Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of special port fees for U.S. vessels, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese ship management companies [7] - The shipping service business demonstrated resilience despite a decline in market rates, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 23% to $80 million in the first half of 2025 [7] - The ship management business saw a significant profit increase, with revenue rising 73% year-on-year to $57 million and a pre-tax profit increase of 104% to $8.1 million [7] - The fleet size is expanding, with an average ship age reduction from 6 years in 2024 to 5 years, improving market competitiveness [7] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of recovery, with the BDI index increasing by 5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7] - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of $47 million, $60 million, and $74 million respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: $259 million - 2024A: $282 million - 2025E: $346 million - 2026E: $371 million - 2027E: $412 million [6][8] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023A: $21 million - 2024A: $70 million - 2025E: $47 million - 2026E: $60 million - 2027E: $74 million [6][8] - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be 6, 5, and 4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating significant upside potential compared to peers [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][26]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 1888 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The growth is driven by the release of advertising inventory and AI in the advertising sector, strong performance in gaming, and double-digit growth in the fintech business [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Delta Force," with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets. The marketing services segment is also projected to grow rapidly, benefiting from AI enhancements and increased advertising opportunities [5][21]. - The fintech and enterprise services segment is expected to grow by 10%, primarily driven by payment services and the expansion of e-commerce commissions through WeChat [21][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q3 2025, Tencent's total revenue is projected to be 1888 billion yuan, with a breakdown of: - Gaming revenue at 603 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue at 357 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year - Fintech and enterprise services revenue at 584 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [4][5][21]. Profitability Metrics - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to reach 735 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 667 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% growth. The Non-IFRS net profit margin is projected at 35.4% [4][8][29]. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: The gaming segment is expected to see a 16% increase in revenue, driven by the success of "Delta Force" and stable growth from existing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][19]. - **Marketing Services**: The marketing services segment is anticipated to grow by 19%, supported by AI-driven enhancements and increased advertising opportunities across platforms like WeChat [5][16]. - **Fintech and Enterprise Services**: This segment is projected to grow by 10%, with significant contributions from payment services and the expansion of WeChat's e-commerce capabilities [21][23]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that Tencent has substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI integration, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. The expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2593 billion yuan, 2979 billion yuan, and 3374 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward adjustment of 1% for each year [23][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Mengniu Dairy [2][6]. Core Views - The bottom of the stock has emerged, indicating potential for future growth despite current industry challenges [1][3]. - The dairy industry is currently experiencing low sentiment, but signs of recovery are anticipated, particularly with a projected inflection point for milk prices in Q1 2026 [10][12]. - The company is expected to resume growth in 2026 after two years of revenue decline, with significant profit elasticity anticipated as market conditions improve [13][14]. Financial Summary - Current stock price is HK$14.43 with a target price of HK$27.60, indicating a potential upside [2]. - Market capitalization stands at HK$56.33 billion (US$7.25 billion) [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb 82.55 billion, Rmb 85.81 billion, and Rmb 89.90 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.9%, +4.0%, and +4.8% [14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be Rmb 4.03 billion, Rmb 4.95 billion, and Rmb 5.35 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 22.9% and 8.0% in 2026 and 2027 [14]. Industry Insights - The overall sales momentum of dairy products remains weak, particularly in the ambient milk market, while low-temperature products show more stability [3][11]. - The liquid milk business saw a revenue decline of 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with expectations of continued pressure in H2 2025 [11][4]. - The reduction in dairy cow inventory is expected to lead to a rise in raw milk prices, positively impacting profitability for both upstream and downstream segments [12][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Hansoh Pharmaceutical, indicating an expectation of outperforming the market in the next 12-18 months [15]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharmaceutical has entered into a licensing agreement with Roche for HS-20110 (CDH17 ADC), which includes an upfront payment of USD80 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD1.45 billion, along with royalties on product sales [5][6]. - The company anticipates significant growth in milestone revenues and out-licensing opportunities, with management raising the full-year revenue guidance to mid-to-high double-digit growth [6][7]. - Revenue from innovative drugs is projected to exceed CNY10 billion in 2025, with innovative drug revenue likely surpassing 80% of total revenue [6][7]. - The core product Aumolertinib is expected to achieve sales exceeding CNY6 billion in 2025, with peak sales potential reaching CNY8 billion [7]. Summary by Sections Licensing Agreement - Hansoh has licensed HS-20110 (CDH17 ADC) to Roche, receiving an upfront payment of USD80 million and up to USD1.45 billion in milestone payments tied to development and commercialization [5][6]. Revenue Growth - The company’s milestone revenues for the first half of 2025 have significantly exceeded expectations, prompting an upward revision of the revenue guidance [6]. - Combined milestone and upfront payments are projected to exceed CNY2.2 billion [6]. Product Pipeline - Aumolertinib has received approval for four indications, with anticipated sales growth and further approvals expected to solidify its market position [7]. - The early-stage pipeline includes innovative molecules like EGFR/cMET ADC and CDH6 ADC, which present out-licensing opportunities [6].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 361 度（01361.HK） 25Q3 流水点评：超品店开店加速，户外品牌 ONEWAY 焕新亮相 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,423 | 10,074 | 11,377 | 12,653 | 13,990 | | 同比(%) | 21.01 | 19.59 | 12.94 | 11.22 | 10.57 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 961.43 | 1,148.62 | 1,304.14 | 1,457.57 | 1,616.25 | | 同比(%) | 28.68 | 19.47 | 13.54 | 11.76 | 10.89 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.51 | 9.63 | 8.48 | 7.59 | 6. ...

证券研究报告 中国财险 (2328 HK) 港股通 业绩预增：前三季度净利润同比增长 40%~60% 2025 年 10 月 17 日│中国香港 保险 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 17 日│中国香港 | 保险 | 目标价(港币): | 21.00 | | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 于明汇* | 联系人 | SAC No. S0570124070107 yuminghui@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 10 月 16 日) | 18.78 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 417,719 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 444.75 | | 52 周价格范 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 德昌电机控股 (Deka Motor Holdings) [6][12]. Core Insights - 德昌电机控股 has unique advantages in developing humanoid robot components, driven by its strong position in the automotive motor sector and the rapid growth of data center liquid cooling systems [2][30]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with projections of $281 million, $322 million, and $355 million for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 15%, and 10% [14][15]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 德昌电机控股 are as follows: - 2025: $3,648 million - 2026: $3,751 million - 2027: $4,097 million - 2028: $4,476 million - Gross profit and net profit forecasts are: - Gross profit for 2025: $843 million, with a gross margin of 23% - Net profit for 2025: $263 million, with a net margin of 7.2% [4][15][26]. Company Overview - 德昌电机控股's main business segments include automotive motors (84% of revenue) and industrial motors (16%) [15][19]. - The company has a stable revenue and profit growth history, with a net profit of approximately $263 million for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 15% increase year-on-year [24][26]. Humanoid Robot Development Advantages - The company possesses significant capabilities in humanoid robot components, including actuators and joints, leveraging its expertise in motor design and manufacturing [30][34]. - 德昌电机控股's joint ventures with 上海机电 (Shanghai Electric) enhance its channel and component capabilities in the humanoid robot sector [50][54]. Data Center Liquid Cooling Business - The rapid development of data center liquid cooling is expected to drive growth in 德昌电机控股's pump business, with products like CDU and DTC pumps enhancing cooling efficiency [56][58]. Automotive Small Motor Market - The ASP (Average Selling Price) of small motors in electric vehicles is projected to have a 50% growth potential compared to traditional fuel vehicles, driven by advancements in various automotive systems [60][66]. - The company aims to diversify its customer base in the automotive sector, which has been heavily reliant on foreign clients, to improve revenue growth [66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with a forecasted increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in an estimated net profit of 375-428 billion yuan [8] - The company benefits from both underwriting and investment performance, with underwriting profit in the first half of 2025 reaching 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% [8][3] - The implementation of "reporting and operation in one" for non-auto insurance is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational efficiency [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 478.83 billion yuan in 2023 to 638.95 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.49% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 24.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 52.76 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 6.70% [3] - The book value per share (BVPS) is forecasted to increase from 10.40 yuan in 2023 to 17.73 yuan in 2027 [3] Underwriting and Investment Performance - The company reported a total premium growth of 3.6% in the first half of 2025, with non-auto insurance premiums accounting for 55.4% of total premiums [3] - The combined cost ratio for auto insurance improved to 94.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting efficiency [3][13] - The investment portfolio saw a significant increase, with stock investments growing by 64% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [8][3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [4]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler market in China is characterized by steady sales growth and high ownership rates, with a projected CAGR of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024. Despite a 9.09% decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments, sales are expected to rebound, reaching approximately 52 million units by 2025 [2][36]. - The company has established a strong presence in the high-end electric bicycle market through its LYVA brand, which focuses on premium electric-assisted bicycles and has expanded into 46 countries since its registration in 2022 [3][46]. - The company has a diversified product matrix covering various market segments, supported by a robust manufacturing base across multiple regions in China [3][49]. Company Overview - The company has undergone a strategic transformation from a technology pioneer to an ecosystem leader, with significant milestones achieved since its inception in 1996 [11][12]. - The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the actual controllers holding over 65% of the shares, ensuring stable management [15]. - The core management team possesses extensive experience in the electric two-wheeler industry, driving innovation and international expansion [19]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 2.378 billion CNY in 2020 to 5.083 billion CNY in 2023, with a net profit increase from 40 million CNY to 146 million CNY during the same period [21]. - Despite a slight revenue decline in 2024 to 5.072 billion CNY, the company maintains a resilient profit margin, with a gross margin of 13.11% and a net margin of 2.30% [24][27]. - The electric bicycle segment remains the primary revenue driver, contributing over 40% of total income, with a projected revenue of 3.017 billion CNY in 2024 [27]. Market Dynamics - The domestic electric two-wheeler market is experiencing a dual structure, with traditional electric vehicles consolidating while the electric-assisted bicycle market remains fragmented and competitive [40]. - The company has seen a significant increase in export performance, with export revenue reaching 41.388 billion CNY in 2024, marking a 29.11% year-on-year growth [43]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on enhancing its core competencies through technological advancements, including liquid cooling systems and digital battery management, which are expected to drive product durability and performance [56]. - A comprehensive online and offline sales strategy has been implemented, with a significant presence in both e-commerce and traditional retail channels, contributing to robust sales growth [52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][18]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast downward due to a slow recovery in same-store sales, maintaining a neutral rating with a target price reduced to HKD 2.32, reflecting a potential upside of 13.7% [6][18]. - Same-store sales for the third quarter showed declines, but there are initial signs of recovery, particularly in the "Tai Er" brand, which has seen improvements in major cities [6][19]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network and upgrading its "Tai Er" model, which is expected to drive sales recovery in the latter half of the year [6][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly reduced to RMB 5,553 million, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 143 million [5][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 0.10, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [5][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.8 times, down from earlier estimates [5][19]. Store Performance - As of the end of September, the total number of stores was 686, with a net decrease of 43 stores primarily due to the closure of underperforming locations [6][19]. - The "Tai Er" brand has implemented a new operational model, with 106 upgraded restaurants as of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by the end of 2025 [6][19]. Sales Metrics - The average daily sales for the third quarter showed declines of 9.3% for "Tai Er," 19.1% for "Song Hot Pot," and 14.8% for "Jiu Mao Jiu," although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [6][19]. - The table turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, indicating slight improvements in operational efficiency [6][19].