今日（12月9日）市场盘整，有色金属板块领跌两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF （159876）随市回调，场内价格一度跌超2%，值得关注的是，截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购 2400万份，反映资金看好有色后市表现，逢跌进场抢筹！ 深交所数据显示，有色龙头ETF（159876）昨天单日获资金净申购2165万元。截至12月8日，有色龙头 ETF（159876）最新规模7.39亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 成份股方面，华锡有色、洛阳钼业跌超4%，中国铝业、南山铝业、江西铜业等个股跌逾3%，跌幅居 前，拖累指数表现。另一方面，云南锗业涨超3%，立中集团涨逾1%，山金国际、永兴材料等个股飘 红。 产业层面，国际铜价再创新高。东方证券指出，供给紧缺、关税担忧或持续推升铜价。铜矿端与冶炼端 供需矛盾或在"反内卷"落地预期下获得缓解，冶炼费有望止跌企稳，继续看好中期铜价及冶炼费迎来齐 升局面。 展望后市，东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产 生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。看好2026年 ...

行 行业周报 宏观因素影响当前价格，后续关注美联储议息会议 ——金属行业周报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 12 月 9 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 铝：当前铝价的向上驱动力更多来自宏观流动性宽松预期，宏观利好逐步被 市场消化后，短期铝价上涨动力或减弱。 黄金：在重要数据公布前，金价或维持震荡运行，目前市场普遍预期 12 月将 降息 25 个基点，若后续劳动力市场数据和美联储利率决议超出市场预期，或 引发金价波动。 锂：目前碳酸锂行业呈现阶段性供需偏紧状态，库存维持去化但后续或去库 放缓，短期价格或高位震荡。 稀土：分离厂虽有减产预期，但下游需求没有明显改善，短期稀土价格或震荡 运行，后续关注下游实际需求情况。 重点品种推荐 | 洛阳钼业 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 中金黄金 | 增持 | | 华友钴业 | 增持 | | 紫金矿业 | 增持 | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | 近三月行业指数走势图 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% ...

沪指12月9日下跌0.37%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有5个，涨幅居前的行业为综合、通信，涨幅分 别为3.45%、2.23%。跌幅居前的行业为有色金属、钢铁，跌幅分别为3.03%、2.47%。有色金属行业位 居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出529.92亿元，主力资金净流入的行业仅有3个，商贸零售行业净 流入资金11.43亿元；综合行业净流入资金4.32亿元；银行行业净流入资金7057.87万元。 主力资金净流出的行业有28个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金79.37亿元， 其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为56.16亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、非银金融、电力设备 等行业。 有色金属行业今日下跌3.03%，全天主力资金净流出79.37亿元，该行业所属的个股共138只，今日上涨 的有16只；下跌的有122只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有30只，其中，净流 入资金超3000万元的有5只，净流入资金居首的是中钨高新，今日净流入资金1.22亿元，紧随其后的是 盛达资源、博迁新材，净流入资金分别为8111.54万元、4330.22万元。有色金属行业资金净 ...

市场等待本周美联储议息会议，港股三大指数今日再度走低，恒指及国指均跌超1%，恒科指数一度跌 超2%。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.29%或331.13点，报25434.23点，全日成交额为2102.36亿港元；恒生国 企指数跌1.62%，报8936.41点；恒生科技指数跌1.9%，报5554.68点。 中金指出，关于近期港股为何在三地中走得更弱，资金面上可以找到一些解释：1）南向过去几周持续 萎缩，港股不在基准的话可能导致调仓；对比之下，港股IPO 一点不少，且上半年集中上市的大票纷纷 到了6个月解禁期；2）日央行下周加息担忧挥之不去；3）美联储本周虽然降息，但觉得也很难鸽派， 所以美债利率不降反升，诸如此类。 蓝筹股表现 药明生物(02269)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨1.88%，报33.56港元，成交额14.34亿港元，贡献恒指3.64点。 交银国际指，2025年CXO整体订单和业绩复苏势头明显。该行预计，随着下游融资边际改善+出海热潮 带动上游景气度逐步进一步回升，2026年板块有望维持较快的业绩增速。但在美国药品相关监管收紧、 新药研发难度升级的长期大趋势下，行业整合或才刚拉开序幕，未来将继续淘汰落后产能及企业 ...

1. 有色金属股跌幅居前。截至收盘，江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)跌6.51%，报33.58港元；洛阳钼业 （603993）(03993)跌6.42%，报17.92港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)跌5.69%，报10.77港元；紫金矿 业（601899）(02899)跌4.24%，报32.5港元。 盘面上，大型科技股悉数下跌，阿里巴巴跌1.63%，腾讯跌0.41%。特朗普宣布允许英伟达对华出售 H200芯片，芯片股集体走低，中芯国际跌超4%，数据中心股万国数据则涨超2%；内房股普遍下行，雅 居乐集团跌超18%；水泥、钢铁、石油、航空股等承压。另一边，部分医药股逆势走强，歌礼制药 ASC30治疗肥胖症的13周II期研究取得积极顶线结果，股价劲升18%。 市场预计日本央行将调整加息步伐；欧洲央行执委Schnabel的鹰派讲话，促使市场押注明年加息；美联 储影子主席哈塞特发表的不够鸽派的言论，同样打压明年降息预期。分析人士指出，市场几乎已消化美 联储本周降息的预期，但投资者认为其政策声明和主席鲍威尔的讲话可能暗示进一步降息的门槛提高。 市场等待本周美联储议息会议，港股三大指数今日再度走低，恒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index dropping over 1% and 2% respectively, leading to a widespread sell-off in Hang Seng bull certificates [1][3]. Market Performance - On December 9, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a decline exceeding 2% [3]. - A variety of Hang Seng bull certificates suffered drastic losses, with some, like the Hang Seng Bank 80 Bull V, dropping over 74% [1][4]. Market Influences - The recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to external factors, particularly the ongoing decline in the global bond market and expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates [1][6]. - The average daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market has decreased to approximately HKD 195.1 billion, down 15.4% from HKD 230.7 billion in November, indicating potential liquidity issues [5]. Sector Performance - New consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market have collectively declined, with notable drops in companies like Pop Mart and Blukoo, which fell over 4% [4]. - Semiconductor stocks also faced declines, with Tianyu Semiconductor dropping nearly 5% and other major players like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC following suit [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the current declines, some analysts believe that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks may be attractive, but a rebound is not expected in the short term [8]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the potential interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, which could further influence market dynamics [9].

智通财经12月9日讯（编辑 胡家荣）今日港股市场表现疲弱，三大指数全线收跌。截至收盘，恒生指数跌1.29%，报25434.23点；恒生科技指数跌1.90%，报 5554.68点；国企指数跌1.62%，报8936.41点。 注：恒生指数的表现 尽管当前港股市场持续承压，但是招商证券指出，2026年港股核心驱动力将转向"新供给创造新需求"的新范式。这一转变源自科技创新加速、产业转型升级 以及财政模式优化，为市场提供坚实支撑。叠加中美流动性双宽松环境与当前估值洼地优势，他们预测恒生指数2026年有望实现10%-15%的温和上行，呈 现"慢牛"格局。 截至收盘，江西铜业股份(00358.HK)跌6.51%、洛阳钼业(03993.HK)跌6.42%、中国铝业(02600.HK)跌5.69%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 * | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | 0.093 | -0.010 | -9.71% | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 33.580 | -2.340 | -6.51% | | 03993 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level of 85, categorized as "overheated," suggesting a potential for market correction [5][8][20] - Key themes identified include non-ferrous metals, banking, and brokerage sectors, with specific stocks highlighted for investment opportunities [5][6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is driven by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to price increases for copper and aluminum [5] - Copper prices are supported by financial attributes, supply constraints, and resilient traditional demand, while aluminum faces tight balance due to peak domestic capacity and limited overseas growth [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are attractive due to their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds [5] Brokerage Sector - Recent comments from the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasize a focus on high-quality development in the brokerage industry, suggesting a shift from scale competition to quality and service [5] - The report highlights specific brokerage firms that may benefit from regulatory easing and a focus on differentiated operations [5] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report notes that when market sentiment is above 70, it may indicate resistance, while levels below 30 could provide support [8][20] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in an overheated market to avoid potential losses from market corrections [20]

智通财经获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.84%，跌215点，报25549点；恒生科技指数跌1.32%。港股早盘成交 1078亿港元。 百奥赛图-B(02315)涨超8%创新高，即将登陆A股科创板，公司千鼠万抗开始兑现。 昭衍新药(06127)涨超8%，实验猴近期价格暴涨，机构称供需缺口或持续放大。 石油股集体走低。地缘事件对油价支撑弱化，机构仍看好三桶油长期投资价值。中石油(00857)跌3%； 中石化(00386)跌2.21%；中海油(00883)跌2.32%。 光通信概念股再度上扬。AIDC发展带动高速光收发模块需求，机构预计明年出货量将激增。鸿腾精密 (06088)涨7.95%；长飞光纤光缆(06869)涨4.57%；剑桥科技(06166)涨3.06%；汇聚科技(01729)涨0.53%。 卓越睿新(02687)上市次日再涨超16% ，较招股价已涨1.2倍，总市值逼近100亿港元。公开资料显示，卓 越睿新是高等教育机构教学数字化解决方案提供商。 有色股跌幅居前。市场关注各国央行后续利率政策路径，有色金属全线承压。江西铜业股份(00358)跌 5.96%；洛阳钼业(03993)跌6.27%；中国铝业(02600) ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the growing scale of passive index funds, which reached a total of 4.9 trillion yuan by the end of September, with 1,548 passive index funds (ETFs and off-market funds) [7][11] - The article discusses the periodic adjustments of major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, which occur every June and December, potentially creating investment opportunities due to significant changes in constituent stocks [4][5] Group 2 - Historical adjustment effects show that stocks added to indices tend to outperform the index in the two weeks prior to their inclusion, while stocks removed from indices generally underperform [12][14] - The average excess return for stocks added to the SSE 50 index in the two weeks before inclusion is 4.89%, with a success rate of 66.67% [15] - For the CSI 300 index, the average excess return for added stocks is 4.04%, with a success rate of 59.39% [18] Group 3 - The article presents the latest adjustment impact calculations, indicating that 572 stocks are involved in adjustments, with 20 stocks seeing net buy amounts exceeding 1 billion yuan and 14 stocks with net sell amounts over 1 billion yuan [25] - The impact coefficients for stocks show that 18 stocks have coefficients exceeding 2, indicating significant buying pressure, while 46 stocks have coefficients below -2, indicating selling pressure [25] Group 4 - The article outlines the index compilation schemes, noting that most indices have a weight limit of 10%, with some allowing up to 15% for individual stocks [24] - The methodology for calculating the impact of adjustments includes assessing the expected buy and sell amounts based on the total scale of tracking funds and the weights of constituent stocks [23]