Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [2][16]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals achieved revenue of CNY 70.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.33 billion, down 13.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in profit contributions from the Pharmaceutical Manufacturing segment and one-time losses [3][13]. - The Pharmaceutical Service segment demonstrated strong resilience, with revenue reaching CNY 64.88 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, driven by innovative business initiatives [3][14]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 8% for FY2025 and 7.3% for FY2026, with net profit growth expected to be 9.3% in FY2025 and 9.9% in FY2026 [11][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was CNY 260.3 billion, with a projected increase to CNY 275.3 billion in FY2024 and CNY 297.3 billion in FY2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2%, 5.7%, and 8.0% respectively [11][16]. - The gross profit margin for FY2025 is projected at 11.2%, with a slight decrease to 11.1% in FY2026 [11][16]. - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 7.4x for FY2025 and 6.7x for FY2026, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to its earnings potential [5][16]. Segment Performance - The Pharmaceutical Service segment's revenue includes CNY 1.8 billion from Contract Sales Organization (CSO) services, up 9.9% year-on-year, and CNY 12.5 billion from innovative drug distribution, up 23.2% year-on-year [3][14]. - The Pharmaceutical Manufacturing segment reported revenue of CNY 5.89 billion, down 15.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [14][16]. Valuation - The target price for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals is set at HKD 13.73, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a WACC of 6.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported strong product revenue growth in Q1 2025, exceeding RMB 2.4 billion, which represents a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [3][14]. - The commercial product portfolio has expanded to 15 products, with four new drugs launched in Q1 2025 [14][15]. - Upcoming approvals for innovative products are expected to drive further revenue growth throughout 2025 [3][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 11.86 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 18.09 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 26% [9][19]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 380 million [19][12]. - Gross profit margins are projected to remain strong, with estimates of 83.7% in 2025 and increasing to 88.0% by 2027 [12][19]. Product and R&D Developments - The company has launched four new drugs in Q1 2025, including IBI-344 (ROS1) and Limertinib (EGFR TKI) [14][15]. - The R&D pipeline is robust, with expectations for at least five new assets to enter global multi-regional clinical trials by 2030 [16][19]. - Key upcoming events include data updates for various clinical trials at major conferences, which are anticipated to enhance the company's market position [17][18]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been revised to HKD 62.5 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [9][19].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 银行 2025 年 05 月 06 日 建设银行 (00939) —— ROE 稳居大行第一，夯实资本为做大做强更进一步 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.38 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8231.04 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 7.02/5.14 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 15,950.70 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 240,417.32 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0774 | 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -9% 41% 91% HSCEI 建设银行 李禹昊 A0230123070008 liyh2@sws ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported strong product revenue growth in Q1 2025, exceeding RMB 2.4 billion, which represents a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [3][14]. - The commercial product portfolio has expanded to 15 products, with four new drugs launched in Q1 2025 [14][15]. - Upcoming approvals for innovative products are expected to drive continued revenue growth throughout the year [3][19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are revised to RMB 11.86 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 18.09 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 20%, and 26% respectively [9][19]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 380 million [19]. Product Performance - Mature products like Tyvyt (PD-1) continue to show growth, with Q1 2025 sales reported at USD 138 million, up 18% year-on-year [17]. - New products such as IBI-351 (KRAS G12C), IBI-344 (ROS1), and IBI-311 (IGF-1R) are contributing to revenue growth [17][19]. R&D Pipeline - The company anticipates at least five new assets entering global multi-regional clinical trials by 2030, including PD-1/IL-2 and CLDN18.2 ADC [16]. - IBI3020, a dual-payload ADC, has completed first-patient dosing in its Phase I clinical trial, marking a significant milestone [16][19]. Valuation - The target price is revised to HKD 62.5 per share, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [9][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [4]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a steady recovery with improved sales performance, particularly in e-commerce, and is gradually emerging from a low operational period [3]. - The company focuses on enhancing operational efficiency by closing underperforming stores, resulting in a net decrease of 29 sales points in China [1]. - The company is pursuing a strategy of deepening core categories while expanding into new categories, with significant growth in running, basketball, and training segments [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 29.5 billion RMB, 31.7 billion RMB, and 34.0 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Net profit estimates for the same period are 2.8 billion RMB, 3.0 billion RMB, and 3.2 billion RMB respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.09 RMB, 1.16 RMB, and 1.23 RMB for 2025-2027 [3]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 39.29 billion HKD and a total share capital of 2,584.80 million shares [4]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 26.90%, indicating a relatively low level of debt [4]. Sales Performance - The company reported a low single-digit growth in overall retail sales, with a 10%-20% increase in e-commerce sales [1]. - The running category saw a retail sales increase of 25% in 2024, leading the growth among core categories [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [2][16]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals achieved revenue of CNY 70.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.33 billion, down 13.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in profit contributions from the Pharmaceutical Manufacturing segment and one-time losses [3][13]. - The Pharmaceutical Service segment showed resilience with revenue reaching CNY 64.88 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year, driven by innovative business initiatives [3][14]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 8% for FY2025 and 7% for FY2026, with net profit expected to grow by 9.3% in FY2025 and 9.9% in FY2026 [11][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was CNY 70.76 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1.33 billion, reflecting a decline due to various factors including a fine and asset disposal losses [3][13]. - The Pharmaceutical Service segment's revenue was CNY 64.88 billion, with significant contributions from innovative drug distribution and medical device businesses [3][14]. Segment Analysis - Pharmaceutical Manufacturing revenue decreased by 15.3% year-on-year to CNY 5.89 billion, impacted by a high base from the previous year, but showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.0% [14]. - R&D investment in Q1 2025 was CNY 610 million, with R&D expenses remaining stable year-on-year [14]. Profitability and Valuation - The report uses a discounted cash flow model to maintain a target price of HKD 13.73, corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.4x for FY2025 and 6.7x for FY2026 [5][16]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 11.2%, with expectations for continued improvement in management efficiency and cost ratios [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The overall revenue scale continues to grow, with outpatient revenue increasing at a faster pace. The company's strength in comprehensive cancer treatment is continuously enhancing. In 2024, total revenue is projected to be 4.446 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.0%. The main hospital business revenue is expected to reach 4.322 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is actively expanding its treatment projects, particularly in oncology, improving treatment methods, and enhancing management efficiency. By the end of 2024, the company completed 96,993 surgeries, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with surgical revenue growing by 21.2% [3]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to unexpected impacts from uncollected medical insurance income and the company's self-built planning. The expected net profit for 2027 is projected at 891 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12/11/9 times [4]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 4.446 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.04%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 598.26 million yuan, a decrease of 12.40% year-on-year [9]. - The company has been expanding its physician scale and increasing patient visits, with approximately 4.5 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [9]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a projected EPS of 0.97 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 13.84 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for JD Logistics (02618.HK) [1][6] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved an adjusted net profit of 7.92 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 187%, driven by integrated supply chain growth and cost reduction efforts [1][6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a projected revenue of 182.84 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase [2][6] - The report highlights the significant contribution of integrated supply chain clients, with revenue from these clients reaching 87.4 billion RMB, a 7.2% increase from the previous year [6][7] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 182.84 billion RMB - 2025E: 200.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 216.90 billion RMB - 2027E: 232.18 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates: 9.7% for 2024 and 2025, 8.1% for 2026, and 7.0% for 2027 [2][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 6.20 billion RMB - 2025E: 7.08 billion RMB - 2026E: 8.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 9.46 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates: 905.8% for 2024, 14.2% for 2025, 15.9% for 2026, and 15.4% for 2027 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.94 RMB - 2025E: 1.06 RMB - 2026E: 1.23 RMB - 2027E: 1.42 RMB [2][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio: 12.1 for 2024, decreasing to 7.9 by 2027 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio: 1.4 for 2024, decreasing to 0.9 by 2027 [2][8] Strategic Insights - JD Logistics is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain capabilities and improving service quality to drive profitability [6][7] - The company plans to integrate its supply chain systems with major e-commerce platforms, which is expected to boost logistics volume across channels [6][7] - The implementation of smart technologies has led to a significant reduction in operational costs, with gross profit margin increasing to 10.2% in 2024 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - Consumer demand for finely crafted and emotionally connected gold products remains strong despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [1][3] - The company has successfully implemented product optimization measures, leading to a strong growth momentum in pricing products and effective marketing activities during the Lunar New Year [1] - The average selling price of gold products in mainland China increased to HKD 6,400 in FY25Q4 from HKD 5,600 in FY24Q4, indicating resilience in pricing [2] - The company opened two new fashion stores in mainland China, enhancing its retail experience and achieving higher productivity than the average same-store sales [2] - The retail value contribution from jewelry embedded with diamonds and other gemstones showed a significant improvement, with a retail value increase of 2.4% in FY25Q4 [3] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The retail value in FY25Q4 decreased by 11.6%, with mainland China contributing a 10.4% decline [1] - Same-store sales in mainland China fell by 13.2%, with a 25.2% drop in same-store volume [1] - The same-store sales decline in Hong Kong and Macau was 22.5%, influenced by changing consumer preferences [1] Product Categories - The retail value of jewelry embedded with diamonds and other gemstones increased, with the average selling price for jewelry embedded in mainland China soaring to HKD 10,900 from HKD 8,000 [2] - The share of priced products in the retail value rose from 9.4% to 25.6% in FY25Q4, exceeding management expectations [3] Network Optimization - The company closed 395 retail points in mainland China to optimize its retail network while maintaining market leadership [4] - The contribution of franchise stores to retail value in mainland China was 69.9% in FY25Q4 [3] Financial Projections - The company expects revenue for FY25-27 to be HKD 913 billion, HKD 979 billion, and HKD 1,060 billion respectively, with net profit projections of HKD 56.3 billion, HKD 69.1 billion, and HKD 76.8 billion [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 24.5 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of 20.15 HKD [5][6]. Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in cow inventory, leading to a stabilization of milk prices expected within the year. The report anticipates that the supply-demand dynamics will improve, resulting in a more balanced market by 2026 [2][8]. - The management has guided for a low single-digit revenue growth in 2025, focusing on improving profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures. The company aims for a stable operating profit margin (OPM) and a gradual improvement in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [3][10]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed slow demand recovery, but a gradual improvement in revenue is expected in the second quarter due to favorable market conditions and lower comparative bases from the previous year [4][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.33, 1.46, and 1.60 HKD, respectively. The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025 [6][14]. - Revenue is expected to decline by 10.09% in 2024 but recover slightly in 2025 with a growth of 1.39%. The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39.7% in 2025 [7][10]. - The net profit margin is anticipated to improve significantly from 0.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7][10].