707 重磅 BD 授权辉瑞，公司发展迈向新征 程 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·药品及生物科技(HS) 三生制药（01530.HK） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,836 | 9,108 | 19,229 | 13,174 | 14,885 | | 同比(%) | 14.08 | 16.24 | 111.13 | (31.49) | 12.98 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,549 | 2,090 | 9,908 | 4,474 | 5,169 | | 同比(%) | (19.09) | 34.93 | 373.98 | (54.85) | 15.54 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.65 | 0.87 | 4.13 | 1.87 | 2.15 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.43 | 21.07 | 4.45 | 9.85 | 8.52 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][11] Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3010.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and adjusted net profit of 127.6 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 12832/13637/14266 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in product revenue growth [3][11] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 433/489/518 billion yuan, with a decrease due to increased investment in the food delivery business [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue reached 2423.1 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year - Service revenue was 587.7 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [8] - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8] - JD Logistics reported Q1 2025 revenue of 469.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 0.31% [8] - New business revenue in Q1 2025 was 57.5 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 13.3 billion yuan due to increased investment [8] Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares for about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current closing price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales increasing by 2.7% to 94,000 units [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion by 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses projected for 2025 [4][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX and the new generation P7, which are expected to enhance sales and improve margins. The introduction of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle in Q4 2025 is anticipated to have a positive impact on gross margins [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong positioning among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with expectations for continued sales growth driven by new model launches and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which will enhance its competitive position and stimulate sales growth [7][8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% [4]. - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q1 2025 was 24.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [4]. Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, mainly due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5% [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB, respectively [8][9]. Financial Metrics - The report forecasts a net profit for 2026 of 4.6 billion RMB, with an EPS of 2.44 RMB [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a P/S ratio of 1.4 in 2025, decreasing to 0.8 by 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,076 million - 2024: RMB 1,710 million - 2025E: RMB 2,365 million - 2026E: RMB 3,331 million - 2027E: RMB 5,459 million - The net profit (loss) projections are: - 2023: (RMB 1,511 million) - 2024: (RMB 1,468 million) - 2025E: (RMB 800 million) - 2026E: (RMB 262 million) - 2027E: RMB 398 million [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic expectations for Taitasip's market performance [7][8]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected revenue growth reflects a robust increase, with expected revenues reaching RMB 18,221 million by 2033 [9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69%, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.00 and a low of HKD 10.62 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 7.65 million shares [6]. Analyst Contact - The report includes contact information for analysts Ethan Ding and Gloria Zhuge for further inquiries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue of 5.4 billion yuan represents a 2.2% year-on-year increase, aligning with the guidance of 0%-4% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA and net profit for Q1 2025 were 1.5 billion yuan and 780 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 5.3% and 0.5% respectively [7] - The domestic hotel segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has a robust membership system and an attractive investment return model, which is expected to attract more franchisees and accelerate store expansion [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 21.882 billion yuan for 2023, with a projected growth of 9% in 2024 and 5% in 2025 [3] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.926 billion yuan, representing a 29% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.2% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The total number of domestic hotels reached 11,564, marking a 19.4% increase, with a net addition of 539 hotels in Q1 2025 [7] Market Position - The company’s current stock price is 28.7 HKD, with a market capitalization of 174.1 billion HKD [4] - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 29.0% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 82.7% [4] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 1%-5% in Q2 2025, with domestic hotel revenue projected to grow by 3%-7% [7]

⚫ 根据公司年报，我们调整 FY26-27 的盈利预测，并引入 FY28 年的盈利预测，预测 FY26-28年每股收益分别为0.21、0.25和0.30元（原FY26-27为0.26和0.30元）， 参考可比公司，给予 FY26 年 15 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 3.45 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港币），维持"增持"评级。 ⚫ 风险提示：主力品牌终端需求的波动，去库存进度低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 滔搏 06110.HK 公司研究 | 年报点评 FY25 业绩承压，分红超预期 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 28,933 | 27,013 | 26,428 | 27,892 | 29,361 | | 同比增长 (%) | 6.9% | -6.6% | -2.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,748 | 1,593 | 1,775 | 2,049 | 2,443 | | 同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 1,076 - 2024: 1,710 - 2025E: 2,365 - 2026E: 3,331 - 2027E: 5,459 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 40.2% for 2023, 58.9% for 2024, 38.3% for 2025, 40.9% for 2026, and 63.9% for 2027 [3][13]. - The net profit (loss) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,511 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 398 million by 2027 [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic projections for Taitasip's market performance [7]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected free cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, with a forecast of RMB 865 million [9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69% [6]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 47.00 and HKD 10.62, respectively [6]. Analyst Coverage - The report is authored by analysts from BOCOM International, with contact details provided for further inquiries [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales of 94,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7% [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5% to 14.9% [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The expected year-on-year growth rates are 14.2% for 2023, 33.2% for 2024, and 110.9% for 2025E [4][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion in 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion in 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses expected in the earlier years [4][13]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX on May 28, which targets the market at the RMB 150,000 level, and the new generation P7 in Q3 2025. The company aims to enhance its product offerings and improve gross margins through these new launches [3][8]. - The company is also planning to introduce humanoid robots by 2026, which will be equipped with advanced AI capabilities, indicating a strategic move into the AI and robotics sector [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for Q1 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of -4.3 billion RMB, a decrease in losses by 69.8% year-on-year and 69.4% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The automotive business achieved a gross margin of 10.5%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating ongoing operational improvements [4] - The company is expected to enter a strong product cycle with new vehicle launches, which are anticipated to stimulate sales growth and enhance competitive positioning in the long term [7][8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 158.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.5% and a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The automotive business revenue was 143.7 billion RMB, up 159.2% year-on-year, driven by increased delivery volumes [4] - The company forecasts automotive sales for Q1 2025 to be between 102,000 and 108,000 units, with expected revenue of approximately 175 billion to 187 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 115.7% to 130.5% [5] Cost and Expenses - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 19.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%, while the R&D expense ratio decreased by 8.1 percentage points year-on-year to 12.5% [5] - Selling and administrative expenses were 19.5 billion RMB, up 40.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [5] Financial Outlook - The company expects revenues of 945.8 billion RMB, 1,476.3 billion RMB, and 1,700.8 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected to be -6.6 billion RMB, 46.4 billion RMB, and 75.4 billion RMB [8][9] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company's financial performance driven by new model cycles and organizational innovations [8]