国信证券发布研报称，四季度进入出行淡季，去年同期公商务出行需求相对较弱，今年同比或有一定修 复。未来运力供给增速放缓确定性增强，若出行需求能保持稳增，带动航司座收持续修复，有望带来航 司业绩高弹性；叠加油价中枢下行、汇率稳定等，航司利润向上空间可期。 智通财经APP获悉，航空股集体走高，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)涨5.43%，报3.3港元；中国国航 (00753)涨4.24%，报5.65港元；南方航空(01055)涨3.24%，报4.14港元；国泰航空(00293)涨1.23%，报 10.66港元。 消息面上，国庆及中秋假期八天，全社会跨区域人员流动量累计达到24.33亿人次，日均同比+6.3%，较 2019年同期+30.8%。去年同期国庆假期（七天）民航出行基数较高，日均客流量同比+11.1%；今年同 期假期八天，民航日均客流同比仍实现+3.3%增长。航班管家数据显示，假期国内线经济舱平均票价 849元，同比+0.3%，基本持平，对比2019年同期微降1.4%，假期票价表现较为平稳。 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market has shifted from pessimistic liquidity expectations to improved economic outlooks, influenced by tariff impacts and risk preference changes [3][11] - The strategy for Q4 2025 focuses on short-term certainty while continuing to control duration, with expectations for 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.75% and 1.90% [11] - The market is facing challenges from mid-term logic shifts and potential changes in risk preferences, suggesting a cautious approach to long-term bonds [11] Group 2: TOP TOY and the Trend of the Toy Industry - TOP TOY, a brand under Miniso, has shown strong growth since its establishment in 2020, with a complete ecosystem from IP incubation to multi-channel sales [4][12] - The Chinese toy industry is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales expected to rise from 207 billion yuan in 2019 to 587 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23.2% [12][4] - The company has a diverse IP matrix, with 17 self-owned IPs and over 600 licensed IPs, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [12][13] Group 3: Coal Industry Performance - Domestic coal production increased by 2.8% year-on-year, while coal imports decreased by 11.1%, indicating a tightening supply [14][15] - The average price of thermal coal in Q3 2025 showed a recovery, with expectations for further performance improvement in Q4 [15][14] - Key companies in the coal sector are projected to report varying earnings, with some exceeding expectations due to stable pricing and production increases [15][14] Group 4: Public Utilities Sector - The hydropower sector is expected to recover due to improved rainfall conditions, while thermal power profitability is anticipated to remain strong despite fluctuating coal prices [25][24] - Nuclear power generation is on the rise, with new units expected to contribute significantly to output growth [25][24] - The gas sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in consumption, supported by lower costs and improved pricing strategies [25][24]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3865 | -0.62 | -0.14 | -0.45 | | 深证综指 | 2440 | -1.91 | -0.92 | -3.16 | 2025 年 10 月 15 日 煎熬已过，余波未平——2025 年四季度债券市场展望 ⚫ 2025 年 1 月至今债券市场行情的运行逻辑：从流动性悲观预期到经济改善 预期->"对等关税"冲击下的风险偏好切换->反内卷预期下的股债跷跷板 效应及资金分流->债基赎回压力。 ⚫ 4 季度债市策略：把握短端确定性，继续控久期 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预 期、海外环境变化超预期。（详见正文） | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -1.18 | -0.22 | 20.87 | | 中盘指数 | -2.62 | 1.62 | 29.44 | | 小盘指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by families traveling with infants, particularly regarding the inability to select seats online when booking infant tickets, leading to inconvenience during travel [1][6]. Group 1: Issues Faced by Travelers - Travelers with infant tickets are unable to select seats online, forcing them to arrive early at the airport to choose from remaining seats [1][3]. - Specific experiences of travelers, such as Zhao Ying, illustrate the difficulties in securing adjacent seating for families, especially during peak travel times [4][5]. - The lack of online seat selection leads to additional stress and the need for communication with other passengers to swap seats once on board [5][10]. Group 2: Airline Policies and Safety Considerations - Airlines restrict online seat selection for travelers with infants primarily due to safety concerns, as infants require specific seating arrangements with access to oxygen masks [6][7]. - Different airlines have varying policies regarding seat selection for infant travelers, with some allowing online selection while others require in-person arrangements at the airport [8][9]. - The distribution of infant passengers across the cabin is managed to ensure safety, which complicates the seat selection process [7][12]. Group 3: Recommendations and Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that airlines should consider relaxing restrictions on seat selection for families traveling with infants, such as allowing phone reservations [11][12]. - There is a growing demand for airlines to improve the travel experience for families, especially as the number of families with multiple children increases [11][12]. - Airlines face pressure to balance safety management with customer service, particularly during peak travel periods when family seating needs are heightened [11][12].

Core Points - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) will open on October 15, with Baiyun Airport providing dedicated services for attendees [2] - Baiyun Airport has set up special channels and services to facilitate the arrival and participation of international and domestic merchants [3][4] Group 1: Services and Facilities - Baiyun Airport has established a dedicated passage and express bus service directly connecting to the Canton Fair venue, allowing attendees to access the fair easily upon arrival [2] - Attendees arriving by air can obtain their buyer credentials for free at designated points in Terminal 1 and Terminal 2 of Baiyun Airport [2] - The airport has set up "small language" volunteers to assist international exhibitors with inquiries and guidance during the fair [2] Group 2: Security and Logistics - Security checkpoints have been designated at Baiyun Airport to prioritize the screening of exhibitors and buyers, with additional services for storing and shipping special exhibition items [3] - Two comprehensive service counters have been established at the Pazhou Exhibition Center to assist attendees with check-in, luggage handling, and transportation inquiries [3] Group 3: Transportation and Ticketing - A dedicated bus line will operate between Baiyun Airport and the Pazhou Exhibition Center during the fair, with staff available for luggage handling and guidance [4] - Attendees can enjoy discounted bus fares when traveling to and from the fair with relevant credentials, with specific bus schedules provided [4]

明明是轻松愉快的假期之旅，但乘坐航班时与2岁以下婴儿绑定的旅客无法线上选座，给"带娃出游"的 家庭带来诸多不便。近日，消费者赵莹向北京商报记者反映，国庆期间她携带9月龄婴儿出行，因绑定 婴儿票，既无法在线选座，也无法通过客服预留前排座位，最终只能提早到机场选择剩余空座。北京商 报记者调查发现，出于安全保障、便于协调管理等因素，不同航司对携带婴儿旅客的选座规定存在差 异。部分航司支持App选座或电话预留，但也有航司仅支持现场办理。航司往往会为带婴儿的旅客提供 便利服务，但带婴儿旅客的座位需求与航司的服务还存在错位。业内人士指出，若因安全原因限制选 座，航司应提前向旅客说明规则。同时，部分航司可以在保障航班运行的前提下，考虑逐步放开带婴儿 旅客的线上选座权限，提升出行体验。 线上不能选座、现场没有连座 "绑定2岁以下婴儿机票后，我不能在线上选座值机，只能到机场让工作人员安排。"这种婴儿机票选座 的难题，新手妈妈赵莹已遇到多次，但国庆假期的一次"带娃"乘坐经历，让她体会到前所未有的"折 腾"。 10月3日，赵莹分别购买了自己、9月龄孩子、一位同行亲属10月6日海南航空深圳飞往北京的单程机 票，并将孩子的婴儿票与自己 ...

明明是轻松愉快的假期之旅，但乘坐航班时与2岁以下婴儿绑定的旅客无法线上选座，给"带娃出游"的 家庭带来诸多不便。近日，消费者赵莹向北京商报记者反映，国庆期间她携带9月龄婴儿出行，因绑定 婴儿票，既无法在线选座，也无法通过客服预留前排座位，最终只能提早到机场选择剩余空座。北京商 报记者调查发现，出于安全保障、便于协调管理等因素，不同航司对携带婴儿旅客的选座规定存在差 异。部分航司支持App选座或电话预留，但也有航司仅支持现场办理。航司往往会为带婴儿的旅客提供 便利服务，但带婴儿旅客的座位需求与航司的服务还存在错位。业内人士指出，若因安全原因限制选 座，航司应提前向旅客说明规则。同时，部分航司可以在保障航班运行的前提下，考虑逐步放开带婴儿 旅客的线上选座权限，提升出行体验。 线上不能选座、现场没有连座 "绑定2岁以下婴儿机票后，我不能在线上选座值机，只能到机场让工作人员安排。"这种婴儿机票选座 的难题，新手妈妈赵莹已遇到多次，但国庆假期的一次"带娃"乘坐经历，让她体会到前所未有的"折 腾"。 10月3日，赵莹分别购买了自己、9月龄孩子、一位同行亲属10月6日海南航空深圳飞往北京的单程机 票，并将孩子的婴儿票与自己 ...

Domestic Flight Schedule - Domestic airlines' average daily flight schedule for winter 2025 is 15,439 flights, a decrease of 1.8% compared to 2024 and an increase of 20% compared to 2019[4] - Total average daily flight schedule for domestic airlines is 16,911 flights, down 1.6% from 2024 and up 15% from 2019[4] - The average daily flight schedule for international flights is 1,276, an increase of 1.8% from 2024 but a decrease of 19% from 2019[4] International and Regional Flight Recovery - International flight schedules are recovering to 81% of 2019 levels, with domestic airlines' international flights averaging 1,472, maintaining the same recovery rate as 2024[6] - Flights to Australia, North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe are recovering to 79%, 25%, 77%, and 129% of 2019 levels respectively[6] - The average daily flight schedule for international and regional flights is 2,403, recovering to 77% of 2019 levels[52] Investment Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability, driven by strong supply logic and elastic demand[6] - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, China National Aviation, and others, with a focus on the aviation sector's recovery potential[6] - Risks include fluctuations in oil prices, economic growth not meeting expectations, and aviation safety incidents[6]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector saw a slight increase of 0.31% on October 14, with China Eastern Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54% [1] Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.15, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 1.0534 million shares and a transaction value of 436 million [1] - Xiamen Airport (600897) closed at 14.56, up 1.04% with a trading volume of 19,800 shares [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.54, up 0.85% with a trading volume of 179,400 shares [1] - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.63, up 0.62% with a trading volume of 5.3673 million shares [1] - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 52.19, up 0.35% with a trading volume of 42,000 shares [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 54.71 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 97.49 million [2][3] - Major stocks like China Eastern Airlines and HNA Holding had mixed capital flows, with significant outflows from institutional and speculative investors [3]

Fixed Income Research - The convertible bond market has limited downside potential, and sharp declines may present investment opportunities, with a focus on three structural opportunities [1][3] - It is recommended to maintain a balanced layout to address potential differentiation in the market [3] Oil and Chemical Research - Trade frictions are impacting oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices at $62.09 as of October 10 [5] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain production cuts, which may support oil prices in the short term [6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has temporarily eased, reducing risk premiums in the oil market [6][7] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from downstream demand recovery and low-cost upstream players [7] Transportation Research - The aviation sector is experiencing strong demand during the National Day holiday, with ticket prices rising and Q3 earnings expected to grow against the trend [8][9] - The oil shipping market saw a temporary drop in rates during the holiday but is expected to rebound post-holiday [9] - The impact of China's countermeasures against the US 301 investigation is anticipated to lessen the effects on Chinese shipping companies [10] Cultural and Media Research - The gaming market remains robust, with notable performances from titles like "Delta Action" and strong revenue from mobile games [11][12] - The film market had a lackluster performance during the National Day holiday, with total box office revenue down 13% year-on-year [14]