证券研究报告 非银金融 | 多元金融 金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com | | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 5.18/2.06 | 营业收入（百万元） | 33,675 | 38,431 | 47,621 | 47,969 | 49,959 | | | 同比增长率（%） | 5.49% | 14.12% | 23.91% | 0.73% | 4.15% | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in quarterly performance, with synthetic flavor contributions being notable [1] - The company's main products experienced a decline in average selling prices, but synthetic flavor sales saw substantial growth [7] - The company is actively advancing key project constructions and promoting lithium extraction technology [7] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to the weak market conditions for main products, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 275 million, 326 million, and 375 million respectively [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.966 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%, while net profit decreased by 10.18% to 227 million [1][8] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 765 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.81%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.54% [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.9%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points but an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.343 billion, 3.775 billion, and 4.188 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13% for each year [3][15] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.43, 1.69, and 1.94 respectively [8][15] Key Financial Ratios - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.9% in the latest period to 12.9% by 2027 [4][15] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decrease from 36.8% to 36.3% over the same period [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its IP content, creating new growth momentum in the market [1][5] - The company has established a balanced revenue structure across its three main categories: toys, infant products, and film, with respective revenues of 1.026 billion, 1.212 billion, and 396 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 37.77%, 44.64%, and 14.58% of total revenue [3][4] - The company is focusing on creating high-quality content to build a robust IP matrix, which includes popular titles such as "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" and "Armor Warriors" [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 8.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.1 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.746 billion, 2.870 billion, and 3.074 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 153 million, 235 million, and 311 million yuan [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.10, 0.16, and 0.21 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 85.8, 55.8, and 42.2 [7][9] Product Development - The company is actively developing new products under its "Play Point Unlimited" brand strategy, including collaborations with other companies to create popular IP-based toys [4][5] - The "Didi Le" series has gained popularity, appealing to Generation Z and millennials due to its collectible and playful nature [4] AI Integration - The company has introduced AI-powered plush toys and is enhancing its supply chain capabilities to support flexible product offerings [5]

查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | | 07 日 | 05 | | | 2025 | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 15.17 | | | | | | | | | 年 最 | / | 最 | 高 | | | | | | 内 | | | 一 | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 121,428.18 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 113,079.91 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance with a total operating revenue of 134.51 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.01% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.86 billion yuan, up 3.11% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and enhancing its cloud computing strategy, with significant investments in technology innovation, particularly in AI, satellite, and quantum technologies [4][5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 134.51 billion yuan, with service revenue of 124.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.6% [3] - The overall expense ratio remained stable at 19.2%, with a decrease in sales expense ratio by 0.4 percentage points, while management and R&D expenses increased by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [3] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be 541.27 billion yuan, with projected earnings per share of 0.39 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20.3 times based on the closing price of 7.91 yuan per share on May 7, 2025 [5][7] Business Growth - The mobile communication business is developing steadily, with mobile users reaching 430 million, an increase of 4.95 million in the quarter, and 5G network users reaching 270 million, with a penetration rate of 62.0% [8] - The fixed-line and smart home businesses are also showing good growth, with broadband users at 200 million and smart home revenue increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with IDC revenue reaching 9.5 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, and significant growth in smart revenue (151.6%), video network revenue (58.4%), satellite communication revenue (37.2%), and quantum revenue (81.1%) [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is implementing a strategy of "industry extension + product extension" to support the green transformation of the industry [3]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million yuan, down 27.53% [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown by industry for 2024 shows semiconductor display revenue at 342 million yuan (up 26.38%), integrated circuit revenue at 1.002 billion yuan (down 19.95%), new energy revenue at 93 million yuan (down 68.15%), and other industries at 12 million yuan (up 64.25%) [2]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 174 million, 206 million, and 241 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 45%, 19%, and 17% [4][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.790 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 23.34% compared to 2024 [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.17 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.62 yuan by 2027 [5][4]. Business Segments - The green factory system is expected to generate 969 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 27.11% [11]. - Revenue from equipment and key components is projected to be 451 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 35.12% [11]. - The electronic chemicals segment is anticipated to achieve revenue of 29 million yuan in 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 104.43% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.821 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.84%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.053 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.75%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.084 billion yuan, up 8.82% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.15%, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, which is an increase of 11.07% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items for the same quarter was 287 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 47.51% [4][6] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, with a net profit of 247 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.02% year-on-year [4][6] Revenue Growth - The company's revenue growth is driven by strong overseas demand, with a 21.68% increase in international business. Domestic business, however, saw a decline of 4.42% due to a cautious consumer environment [9] - In Q1 2025, overseas business continued to grow at approximately 15.77%, while domestic business declined by about 4.94% [9] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.82 percentage points in 2024, with specific declines in kitchen appliances and home appliances. However, the overall expense ratio improved significantly, leading to a 4.75% year-on-year increase in operating profit [9] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved by 0.50 percentage points, contributing to a 16.59% year-on-year increase in operating profit [9] Future Outlook - The company aims to establish a diversified small home appliance technology service system, providing comprehensive solutions to meet consumer demands. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.196 billion yuan, 1.332 billion yuan, and 1.460 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.4, 8.4, and 7.7 times [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 127.839 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.422 billion yuan, up 38.02% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 12.750 billion yuan, also reflecting a 38.03% increase year-on-year [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company experienced rapid revenue growth driven by both C-end and B-end business segments. The C-end smart home revenue grew by 17.4% year-on-year, with overseas e-commerce sales increasing by over 50%. The domestic high-end brands "COLMO + Toshiba" saw sales growth exceeding 55% [11]. - The B-end business, focusing on commercial and industrial solutions, reported a revenue increase of 25.3%, with the new energy and industrial technology segment achieving a revenue of 11.1 billion yuan, up 45% year-on-year [11]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company optimized its expense ratio significantly, with a gross margin decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 11.635 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.43% year-on-year growth [11]. - The net profit growth rate was notably higher than the operating profit due to favorable changes in foreign exchange gains and a significant decrease in financial expense ratio by 2.75 percentage points to -2.22% [11]. Future Outlook - The company has established a dual focus on both ToC and ToB business models, aiming for sustainable growth through diversified product offerings and services. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 42.588 billion yuan, 46.806 billion yuan, and 52.134 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.35, 12.15, and 10.91 [11].

青鸟消防（002960.SZ） 短期业绩承压，工业与海外业务增长亮眼 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 伐谋-中小盘信息更新 | 日期 | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 11.29 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 15.38/8.76 | | 总市值(亿元) | 83.13 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 69.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.36 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 6.19 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 154.07 | 中小盘研究团队 ——中小盘信息更新 | 周佳（分析师） | 张越（分析师） | 赵晨旭（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhoujia@kysec.cn | zhangyue1@kysec.cn | zhaochenxu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070004 | 证书编号：S0790524090003 | 证书编号：S0790124120019 | 2025Q1 业绩短期承压，维持买入评级 公司发布 2025 年一季报，实现营收 8.83 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading crankshaft manufacturer, with new growth avenues opened through its ventures into the new energy and robotics sectors [8]. - The demand for crankshafts is expected to rise due to the increasing popularity of hybrid vehicles, which still require crankshafts despite the rise of pure electric vehicles [8]. - The company has made significant investments in new energy gear technology and robotics, which are anticipated to contribute to future revenue growth [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 1995, the company has established itself as a leader in crankshaft manufacturing, with a product range that includes clutches, precision forgings, gears, and bolts [8][13]. - The company has entered the new energy sector with electric drive gears and is developing robotic reducer products, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification [8][13]. 2. Crankshaft Business Growth - The company has shifted its focus from commercial vehicles to passenger vehicles, capturing significant market share with clients like BYD and Li Auto [8][13]. - The crankshaft production line is expected to reach a capacity of 1 million hybrid crankshafts by May 2025, enhancing the company's performance in this segment [8][13]. 3. New Energy Gear Expansion - The company has invested 408 million yuan in developing new energy electric drive precision gear business, with production expected to start in July 2024 [8][13]. - The company has secured multiple projects with major clients such as BYD and Geely, indicating strong demand for its new energy gear products [8][13]. 4. Robotics Sector Entry - The company has entered the robotics market by acquiring a 35% stake in Changban Robot Technology, leveraging its existing client base and technical expertise [8][13]. - The synergy between its traditional automotive components and new robotics products is expected to provide a competitive advantage [8][13]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 24.34 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.01 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth potential [8][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.47 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for investors [8][13].