0 2 分 析 判 断 公司发布9月销量公告，9月批发总销量27.3万辆，同比+35.2%，环比+9.2%；1-9月批发总销量217.0万辆，同比+45.7%。其中，9月新能源销量165,201辆，同比 +81.3%，环比+12.1%，占比60.5%；1-9月新能源累计116.8万辆，同比+113.9%。分品牌看：吉利品牌9月销量22.2万辆（银河12.1万辆（含几何））；极氪9月销 量18,257辆；领克9月销量32,902辆。 ►1-9月新能源销量同比大增 全年销量目标300万辆 9月批发总销量27.3万辆，同比+35.2%，环比+9.2%；出口方面，公司9月出口销量4.1万辆，环比+12.7%，表现亮眼。吉利银河旗舰SUV车型M9于9月上市，限时置 换补贴价17.38-23.88万元，新车长宽高分别为5,205/1,999/1,800mm，轴距为3,030mm，空间优越，车顶配备了激光雷达，搭载吉利千里浩瀚H5智能安全辅助驾驶 系统, 上市24小时订单破2.3万。我们看好反内卷下公司销量兑现，同时规模化提振主品牌盈利。 ►极氪9X上市 高端市场加速发力 极氪、领克9月分别销量18,257辆、32,902 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The consumption sector in China is expected to remain weak for the rest of the year, with limited wealth effect despite recent stock market performance [1] - During the first six days of the National Day holiday, the box office for films reached 1.54 billion yuan, marking a 19.8% decline compared to the same period in 2024 and a 60.4% drop from 2019 [1] - New home sales in 14 cities totaled 307,000 square meters from October 1-5, down 27.2% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing resilience while second and third-tier cities face significant adjustment pressure [1][3] Group 2: Political Developments - The election of high-profile political figures in Japan reflects a global trend towards right-wing populism, with implications for economic policies [5] - The new leadership is expected to rely on fiscal spending to drive economic growth, which may affect market expectations regarding interest rates and currency values [6] Group 3: Technology Sector - OpenAI held its largest developer conference, announcing a significant partnership with AMD to build AI data centers, with the first deployment of AMD's GPU expected in late 2026 [8][14] - The demand for AI products has led Dell to significantly raise its revenue growth forecast for the next four years, nearly doubling its annual growth rate to 7%-9% [8] - Samsung and SK Hynix signed an agreement to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centers, indicating a growing demand in the AI sector [15] Group 4: Market Insights - The market is expected to see a structural recovery post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like AI, new drugs, and renewable energy [12] - Recent trends indicate a shift towards resource sectors, with precious and base metals prices rising during the holiday [11] - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trajectory, supported by structural characteristics and liquidity [12][27] Group 5: Industry Performance - The gold market has seen prices reach historical highs, with domestic gold jewelry prices exceeding 1160 yuan per gram [13] - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in video generation technology and applications [22] - The energy storage sector is also expanding, with Tesla reporting a substantial increase in storage product installations [19]

新车到店"引流" 今年国庆中秋假期前，从新能源到燃油、从经济型到豪华级，车市迎来一波产品集中上新。据不完全统 计，今年9月国内车市超70款新车被密集投放，包括上市、亮相、预售。在国庆中秋假期期间，新车集 中到店并被摆在各大门店C位，为今年"十一"车市成功引流。 今年国庆中秋假期前夕，车企通过集中推出新车、新车型集中到店，为"十一"车市预热、引流。北京商 报记者在假期期间走访发现，车企这一动作已显成效：节前上新的车型成为各门店的"C位明星"，直接 带动门店订单量显著攀升。值得注意的是，为进一步抢占四季度市场份额、为全年销量冲刺提前卡位， 车企在"上新引流"之外，还同步推出"花式"让利政策，形成"新车吸引力+价格优惠"的双重刺激。事实 上，随着车市竞争持续加剧，车企早已不再试探，而是力拼全年销量目标。在"以旧换新"政策持续提振 新车消费的背景下，叠加四季度传统冲量收官的节点，国庆中秋假期已成为车企必争的销量冲刺窗口 期。 国庆中秋假期期间，特斯拉上新的Model Y L成为门店"明星"。"国庆中秋假期到店的消费者最关注的就 是Model Y L，假期前三天超六成消费者均是来咨询、试驾、下定Model Y L。"一 ...

Group 1: BYD Performance - BYD leads the market with a September sales figure of 396,300 units, including 188,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 205,100 pure electric vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.31% [1] - Cumulative sales for BYD in the first nine months of the year reached 3.26 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 18.64% [1] - Citic Securities reports that BYD's sales of the Fangcheng Leopard Ti 7 exceeded market expectations, and with new models set to launch, BYD is expected to see a sales surge in the peak season [1] Group 2: Geely Performance - Geely's September sales reached approximately 273,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with new energy vehicle sales at about 165,000 units, up 81% [2] - Cumulative sales of Geely's new energy vehicles in the first nine months reached approximately 1.168 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 114% [2] - Geely's new energy vehicle penetration rate reached 60.49% in September, with Lynk's penetration rate hitting a record high of 79.3% [2] Group 3: Chery Performance - Chery's September sales were approximately 280,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, with new energy vehicle sales around 92,000 units, up 55.4% [2] - Chery achieved a cumulative sales figure of 2 million units in the first nine months, marking the fastest pace to surpass this milestone in history [2] - Chery's IPO raised funds, with 35% allocated for multi-model development and 25% for next-generation vehicle and advanced technology research [2] Group 4: Other Manufacturers - Changan's September sales were approximately 266,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with new energy vehicle sales at about 103,000 units, up 87% [3] - Great Wall Motors reported September sales of approximately 134,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.29%, with new energy vehicle sales around 46,000 units, up 52.55% [3] Group 5: Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing a growth trend, with September being a traditional peak season, supported by national subsidies and local purchase incentives [4] - The market is seeing a new product launch phase, with several new models introduced in September, including the Shangjie H5 and Lijing L7 [4] - The current vehicle ownership rate is low, and there is a mismatch in supply and demand for high-end models, which may hinder the growth of the mainstream market [4]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a familiar pattern during the National Day holiday, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.48% after one day of increase followed by three days of adjustment [1] - The U.S. government faced a shutdown starting October 1, affecting over 100,000 federal employees, with potential long-term negative impacts if the shutdown persists [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 7,406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of accumulation [1] Gold and Silver Market - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, suggested that gold is a better hedge than the dollar and recommended a 15% allocation in investment portfolios as gold approaches $4,000 per ounce [2] - Chinese gold stocks such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold saw significant price increases, with Zijin rising over 13% and Shandong over 7% [2] - Silver prices also rose, with spot silver reaching $48.32 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1% [2] Automotive Industry - The U.S. automotive sector is facing challenges, particularly after a fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which supplies 40% of aluminum sheets for the industry, leading to production halts expected to last until early next year [2] - Tesla launched a "simplified" version of the Model Y at a lower price, but market reception appears lukewarm due to reduced features [2] Electric Vehicle Market - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are showing strong performance in Europe, with a 35% year-on-year increase in sales across nine major countries in September [3] - Companies like Xpeng, Geely, and BYD are expected to maintain positive trends as new models are set to launch in Q4 [3] Battery Technology - Advances in solid-state battery technology are being reported, with new materials developed that significantly enhance energy density [3] - Production rates are expected to increase by 5-10% in October, with a projected year-on-year growth of 30-50% [3] AI and Semiconductor Industry - OpenAI announced a partnership with AMD to deploy 6 GW of AMD GPU computing power, indicating continued investment in AI technology [4] - Nvidia is expected to play a significant role in a $20 billion funding round for Elon Musk's AI startup, xAI, highlighting the ongoing collaboration in the AI sector [4] Nuclear Fusion Developments - The BEST project in Anhui, China, achieved a key breakthrough, marking progress in nuclear fusion technology [5] - Germany plans to invest €2 billion in building the world's first nuclear fusion power plant by 2029 [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovent Biologics announced a licensing agreement with Zenas Bio Pharma for the development and commercialization of its product, with potential total payments exceeding $2 billion [6] - Other companies in the sector may see increased activity due to potential milestone payments related to this agreement [6] Mining and Materials - China Metallurgical Group reported a decrease in new contract amounts but an increase in overseas contracts, indicating a shift in focus towards international operations [7] - The company is advancing projects in Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are expected to yield significant profits upon completion [8] - The company also has a strong position in silicon-based semiconductor materials, indicating long-term investment potential [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, indicating a continued bullish sentiment towards the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a new phase where the benefits of electrification are tapering off, while the focus shifts towards intelligent vehicles and robotics innovation [4]. - The report highlights significant developments in the sector, including Tesla's FSD V14 release, which expands model scale and context length, and the introduction of simplified versions of Model 3 and Model Y at reduced prices [2][3]. - The report anticipates a strong demand for passenger vehicles, supported by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and upgrades, projecting a retail sales forecast of 23.7 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [50][51]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the fourth week of September, the total number of passenger vehicles insured reached 644,000, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 26.7% and a month-on-month increase of 25.0% [49]. - The report notes that the new energy vehicle segment accounted for 368,000 units, with a penetration rate of 57.2%, marking a week-on-week increase of 23.7% [49]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 10th in A-shares and 12th in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with commercial vehicles showing the best performance [8][10]. - The report identifies key stocks that performed well, including Songyuan Safety, Jingwei Hengrun-W, and Seres, which were among the top gainers [23]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and intelligent vehicles as key investment themes, with a focus on Robotaxi and Robovan applications [4]. - It predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L3 autonomous driving technology will reach 20%, driven by major players like Tesla and Huawei [53]. - The report also anticipates a 15% growth in domestic sales in 2025, supported by policies promoting vehicle replacement and a recovering public transport sector [58].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.48% at 26,829.46 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.52%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.55% [1] - JD Health and NetEase saw gains of approximately 3%, while SenseTime and Baidu dropped over 3%, and both JD and Alibaba fell over 1% [1] Commodity Performance - Spot gold reached a new high of $4,040 per ounce, while spot silver rose over 2% approaching $49 per ounce, leading to significant gains in gold stocks [1] - Companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining surged over 13%, China Silver Group increased over 12%, and Shandong Gold rose over 7% [1] Sector Performance - The electric equipment sector showed strength, with Northeast Electric rising over 10% and Harbin Electric increasing nearly 6% [1] - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Geely Automobile up over 3%, and Xpeng, BYD, and Great Wall Motors all rising over 1% [1] - The China Automobile Dealers Association projected a "moderate recovery" in the car market for October [1] Airline and Technology Stocks - Airline stocks collectively declined, with China Southern Airlines down over 4%, and both China Eastern Airlines and Air China falling over 3% [1] - Apple-related stocks generally fell, with Lens Technology down over 4% and Q Tech down over 3% [1]

小摩预期，若吉利汽车执行持续理想，其2025及2026财年纯利有潜在10%至15%上行空间。目前，小摩 预测公司2026年销量增长15%，包括出口市场增长逾50%及国内市场成长约8%，高于整体PV市场(料同 比持平)。 该行对吉利基于平台策略的强大车款周期持建设性看法，这应有助吉利持续获取市场份额；也看好吉利 在挑战市场中，透过与全球/区域领导者如Daimler及宁德时代（300750）(03750)的伙伴关系或合资企 业，在同业中展现长期前景及技术领导地位。 摩根大通发布研报称，吉利汽车(00175)日前宣布其董事会已批准一项价值23亿港元的股票回购提案。 小摩相信，此回购提案显示吉利管理层对公司未来充满信心，包括2026年潜在获利或股价上行空间，届 时补贴计划到期后，整体汽车需求可能放缓或下滑。小摩维持对吉利的"增持"评级，目标价22港元。 该行相信回购提案显示管理层认为吉利被市场低估，鉴于其稳固的盈利动能，本年至今市场对其今明两 年预测已上调介乎25%至30%；小摩又预测吉利今年第三季纯利将达到约38亿人民币，主要受销量带 动。 ...

该行对吉利基于平台策略的强大车款周期持建设性看法，这应有助吉利持续获取市场份额；也看好吉利 在挑战市场中，透过与全球/区域领导者如Daimler及宁德时代(03750)的伙伴关系或合资企业，在同业中 展现长期前景及技术领导地位。 该行相信回购提案显示管理层认为吉利被市场低估，鉴于其稳固的盈利动能，本年至今市场对其今明两 年预测已上调介乎25%至30%；小摩又预测吉利今年第三季纯利将达到约38亿人民币，主要受销量带 动。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，吉利汽车(00175)日前宣布其董事会已批准一项价值23亿港元 的股票回购提案。小摩相信，此回购提案显示吉利管理层对公司未来充满信心，包括2026年潜在获利或 股价上行空间，届时补贴计划到期后，整体汽车需求可能放缓或下滑。小摩维持对吉利的"增持"评级， 目标价22港元。 小摩预期，若吉利汽车执行持续理想，其2025及2026财年纯利有潜在10%至15%上行空间。目前，小摩 预测公司2026年销量增长15%，包括出口市场增长逾50%及国内市场成长约8%，高于整体PV市场(料同 比持平)。 ...

摩根大通发表研究报告指，吉利汽车日前宣布其董事会已批准一项价值23亿港元的股票回购提案，相信 回购提案显示管理层认为吉利被市场低估，鉴于其稳固的盈利动能，本年至今市场对其今明两年预测已 上调介乎25%至30%；摩通又预测吉利今年第三季纯利将达到约38亿元，主要受销量带动。摩通预期， 若吉利汽车执行持续理想，其2025及2026财年纯利有潜在10%至15%上行空间。摩通维持对吉利的"增 持"评级，目标价22港元。 ...