Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - Revenue for FY2025Q4 reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations [12] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus [12] Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for FY2025Q4 shows significant growth in various segments: - Taobao and Tmall business revenue increased by 8.7% to RMB 101.37 billion [17] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% to RMB 33.58 billion, driven by strong cross-border business performance [22] - Local life services revenue rose by 10.3% to RMB 16.13 billion, aided by order growth from Gaode and Ele.me [25] - Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 17.7% to RMB 30.13 billion, benefiting from strong AI-related demand [29] - The entertainment segment (Big Entertainment) reported revenue of RMB 5.55 billion, a 12% increase [30] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% due to increased investments in user experience and AI technology [19] - The overall EBITA margin is expected to remain in a recovery phase, with adjustments made to future Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 to RMB 171.16 billion and RMB 188.58 billion, respectively, with an expected Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 210.31 billion for FY2028 [35] - Corresponding P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 12, 11, and 10 times [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16.09 for FY2025, indicating it is relatively cheaper than similar companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group, indicating a positive outlook on the company's future performance [4]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group's revenue for the fiscal year 2024/25 reached 498.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, while net profit increased by 36% to 10.4 billion RMB [1]. - The AIPC business segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the device business (IDG) achieving double-digit revenue growth and a 13% increase in Q4 revenue. Lenovo holds the largest global market share in PCs at 23.7%, widening the gap with the second-largest competitor by 3.6 percentage points [2]. - Non-PC business contributions are rising, with the infrastructure solutions group (ISG) generating 104.8 billion RMB in revenue, a 63% year-on-year increase in Q4, marking the second consecutive quarter of profitability. The solutions and services group (SSG) also saw double-digit revenue growth with an operating profit margin exceeding 21% [2]. - Lenovo is advancing its Super Intelligent Agent Matrix, with a 13% increase in R&D investment for the fiscal year, and R&D personnel now account for 27.8% of the workforce, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for Lenovo Group for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are estimated at 1.665 billion USD, 1.874 billion USD, and 2.068 billion USD, with respective growth rates of 20%, 13%, and 10%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.13, 0.15, and 0.17 USD per share, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.20, 8.17, and 7.41 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 3.77, indicating a potential upside of 18.2% from the current price of HKD 3.19 [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal-fired power price differential is expected to outperform expectations in the first half of the year, and the current dividend yield remains attractive. The target price has been raised due to adjustments in financial forecasts and valuation methods [2][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,262 million - 2024: RMB 54,213 million (22.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 55,711 million (2.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 59,410 million (6.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 65,201 million (9.7% YoY growth) [5][13] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,084 million - 2024: RMB 3,862 million (25.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 4,767 million (23.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 5,670 million (18.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 7,395 million (30.4% YoY growth) [5][13]. Operational Performance - The company's total power generation for January to April remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.3% YoY. Wind and solar power generation saw significant increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively, while coal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to asset sales [6][7]. - The report notes that the company plans to prioritize wind power projects with good grid connection resources before June, which is expected to support stable growth in overall power generation [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the valuation of the company's hydropower assets to 1.9 times the 2025 estimated book value, up from 1.5 times, leading to an increase in the target price to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 [6][9]. - The report also notes a decrease in fuel costs for the coal-fired segment, which is expected to support profit forecasts [6]. Shareholder Confidence - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its future performance. The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 is considered attractive for investors [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 165.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price of HKD 129.40 [1][4][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing competition in the food delivery market, but remains optimistic about Meituan's operational capabilities in this sector. The company is expected to enhance its market share despite the competitive landscape [2][7]. - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 388.9 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [3][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 47.0 billion, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) to RMB 7.58, representing an 8.4% growth compared to the previous year [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: RMB 276.7 billion - 2024: RMB 337.6 billion - 2025E: RMB 388.9 billion - 2026E: RMB 436.1 billion - 2027E: RMB 472.5 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to decline gradually from 25.8% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2027 [3][16]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: RMB 23.3 billion - 2024: RMB 43.8 billion - 2025E: RMB 47.0 billion - 2026E: RMB 60.4 billion - 2027E: RMB 68.7 billion - The net profit growth rate is expected to be particularly high in 2023 at 715.5%, tapering to 13.8% by 2027 [3][16]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: RMB 3.71 - 2024: RMB 7.00 - 2025E: RMB 7.58 - 2026E: RMB 9.73 - 2027E: RMB 11.08 - The EPS is expected to show a significant increase in 2024, followed by more moderate growth in subsequent years [3][16]. - Valuation Metrics: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.0 in 2023 to 10.7 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3][16]. Business Segment Performance - Core Business: - The core local business is expected to generate substantial revenue, with a projected revenue of RMB 283.4 billion in 2025, growing at a rate of 10% year-on-year [10][16]. - New Business: - The new business segment is anticipated to grow at a rate of 22% in 2025, although it is expected to incur losses of approximately RMB 26 billion due to increased investments in overseas markets [7][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan is expected to increase its investment in the food delivery segment to maintain its market share amidst rising competition. The report anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit growth in food delivery order volume [7][10]. - The company is also expanding its international presence, particularly in markets like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, with plans to invest USD 1 billion over the next five years [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tongguan Gold [2][7][47] Core Views - Tongguan Gold has successfully transformed into a gold mining and selection company since 2017, with significant resource endowments and potential for increased reserves and production. The introduction of Zijin Mining as a strategic investor in 2025 is expected to propel the company into a high-growth phase, allowing it to fully benefit from high gold prices [1][7][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongguan Gold was established in 1997 and underwent several transformations before focusing on gold mining in 2017. The company has acquired multiple mining companies to enhance its resource base, including significant acquisitions in Gansu province in 2023 [11][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 1.358 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 22%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 2.270 billion, reflecting a 53% increase. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 561 million, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11.7 [6][48]. Resource Endowment and Growth Potential - As of the end of 2024, the company has a total gold resource of 55 tons with an average grade of 8.27 g/t, positioning it among the top in the industry. The company has significant exploration and development activities planned, with a focus on increasing reserves and production capacity [31][38][39]. Production and Sales Performance - Gold production increased from 0.7 tons in 2017 to 2.5 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 2.8 tons in 2025. The company’s sales revenue from gold mining is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising production and favorable gold prices [43][47]. Strategic Partnerships - The strategic investment from Zijin Mining in 2025 is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market visibility for Tongguan Gold. The partnership includes a metal flow agreement that will provide the company with long-term funding while establishing a collaborative relationship with a leading global mining company [24][26][25]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting HKD 5.6 billion in 2025, HKD 8.0 billion in 2026, and HKD 9.7 billion in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing over the years, indicating a strong growth trajectory [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with operating profit at 10.57 billion, up 102.8%, and adjusted net profit at 10.95 billion, increasing by 46.2% [1][6] - The report expresses long-term optimism regarding the company's domestic core business barriers and growth potential, alongside new growth opportunities from overseas expansion [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 390.78 billion - 2026E: 451.15 billion - 2027E: 513.08 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 26%, 22%, 16%, 15%, and 14% respectively [2][9] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: 23.25 billion - 2024: 43.77 billion - 2025E: 42.79 billion - 2026E: 56.37 billion - 2027E: 70.15 billion - Notable growth of 709% in 2023, followed by 88% in 2024, with a slight decline of 2% expected in 2025 [2][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 3.79 - 2024: 7.13 - 2025E: 6.97 - 2026E: 9.19 - 2027E: 11.43 [2][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E (adjusted): 40.8 in 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 - P/B: 4.9 in 2023, decreasing to 2.3 by 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - **Core Local Business**: - Q1 revenue of 64.32 billion, up 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.49 billion, a 39.1% increase [6] - **New Business**: - Q1 revenue of 22.23 billion, up 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.27 billion [6] - **Delivery and Flash Purchase**: - Q1 delivery volume growth remained stable despite competitive pressures, with a projected increase in Q2 [6] - **International Expansion**: - Keeta is set to enter the Brazilian market, with a planned investment of 1 billion USD over five years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - Alibaba's core business in e-commerce remains stable and shows positive growth, while its cloud business is entering a high-growth cycle driven by AI demand [7][9] - The company has exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results, with revenue and adjusted net profit showing significant growth [7][9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY4Q25, Alibaba achieved revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion yuan [7] - Adjusted net profit reached 298.5 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus estimate of 298.5 billion yuan [7] - The Taobao Group reported revenue of 1013.7 billion yuan, growing 8.8% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITA of 417.5 billion yuan, up 8.4% [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 17.7% year-on-year to 301.3 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITA growing 69.0% [7] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% year-on-year to 335.8 billion yuan, while the logistics segment saw a revenue decline of 12.2% [7] Future Outlook - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue for FY2026-2028 to be 10642 billion yuan, 11748 billion yuan, and 12725 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1696 billion yuan, 1849 billion yuan, and 1955 billion yuan [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a focus on AI and cloud integration alongside its core e-commerce business, with other segments showing signs of reduced losses [9][11] Valuation - The estimated market value of Alibaba is 30954 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 176.86 HKD per share [9][24]