证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 李宁（02331.HK） 24Q3 流水点评：环比转弱符合预期、维持业 绩指引，成立合资公司发展海外业务 2024 年 10 月 23 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|---------|--------|-------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 25803 | 27598 | 28315 | 30453 | 32907 | | 同比 (%) | 14.31 | 6.96 | 2.60 | 7.55 | 8.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4064 | 3187 | 3129 | 3556 | 3911 | | 同比 (%) | 1.32 | (21.58) | (1.82) | 13.64 | 9.98 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.57 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction International (830 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 3.07 to HKD 3.12, indicating a potential upside of 54.7% based on a 9.0x FY24 target P/E ratio [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant operational profit increase of 128.4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 rising by 2.0% to HKD 6.54 billion, driven by a 26.4% increase in revenue from the Hong Kong and Macau regions [1][2]. - New contract signings in Q3 2024 increased by 4.6% year-on-year to HKD 2.50 billion, despite a 5.2% decline in new contracts for the first three quarters [2]. - The Hong Kong government's recent policy initiatives are expected to create long-term opportunities for the construction sector, including plans for 80,000 new private housing units and the commencement of the New Territories Science Park project [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24, total revenue is projected to reach HKD 9.82 billion, with a growth rate of 13.0% in FY25 and 12.7% in FY26 [4]. - Shareholder net profit is forecasted to grow to HKD 783 million in FY24, with subsequent increases to HKD 1.018 billion in FY25 and HKD 1.204 billion in FY26, reflecting growth rates of 34.9% and 18.3% respectively [4]. - The company’s operating profit margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 12.9%, exceeding expectations [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to provide an additional cash return of $180 million over the next three years, with a total return rate of 11.1% anticipated for 2024. The company plans to maintain a 70% dividend payout ratio and return up to $60 million annually through special dividends or buybacks, totaling $180 million [4]. - The company has shown stable order growth in Q3 2024, with a revenue increase of 0.6% to $390 million. Manufacturing revenue grew by 0.2% to $380 million, with a shipment volume increase of 5.7% to 12.9 million pairs, although the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 4.9% to $29.3 [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin and EBIT margin reached a ten-year high in 2023, indicating improved production efficiency and profitability for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $1,493 million, with a slight increase to $1,497 million in 2024, followed by $1,563 million in 2025 and $1,640 million in 2026. Year-over-year growth rates are expected to be -8% in 2023, 0% in 2024, 4% in 2025, and 5% in 2026 [5][7]. - Net profit is forecasted to grow from $141 million in 2023 to $166 million in 2024, $186 million in 2025, and $205 million in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 12% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.6% in 2023 to 25.3% in 2024, and further to 25.9% by 2026 [5][7]. Market Position and Valuation - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect since September 9, leading to improved liquidity and significant net inflows from southbound funds [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 10-11 times, with a corresponding fair value range of HKD 15.80 to 17.38 per share [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 63 6 [2] Core Views - The global and Chinese trendy toy markets are experiencing rapid growth with CAGRs of 22 8% (2015-2019) and 32 8% (2015-2021) respectively The Chinese market is expected to reach RMB 76 4 billion by 2024 [2] - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive trendy toy industry chain platform with strong IP mining and operation capabilities Its domestic business is entering a high-quality development phase while overseas markets are becoming a second growth curve [2][3] - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2026 with projected CAGRs of 39 6% and 51 9% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The trendy toy industry has evolved from a niche luxury market to a mass-market phenomenon driven by blind box products and expanding IP boundaries The global market size grew from $8 7 billion in 2015 to $19 8 billion in 2019 [10] - China's trendy toy market is still in a high-growth phase with significant room for penetration and concentration improvement The market size increased from RMB 6 3 billion in 2015 to RMB 34 5 billion in 2021 [12] - Z generation consumers aged 18-35 are the main driving force behind the trendy toy market accounting for 55% of purchases [13][14] Company Analysis Business Model - Pop Mart operates a full industry chain platform covering artist discovery IP operation consumer reach and trendy toy promotion It has established a leading sales network with 374 retail stores and 2 189 robot stores in mainland China and 92 retail stores (including joint ventures) and 162 robot stores in overseas markets as of June 2024 [2] - The company has developed a robust IP matrix including artist IPs (MOLLY DIMOO SKULLPANDA) and licensed IPs (Disney Marvel) In 2023 it had 10 artist IPs with sales exceeding RMB 100 million [30] Financial Performance - In H1 2024 Pop Mart achieved revenue of RMB 4 56 billion (+62 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 921 million (+93 3% YoY) Overseas revenue grew 259 6% YoY accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 64 0% in H1 2024 driven by supply chain optimization and product structure improvement [44] Growth Drivers - Domestic growth is supported by store upgrades product category expansion and new channel development particularly on Douyin [47] - Overseas markets are becoming a key growth driver with revenue contribution increasing to 30% in H1 2024 The company is accelerating DTC strategy implementation and local market penetration [47] Future Outlook - Pop Mart is expected to maintain strong growth momentum with projected revenue of RMB 10 24 billion (+62 5% YoY) and net profit of RMB 2 11 billion (+95 3% YoY) in 2024 [3] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 37X 28X and 22X respectively based on the closing price of HKD 63 95 on October 18 2024 [3]

2024 年 10 月 22 日 公司研究 深化海内外市场开拓，前三季度新签合同额同比大增 65.6% ——中石化炼化工程（2386.HK）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布自愿性合同公告， 2024 年前三季度，公司新签订合同总值为 734.57 亿元，同比增长 65.6%。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，公司未完成合同量为 1657.73 亿元。 点评： 新签合同额快速增长，海外市场拓展迅速。2024 年前三季度，公司国内新签合 同额 469 亿元，同比增长 32%，境外新签订合同额 266 亿元，同比增长 202%， 海外合同占比从 2023 年前三季度的 20%增至 36%，延续了强劲的发展势头。 公司业务结构更加优化，EPC 合同占比从 2023 年前三季度的 54%增长至 74%， 表明公司总承包施工能力日益增强，得到业主的高度认可。2024 年前三季度， 在国内市场公司代表合同包括芒果乙烯项目（60.81 亿元）、华锦项目（58.07 亿元）等。在境外市场，公司代表性新合同包括哈萨克斯坦 Silleno 乙烷裂解项 目（12.5 亿美元）、沙特 Jafurah 三期项目（9 亿美元）等。 合同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 2.37, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 2.04 [11]. Core Insights - The impact of the Sichuan hydropower plant's exit from operation is expected to be minor, with compensation payments anticipated to be received in 2025 [1]. - The company forecasts a reduction in hydropower generation by approximately 110 million kWh in 2024, leading to a revenue decrease of about RMB 30 million [1]. - A one-time impairment is expected in 2024, but the core earnings impact for 2025-2026 is projected to be minimal [1]. - The dividend policy for 2024 is expected to remain unchanged, with a forecasted dividend of RMB 0.14 per share [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,867 million for 2024, RMB 22,696 million for 2025, and RMB 24,982 million for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 2.1%, 8.8%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - Net profit estimates are RMB 2,932 million for 2024, RMB 3,523 million for 2025, and RMB 4,240 million for 2026, with a projected decline of 7.6% in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 0.34 for 2024, RMB 0.41 for 2025, and RMB 0.50 for 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.4 for 2024, decreasing to 4.5 for 2025 and 3.7 for 2026 [2]. Operational Insights - The company’s total electricity sales for 2024 are projected to be 40,927 million kWh, with contributions from various energy sources: wind (13,836 million kWh), natural gas (19,424 million kWh), solar (6,066 million kWh), and hydropower (1,600 million kWh) [5]. - The operational profit from the wind and solar segments is expected to be significant, while the hydropower segment's contribution to operating profit is anticipated to be only 1% in 2025-2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at HKD 3.92, reflecting a potential upside from the latest closing price of HKD 2.85 [2][4]. Core Insights - The establishment of the first technician college by the company, recognized by the Anhui provincial government, signifies the company's commitment to enhancing vocational education and aligns with national policy initiatives [3]. - The college currently has over 8,100 students and 463 full-time teachers, offering 18 specialized programs, which is expected to attract more high school students and potentially extend the duration of study programs [3]. - The company aims to build a multi-tiered educational framework that includes vocational training, technical schools, and technician colleges, enhancing its ability to produce skilled talent in high-demand sectors such as new energy vehicles and intelligent manufacturing [3]. - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth driven by effective cost control and normalization of student enrollment, with projected revenues of HKD 41.5 billion, HKD 44.1 billion, and HKD 48.4 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 3,978.65 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.18%. The revenue is expected to grow to HKD 4,149.49 million in 2024, HKD 4,405.82 million in 2025, and HKD 4,841.54 million in 2026 [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 272.62 million in 2023, increasing to HKD 496.06 million in 2024, HKD 596.04 million in 2025, and HKD 725.32 million in 2026, reflecting significant growth rates [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 0.23, HKD 0.27, and HKD 0.33 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11, 9, and 8 [4][6].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 21 年 月 日 波司登（03998.HK） 旺季启动，新品上市，期待 FY2025H1 业绩稳健增长 各地天气降温，带动秋季置装需求，期待 FY2025H1 利润快速增长。1）我们估计 FY2025H1（截至 2024/9/30 的六个月）公司收入同比有望增长 10%~20%/利润增速 有望快于收入增速，根据行业及天气情况我们判断其中品牌羽绒服业务增速快于 OEM 增速，估计女装收入同比承压、符合行业趋势。2）盈利质量方面，考虑产品结构变化， 我们估计 FY2025H1 波司登主品牌毛利率同比或略有下降；考虑业务结构变化，我们 估计公司毛利率同比或基本稳定。 新品持续创新，重点发力户外，近期"三合一鹅绒冲锋衣"等陆续上架销售。过去几年 内，波司登品牌品质提升驱动产品单价向上+穿着场景拓宽带动销售量增长，FY2024 主 品牌毛利率高达 69.6%/品牌羽绒服业务毛利率高达 65.0%。1）持续升级羽绒新品品 质，重点布局户外场景，推出叠变轻薄羽绒服（获得 ISPO 全球户外大奖）、机能教父 联名款、意大利潮牌 MSGM 联名款等等，升级迭 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Laopu Gold (06181 HK) for the first time [1] Core Views - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end jewelry brand specializing in ancient gold craftsmanship, with rapid revenue and profit growth [6] - The ancient gold jewelry market is growing significantly faster than the ordinary gold jewelry market, with penetration still having room for improvement [7] - Laopu Gold's brand premium, product differentiation, and channel expansion are key drivers of growth [7] Company Overview - Laopu Gold focuses on ancient gold craftsmanship, offering products such as jewelry, daily gold utensils, and ornaments [6] - The company operates 33 self-owned stores as of H1 2024, primarily located in high-end shopping malls in first-tier and new first-tier cities [6] - Revenue from offline stores accounted for 88 6% of total revenue in 2023 [6] - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 10 new stores in mainland China and 5 stores in regions including Hong Kong, Macau, Tokyo, and Singapore over the next three years [6] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from RMB 1 265 billion in 2021 to RMB 3 18 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 58 6% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 114 million in 2021 to RMB 416 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 91% [6] - Gross margin remained stable at around 41 9% from 2021 to 2023 [6] - Net margin improved from 9% in 2021 to 13 1% in 2023 [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market grew from RMB 13 billion in 2018 to RMB 157 3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 64 6% [7] - The penetration rate of ancient gold jewelry increased from 4 6% in 2018 to 31 2% in 2023 [7] - The top five gold jewelry brands accounted for 46 1% of the ancient gold jewelry market in 2023, with Laopu Gold holding a 2% market share [7] - The price of 9999 gold in China rose from RMB 271 1 per gram in 2018 to RMB 449 9 per gram in 2023 [18] Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold's products are priced higher than traditional gold jewelry, with 65% of products priced between RMB 10,000 and RMB 50,000 [7] - The company's stores are located in high-end shopping malls, with the top five stores achieving a sales growth of 157 9% in 2023 [7] - Laopu Gold's single-store revenue increased from RMB 52 58 million in 2018 to RMB 98 89 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 13 47% [7] - The company's coverage rate in the top 40 high-end shopping malls in China was 30% in 2023, with plans to expand to 15 new stores by 2026 [7] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 6 432 billion in 2024, RMB 8 753 billion in 2025, and RMB 10 614 billion in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach RMB 1 032 billion in 2024, RMB 1 423 billion in 2025, and RMB 1 742 billion in 2026 [4] - The P/E ratio is projected to be 24 9x in 2024, 18x in 2025, and 14 7x in 2026 [4] Product and Customer Analysis - Laopu Gold's products are primarily priced between RMB 10,000 and RMB 50,000, with gold-inlaid products contributing 56% of revenue in 2023 [7] - Customers spending over RMB 1 million accounted for 15 9% of sales in 2023, up from 8 5% in 2021 [48] - The company's customer base is relatively young, with 45% of followers on Xiaohongshu aged 45 and above [52]

研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$14.86 目标价 HK$19.91 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$98.46bn / US$12.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$20.91mn 发行股票数目 6,626mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 45.1% 78.6% 56.4% 绝对值（美元） 45.5% 79.4% 57.4% 相对 MSCI China 28.0% 65.0% 41.6% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 166,625 176,002 194,821 215,303 Revenue (+/-) 21% 6% 11% 11% Net profit 2,761 6,788 11,5 ...