证券研究报告 佳缘科技 (301117 CH) 下游需求向好，AI 和商密赋能后续发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 24 日│中国内地 | 航空航天 | 佳缘科技发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 3.37 亿元 （yoy+48.11%），归母净利 1144.54 万元（yoy+313.82%），低于我们此前 2078 万元归母净利的预期，主要系公司 24 年计提减值损失较多。24 年公 司通过扩大业务拓展提高公司的市场有效竞争能力，业绩实现较快增长。25 年一季度公司实现收入 2212 万元（yoy+35.66%），归母净利-1441 万元 （yoy+8.83%），收入保持了增长态势。考虑到当前网络信息安全行业对保 障国家安全、经济社会稳定运行起到重要的支撑作用，我们预计公司下游需 求将保持高景气，公司业绩未来三年有望实现较快增长，维持"买入"评级。 三大业务均实现增长，整体毛利率小幅下滑 24 年公司军工业务实现收入 2.76 亿元（yoy+50.47%）；医疗业务实现收入 4774 ...

证券研究报告 洽洽食品 (002557 CH) 25Q1 收入利润双承压，期待逐步改善 | 华泰研究 年报点评 | | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 24 日│中国内地 食品 | 公司 24 年收入/归母净利/扣非净利 71.3/8.5/7.7 亿，同比+4.8%/+5.8%/ +8.9%；24Q4 营业收入/归母净利/扣非净利 23.7/2.2/2.2 亿元，同比 +2.0%/-24.8%/-24.7%，符合前次业绩快报（预计 24 年收入/归母净利 71.3/ 8.5 亿），Q4 由于 KA 主销渠道客流减少、礼盒装产品价格内卷等因素，收 入未能实现显著增长；25Q1 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 15.7/0.8/0.6 亿，同比 -13.8%/ -67.9%/-73.8%，春节错期导致收入下滑，叠加成本上涨、促销增 加，Q1 毛利率/净利率同比-11.0/-8.3pct。展望来看，Q2 低基数叠加成本高 位回落，经营有望环比改善，25 年公司在量贩等新渠道持续导入 SKU，电 商渠道积极调整，海外市场逐步拓展，有望对冲传统渠道量价压力，"买入"。 Q1 销售承压，量贩/电商/海外有望贡献新增量 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 4.04 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.476 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.87%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90.75 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 137.99% [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the exclusion of Youyuan Environment from the consolidated scope, but on a comparable basis, revenue actually increased by 11.53% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new markets and applications, with a focus on innovation and product development, which is expected to sustain demand in emerging sectors and home decoration consumption [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the clean air business and energy-efficient business generated revenues of 666.5 million RMB and 776 million RMB, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -32.04% and +19.11% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 324 million RMB, a decrease of 4.59% year-on-year, while net profit was 33.56 million RMB, an increase of 3.69% year-on-year [1]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 21.96%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, with the clean air and energy-efficient business gross margins at 31.99% and 13.74%, respectively [3]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 224 million RMB, a significant increase of 222 million RMB year-on-year, primarily due to the collection of receivables [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.13 RMB, 0.17 RMB, and 0.19 RMB, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - The target price is set at 4.04 RMB, based on a PEG ratio of 1.1x for 2025, reflecting the ongoing business transformation and associated uncertainties [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience as a market leader, with significant dividends reflecting management confidence [1] - The integrated advantages in the titanium dioxide sector support good profitability, although margins in iron and titanium products remain under pressure [2] - The industry landscape for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, with dividends and share buybacks showcasing the company's confidence [3] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to ongoing pressures in downstream demand, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 2.9 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.2 billion RMB respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 27.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.17 billion RMB, down 33% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.05 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 690 million RMB, down 28% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - Titanium dioxide sales increased by 8.3% to 1.254 million tons in 2024, with revenue rising by 6.8% to 18.98 billion RMB, despite a 1.3% decrease in average price [2] - The company's gross margin for titanium dioxide improved by 2.8 percentage points to 31.4% due to integrated raw material advantages [2] Market Outlook - The price of titanium dioxide has seen slight increases, with the sulfuric acid method priced at 14,800 RMB/ton and the chloride method at 18,100 RMB/ton as of April 18 [3] - The company is expanding its integrated raw material advantages through ongoing development projects, which are expected to maintain a low-cost competitive edge in the medium to long term [3] Valuation and Estimates - The target price for the company is set at 19.20 RMB, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a strong market position despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts [4][6] - The company’s estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.20 RMB, with a downward revision from previous estimates [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 医疗服务 凯莱英(002821) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 24 日 从业务拆分看：小分子业务保持稳定发展，收入基本持平。新兴业务收入同比增 长超 80%，公司持续加大市场开拓力度和业务竞争力提升，特别是多肽、寡核苷 酸、ADC 等增量业务，我们仍然看好新兴业务持续发力。 ❑ 盈利能力：新兴业务毛利率显著提升，看好持续性 25Q1 实现毛利率 42.54%（同比-0.98pct），其中小分子业务毛利率 45.17%（同比 -2.17pct），新兴业务毛利率 33.05%（同比+15.75pct，我们认为主要来自于新兴 业务订单持续交付下产能利用率持续提升带来的规模化效应），明显回升。 净利率看 25Q1 净利率 21.06%（同比+1.09pct），其中研发费用率同比-3.15pct， 管理费用率同比-0.41pct，销售费用率同比-0.33pct，财务费用率同比+2.67pct。我 们认为伴随着新兴业务板块产能利用率提升，公司盈利能力仍有希望逐渐回升。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 我们预计 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 为 2.90、3.45 和 4.19 元，2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, up 84.1% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast median [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 0.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.11%, and a net profit of 0.338 billion yuan, up 21.07% year-on-year, although there was a slight quarter-on-quarter decline due to factors such as the Spring Festival holiday [2] - The demand for optical engines driven by AI is rapidly increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% for the optical module market from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end customer needs, with ongoing R&D projects in 1.6T, silicon photonics, and CPO technologies, while optimizing production processes to reduce costs [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.068 billion yuan, 2.922 billion yuan, and 4.016 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 25 for 2025 [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.524 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 68%, and a net profit of 1.344 billion yuan, reflecting an 84% increase [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 2.90 yuan, with a PE ratio of 25.03 [6]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 短期受折旧影响，手套及新材料扩产进行时 [Table_Title2] 恒辉安防(300952) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 300952 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 35.58/15.19 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 38.21 | | 最新收盘价： | 24.09 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 21.83 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 90.60 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 2024 年收入/归母净利/扣非归母净利/经营性现金流分别为 12.70/1.17/0.93/1.03 亿元、同比增加 29.95%/10.13%/13.20%/-0.90%，净利增速低于收入主要由于折旧增加、可转债利息费用增加。非经主要来自 政府补助 0.26 亿元（同比减少 4.05%）；经营性现金流低于归母净利主要由于订单增加导致的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant stock price appreciation over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.798 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.887 billion yuan, up 39.60% year-on-year [1][3]. - The utilization rate of drilling platforms has significantly improved, with a total of 4,889 operational days in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, and an overall utilization rate of 89.5%, up 10.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.64%, reflecting an increase of 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 6.64%, down 0.88 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 4.296 billion yuan, 4.905 billion yuan, and 5.436 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.94%, 14.18%, and 10.83% [4][3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.90 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.14 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.76X, 12.93X, and 11.67X [4][3]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 51.826 billion yuan in 2025 to 58.709 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.15% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 45.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 703 million RMB, down 42.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.54 million RMB, down 85.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a decrease in overall demand in the integrated stove industry [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its transition to computing power leasing, with revenue from this segment expected to grow as it partners with Suiyuan Technology, a domestic chip unicorn [1][2]. - The company anticipates a stabilization in the integrated stove market as the real estate market recovers, which may lead to a narrowing of revenue declines [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the integrated stove business generated 590 million RMB in revenue, a decrease of 46.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in new home sales [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 39.7%, down 9.0 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a shift in product structure [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.8%, down 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 104 million RMB, 117 million RMB, and 148 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75 RMB, 0.84 RMB, and 1.07 RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a significant reduction in expense ratios in 2025, which may help to release profits [4]. - The target price of 45.00 RMB corresponds to a 60x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the anticipated growth in the computing power leasing business [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 21.42 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, up 244% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 24.3 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 2 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2][4]. - The strong Q1 performance was attributed to favorable pig prices during the off-season and a significant reduction in production costs. The company is expected to continue increasing output and reducing costs in 2025 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 8.59 million pigs, a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of RMB 15.2 per kg and a production cost of approximately RMB 12.9 per kg, resulting in a profit of RMB 283 per pig, compared to the industry average of RMB 93 [2][3]. - The company aims to sell between 33 to 35 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 16%, and plans to increase chicken sales by over 5% [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's total debt ratio has been decreasing quarterly, reaching 51% by Q1 2025. The company has also prioritized shareholder returns, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2.32 billion and share buybacks of RMB 660 million in 2024, accounting for 32% of the net profit [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upwards by 17% and 29%, respectively. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 9.4 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 19.4 billion, respectively [4][6].