Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 47.5 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.44 billion USD for FY25Q1, representing a 31% year-on-year increase. Excluding the revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan's self-operated products and live e-commerce, the revenue growth was 34% [1]. - The company achieved a net profit of 250 million USD, up 48% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 260 million USD, reflecting a 40% increase [1][2]. - The company continues to focus on enhancing service quality and operational efficiency to improve profitability while balancing growth and sustainability [1]. Financial Performance - The operating profit for the quarter was 290 million USD, a 43% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 300 million USD, up 23% [1]. - The company reported a GAAP operating profit margin of 23.7%, an increase of 370 basis points year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 24.4%, up 220 basis points [2]. - The company generated a net operating cash flow of 183.2 million USD for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately 4.9 billion USD at the end of the quarter [2]. Growth Projections - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for FY25-27, expecting revenues of 5.2 billion, 6.4 billion, and 7.5 billion USD respectively, with adjusted net profits of 560 million, 770 million, and 1.06 billion USD for the same periods [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate (downgraded)" for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.1 billion RMB for FY25H1, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with the main brand contributing 11.4 billion RMB, also down 8% [1] - The retail revenue accounted for 10.9 billion RMB, representing 84% of total revenue, down 9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million RMB, a decline of 35% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to enhance its online presence through live streaming and social media, with significant growth in sales on platforms like Douyin [1][3] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships and diversifying its product offerings, particularly in the outdoor sports segment [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25H1, the company reported total revenue of 13.1 billion RMB, down 8% year-on-year, with net profit of 870 million RMB, down 35% [1] - The company plans to adjust its revenue forecasts for FY25-27 to 26.9 billion RMB, 30.5 billion RMB, and 33.8 billion RMB respectively [4] Retail Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network by closing underperforming stores and enhancing the efficiency of existing ones [2] - As of FY25H1, the company had 5,813 stores, a reduction of 331 stores compared to the previous period [1] Brand Expansion - The company has initiated partnerships with brands like HOKA ONE ONE and KAILAS, and is the exclusive operator for the Canadian brand norda in China [3] - The collaboration with Fanatics aims to expand the commercialization of sports IP in the Greater China region [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month target price maintained at 5.53 HKD [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Xtep International's main brand has achieved a retail sales growth in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a discount rate of approximately 75% and an inventory turnover of about four months [1] - The subsidiary brand Saucony has shown remarkable performance with retail sales growth exceeding 50% year-on-year [1] - The company is strategically focusing on its running business by potentially divesting K-Swiss and Paladin to strengthen its market position in the running sector [1] - The new industrial park in Bengbu, Anhui, which commenced operations in May 2023, includes approximately 48,000 square meters of footwear production facilities and 25,000 square meters for apparel, aimed at meeting expanding business demands [1] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xtep International's total share capital is 2,644.52 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 14,624.18 million HKD [1] - The company has a net asset value per share of 3.90 HKD and a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.15% [1] Financial Projections - The revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 16 billion RMB, 17.9 billion RMB, and 19.8 billion RMB respectively [1] - Net profits are projected to be 1.21 billion RMB, 1.41 billion RMB, and 1.65 billion RMB for the same period, with corresponding EPS of 0.46 RMB, 0.53 RMB, and 0.63 RMB [1] - The expected P/E ratios are 11, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue, with FY2025H1 expected to see a revenue drop of approximately 20% and a net profit decrease of 42% to 46% year-on-year. However, adjusted profit margins may improve due to product structure optimization and cost control [1][2]. - The retail environment is currently volatile, with a significant decline in RSV (retail sales value) of 21% in FY2025Q2 compared to the previous year. The mainland market has seen a similar decline, impacting overall sales performance [1][2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on high-margin pricing products, which have shown better sales performance, helping to mitigate the overall decline in retail sales [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company expects a revenue decline of 16% and a net profit drop of 10%. The revenue for FY2025 is projected at 91.03 billion HKD, with a net profit of 5.84 billion HKD [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 94.68 billion HKD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.3%. The net profit for the same year was 5.38 billion HKD, reflecting a -19.8% change [3][4]. Market Analysis - The retail sales in the mainland for July to September 2024 saw a decline of 21%, with direct store sales dropping by 24.3% and franchise store sales by 20.3%. The high gold prices have pressured the sales of gold jewelry, while fixed-price products have performed well [1][2]. - The company has optimized its store structure, with a total of 7,113 stores globally as of September 2024, including 6,968 in the mainland. The company is slowing down its store opening pace and closing underperforming locations [1][2]. Profitability Outlook - The adjusted profit margin is expected to improve due to better product mix and cost management, despite the overall revenue decline. The company aims to enhance profitability through strategic pricing and product offerings [1][2]. - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is 0.59 HKD, with a projected P/E ratio of 13.4 times [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) [2][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY [6] - Domestic online strategy adjustments have shown significant results, with key channels like Tmall and blind box machines experiencing accelerated growth [6] - The company's "IP X Category X Globalization" strategy continues to evolve, with strong performance from key IPs like Labubu and SkullPanda, and rapid expansion in overseas markets [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: - Mainland China: +55%-60% YoY - Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas: +440%-445% YoY [6] - Key domestic channel growth in Q3 2024: - Retail stores: +30%-35% YoY - Robot stores: +20%-25% YoY - Blind box machines: +55%-60% YoY - E-commerce and other online platforms: +135%-140% YoY [6] - Financial projections for 2024-2026: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 27.9/36.2/45.4 billion yuan - EPS: 2.07/2.70/3.38 yuan - PE ratio: 34/26/21x [2][6] IP and Product Performance - Labubu: - "ZIMOMO Big Angel" received over 170,000 reservations on JD - New "THE MONSTERS Building Blocks Series 2" recently launched [6] - SkullPanda: - First plush product "Soft and Tough" launched in October 2024, with an average resale price of nearly 2,800 yuan on secondary markets [6] - New IP "Starman": - First blind box series sold over 9,000 units on Tmall by October 25, 2024 [6] Global Expansion - Overseas store count reached 83 by H1 2024, with plans to add 30-40 new stores in H2 2024, focusing on North America and Southeast Asia [6] - The 100th overseas store opened in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 19, 2024, indicating accelerated global expansion [6] Valuation and Market Data - Current stock price: 70.75 HKD [4] - Market capitalization: 95,013.23 million HKD [4] - Historical stock price range: 78.00 HKD (high) / 16.90 HKD (low) over the past year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Electronics, with a target price based on the last closing price of 5.97 HKD [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The global TV market is experiencing strong demand for large high-end products, and panel production capacity is shifting towards Chinese companies, which may lead to increased concentration among Chinese TV brands [3]. - TCL Electronics, as a leading player in the global TV industry, is seeing a continuous increase in its market share for smart screens and high-end large screen products. The profitability of its internet business remains stable, and innovative businesses such as solar energy and comprehensive marketing are growing rapidly, enhancing brand strength [3]. - The domestic business is expected to benefit from the appliance replacement policy, leading to further growth [3]. - The projected net profits for TCL Electronics from 2024 to 2026 are 1.415 billion, 1.610 billion, and 1.931 billion HKD, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.64, and 0.77 HKD [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, TCL's global TV shipments reached 20.01 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. In Q3 2024 alone, shipments totaled 7.49 million units, up 19.7% [1]. - The average screen size of global shipments reached 51.8 inches, with shipments of 65 inches and above increasing by 16.8%, and those of 75 inches and above rising by 35.3% [1]. - In the Chinese market, shipments increased by 5.3%, with the Thunderbird brand seeing a remarkable growth of 46.6% [1]. Regional Market Insights - In Europe, shipments grew by 35.5%, with shipments of 75 inches and above soaring by 126.5% [1]. - In North America, shipments increased by 8.2% in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a significant rise of 27.5% [1]. - Emerging markets also saw a 6.0% increase in shipments, with Latin America and the Middle East/Africa markets growing by 12.1% and 22.7%, respectively [1]. Product Innovation - TCL's Mini LED TV shipments saw a remarkable growth of 162.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with domestic shipments increasing by 181.1% [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for XPeng Motors, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near term [1][5]. Core Insights - XPeng Motors achieved a record high in vehicle deliveries, with 21,352 units delivered in September 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [1][2]. - The launch of the MONA M03 model significantly boosted sales, with over 10,000 units delivered shortly after its release, highlighting consumer demand for high-performance, cost-effective electric vehicles [4][5]. - Despite strong performance in September, XPeng Motors faces challenges in meeting its annual sales target of 280,000 units, having completed only about 35% of this goal by the end of the third quarter [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 30,676 million in 2023 to 51,394 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 67.54% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 10,376 million in 2023 to a loss of 8,267 million in 2024, with a forecasted return to profitability in 2026 with a net profit of 895 million [1][6]. - The company's operating cash flow is projected to improve significantly, with a forecast of 12,567 million in 2025 and 19,721 million in 2026 [6][7]. Sales Performance - The MONA M03 model's competitive pricing and advanced features have driven its popularity, with a price range of 119,800 to 155,800 yuan and a low energy consumption rate of 11.5 kWh/100 km [4][5]. - XPeng Motors has made significant strides in international markets, particularly in Thailand and Singapore, where it has seen promising sales figures shortly after launching [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its product lineup with new models, including the high-end P7+, which is expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring advanced AI technology [5]. - XPeng Motors aims to increase its global market presence, with plans to enter at least 40 countries and regions by the end of the year, indicating a strong growth strategy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$15.50 [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture is seen as beneficial for Li Ning, allowing the company to focus on the domestic market while leveraging external expertise for overseas expansion. The joint venture aims to achieve revenue of US$1 billion in its fourth year, reflecting the company's commitment to international growth [4][5]. - Li Ning's overseas business currently accounts for approximately 2% of total revenue, with expectations for significant growth through the joint venture [4]. - The financial projections indicate a modest revenue growth of 2.2% in 2024, with further increases of 3.9% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, RMB 29.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.4 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.19 for 2024, RMB 1.27 for 2025, and RMB 1.34 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for JD Group [2][4]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit from the appliance trade-in policy and the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival, with a projected stable GMV growth in Q3 and a potential outperformance compared to the retail market [2][3]. - The company is forecasted to achieve revenue growth of 5% annually from 2024 to 2026, with non-GAAP net profit expected to grow significantly, particularly in 2024 with a 22% increase [2][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: 1,046.2 billion CNY in 2022, 1,084.7 billion CNY in 2023, and expected growth to 1,137.8 billion CNY in 2024, 1,198.9 billion CNY in 2025, and 1,261.1 billion CNY in 2026 [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 28.2 billion CNY in 2022, increasing to 35.2 billion CNY in 2023, and further to 42.9 billion CNY in 2024, 47.3 billion CNY in 2025, and 51.0 billion CNY in 2026 [3][11]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin improvement, with expectations of 15.4% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 15.8% in 2026 [11][12]. Market Context - The report highlights that JD Group is a key beneficiary of the government's appliance trade-in policy, which has already seen over 10 million consumers participating, leading to significant sales boosts [1][2]. - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is anticipated to enhance JD's sales performance, with extensive promotional activities planned [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the soft drink industry, driven by its dual business segments of packaged water and beverages [1] - The company's revenue in 2023 reached 42.667 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.36%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.079 billion yuan, up 42.19% year-on-year [1] - The beverage segment surpassed packaged water in revenue for the first time in 2023, contributing 49% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 55% [1] - The company's strong brand positioning and nationwide water source strategy have built a significant moat, supporting its premium brand image [1] Industry Overview Packaged Water Market - The Chinese packaged water market reached 215 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.1% from 2018 to 2023 [1] - The top five players in the market account for 58.6% of the market share, with the company holding a leading 23.6% share [1] - The market is expected to grow to 314.3 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 7.9% [32] Beverage Market - The Chinese beverage market reached 694.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.0% from 2018 to 2023 [47] - Tea beverages, functional beverages, and juice beverages are the key growth drivers, with tea beverages contributing 21% of the market share [47] - The market is expected to grow to 888.8 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 5.1% [47] Company Performance Revenue and Profit - In 2023, the company's revenue was 42.667 billion yuan, up 28.36% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 12.079 billion yuan, up 42.19% year-on-year [1] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 49.254 billion yuan in 2024, 58.756 billion yuan in 2025, and 66.854 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12.754 billion yuan in 2024, 15.655 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.113 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Product Segments - Packaged water contributed 47% of revenue in 2023, with a growth rate of 11% [1] - Tea beverages contributed 30% of revenue, with a growth rate of 83%, driven by the success of the "Oriental Leaf" brand [2] - Functional beverages contributed 11% of revenue, with a growth rate of 28%, led by the "Scream" brand [2] - Juice beverages contributed 8% of revenue, with a growth rate of 23%, driven by products like "Farmer's Orchard" [2] Brand and Marketing - The company has built a strong brand image around "natural and healthy" through long-term multi-dimensional marketing campaigns [1] - The company's advertising campaigns, such as "A Little Sweet" and "We Don't Produce Water, We Just Deliver Nature," have deeply resonated with consumers [16][41] - The company has also leveraged sports marketing, sponsoring events like the Olympics and partnering with international sports organizations [43] Supply Chain and Production - The company has established 12 major water sources across China, ensuring high-quality supply and supporting its premium brand image [45] - The company's production facilities are highly automated, with 144 production lines for packaged water and beverages, capable of producing 81,000 bottles per hour [45] - The company uses a combination of road, rail, and water transport to ensure efficient distribution across the country [45] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in both packaged water and beverage segments, driven by its strong brand and product innovation [2] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 18.113 billion yuan by 2026 [5] - The company's focus on health-conscious products, such as sugar-free tea and functional beverages, positions it well to capitalize on the growing health trend in China [47]