2024 年 11 月 4 日 市场数据 总股本(亿股) 8.19 总市值(亿港元)： 286.36 一年最低/最高(港元)： 8.7-25.6 近 3 月换手率（%）： 308.8 收益表现 % 1M 3M 1Y 相对 -14.1 15.4 -18.2 绝对 -23.9 36.4 -2.1 资料来源：Wind 公司研究 激烈市场竞争导致短期价格承压，公司积极开拓新产品新市场 ——上海复旦（1385.HK）2024 年三季报业绩点评 要点 事件：公司前三季度实现营收 26 .84 亿人民币，同比下降 1.99%；24Q3 实现 营收 8.9 亿人民币，同比下降 5.55%；产品需求分化，其中 Q3 智能电表芯片 业务收入同比增长 27%，成为业绩增长驱动力，而安全与识别芯片/非挥发性 存储芯片/FPGA 及其他芯片业务收入分别同比下降 9%/11%/1%。利润端， 前三季度产品综合毛利率 55.05%，同比下降 9.53pct；24Q3 产品综合毛利 率 52.15%，同比下降 7.61pct，系多个产品线面临激烈的存量市场，公司为 巩固和拓展市场份额，下调部分产品价格，叠加产品结构调整的不利影响；前 三季度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics, with a target price of HKD 47, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 32.55 [2][3]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a net profit of RMB 3.06 billion for the first three quarters, with total revenue reaching RMB 122.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.54%. The gross profit was RMB 9.06 billion, up 14.68% year-on-year, while net profit growth was modest at 0.64% [2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the consolidation of Jabil's profits following its acquisition, alongside growth in high-end Android devices and automotive electronics [2]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to generate nearly RMB 20 billion this year, with high-value products like active suspension and smart cockpit gaining traction in the second half of the year [2]. - AI-related businesses are projected to contribute around RMB 1 billion in revenue this year, with expectations for significant growth in the following year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 167.1 billion, representing a growth of 28.5%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 4.33 billion, a growth of 7.3% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 1.92 in 2024, and further to RMB 2.39 in 2025 [4]. - The report anticipates a decrease in financial expenses in the coming year, which will positively impact profit contributions [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 15.4, indicating a potential upside of 52.4% from the current price of HKD 10.12 [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, with a 21.5% increase in Q2 net profit, aligning with market expectations. However, the year-on-year net profit has decreased by 22.5% [1]. - The coal business remains stable, with a quarterly production increase leading to a decrease in costs. The average selling price of coal is expected to rise slightly due to increased demand as the weather cools [1]. - The coal chemical segment has turned profitable, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, achieving revenue of RMB 187 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 106.6 billion, with a net profit of RMB 38.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27% [1]. - The coal segment's quarterly revenue was RMB 228 billion, with a gross profit margin of 50.2%, an increase of 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal chemical business reported a gross profit of RMB 15 billion in Q3, indicating a stable profitability outlook for the year [1]. Production and Sales Outlook - The company anticipates orderly production releases across various business segments, with new coal mines expected to commence operations by the end of the year and in 2026 [1]. - The coal production is projected to maintain growth, supported by new mining projects and increased operational efficiency [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.53, RMB 1.76, and RMB 1.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 15.3 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Xiaomi Group (1810), indicating a new starting point for the company as it accelerates its move towards high-end products [1]. Core Insights - The performance of the new Surge OS 2.0 has significantly improved, with core technologies such as HyperCore, HyperConnect, and HyperAI being upgraded to enhance user experience across devices [1]. - The Xiaomi 15 series and new AIoT products have generated considerable excitement in the industry, showcasing Xiaomi's commitment to innovation and high-quality offerings [1]. - The launch of the SU7 Ultra prototype car has elevated Xiaomi's brand image in the high-end market, with a competitive price point compared to luxury brands [1]. - Xiaomi plans to increase its R&D investment significantly, with expectations of over 24 billion yuan in 2024 and more than 30 billion yuan in 2025, to further enhance its technological capabilities [1]. - The automotive division is ramping up production, with October deliveries reaching 20,000 units, and the company is on track to meet its annual delivery target of 140,000 units [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi is focusing on high-end product development, with a strong emphasis on AI integration and user experience improvements through its new operating system [1]. Product Innovations - The Xiaomi 15 series features enhanced specifications and competitive pricing, while the introduction of various AIoT products demonstrates the company's commitment to meeting consumer needs [1]. Brand Development - The SU7 Ultra's record-setting performance has bolstered Xiaomi's high-end brand perception, with significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [1]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates improved margins in its automotive segment due to increased production efficiency and government subsidies for its core products [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto [1][2] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to USD 30.8, representing a potential upside of 23% [1] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is increased to HKD 120.0, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's vehicle delivery momentum is sustained, driven by the L6 model, with projected sales of 507,000 units in 2024 and 700,000 units in 2025, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][2] - The company's profitability significantly improved in Q3, with expectations for continued profit growth through 2025, positioning it as a leader in profitability among new energy vehicle companies [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capture additional market share in pure electric models by 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 42.874 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.225 billion, up 21% year-over-year and 49% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Operating profit increased by 47% year-over-year and 633% quarter-over-quarter, reaching RMB 3.433 billion [9] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.814 billion, approximately flat year-over-year but up 155% from the previous quarter [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, slightly down from 22.0% year-over-year but improved from 19.5% quarter-over-quarter [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 146.396 billion, with a growth rate of 18% [11] - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 30.431 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% [11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 12.534 billion, with a net margin of 6.3% [11] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5x for automotive sales and 17.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of USD 30.8 for Li Auto [3][13] - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for 2025 [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chizicheng Technology (09911 HK) [1] Core Views - Chizicheng Technology's Q3 2024 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with social business maintaining high-quality growth [1] - The company's social business revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is expected to reach RMB 3 24-3 28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60 7%-62 7% [1] - The company's innovative business revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is expected to be RMB 300-320 million, a year-on-year increase of 12 4%-19 9% [1] - The company's self-developed and externally distributed premium game achieved a turnover of approximately RMB 576 million, a year-on-year increase of about 182 5%, but has not yet been reflected in the company's revenue [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is expected to be RMB 4 773 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44 3% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be RMB 383 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25 2% [1] - The company's ROE for 2024E is expected to be 25 5% [1] - The company's EPS for 2024E is expected to be RMB 0 32 [1] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is expected to be 10 3x [1] Social Business - The company's social business revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is expected to reach RMB 3 24-3 28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60 7%-62 7% [2] - The company's social business revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to be RMB 1 17-1 21 billion, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The company's social business growth is driven by the expansion of the pan-population social business in the Middle East and North Africa, with the SUGO platform achieving a monthly turnover of over USD 10 million [2] - The company's acquisition of BlueCity in August 2023 has contributed to the growth of social business revenue [2] - The company's new products, such as SUGO, TopTop, and HeeSay, are expected to contribute to the growth of social business revenue [2] Innovative Business - The company's innovative business revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is expected to be RMB 300-320 million, a year-on-year increase of 12 4%-19 9% [5] - The growth of innovative business is driven by the steady development of social e-commerce business [5] - The company's flagship game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," achieved a turnover of approximately RMB 576 million, a year-on-year increase of about 182 5% [5] Acquisition of NBT Minority Stake - The company plans to acquire a minority stake in its subsidiary NBT Social Networking [3] - NBT's net profit after tax for 2022, 2023, and Q1 2024 were RMB 440 million, RMB 660 million, and RMB 170 million, respectively [3] - The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of 2024 and will increase the company's net profit attributable to the parent company [3] Investment Recommendation - The report recommends maintaining a "Buy" rating for Chizicheng Technology [5] - The report expects the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be RMB 4 773 billion, RMB 5 395 billion, and RMB 6 028 billion, respectively [5] - The report expects the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be RMB 383 million, RMB 729 million, and RMB 844 million, respectively [5] - The report expects the company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 to be 10 3x, 6 4x, and 5 5x, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable volume and pricing in Q4 2024, reserving potential for 2025, with the pure electric platform possibly creating significant products [1][2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 145.8 billion, 169.2 billion, and 216.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18%, 16%, and 28% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have been adjusted to 10.7 billion, 13.2 billion, and 17.8 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 5.1, 6.2, and 8.2 yuan [2] - The current stock price of 97.10 HKD corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.1, 0.9, and 0.7 for 2024-2026, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7, 12.1, and 9.0 [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 145.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [3] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin is expected to be 21% in 2024, with a net margin of 7.4% [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected at 17.2% for 2024, with EPS expected to be 5.06 yuan [3] - The P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 14.7, while the P/S ratio is projected at 1.1 [3]

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 5.30 [2] Core Views - The company's 3Q24 performance met expectations with stable growth in coal-fired power generation and relatively stable electricity prices [2] - Revenue for 1~3Q24 was RMB 84.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - 3Q24 revenue was RMB 31.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [2] - The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire coastal thermal power assets from the group, with a total consideration of RMB 7.17 billion [2] Financial Performance - 3Q24 gross profit was RMB 3.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross margin of 9.9%, up 0.1 ppts year-on-year and 1.1 ppts quarter-on-quarter [2] - 3Q24 electricity generation was 63.0 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with coal-fired electricity generation at 53.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [2] - The average tax-included electricity price in 3Q24 was RMB 0.511/kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1% [2] Asset Acquisition - The company plans to acquire approximately 16.0 GW of conventional energy assets in Jiangsu and other regions through issuing shares and paying cash [2] - The total consideration for the acquisition is RMB 7.17 billion, with RMB 3.43 billion paid in shares and RMB 3.43 billion in cash [2] - The PB valuation of the acquired assets is approximately 1.6x, and the PE valuation is approximately 13.5x based on the 2023 net profit of RMB 530 million [2] Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 3.77, with a 52-week price range of HKD 3.07 to HKD 5.29 [3] - The current market capitalization is HKD 38.558 billion, with 10.228 billion shares outstanding [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is expected to be RMB 124.897 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32% [5] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be RMB 6.442 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.01% [5] - The PE ratio for 2024E is 5.5x, and the PB ratio is 0.48x [5]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 operating trends are in line with expectations, with both new and existing stores contributing to growth [2] - The company is accelerating its scale layout in provincial capitals, with both organic growth and acquisitions driving expansion [2] - The company is enhancing patient service experience through multiple initiatives, including strategic partnerships and the establishment of a self-pay business system [3] - The company's "online + offline" business model is expected to further enhance revenue and profitability as the number of stores increases [3] - The company's core growth drivers include increased doctor resources and patient flow, with accelerated store expansion supporting future high growth [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 1,627 million in 2022 to RMB 5,206 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from RMB 183.29 million in 2022 to RMB 631.32 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 36.2% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to rise from RMB 200.81 million in 2022 to RMB 705.00 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 36.9% [1] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 0.75 in 2022 to RMB 2.59 in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio based on the latest diluted EPS is forecasted to decrease from 44.53 in 2022 to 12.93 in 2026 [1] Operational Highlights - In Q3 2024, the total number of visits reached approximately 1.485 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% [2] - New stores (including self-built and acquired) contributed 6.5% of the 25.0% growth rate, with approximately 77,000 visits [2] - The company has opened 74 offline TCM clinics in 20 cities (including Singapore), highlighting its chain, scale, and brand advantages [2] - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, planning to establish an international headquarters in Singapore and cultivate international talents through the "Gusheng Shiqi TCM Master Class" [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has entered into a strategic partnership with Meituan Healthcare, with over 70 TCM institutions and 30,000 TCM doctors joining the platform to provide appointment booking and online consultation services [3] - The company is gradually building a self-pay business system to meet diversified medical needs, aiming for sustainable growth [3] - The company's business model is expected to further leverage the advantages of "online + offline" integration, enhancing revenue and profitability [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's P/B ratio is 3.85, with a market capitalization of HKD 8,919.73 million [4] - The company's net asset per share is RMB 9.51, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 31.33% [5] - The company's ROIC and ROE are expected to increase from 12.60% and 10.94% in 2023 to 17.34% and 16.88% in 2026, respectively [12] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 30%, with a net profit margin increasing from 10.86% in 2023 to 12.13% in 2026 [12] Historical Performance and Future Outlook - The company's revenue grew by 43.05% year-on-year in 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 37.59% [1] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 32.05% in 2024, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 26.47% [1] - The company's revenue growth is projected to remain strong, with a CAGR of 29.72% from 2024 to 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][2][4] Core Views - The company benefits from the rise in alumina prices, with Shandong Hongqiao's net profit for Q3 2024 increasing by 9.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][5] - The company's full industry chain layout and sufficient ore supply allow it to benefit from tight bauxite supply and significant increases in alumina prices, leading to a strong profit elasticity to both aluminum and alumina prices [4][8] - The report maintains the "Outperform the Market" rating, citing the company's ability to reduce long-term debt and carbon emission pressures, enhancing its sustainable development capabilities [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, Shandong Hongqiao reported operating revenue of 38.02 billion yuan (up 13.9% year-on-year, up 2.0% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 5.96 billion yuan (up 38.0% year-on-year, up 9.4% quarter-on-quarter) [3][5] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 23.22 billion, 21.80 billion, and 21.92 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 102.6%, -6.1%, and 0.5% [4][8] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 2.45, 2.30, and 2.31 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 4.9, 5.2, and 5.1 [4][8] Key Financial Metrics - The report assumes an average aluminum price of 20,000 yuan/ton for 2024-2026, an alumina price of 3,900/3,500/3,500 yuan/ton, and a prebaked anode price of 4,000 yuan/ton [4][8] - The company’s financial stability is expected to improve due to reduced volatility in energy costs, enhancing its profitability [4][8]