Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 65.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of HKD 53.00 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's share price decline post-interim results is due to market concerns over its dividend policy, which the report considers to be an overreaction. Despite a 17% year-on-year decline in core earnings, the company increased its interim dividend by 1.6% and raised its payout ratio by 3.5 percentage points to 20.6% [1][2]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of HKD 600 million, which is expected to bolster investor confidence and support the stock price amid low valuations [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in earnings, projecting a return to growth in 2025 and 2026, with expected dividend yields of 6% and 7% respectively, the highest among its peers in the gas sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 134,944 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,328 million by 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability after a dip in 2023 and 2024 [3][10]. - The company aims for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44% for the year, with a medium-term target of 50% over the next 3-4 years [1][2]. Operational Guidance - The company has set ambitious operational targets for 2024, including a 20-30% growth in its energy business and a retail gas volume growth exceeding 5% [6][8]. - The report projects that the gross margin for the retail gas segment will improve, maintaining around 11% from 2024 to 2026 [2][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the gas distribution sector, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 59.6 billion and a significant trading volume [5][9]. - The report notes that the company's stock has underperformed relative to the Hang Seng Index, providing a potential buying opportunity for investors [4][5].

线 开源证券 公 司 研 究 香港交易所 （00388.HK） 2024 年 09 月 26 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------| | 投资评级：买入（维持） \n日期 | 2024/9/25 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 262.60 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 299.00/212.20 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 3,329.34 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 3,329.34 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 12.68 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 27.19 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 香港交易所 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《Q2 现货 ADT 同环比改善，LME+ 互联互通+衍生品延续高增—2024H1 香港交易所业绩点评》-2024.8.21 《多元化发展战略保持韧性，关注政 策面积极催化—2024Q1 香港交易所 业绩点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, with a target price of HKD 96.70, based on a 1.3x PS multiple for 2024 [3] Core Views - Li Auto is positioned to capture market share in the smart car segment priced above RMB 250,000, leveraging its "refrigerator, OLED TV, and large sofa" strategy [2] - The company has achieved early profitability and mass delivery, giving it a first-mover advantage in the era of large models [2] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive future growth, with its NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system being a key differentiator [34][40] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Li Auto's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 144.0 billion in 2024E to RMB 246.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21% [2][3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024E to RMB 17.8 billion in 2026E, reflecting a strong recovery from previous losses [2][3] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20-21% from 2024E to 2026E, indicating improved cost control [2] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's market share in the 20-30万元 SUV segment has grown significantly, reaching 11.2% in August 2024, driven by the launch of the L6 model [19][23] - In the 30-40万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L7 and L8 models have faced competition from Huawei's AITO M7, leading to a slight decline in market share [24] - In the 40-50万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L9 model maintains a strong position, with a market share of 13.7%-20.6% in 2024 [26] Intelligent Driving and Technology - Li Auto's NOA system has been fully rolled out to AD Max users as of July 2024, with cumulative autonomous driving mileage reaching 1.9 billion kilometers by June 2024 [34][40] - The company is developing a next-generation autonomous driving system based on an "end-to-end + VLM" architecture, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [34][41] - Li Auto's intelligent cockpit, powered by the Qualcomm 8295P chip and its proprietary Mind GPT AI model, has been recognized for its advanced capabilities [42] Product Strategy and Sales - Li Auto's product lineup focuses on large SUVs with a family-oriented design, offering features like in-car refrigerators, massage seats, and entertainment screens [14] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has become a best-seller, accounting for 52% of total sales in August 2024 [11][12] - The company's high-end AD Max models, equipped with advanced intelligent driving features, have seen strong demand, with over 50% of L7, L8, and L9 sales being AD Max variants [43] R&D and Cost Efficiency - Li Auto's R&D expenses per vehicle in 2023 were RMB 28,000, significantly lower than NIO's RMB 84,000, reflecting a more cost-efficient approach [15][16] - The company's R&D expense ratio was 8.8% in 2023, compared to NIO's 27.3%, indicating a leaner R&D structure [15][16]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supportive policies from the Chinese government are expected to catalyze a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, benefiting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) [2][3] - The report predicts a rebound in the average daily trading volume (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks, with forecasts of HKD 1,117 billion for 2024, HKD 1,324 billion for 2025, and HKD 1,529 billion for 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 7.7% respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates an improvement in the company's performance and valuation, projecting net profit for 2024 to be HKD 12.473 billion, with a corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 9.8 [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 21,536 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][6] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 12,473 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3][6] - The report indicates that the EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable around 79.9% for 2024 [3][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 times in September 2023 to 26.3 times in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][3] Market Activity and Trends - The report notes that the trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market has improved, with a recent increase of 14.9% in HKEX's stock price from September 19 to September 24, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 7.3% [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the liquidity improvement is expected to directly benefit HKEX's trading and settlement business, with trading settlement revenue accounting for 56% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [2][3] - The report also highlights the potential for a rebound in investment scale and profitability, with investment income expected to contribute 24% to total revenue in 2024 [2][3]

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨零跑汽车（9863.HK） [Table_Title] 零跑汽车：T03、C10 正式在欧洲上市，T03 续 航领先并加配智能化，C10 定价略超预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | | | [Table_Summary] 零跑汽车 T03 、 C10 正式在欧洲上市，当前在欧洲 13 个国家开启销售， | T03 起售价 1.9 万欧， | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 零跑汽车（9863.HK） cjzqdt11111 2024-09-25 港股研究丨公司点评 [T ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a successful transformation from a traditional pharmaceutical agent to an innovative drug enterprise, with multiple products launched in recent years [1]. - The company has increased its focus on self-research and innovation, aiming to change its product structure and has successfully launched five innovative drugs since 2023 [1]. - The company maintains market advantages with its exclusive products despite pressures from centralized procurement policies [1]. - The emerging ophthalmology and dermatology businesses are gaining scale, and international operations in Southeast Asia are expanding [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is transitioning from a single-agent operation to an innovative pharmaceutical company, managing the entire product lifecycle through various means such as equity investments and strategic partnerships [6][16]. - It has a diverse portfolio covering cardiovascular, digestive, ophthalmology, and dermatology fields, with over 30 innovative products in development [6][16]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12.4% in 2023, with a further 21.7% drop in the first half of 2024 due to the impact of centralized procurement [19]. - Revenue is projected to recover with expected growth rates of -4%, 18%, and 21% from 2024 to 2026, respectively [1][19]. - Net profit is forecasted to decline by 28% in 2024 but is expected to grow by 22% and 31% in the following years [1][19]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - The company has launched several innovative products, including the first subcutaneous methotrexate injection for psoriasis and a novel monoclonal antibody for psoriasis treatment [10][19]. - The company has established a strong academic promotion team and a wide distribution network, covering over 55,000 hospitals and more than 280,000 retail pharmacies in China [17]. - The company’s innovative product pipeline includes 30 products, with five already approved for the Chinese market and more in clinical trials [17][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion HKD for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 16%. The net profit was 390 million HKD, down 27% year-on-year [4][5]. - The cement industry is facing overall operational pressure, with national cement production in the first half of 2024 at 850 million tons, a decrease of 10% year-on-year. The scale of losses in the cement industry is significant, with losses exceeding 3.4 billion HKD [4][5]. - The company's domestic operations are under pressure, while overseas markets are gradually expanding, leading to a slight overall decline in performance [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.7 billion HKD in H1 2024, down 16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 390 million HKD, down 27% year-on-year [4][5]. Market Conditions - The cement industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a national production decline of 10% and substantial losses reported across the sector [4][5]. - In the company's core market of Shaanxi, fixed asset investment growth was 2.7%, while real estate development investment decreased by 0.4% [4]. Sales and Pricing - The company's total sales volume in H1 2024 was 8.75 million tons, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year. Domestic sales in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Guizhou saw declines of 8.9%, 11.4%, and 32.1% respectively [5]. - Pricing varied by region, with prices in Xinjiang at 409 HKD/ton, Guizhou at 404 HKD/ton, and Shaanxi at 244 HKD/ton, showing a decline in Shaanxi's price compared to the previous year [5]. Capacity and Expansion - The company's total production capacity reached 34.3 million tons as of H1 2024, with significant capacities in various regions including Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and overseas markets [5]. - The overseas market is expected to be a core growth area, with ongoing expansion efforts in Mozambique, Congo, Ethiopia, and Uzbekistan [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates steady expansion in overseas markets, with several key projects planned in Ethiopia and ongoing efforts to stabilize operations in Mozambique and Congo [6]. - The projected earnings for 2024-2025 are 900 million HKD and 1.3 billion HKD, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5 and 3 times, supporting the "Buy" rating [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a target price range of 473 63-526 25 HKD [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential financial and business impact of Taobao's full integration with WeChat Pay, estimating significant revenue growth for WeChat Pay [1][8] - The integration is expected to bring in billions of RMB annually, with a potential revenue increase of 1%-4% for Tencent's FinTech and Business Services (FTB) segment by FY25 [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of data flow from e-commerce transactions, which could help Tencent improve its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce on WeChat Channels [1][21] Financial Impact Analysis - The report estimates that Taobao's integration with WeChat Pay could generate 4 2-25 0 billion RMB annually, depending on the penetration rate and fee structure [1][16] - Under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the revenue impact is projected at 4 2, 8 3, and 25 0 billion RMB respectively for every 5% penetration rate [1][16] - The report forecasts that Tencent's FTB business will maintain a "low growth + gradual gross margin improvement" state due to changes in revenue structure and increased usage of WeChat Pay's "zero balance" payments [1][22] Business Impact Analysis - The integration is expected to enhance Tencent's e-commerce data capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which saw a 3x growth in GMV in 2023 compared to 2022 [1][21] - The report notes that WeChat Pay's data flow could help Tencent build a more robust e-commerce ecosystem, especially in areas where it has been historically weak [1][21] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6655, 7257, and 7840 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 2197, 2464, and 2742 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 39%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 23 94, 27 55, and 31 44 RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for VESYNC (02148 HK) with a target price of HKD 6 2 [1] Core Views - VESYNC achieved revenue of USD 300 million in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 7 0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 45 million, a YoY increase of 37 5% [1] - Revenue growth accelerated in Q2 2024, with Q1/Q2 YoY growth rates of 1 0%/23 7% respectively, driven by strong demand on Amazon and inventory adjustments [1] - Non-Amazon channels grew significantly by 46 8% YoY, while Amazon channel revenue declined by 3 4% due to platform policy adjustments [1] - North America market revenue increased by 13 0% YoY, driven by market share gains in air purifiers and humidifiers, while Europe revenue declined by 18 6% due to reduced demand in regions like Turkey [1] - Gross margin improved by 3 3 ppts to 48 5%, and net margin increased by 3 4 ppts to 15 1%, driven by cost optimization and improved operational efficiency [1] - The company is expected to accelerate growth through diversified non-Amazon channels and new product categories, with TikTok and YouTube platforms contributing to a social media following of 1 5 million [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to USD 676 million in 2024, USD 786 million in 2025, and USD 898 million in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 15 5%, 16 2%, and 14 3% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach USD 90 million in 2024, USD 107 million in 2025, and USD 121 million in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 16 5%, 18 1%, and 13 4% respectively [2] - EPS is expected to increase from USD 0 07 in 2023 to USD 0 08 in 2024, USD 0 09 in 2025, and USD 0 11 in 2026 [2] - PE ratios are projected at 7x for 2024, 6x for 2025, and 5x for 2026 [2] Market and Product Performance - VESYNC's air purifier and humidifier market shares in the US increased by 5 7 ppts and 1 1 ppts to 33 3% and 23 9% respectively [1] - The vacuum cleaner category achieved a 6 8% market share on Amazon US in June 2024, contributing to incremental revenue growth [1] Valuation and Target Price - The target price of HKD 6 2 is based on a DCF valuation, implying a 10x PE for 2024 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Jiangnan Buyi (3306) with a target price of HKD 20.9 (RMB 19.0) based on a combination of PE and DCF valuation methods [5][10] Core Views - Jiangnan Buyi is a leading domestic designer brand with a 30-year history, strong brand equity, and a diversified portfolio covering women's, men's, children's, and homewear segments [5][11] - The company has achieved rapid revenue growth from RMB 1.38 billion in FY2014 to RMB 5.24 billion in FY2024, with a CAGR of 14.3%, and net profit CAGR of 19.0% [5][11] - The designer brand industry is growing faster than the overall apparel market, with a 7.6% CAGR from 2018-2023, outpacing women's wear (6%) and luxury/fast fashion sub-segments [5][11] - The company's strategy focuses on "design + brand-driven" growth, "omni-channel retail," and "multi-brand operations," aiming to achieve RMB 10 billion in retail sales by FY2026 [5][11] Financial Performance and Valuation - FY2025-2027 net profit is forecasted to be RMB 869/904/987 million, with a PE ratio of 9/8/8x [5][10] - The company's FY2024 revenue reached RMB 5.24 billion, with a gross margin of 66.3%, and net profit margin of 16.2% [27] - FY2024 dividend payout ratio was 97%, and future dividends are expected to remain above 75% [5][60] Brand Portfolio and Growth - The company operates a diversified brand matrix including mature brands (JNBY), growth brands (CROQUIS, jnby by JNBY, LESS), and emerging brands (POMME DE TERRE, JNBYHOME) [23][24] - Mature brands contributed 56% of FY2024 revenue, while growth brands accounted for 42%, with emerging brands making up 2% [24][44] - FY2019-2024 revenue CAGR for mature/growth/emerging brands exceeded 9% [5][45] Design and R&D - FY2024 design and R&D expenses increased by 16% to RMB 196 million, accounting for 4% of revenue [5][42] - The company emphasizes innovation in fabric and design, with a focus on art-inspired branding [5][42] Omni-Channel Retail Strategy - FY2024 online revenue grew 18.4%, accounting for 19.3% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 63.8% [49] - Offline revenue remains the primary contributor, with self-operated and distributor channels growing 16.4% and 17.7% respectively in FY2024 [49] - The company has 2,024 stores as of FY2024, with comparable store sales growth of 10.7% [50][52] Industry Outlook - The designer brand industry is expected to grow faster than fast fashion and luxury segments, with a 7.6% CAGR from 2018-2023 [40] - The mid-to-high-end women's wear market in China grew from RMB 297.7 billion in 2018 to RMB 391.6 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6% [36] - Female consumers prioritize product aesthetics (34%), material quality (25%), and brand reputation (22%) when making purchasing decisions [37][38]