Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313 HK) [5][6] Core Views - Shenzhou International is expected to achieve 10%+ revenue growth in 2024 and 2025, driven by stable order growth and capacity expansion [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to continue improving in H2 2024, following a 6 6pct year-over-year increase to 29 0% in H1 2024 [2] - Net profit is projected to grow 27% in 2024, followed by 13% growth in both 2025 and 2026 [5] Revenue and Profit Analysis - H2 2024 revenue is estimated to grow 10%-20% year-over-year, with shipment volume expected to increase by 15%+ [2] - The company's gross margin improved significantly from 22 4% in H1 2023 to 29 0% in H1 2024 [2] - 2024 full-year revenue is expected to grow 10%+, with net profit projected to reach 5 8 billion yuan [5] Order and Customer Analysis - Major customers include Adidas, Uniqlo, Nike, and PUMA, with Adidas and Uniqlo expected to show strong order performance in 2025 [3] - In H1 2024, sales to top four customers accounted for 79% of total revenue, with Adidas sales growing 34% year-over-year [3] - Sportswear category accounted for 71% of H1 2024 sales, showing 8% year-over-year growth [3] Capacity and Production - The company is actively expanding overseas capacity, with Cambodia and Vietnam factories contributing 53% of total output in 2023 [4] - Cambodia's new garment factory reached its planned workforce of 18,000 employees in H1 2024 [4] - The company acquired a Vietnam factory to enhance fabric supply capabilities [4] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit is projected to be 5 8 billion, 6 55 billion, and 7 39 billion yuan respectively [5] - The current price implies a 2025 PE ratio of 12x [5] - EPS is expected to grow from 3 04 yuan in 2024 to 4 91 yuan in 2026 [11] Industry Position - Shenzhou International is the world's largest vertically integrated garment manufacturer [5] - The company maintains strong partnerships with international brands and continues to enhance its competitive advantage through capacity expansion and efficiency improvements [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.77 HKD, based on a 9x PE multiple for 2025 [2][5] Core Views - The company is a global apparel manufacturing giant with nearly 50 years of industry experience, focusing on five core categories: casualwear, sportswear & outdoor wear, denim, intimate wear, and sweaters [1] - The global apparel manufacturing industry is expected to see increased market share for leading companies due to factors like rising quality demands, cost pressures, and trade frictions [1] - The company has a wide moat, including strong customer relationships, a global manufacturing platform, and excellent R&D capabilities supporting a co-creation business model [2] - Future growth is expected to be driven by vertical integration, automation, and reduced exposure to US-China trade risks [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 2,476 million USD in 2024E to 3,167 million USD in 2026E, with a CAGR of 13.1% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from 204 million USD in 2024E to 269 million USD in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14.8% [3] - EPS is projected to grow from 0.07 USD in 2024E to 0.09 USD in 2026E [3] Industry Analysis - The global apparel market has shown steady growth, with the sportswear segment growing at a higher rate (4.3% CAGR from 2010-2023) [66] - The apparel manufacturing industry is highly fragmented, with leading companies expected to gain market share due to vertical integration and cost advantages [66][68] - Companies with vertical integration capabilities tend to have better profitability due to cost control, faster response times, and stronger R&D capabilities [71] Competitive Advantages - The company has deep relationships with global apparel brands, with some partnerships spanning 10-30 years [91] - It has a global manufacturing footprint across Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, with 82% of employees located overseas [103] - The company's co-creation model with customers enhances product innovation and strengthens customer relationships [90] - Cross-category sales have been effective in expanding business opportunities [90] Future Outlook - The company is advancing vertical integration and automation, with plans to establish a modern center in Vietnam for advanced equipment development by 2024 [2] - The proportion of US revenue has been declining, which is expected to further reduce trade friction risks [2] - The company's focus on sportswear and outdoor wear is expected to drive future growth, with this category's revenue share increasing from 10% in 2017 to 22% in 2023 [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors with a target price of HKD 80.00 [7][11]. Core Insights - XPeng Motors achieved record deliveries of 30,000 vehicles in November, with expectations for Q4 deliveries to reach new highs [1][3]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 10.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25% [1]. - The GAAP net loss for Q3 was RMB 1.8 billion, a reduction of 53% year-on-year, while the NON-GAAP net loss was RMB 1.5 billion, down 45% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 reached 15.3%, marking a record high and an improvement for five consecutive quarters [2]. Summary by Sections Delivery and Sales Performance - In November, XPeng delivered 30,000 vehicles, driven by increased deliveries of the P7+ model and improved production capacity [3]. - The company expects total Q4 deliveries to be between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles, contributing to positive free cash flow for the quarter [3]. Product Development and Market Expansion - XPeng plans to launch at least four new models in 2025, including its first range-extended vehicle, which is expected to enhance its market position [4]. - The company has seen a 70% quarter-on-quarter increase in overseas sales in Q3, with plans to expand into over 90% of the new energy market outside North America by 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains sales forecasts for 2024-2026 at 200,000, 430,000, and 490,000 vehicles respectively, with revenue projections of RMB 45.3 billion, RMB 85.6 billion, and RMB 97.7 billion [5][6]. - The target price adjustment to HKD 80.00 reflects a slight change due to currency fluctuations, while maintaining the valuation multiples for the sales and technology service segments [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported its FY25 Q3 operational data, which met expectations, showing a slight year-on-year decline in sales but a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter [5][6]. - Online sales outperformed offline sales during the quarter, with a notable double-digit growth during the Double Eleven shopping festival, leading to an increase in the proportion of online direct sales to 40% [6][9]. - The inventory level remains stable, with a healthy structure, although discount rates have deepened temporarily due to ongoing inventory clearance [7][9]. - The new CEO of NIKE is expected to drive a new product innovation cycle, which could positively impact the company's retail business [8][9]. - The company focuses on high-quality growth in the sports apparel retail sector, leveraging strong partnerships with major brands like NIKE and Adidas [9]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 2.83 - Market capitalization (billion HKD): 175.49 - 52-week high/low (HKD): 6.28/2.11 [3] Financial Performance - FY25 Q3 sales showed a year-on-year decline in the single digits, but improved from a 10-20% decline in the previous quarter [5][6]. - The company expects net profits for FY25-FY27 to be 13.2 billion, 16.7 billion, and 19.3 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 [9][11]. Sales and Inventory - The company’s direct sales area decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, with a high single-digit decline in the number of stores, reflecting an optimization of store structure [6][9]. - The inventory turnover ratio is maintained between 4-5 months, with 70-80% of inventory being new products [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in the retail environment and brand recovery, maintaining a positive long-term growth trend [9].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 滔搏 (06110 HK) due to expected performance recovery post inventory improvement and organizational adjustments [5] - FY2025Q3 saw a mid-single-digit decline in year-over-year (YoY) sales, with retail performing slightly better than wholesale and online outperforming offline [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1 33 billion 1 53 billion and 1 81 billion for FY2024-2026 respectively with current P/E ratios of 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x [5] - Sales performance improved in December compared to Q3 with expectations of further improvement in main brand channels and product performance [5] Financial Performance - FY2025Q3 saw a slight improvement in offline foot traffic decline compared to H1 with online sales accounting for 40% of total sales up from 30% in FY2025H1 [5] - Discounts deepened in FY2025Q3 with offline discounts increasing while online discounts improved partially offsetting the negative impact of higher online sales proportion [5] - Inventory-to-sales ratio is expected to improve by the end of FY2025 with current ratios at 4-5 months slightly up due to seasonal and stocking differences [5] Operational Strategy - The company is accelerating the淘汰 of underperforming offline stores while increasing the average store size and implementing integrated management across all channels [6] - Online the company is expanding its presence on platform e-commerce and building a content e-commerce advantage through a matrix-style live streaming system [6] - The company is坚持全域货品管理 including broadening inventory circulation and implementing precise price management across different channels to improve overall retail efficiency [6] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for FY2023A FY2024A FY2025E FY2026E and FY2027E is projected at 27 073 million 28 933 million 26 710 million 28 309 million and 30 448 million respectively [6] - Net profit for the same periods is projected at 1 837 million 2 213 million 1 327 million 1 532 million and 1 810 million respectively [6] - Gross margin is expected to be 41 7% 41 8% 38 6% 40 2% and 40 7% for the respective fiscal years [6] - Net margin is projected at 6 8% 7 6% 5 0% 5 4% and 5 9% respectively [6] - ROE is expected to be 18 7% 22 5% 13 5% 15 6% and 18 4% for the respective fiscal years [6] - EPS (diluted) is projected at 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 2 and 0 3 respectively [6] - P/E ratios are expected to be 8 8x 7 3x 12 2x 10 6x and 9 0x respectively [6] - P/B ratios are projected at 1 7x 1 6x 1 6x 1 6x and 1 6x respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% [5][19]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.2813 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.8%. The adjusted net profit was 1.9281 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-over-year [4]. - The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, with a total of 7,420 stores globally as of September 30, 2024, including 4,250 domestic stores and 2,936 overseas stores, marking increases of 448 and 623 stores respectively year-over-year [4]. - The overseas market's revenue contribution has increased, with overseas revenue reaching 4.543 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year growth of 41.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.5226 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 19.3%, and an adjusted net profit of 686.2 million yuan, up 6.9% year-over-year [4]. - The company’s domestic revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.738 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.0% [4]. Store Expansion - The company opened 859 new stores in the first three quarters of 2024, nearing its target of net new stores between 900 and 1,100 for the year [4]. - The number of TOP TOY stores reached 234, with a year-over-year increase of 112 stores, indicating a continued rapid expansion [4]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin improved to 44.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, supported by the higher revenue share from the overseas direct sales market, which accounted for 19.9% of total revenue [4]. - The overseas direct sales market's revenue grew significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 55.4% in Q3 2024 [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.66 billion yuan, 3.33 billion yuan, and 4.16 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.12 yuan, 2.65 yuan, and 3.31 yuan [5].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3][27] Core Views - The company's Q3 FY2025 sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter [3][5] - Online channel performance was better than offline, with online sales expected to grow by double digits in Q3, accounting for 40% of total sales [4][5] - The company aims to achieve inventory improvement by the end of the fiscal year, with deeper discounts expected in Q3 due to inventory clearance efforts [4][6] - The company's strong cash generation capability supports a high dividend payout, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 99% and an expected full-year payout ratio of 100% [4][26] - The company's main brand, Adidas, performed well in Greater China, with high single-digit revenue growth in the first three quarters, and the company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% [4][26] - Nike, another key brand, is in a transition phase, with potential recovery expected in FY2026 under new leadership and product innovation [4][26] - Non-core brands in the outdoor sector remain highly competitive [26] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's Q3 FY2025 total sales declined by mid-single digits year-over-year, with a 2.1% quarter-over-quarter and 4.4% year-over-year reduction in gross sales area of directly operated stores [3][5] - The company expects to achieve inventory improvement by the end of the fiscal year, with deeper discounts in Q3 [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts, with expected net profits of 1.44 billion, 1.79 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, representing year-over-year changes of -35.1%, +24.5%, and +7.6% [27] - The reasonable valuation range is 3.8-4.0 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE ratio of 15-16x [27] Brand Performance - Adidas: In Q3 FY2024, Adidas reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth at constant exchange rates, with a 9% growth in Greater China excluding Yeezy. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% [16][26] - Nike: In Q1 FY2025, Nike's revenue declined by 10% year-over-year, with a 16% decline in direct sales in Greater China. The company withdrew its full-year guidance due to CEO transition but expects better performance in the second half of FY2025 [13][26] Market and Industry Outlook - The company's sales decline and store closures are primarily due to weak macroeconomic demand and reduced offline foot traffic [4][26] - The company expects channel adjustments to stabilize in the next fiscal year, with potential growth driven by inventory health and market environment improvements [4][26] - The outdoor sector remains highly competitive, with non-core brands maintaining strong performance [26]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 12 16 年 月 日 滔搏（06110.HK） FY2025Q3 销售下滑中单位数，推进库存去化 事件：滔搏发布季度经营公告，FY2025Q3（2024 年 9-11 月）公司全渠道销 售额（零售流水及批发发货金额，含税）同比下滑中单位数，直营门店毛销售面 积环比/同比减少 2.1%/4.4%。 面对客流波动，FY2025Q3 线下销售仍有一定压力。Q3 公司整体销售下滑中单 位数，降幅较 FY2025Q2 收窄明显，我们预计线下销售下滑幅度或大于整体平均 水平（该趋势同上半财年保持一致），主要原因在于FY2025Q3整体消费环境以及 线下客流呈现波动复苏态势，基于此我们预计公司线下门店销售压力较大。 从门店面积来看：根据公司披露截至 9 月末门店毛销售面积环比 8 月末下降 2.1%，较 FY2024 同期减少 4.4%，销售面积的下降主要原因为门店数量的减 少，根据公司此前中报披露，FY2025H1 线下直营门店净关 331 家至 5813 家，我 们预计 Q3 单店销售面积或有增长，当前公司一方面持续对低效亏损店铺进行优 化，另一方面也是 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the automotive-grade SoC market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 30% from 2022 to 2028, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy and intelligent driving technologies [2][3]. - The company has a strong technological foundation and a forward-looking layout in high-performance SoC and cross-domain computing, with significant R&D investments ensuring its competitive edge [2]. - The company aims to enhance its market share through a self-controlled and open ecosystem, collaborating with major automotive manufacturers to reduce development costs and improve product customization [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Intelligent Driving Chip Quality Manufacturers - The company has established itself as a key player in the automotive-grade SoC market, with a focus on high-performance and cross-domain SoC solutions [98]. - The management team possesses extensive industry experience, with the CEO having over 20 years in the semiconductor sector [104]. - Revenue has shown rapid growth, with a significant increase in the contribution from the autonomous driving business [108]. 2. Single Vehicle Intelligence and Road Coordination - The report highlights the ongoing trends of automotive intelligence, connectivity, and platformization, which are expected to drive the adoption of autonomous driving technologies [125]. - The penetration rate of autonomous driving is projected to rise significantly, with favorable policies and advancements in sensing technologies [126]. 3. Company: Innovation-Driven Development of Domestic SoC - The company has launched various high-performance SoC products and autonomous driving solutions, establishing partnerships with numerous automotive OEMs [98][99]. - The company plans to utilize IPO proceeds primarily for R&D in intelligent automotive SoCs and software development, aiming to enhance its commercial capabilities and global presence [118][121]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 5.5 billion, 12.1 billion, and 19.2 billion CNY, respectively, with a focus on improving profitability despite initial losses [3]. - The report employs a P/S valuation method, indicating a favorable valuation compared to comparable companies [3].