Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 138 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 42 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains robust, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on business travel outbound demand [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025E: RMB 61,694 million (down 1.0% from previous forecast) - 2026E: RMB 69,889 million (down 1.6%) - 2027E: RMB 78,816 million (down 2.2%) [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 18,084 million, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 29.3% [4]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17,927 million, with a net profit margin of 29.1% [4]. - **Market Position**: - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3][6]. Earnings Performance Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase in various segments: - Hotel accommodation: RMB 5,541 million (up 23% year-on-year) - Transportation ticketing: RMB 5,418 million (up 8%) - Vacation services: RMB 947 million (up 7%) - Corporate travel: RMB 573 million (up 12%) [6]. - The company’s gross profit for the first quarter was RMB 11,125 million, with a gross profit margin of 80.3% [6]. Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, the company expects: - Hotel accommodation revenue to reach RMB 6,000 million (up 17%) - Transportation ticketing revenue to be around RMB 5,300 million (up 9%) - Total revenue projected at RMB 14,600 million (up 14%) [8]. - The company is also focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in the market, with expectations of stable growth in business volume as the industry recovers [5][6].

核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 维持买入评级，调整目标价至 56.04 港元。贝壳作为国内房产经纪龙头，不断塑造 平台价值以强化市占优势，在地产修复周期中向上弹性较大，并且 "三翼"业务具 备发展潜力。根据 25 年一季度业绩公告，我们调整了各项业务营收增速及贡献利润 率，以及期间费用率，调整公司 25-26 年 Non-GAAP EPS 预测值为 2.06、2.68 元 （原预测为 2.06、2.44 元），并引入 27 年预测值 3.56 元。参考 25 年可比公司调 整后平均 25 倍 PE，对应目标价 56.04 港元（1 港元=0.919 人民币）。 风险提示：房地产销售不及预期。佣金率不及预期。家装、租赁业务发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,080 | 128,165 | 146,106 | | 同比增长 (%) | 28.2% | 20.2% | 17.8% ...

25Q1 业绩略超预期，持续夯实平台规模优 势 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 | | | 夯实平台规模优势，放眼修复周期 2025-03-30 平台溢价，不惧牛熊 2025-02-23 ⚫ 维持买入评级，调整目标价至 56.04 港元。贝壳作为国内房产经纪龙头，不断塑造 平台价值以强化市占优势，在地产修复周期中向上弹性较大，并且 "三翼"业务具 备发展潜力。根据 25 年一季度业绩公告，我们调整了各项业务营收增速及贡献利润 率，以及期间费用率，调整公司 25-26 年 Non-GAAP EPS 预测值为 2.06、2.68 元 （原预测为 2.06、2.44 元），并引入 27 年预测值 3.56 元。参考 25 年可比公司调 整后平均 25 倍 PE，对应目标价 56.04 港元（1 港元=0.919 人民币）。 风险提示：房地产销售不及预期。佣金率不及预期。家装、租赁业务发展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 77,7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 138.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. However, the profit margin decreased compared to the previous year [1][9] - The company is strategically increasing investments in international platforms while maintaining flexibility in marketing strategies, which is expected to enhance growth opportunities [3][12] - The company is leveraging the recovery in inbound tourism and the growth of outbound travel, with significant increases in hotel bookings and international travel reservations [2][10] Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company reported accommodation booking revenue of 55.4 billion yuan (+23.2%), transportation ticketing revenue of 54.2 billion yuan (+8.4%), and other income sources showing substantial growth [2][10] - Domestic hotel bookings continue to grow, with a double-digit increase in room nights, while outbound travel bookings have recovered over 120%, outpacing industry capacity growth [2][10] - The international platform saw a booking increase of over 60%, driven by favorable visa policies and a significant rise in inbound tourism [2][10] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2025, attributed to increased personnel costs and strategic investments in international expansion [3][11] - The sales expense ratio for Q1 was 21.4%, which is below the annual budget, indicating a flexible approach to marketing expenditures [3][11] - The company expects profit growth to lag behind revenue growth in the short term due to margin pressures, with a projected CAGR of 11% for profits versus 15% for revenue over the next three years [12] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of 182 billion yuan, 209 billion yuan, and 244 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [12][19] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 61.6 billion yuan in 2025, 71.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 81.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][19] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position and is proposing an additional share buyback plan, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10][8]. Core Insights - The company has entered a profitable era with significant user value being released, as evidenced by a strong growth trajectory in revenue and profitability [4][5]. - The gaming segment continues to show robust growth, with a notable increase in revenue driven by popular titles [6][8]. - The advertising revenue is experiencing rapid growth, supported by AI-driven strategies that enhance operational efficiency [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 22,528 million HKD, with a projected increase to 30,688 million HKD by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 19.10% [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 2,147 million HKD, with a significant improvement from a loss of 3,414 million HKD in 2023 [3][8]. - The gross margin has been on an upward trend, reaching 36.3% in Q1 2025, with high-margin businesses like gaming and advertising contributing to this improvement [5][8]. User Engagement and Growth - Monthly active users reached a historical high of 368 million in Q1 2025, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5]. - The number of paying users has also increased, with 32 million monthly paying users reported [5][7]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company generated 20 billion HKD from advertising, a 20% year-on-year increase, accounting for 29% of total revenue [6]. - The gaming segment contributed 17.3 billion HKD in revenue, marking a 76% increase year-on-year, driven by the success of titles like "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [6][8]. - Value-added services generated 28.1 billion HKD in Q1 2025, with a stable membership base of 23.5 million [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30,688 million HKD, 33,499 million HKD, and 36,145 million HKD respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 2,147 million HKD, 3,140 million HKD, and 3,972 million HKD [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/E ratio of 25.66 in 2025, decreasing to 13.87 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels in the reporting period [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by the light-asset strategy, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.72 percentage points to 14.46% [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027, reflecting a steady upward trend [12].

传媒/数字媒体 《广告及游戏拉动收入加速增长，单 季度盈利可期—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.23 方光照（分析师） 田鹏（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK） 2025Q1 游戏收入大增且连续盈利，流量稳步增长 2025 年 05 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 140.20 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 238.80/98.900 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 599.02 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 586.02 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.27 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 4.18 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 83.72 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 哔哩哔哩-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2024Q4 全面盈利，游戏、广告或继 续驱动业绩增长—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2025.2.21 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 33.5, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 28.70 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 5.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of RMB 890 million, up 35.7% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase [7]. - The company is focusing on a light-asset strategy, with rental and owned income accounting for 51.7% of total revenue, while management franchise and licensing contributed 46.3% [3][7]. - The overall hotel count reached 11,685, with 11,564 under the main brand and 121 under the DH division, indicating a net addition of 539 hotels [7]. - The gross margin improved by 0.74 percentage points to 33.2%, driven by reduced operating costs due to the light-asset strategy [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in RevPAR as the peak season approaches, despite short-term pressures from competition and economic factors [7]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.68 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 15%, and 14.6% [9][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.20, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.58 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x, indicating reasonable valuation [9][12]. - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 25.15 billion in 2025 to RMB 29.85 billion by 2027 [12].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 亿回购额度基础上提议新增港股回购计划。整体上公司作为国内领先在线旅 游龙头，基本盘稳健且护城河深厚，良好的现金流下股东回报态度更积极， 新业务打开中线成长空间，参考海外龙头值得享估值溢价，维持"优于大市"。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,627 | 71,093 | 81,870 | | (+/-%) | 122.1% | 19.7% | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.2% | | 经调整净利润(百万元) | 13071 | 18041 | 18241 | 20938 | 24442 | | (+/-%) | 910.1% | 38.0% | 1.1% | 14.8% | 16.7% | | 每股收益（元） | 18.32 | 25.28 | 25.56 | 29.34 | 34.25 | | EBIT Margin | 46.3% | 33. ...

1Q25 风险指标略有波动，但仍然健康 证券研究报告 奇富科技 (QFIN US/3660 HK) 1Q25：利润合预期，质量小幅波动 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 21 日│美国/中国香港 | 其他多元金融 | 奇富科技 1Q25 业绩：收入 46.9 亿元（环比/同比：+4.7/+12.9%），归母净 利润 18.0 亿元（环比/同比：-6.1/+54.6%）。利润基本符合我们此前 17.5 亿元的预期，处于公司指引区间 17.5-18.5 亿元的中枢。风险指标略有上升， C-M2 比率升至 0.6%（4Q24：0.57%），但仍属健康水平，低于 1Q21-4Q24 的均值 0.62%。拨备覆盖率进一步升至 666%（4Q24：617%），表明盈利 质量较高。放款量 889 亿元，环比略降 1.1%，在有春节假期的情况下能够 几乎持平，可能反映了需求略有回暖。行业内仍在评估"助贷新规"的影响， 新规将于 10 月 1 日起施行，建议持续关注。公司是行业内体量较大的平台， 或仍将采取谨慎的经营策略，预计 25 年 ...