Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The strategic cooperation agreement between the company and Yaoshi Bang aims to explore the application of intelligent robots in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on areas such as research, warehousing, distribution, retail, and medication services [2] - The company has demonstrated strong generalization capabilities in its robots, which can adapt to various tasks in the pharmaceutical environment, including sorting and transporting medications [3] - The increasing deployment of humanoid robots in various industries is expected to accelerate their mass production and commercialization [4] Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 4.96 billion, 6.73 billion, and 8.97 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-sales ratios of 46, 34, and 25 [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be a loss of 43.49 million, with a turnaround expected in 2026, achieving a profit of 1.15 million, and further increasing to 34.54 million in 2027 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of 0.11 in 2025 to a profit of 0.09 in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target price has been raised due to the inclusion of IBI363 in the valuation model, with an estimated peak sales potential of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028 [2][7]. - The company plans to initiate a Phase III registration study for IBI363 in squamous NSCLC patients who have failed prior PD-(L)1 therapy, having received breakthrough therapy designation from CDE [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 6,206 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an estimated net profit of RMB 751 million, growing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months, indicating the drug's potential effectiveness in a challenging treatment landscape [7][9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant unmet need in the second-line treatment for I/O resistant NSCLC patients, with current therapies showing an ORR of less than 20% and median PFS/OS of less than 4 months/12 months [7][10]. - The global sales for PD-(L)1 drugs are projected to exceed USD 40 billion in 2024, underscoring the substantial market opportunity for effective therapies like IBI363 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current closing price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early clinical data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target market for IBI363 is characterized as a "blue ocean" due to limited existing treatment options for first-line I/O resistant NSCLC patients [2][7]. - The report projects that IBI363 could achieve peak sales of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028, based on a conservative estimate of capturing around 10% of the post-PD-(L)1 treatment market with a 40% success rate [7][10]. - The financial forecasts show substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues increasing from RMB 6,206 million in 2023 to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 6,206 million in 2023, RMB 9,422 million in 2024, RMB 11,782 million in 2025, RMB 14,231 million in 2026, and RMB 17,071 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.2%, 51.8%, 25.1%, 20.8%, and 20.0% respectively [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 751 million, and further increasing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the EGFR wild-type non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months [7][9]. - The safety profile of IBI363 is reported to be manageable, with the most common grade 3 adverse events being joint pain and rash [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 188.00 [9][10] Core Insights - The company has accelerated its product launch pace since March, introducing new products and IPs that are expected to contribute positively to growth in 2025 [3][4] - The establishment of the "Blokus System" creates competitive barriers through a standardized building block system, extensive patent layout, and a large, continuously expanding high-quality IP matrix [3][4] - The company aims for growth through a comprehensive approach targeting all demographics, price points, and global markets, indicating a clear growth trajectory [3][4] Summary by Sections Product Development - The company has launched several new products in its main product line, including various iterations of popular IPs such as Kamen Rider, Naruto, Ultraman, and Transformers [4] - The introduction of the Starry Edition series at a price point of HKD 9.9 has shown strong sales performance, expected to contribute significantly to 2025's revenue [4] - New products targeting adult fans and female demographics have also been introduced, indicating potential for market expansion [4] International Expansion - The company reported a 518% year-on-year increase in overseas sales revenue, reaching RMB 64 million, with significant contributions from Asia (excluding China) and North America [5] - Participation in international toy exhibitions has helped the company connect with global fans, and popular IPs have received licensing in multiple regions [5] Financial Projections and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating adjusted net profits of RMB 1.128 billion, RMB 1.772 billion, and RMB 2.564 billion respectively [6] - The target price is based on a 36x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's strong competitive position and growth potential [6][10] - Revenue projections show significant growth, with expected revenues of RMB 4.499 billion in 2025, up from RMB 2.241 billion in 2024 [8][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on high-quality growth through channel optimization and product offerings, with expectations for same-store sales to turn positive in May [1][2]. - The company is enhancing its overseas operations with localized strategies and optimizing direct store expenses, which is expected to drive revenue growth [3][4]. - Short-term profit fluctuations are anticipated due to the ramp-up phase of high-growth businesses, but improvements in operational models are expected to enhance profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - The company is adjusting its product offerings to better match market demands, focusing on high-quality products in higher-tier markets and cost-effective options in lower-tier markets [2]. - The closure of underperforming stores and the opening of flagship "IP Land" stores are part of the strategy to drive growth, with expectations for same-store sales to stabilize [2]. Overseas Operations - The company aims to increase its store count by 500-600 locations this year, with improvements in same-store sales in North America due to cost optimization strategies [3]. - The establishment of a product development team in North America is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 29.9 billion, RMB 37.3 billion, and RMB 45.7 billion respectively, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][7]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of RMB 20.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.83% [7][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 66.40 [9][14]. Core Insights - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) sector is experiencing significant growth, with the company reporting a 71% year-over-year increase in order reserves, totaling USD 991 million by the end of 2024 [5][4]. - The company is advancing its global dual-plant strategy, with production facilities in both domestic and overseas locations being developed in an orderly manner [3][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% from 2024 to 2026, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 1.62 billion, RMB 2.17 billion, and RMB 2.58 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][14]. Summary by Sections ADC Industry Development - The ADC industry is witnessing a surge in commercialization and late-stage clinical production demand, driven by recent FDA approvals of new ADCs and increased global clinical registrations by multinational corporations [4]. - Domestic ADC molecules are leading a new wave of innovation, with significant participation in major conferences and substantial business development activities [4]. Order and Growth Momentum - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 194 projects (up 36% year-over-year) and 15 Phase III clinical projects as of the end of 2024 [5]. - The completion of the Singapore facility is expected to attract more overseas project orders [5]. Global Dual-Plant Strategy - The new production facility in XBCM2 L2 is set to produce 60 batches of 2,000L scale antibody intermediates and 80 batches of 1,000L scale conjugated solutions annually, enhancing commercial production capacity [6]. - Expansion plans in Wuxi and the successful construction of the Singapore facility are anticipated to begin receiving overseas orders by the end of 2025 [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach RMB 58.3 billion, RMB 76.1 billion, and RMB 94.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 16.2 billion, RMB 21.7 billion, and RMB 25.8 billion [14][18]. - The report maintains a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45.92 for 2025, reflecting the strong demand in the ADC sector and the company's capacity expansion [7][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company, Bluku, is the leading player in China's building block character toy market, achieving explosive growth through product transformation and channel expansion, with a GMV of approximately 1.8 billion CNY in 2023, capturing 30.3% of the building block character toy market share [1][2][13]. - The building block character toy market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 41.3% from 2023 to 2028, with the market size projected to exceed 32.5 billion CNY by 2028 [2]. - The company's success is driven by a robust IP matrix, including over 50 popular licensed IPs and proprietary IPs, alongside a strong focus on cost-effective product development and deep channel penetration [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Bluku is recognized as China's largest building block character toy manufacturer, with a revenue structure heavily reliant on building block character toys, which accounted for 98.2% of revenue in 2024 [1][17]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 89% from 2021 to 2024, driven by the expansion of its distribution channels and the popularity of its IPs [30]. Market Analysis - The building block character toy market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of 77% in 2023, and Bluku leading with a 30.3% share [2]. - The global building block toy market is dominated by companies like Bandai and LEGO, indicating a competitive landscape that local companies must navigate [2]. Growth Strategy - Bluku's growth strategy includes leveraging its IP portfolio, which features successful franchises like Ultraman and Transformers, and enhancing its product offerings through technological innovation and user engagement [3][4]. - The company has established a comprehensive distribution network, with 511 distributors covering major cities and over 80% of lower-tier cities, resulting in a significant increase in offline sales [3][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Bluku indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 3.91 billion CNY in 2025, 5.61 billion CNY in 2026, and 7.40 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 43%, and 32% respectively [4][9]. - The company's net profit is projected to turn positive by 2024, driven by its focus on high-margin building block character toys and effective cost management strategies [51].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1][8] Core Views - In May 2025, Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached a record high of over 138,000 units, with optimistic expectations for annual sales and operating performance due to the launch of several key models [3][8] - The report anticipates Geely's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 16.3 billion RMB, 18.2 billion RMB, and 23.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.62 RMB, 1.81 RMB, and 2.35 RMB [8][10] - The report highlights a 46% year-on-year increase in May sales, with total sales reaching 235,000 units, including 138,000 new energy vehicles, which represents a 178% increase in pure electric vehicle sales and a 76% increase in plug-in hybrid sales [8][10] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 147.965 billion RMB in 2022 to 321.801 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34% [7][10] - Gross profit is expected to increase from 20.896 billion RMB in 2022 to 51.810 billion RMB in 2025 [7] - Net profit is forecasted to rise significantly from 5.123 billion RMB in 2022 to 16.299 billion RMB in 2025, marking a 222% increase [7][10] - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 22 for 2024, decreasing to 12 for 2025, and further to 11 for 2026 [7][10] Sales Performance - For the first five months of 2025, Geely's total sales reached 1.173 million units, a 49% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 603,000 units [8][10] - The report outlines a sales target of 2.71 million units for 2025, with a specific target of 1.5 million new energy vehicles [8][10] - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, which is expected to enhance sales growth certainty [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing an AI strategic transformation, shifting from tax digitalization and data analysis services to "Data Intelligence" AI [3][28]. - The company is a leader in the invoice platform sector, with significant potential in AI and data elements [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.52 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.84 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.18%, 19.16%, and 16.65% respectively [10][14]. - The net profit for the same period is projected to be -7.87 million, 51.90 million, and 106.69 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 98.43%, 759.27%, and 105.56% respectively [10][14]. - The target price is set at 36.48 HKD based on cautious valuation methods [14]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 526 million RMB in 2022, increasing to 713 million in 2023, followed by a projected decrease to 659 million in 2024, and then growth to 852 million in 2025 [6][10]. - Gross profit margins are expected to improve from 39.96% in 2024 to 48.88% by 2027 [26][34]. - The company has a current market capitalization of 8,133 million HKD and a share price of 36.05 HKD [2][7]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a digital business platform that integrates digital certificates, signatures, big data analysis, AI, and blockchain [18]. - Key business lines include cloud and local deployment of tax digitalization solutions, as well as data-driven analysis services [18][24]. - The company aims to leverage its data assets, which include various transaction vouchers, to enhance its competitive edge [22][24]. AI Strategic Transformation - The new CEO, a former president of a leading AI company, indicates a strong commitment to advancing the company's AI strategy [28]. - The focus will be on building a reliable super data intelligence system to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation in financial marketing and risk control [28]. Market Expansion - The company is entering the data element market, having signed a cooperation agreement to support the establishment of a data resource registration system [29]. - This strategic move aims to facilitate the development and circulation of data elements, transforming data resources into productive assets [29].

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...