constraints effectively, with rising prices prompting adjustments in product specifications and pricing strategies [4][6]. - TSMC anticipates a 45% CAGR in AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029, reflecting strong demand from fabless customers and hyperscalers [19]. Summary by Sections AI and Compute - Companies reaffirmed strong AI order books, with Anthropic scaling sales from US$1 billion to US$7 billion over the past year [4]. - NVIDIA expects US$500 billion in sales through 2026, driven by AI demand and partnerships with companies like Anthropic [4][17]. - Anthropic's B2B-first strategy is yielding significant revenue growth, with a focus on enterprise applications [6][7]. Equipment and Packaging - Applied Materials sees leading-edge logic as the strongest driver for growth, with a projected increase in demand for advanced packaging [8]. - Amkor is optimistic about AI growth from a low base, with expectations for recovery in various sectors including automotive and industrial [6][8]. Hardware and Mobile - Dell reported strong demand for AI servers, with a backlog of US$18.4 billion and expectations for continued growth in 2026 [10]. - Qualcomm anticipates a slowdown in premiumization trends but remains optimistic about future upgrades with new technology [4][10]. Power and Infrastructure - Infineon is targeting US$1.5 billion in AI revenue for FY2025, up from US$700 million, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [12][13]. - Lightmatter is advancing optical interconnect solutions, which could significantly enhance compute efficiency [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to see a mid-30% CAGR in leading-edge logic and DRAM/ HBM wafers, driven by AI and data center demand [8]. - TSMC's proactive capex strategy aims to support the anticipated growth in Cloud AI, with investments projected to reach US$50 billion in 2026 [19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese economy is facing dual challenges of debt tightening and declining real estate prices, leading to reduced consumption and investment, which puts pressure on economic growth [1][3] - The geopolitical economic competition between China and the US shows that China leads in manufacturing while the US excels in monetary finance [1][5] - AI technology advancements are driving the chip industry, but the efficiency of performance improvements is decreasing according to Moore's Law, raising concerns about potential AI bubble risks [1][6] - The US and Europe are implementing policies to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, which has already led to a significant decrease in China's exports to the US [1][7] - China's exports are showing strong growth, particularly to Africa, ASEAN, and Europe, as companies increasingly rely on export markets due to weak domestic demand [1][8] Summary by Sections Economic Challenges - The main challenges facing the Chinese economy include debt tightening and declining real estate prices, which have led to reduced consumption and investment, creating downward pressure on economic growth [3][4] - The increase in debt repayments by businesses and households has led to higher savings, but weak demand has resulted in decreased loan demand [3][4] Geopolitical Competition - China and the US have distinct competitive advantages, with China excelling in manufacturing and the US in monetary finance [5] - Both countries are advancing in the digital economy and AI, but the US is attempting to restrict China's AI technology development through semiconductor export limitations [5] AI and Chip Industry - AI advancements are significantly impacting the chip industry, allowing for performance improvements through algorithm optimization, but the diminishing returns on investment in chip performance need to be monitored [6] Trade Dynamics - The US and Europe are taking measures to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing, with new tariffs leading to a notable decline in Chinese exports to the US [7] - China's export growth is robust, driven by weak domestic demand and a shift in trade partners towards countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [8][9] Domestic Demand Issues - The imbalance between production and consumption in China is contributing to insufficient domestic demand, necessitating coordinated development of internal and external cycles to enhance consumption [10][11] - Improving income distribution and strengthening the social security system are essential for boosting total demand and sustainable economic growth [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company Core Insights - The production of copper and molybdenum is expected to be impacted by the suspension of Inner Mongolia mining operations, leading to an estimated reduction of approximately one month in annual output [2][4] - The company anticipates stable production of copper and molybdenum in 2026, with gold production growth primarily driven by acquisitions and the Shaling project, contributing a total of nearly 3 tons of gold [5][12] - The Shaling project is projected to commence production in the second half of 2026, contributing about 1 ton of gold output [6][12] - The company has experienced significant cost increases in the first three quarters of 2025, with limited potential for future cost reductions due to rising labor and safety investment costs [8][24] Summary by Sections Production and Financial Outlook - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 18.4 tons of gold, 80,000 tons of copper, and 6,000 tons of molybdenum, with smelting outputs of 38 tons of gold and 400,000 tons of copper [4] - The company expects a decrease in copper and molybdenum production due to the suspension of operations, with costs for copper and molybdenum at approximately 38,000 yuan/ton and 190,000 yuan/ton respectively [4][8] Project Developments - The Shaling project has a total investment of approximately 6 billion yuan, with nearly 4 billion yuan already invested, and is expected to release 4-5 tons of production by 2027 and reach full capacity of 10 tons by 2028 [15][12] - Acquisitions such as the Dabayang and Liaoning mines are expected to maintain current production levels without expansion plans [7][12] Cost and Production Challenges - The company faces limited room for cost reductions in the future, primarily due to increased labor and safety costs, as well as a decline in ore grades [8][24] - The Inner Mongolia mining suspension's impact has been accounted for in the third-quarter financials, with normal production expected to resume in the fourth quarter [9] Future Production Plans - The company anticipates that the gold production from acquisitions and the Shaling project will contribute significantly to its output in 2026, with a projected total increase of nearly 3 tons [5][12] - The overall rights production for the group is expected to be close to 80% in the coming year, excluding the Shaling project [20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating potential for a long-term bull market driven by structural factors in both the asset and funding sides [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market in the Chinese stock market requires a combination of asset-side and funding-side factors, with globalization enhancing both aspects [3][18]. - It highlights that despite a decline in economic growth rates, stable profit growth and elevated valuation levels can sustain a bull market, drawing parallels with historical experiences from developed countries [15][22]. - The report identifies key drivers for the A-share market's upward momentum, including growth potential, high-quality overseas expansion, and improvements in corporate governance [4][5][6][7]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The report discusses the transition towards a more efficient economy, driven by innovation and research, as the financial cycle shifts downwards [4][24]. - It notes that China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 2.6%, aligning with developed countries, and highlights the increasing complexity of the economy [25][30]. High-Quality Overseas Expansion - The report states that China is actively expanding through trade and investment, with high-tech and high-growth companies increasingly exposed to international markets [5][33]. - It mentions that the share of overseas revenue for specialized and innovative companies has risen significantly, indicating a shift towards global markets [35][39]. Corporate Governance Improvements - The report outlines various policies aimed at enhancing corporate governance, increasing transparency, and encouraging dividend payouts, which are expected to improve overall market returns [6][43]. - It highlights that the contribution of dividends to total returns in the A-share market has been low but is improving due to recent reforms [48][49]. Global Long-Term Funding - The report emphasizes the importance of stable long-term funding, particularly from insurance and pension funds, in supporting the bull market [7][57]. - It notes that global capital rebalancing may lead to increased foreign investment in the Chinese market, enhancing liquidity and valuation [61][63].