港股通 证券研究报告 特海国际 (9658 HK) 同店经营延续靓丽，盈利质量改善 华泰研究 季报点评 2024 年 11 月 26 日│中国香港 餐饮 特海国际 3Q24 营收 1.99 亿美元/yoy+14.6%；经营利润 14.9 百万美元/yoy +52.0%，经营利润率 7.5%/yoy+1.8pct；归母净利润 0.38 亿美元/同比转正。 若剔除汇兑损益影响，我们计算得调整后经营利润率约 5.9%/yoy+2.9pct。 公司年内较好平衡开店速度与单店质量，3Q 作为传统旺季，得益于运营质 量强化，同店 ASP 及翻台均有提升，拉动收入与盈利双增。不同地区来看， 东南亚成熟地区维持翻台及客单稳健增长，东亚管理调整效果显著。新 CEO 上任以来，公司持续打磨全球门店管理和供应链水平、产品力不断增强，我 们认为 4Q 旺季有望延续高翻台表现。公司积极落地多品牌计划，培育面馆、 清真火锅等新品类单店模型，中长期成长潜力可观。维持"买入"评级。 旺季翻台/客单价增势不减，东亚地区表现靓丽；毛利率持续提升 3Q24 餐厅/外卖收入达 1.91/0.03 亿美元，yoy+14.5/+8.3%。整体店单店日 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年11月26日 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 优于大市 Q3 营收利润环比回落，新房业务持续跑赢市场 Q3 营收同比增长环比回落，利润同环比均回落。收入端，2024Q3，公司实现 GTV 交易总额 7368 亿元，同比+12%，环比-12%；营业收入 226 亿元，同比+27%， 环比-3%。利润端，2024Q3，公司实现经调整归母净利润 18 亿元，同比-17%， 环比-34%；经调整归母净利率 7.9%，毛利率 23%，同环比均回落。 存量房业务表现与地产政策节奏一致，Q3 环比 Q2 回落，但展望 Q4 将显著 回升。2024Q3，公司存量房业务 GTV 为 4778 亿元，同比+9%，环比-16%；收 入 62 亿元，同比-1%，环比-15%。2024Q2，公司存量房业务货币化率 1.30%， 同比下降一方面是因为结构性因素，链家交易额的占比下降，另一方面 2023 年 9 月起链家在北京下调了存量房佣金费率，再往后基数影响会消退；存量 房业务贡献利润率 41.0%，环比降低，主要由于链家经纪人数量增加及员工 福利改善带来固定薪酬成本增加。 新房业务市占率和货币化率持续提升。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is the largest and fastest-growing enterprise in the trendy toy industry, with a strong IP-centric strategy and successful overseas expansion, contributing nearly 30% of revenue by H1 2024 [4] - The trendy toy market in China has grown from 6.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 60 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR exceeding 30%, and the company holds an 8.5% market share, ranking first [4] - The company's IP development, operation, and supply chain capabilities are leading, with a membership base of 38.93 million by H1 2024, contributing over 90% of sales and a repurchase rate of around 45% [5] Business Overview - The company has a comprehensive IP matrix, with core IPs like SKULLPANDA, MOLLY, DIMOO, and THE MONSTERS showing strong growth and long lifecycles [5] - The company's IP commercialization success rate is high, and its category expansion strategy, including games, theme parks, plush toys, and building blocks, has been well-received [6] - Overseas revenue has shown phenomenal growth, with stores opened in over 20 countries/regions, and overseas revenue accounting for nearly 30% by H1 2024 [6] Growth Drivers - The company's IP commercialization success rate is high, and its category expansion strategy has driven rapid same-store growth domestically [6] - Overseas revenue has shown phenomenal growth, with sufficient space for further store openings, and cultural export has been smooth [6] - The company's membership system, with 38.93 million members by H1 2024, contributes over 90% of sales and has a repurchase rate of around 45% [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have maintained rapid growth, with a 62% YoY increase in revenue to 4.56 billion yuan in H1 2024 [60] - The company's gross margin has remained above 60%, with a net margin recovering to over 15% by H1 2024 [69] - The company's operating cash flow has shown a clear upward trend, reaching 1.91 billion yuan in H1 2024 [74] Industry Overview - The trendy toy market in China has grown from 6.8 billion yuan in 2015 to 60 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR exceeding 30%, and is expected to reach 110 billion yuan by 2026 [17] - The market concentration in China's trendy toy industry is low, with the company holding an 8.5% market share, ranking first [22] - Consumers' primary reasons for purchasing trendy toys are the element of surprise and their love for the IPs, with 46.78% of consumers citing surprise and 38.95% citing IP as their main motivations [27] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.61 billion yuan, 3.51 billion yuan, and 4.24 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing YoY growth of 141%, 35%, and 21%, respectively [138] - The company's absolute valuation is estimated at 91.1-112.1 HKD, with a relative valuation of 84.2-103.6 HKD, based on a 2025 PE multiple of 30-40x [149]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究/ 公 司 点 评 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 11 月 25 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 133.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6887.05 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 180.50/116.00 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 4,289.61 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,210.78 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0822 | 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -31% 19% 69% 11/2712/2701/2702/2703/2704/2705/2706/2707/2708/2709/2710/27 HSCEI 网易-S 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (9626 HK) [5] Core Views - Bilibili achieved its first quarterly profit in 24Q3, with Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 236 million [5] - Revenue reached RMB 7 306 billion in 24Q3, up 26% YoY [5] - Gross profit surged 76% YoY to RMB 2 547 billion, with gross margin increasing 9 9 percentage points to 34 9% [5] - The company announced a share repurchase plan of up to $200 million over the next 24 months [5] Business Performance Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue grew 28% YoY to RMB 2 09 billion in 24Q3, driven by improved platform infrastructure, optimized algorithms, and enriched ad products [5] - Value-added services revenue increased 9% YoY to RMB 2 82 billion, with 21 97 million paying members and over 80% annual subscription or auto-renewal rate [5] - Mobile games revenue surged 84% YoY to RMB 1 82 billion, mainly due to the strong performance of the long-term operation game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic World" [5] Operational Data - DAU reached 107 million and MAU reached 348 million in 24Q3, both hitting record highs [6] - Average daily usage time reached 106 minutes, also a historical high [6] - Daily video views increased 23% YoY in 24Q3 [6] - Nearly 2 7 million UP主 earned income on Bilibili in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] Profitability - Operating cash flow reached RMB 2 226 billion in 24Q3, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow [6] - Deferred revenue surged 159% YoY to RMB 381 million in 24Q3 [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 26 7 billion in 2024 and RMB 30 6 billion in 2025 [7]

[Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$3.55 目标价 HK$5.42 HTI ESG 4.0-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$57.13bn / US$7.34bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$43.64mn 发行股票数目 16,092mn 自由流通股 (%) 31% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$6.15-HK$2.61 注：现价 HK$3.55 为 2024 年 11 月 22 日收盘价 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -9.9% 17.9% -24.0% 绝对值（美元） -10.0% 18.1% -23.9% 相对 MSCI China -2.9% 8.6% -31.8% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Mar-23A Mar-24A Mar-25E Mar-26E Revenue 26,763 27,027 29,777 32,795 Revenue (+/-) 30% ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 40.00, implying a 21.6% upside potential [1][4][47] Core Views - Yancoal Australia is a Chinese state-owned coal mining company with operations in Australia, producing both thermal coal for power generation and metallurgical coal for the steel industry [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rebound in demand, particularly from China, as trade cooperation between China and Australia strengthens [1][16] - Thermal coal prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing geopolitical risks, increasing thermal power generation in China, and stable demand from other Asian regions [1][22] - Metallurgical coal prices are expected to follow the recovery in the steel market, supported by recent government measures to stabilize the real estate sector in China [2][27] - The company is expected to see a rebound in earnings by FY26, driven by higher thermal and metallurgical coal prices and increased thermal coal sales [3][37] Financial Performance and Forecasts - FY24 revenue is expected to decline by 12.6% to AUD 6.8 billion due to lower coal prices, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to drop by 28.6% to AUD 1.3 billion [3][37] - FY25 net profit is forecasted to decline by 6.1% to AUD 1.2 billion, but a rebound of 5.4% is expected in FY26 to AUD 1.3 billion, driven by higher coal prices and increased sales [3][37] - Thermal coal sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from FY23 to FY26, reaching 34.6 million tons, while metallurgical coal sales are expected to recover slightly in FY25 and FY26 [31][34] - The company's unit cash operating cost (excluding royalties) is expected to increase from AUD 92/ton in FY24 to AUD 98/ton in FY26 [38] Sensitivity Analysis - A 1.0% change in thermal coal prices in FY24 would result in a 2.44% change in net profit, while a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would result in a 0.62% change [3][40] - In FY25, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.73%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.65% [41] - For FY26, a 1.0% change in thermal coal prices would impact net profit by 2.66%, and a 1.0% change in metallurgical coal prices would impact net profit by 0.62% [41] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with FY22-23 payout ratios of 45.2% and 50.5%, respectively [42] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain at 49.8% for FY24-26 [42][43] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25 P/E ratio of 7.0x is below the peer average of 7.1x, suggesting potential for higher valuation given the expected earnings rebound and increased export opportunities to China [47] - The target price of HKD 40.00 implies an 8.5x FY25 P/E ratio and a 21.6% upside potential [1][47] Operational Highlights - Yancoal Australia operates 7 mines in Australia, with a total annual production capacity of 70 million tons of raw coal and 55 million tons of saleable coal [17] - Thermal coal accounts for 77.0% of the company's coal sales revenue in 1H24, while metallurgical coal contributes 21.4% [17] - China is the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 33.2% of coal sales revenue in 1H24, followed by Japan (23.4%), Taiwan (16.7%), and South Korea (15.1%) [17][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of HKD 124.15 [5][11] Core Views - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 33.56 billion (YoY -2.6%), in line with Bloomberg expectations, while adjusted net profit was RMB 5.89 billion (YoY -19%) [3] - Core advertising revenue remains under pressure, with ad revenue at RMB 18.8 billion (YoY -4.6%), while non-marketing revenue grew 12.4% YoY to RMB 7.7 billion, driven by intelligent cloud business [3] - Baidu's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 51.1% (YoY -1.6pct), with core gross margin at 58.8% (YoY -1.3pct) [3] - AI capabilities are a long-term strategic focus, with Ernie Bot daily calls reaching 1.5 billion and user base at 430 million [3] - Intelligent driving commercialization is progressing, with RoboTaxi completing 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%) and cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Baidu's core revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 26.5 billion (YoY -0.2%), slightly better than Bloomberg's expectation of -0.8% YoY [3] - Adjusted operating profit margin for Baidu core was 25.1% in Q3 2024 (YoY +0pct, QoQ -1.1pct) [3] - For 2024E, Baidu's revenue is expected to be RMB 131.9 billion (YoY -2.0%), with adjusted net profit of RMB 26.5 billion [11] - The company's 2024E adjusted PE is maintained at 12x, implying a market cap of RMB 317.7 billion [11] AI and Cloud Business - Ernie Bot ecosystem has attracted 150,000 enterprises and 800,000 developers, with PaddlePaddle ecosystem serving 430,000 enterprises and creating 1.01 million models [3] - Over 60% of central state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises have chosen Baidu Intelligent Cloud for AI innovation [3] - Cloud business revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 4.922 billion (YoY +11.0%), contributing significantly to non-marketing revenue growth [10] Intelligent Driving - RoboTaxi service completed 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%), with cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] - The sixth-generation autonomous vehicle RT6 has been deployed in multiple cities [3]

26 Nov 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update BYDE (285 HK) NDR takeaways: Apple, NEV products and AI server are key growth drivers in 2025 We hosted BYDE at 4Q outlook NDR call. Mgmt. highlighted their positive outlook across all segments in 4Q24/2025: 1) Apple/Android: iPad share gains, Jabil's enhanced automation and high-end Android demand; 2) NEV: rising penetration and installation of high-end ADAS and suspension products to drive growth; 3) AI server ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866 HK) with a target price of HK$47 9 and a target market cap of $12 8 billion [3][5] Core Views - NIO's Q3 2024 performance showed strong delivery numbers with 61 855 vehicles delivered including 61 023 NIO brand and 832 Onvo brand vehicles Revenue declined 2 1% YoY but increased 7% QoQ to RMB18 67 billion with gross margin improving to 10 7% [3] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB19 68-20 38 billion representing 15%-19 2% YoY growth driven by the Onvo brand despite potential softness in NIO brand sales [3] - NIO is rapidly expanding its product matrix with the NT3 0 platform's first model ET9 set for launch in December 2024 and delivery in March 2025 priced at RMB800 000 The Onvo brand is expected to drive growth with new SUV models launching in 2025 [3] - The company aims to double its 2025 sales compared to 2024 supported by its expanding product portfolio and charging infrastructure with 2 737 battery swap stations and 24 282 charging piles globally as of November 20 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 gross margin improved by 2 8pct YoY and 1 1pct QoQ to 10 7% with automotive gross margin reaching 13 1% due to lower BOM costs Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB4 4 billion with a loss margin of 23 6% [3] - For 2024-2026 the report forecasts sales of 220 000 400 000 and 490 000 vehicles respectively with total revenues of RMB66 1 billion RMB102 8 billion and RMB122 1 billion Non-GAAP net loss margins are expected to improve from -27% in 2024 to -11% in 2026 [3] - The company's financials show a strong cash position with RMB32 94 billion in cash and equivalents as of Q3 2024 and total assets of RMB117 38 billion [9] Product and Market Strategy - NIO's product strategy includes the launch of the ET9 under the NIO brand new SUV models under the Onvo brand and the debut of the Firefly brand targeting the compact car market in 2025 [3] - The company plans to expand its charging network significantly in 2025 to support its sales growth aiming for county-level coverage of battery swap stations [3] - NIO maintains a leading position in China's premium EV market with over 40% market share in the RMB300 000+ pure EV segment [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report values NIO at 0 9X 2025e P/S with a target market cap of $12 8 billion and a target price of HK$47 9 for the HK-listed shares and $6 2 for the US-listed shares [3] - Sales are expected to grow from 222 886 units in 2024 to 492 297 units in 2026 with the Onvo and Firefly brands contributing significantly to the growth [15]