证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月22日 华源晨会精粹 20251222 固定收益 短期制约因素突出，当前经济或仍承压——利率周报：11 月经济数据与财 政收支数据相继披露，当前经济或仍持续承压。我们认为经济运行核心矛盾仍聚焦 于"旧动能调整拖累与新动能成长并存"，消费与投资的短期压力与财政收支的低 增长态势相互呼应。从经济运行基本面看，需求端或仍承压。消费与投资双引擎若 持续乏力，可能直接影响四季度经济增速预期，预计同比增速将较三季度有所放缓。 短期制约因素尤为突出：房地产市场仍在筑底阶段，居民消费短期仍可能保持谨慎 态度。2025 年 1-11 月财政收支情况显示，财政运行呈现"收入低增、支出中央地 方分化"的特征。当前经济与财政的运行态势，与 2025 年中央经济工作会议的政策 部署形成精准呼应。会议强化内需主导作用、突出企业创新主体地位，并新增"加 大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的表述，为后续政策发力指明了方向。明年经济或呈 现弱修复态势，财政收支平衡压力或将持续。2026 年债市行情可能好于预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that warmer temperatures have led to a continued decline in U.S. gas prices, while European gas prices have seen a slight increase due to inventory withdrawals. Domestic gas demand in China has shown marginal improvement [1][9] - The overall supply of gas remains sufficient, with domestic gas prices decreasing by 3.7% week-on-week. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China from January to November 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year to 392 billion cubic meters, with November showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [24][28] - The report emphasizes the ongoing price adjustment progress across various cities, with 67% of cities implementing residential price adjustments, indicating a potential for further valuation recovery in gas companies [38] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of December 19, 2025, U.S. HH gas prices decreased by 12.1%, while European TTF prices increased by 1.8%. The prices for East Asia JKM and China's LNG showed declines of 9.6% and 3.7%, respectively [9][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the U.S. gas market has seen a week-on-week price drop of 12.1% due to higher temperatures, with storage levels decreasing by 167 billion cubic feet to 35,790 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [16] - In Europe, gas consumption from January to September 2025 reached 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The average daily gas generation in Europe increased by 30.8% week-on-week and 41.9% year-on-year [18] Domestic Market Insights - China's apparent natural gas consumption from January to November 2025 was 392 billion cubic meters, with production increasing by 6.4% year-on-year to 238.9 billion cubic meters. However, imports decreased by 4.8% to 161.1 billion cubic meters [28][29] - The average import price for LNG in November 2025 was 3,384 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.7% decrease month-on-month and an 18.3% decrease year-on-year [28] Price Adjustment Progress - The report indicates that 67% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter. The potential for further price recovery exists, as the reasonable value for gas distribution fees is estimated to be above 0.6 yuan per cubic meter [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing price adjustments, highlighting specific companies such as Xinao Energy and China Gas, which have attractive dividend yields [1][24]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） 2026 年能源工作会议召开，北美 AI 缺电持续演绎 ——大能源行业 2025 年第 51 周周报（20251221） 投资要点： 电力：2026 年全国能源工作会议召开 多省"十五五"能源建设方向明确 全国能源工作会议召开，2026 年新增新能源装机 2 亿千瓦以上。12 月 15 日，2026 年全国能源工作会议在北京召开。会议肯定了 2025 年的能源保供成绩，预期以火电 为主的调节性电源在"十五五"期间仍将受到重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state and future outlook of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry in China, indicating a slight increase in production for 2025 but a cumulative decline in the first ten months of the year [1] Industry Overview - As of October 2025, China's LPG production reached 4.68 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the total LPG production in China was 44.442 million tons, showing a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous year [1] Companies Mentioned - Listed companies in the LPG sector include Xin'ao Co., Ltd. (600803), Fuan Energy (002911), Guizhou Gas (600903), Chongqing Gas (600917), Changchun Gas (600333), and Shaanxi Natural Gas (002267) [1] Research Report - The report titled "Analysis of the Competitive Landscape and Investment Development Research of China's LPG Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent competition showcased innovative achievements in the gas industry, highlighting the collaboration and technical capabilities of the teams involved [1][7]. Group 1: Innovation Achievements - The project "Intelligent Monitoring Technology Research and Application for Steel Pipeline Cathodic Protection" won the second prize, addressing issues such as stray current interference and low efficiency in traditional monitoring methods [3][9]. - The project has resulted in the development of an intelligent monitoring technology system, including smart collection devices and management systems, with multiple patents granted [3][9]. - The project has been recognized for its international advanced level, particularly in AI detection research, which is deemed to be at the leading global standard [3][9]. Group 2: Practical Applications - The "Vehicle-mounted Intelligent Inspection System for Municipal Gas Pipelines" received an excellent award, focusing on improving inspection efficiency and coverage through advanced sensors and intelligent analysis platforms [5][11]. - This system has been successfully implemented in various regions, including Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hong Kong, with positive user feedback regarding its effectiveness in reducing labor costs and enhancing safety [5][11]. - The project has also secured multiple patents and software copyrights, demonstrating its innovative approach to pipeline inspection [5][11]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The achievements in the competition serve as a recognition of the teams' innovative capabilities and practical spirit, encouraging further technological advancements in the urban gas industry [7][13]. - The company aims to leverage this success to promote craftsmanship and deepen collaborative innovation mechanisms with partner units, fostering a broader platform for exchange and practical application [7][13].

本期《隐形冠军》节目将走进国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业——宁波舜韵电子有限公司（以下简称"舜 韵电子"），探寻这家深耕厨电智能控制系统三十余年的企业，如何在产业链中找准定位，以"名配 角"理念实现突围，成为智能控制系统解决方案的引领者。 中国制造业的发展历程，始终伴随着产业周期的更迭与市场环境的剧变。上世纪 80 年代末 90 年代初， 市场经济蓬勃发展，科技浪潮初现端倪，一批敢闯敢试的创业者抓住了时代机遇，姚国祥便是其中之 一。 在浙江余姚，20岁的姚国祥凭借政府支持的三间半瓦房和几台脚踏冲床，创办了电子装配厂，成为当时 十里八乡最年轻的厂长。创业之初，工厂主要为收音机、录音机做配套加工。这是一段典型的乡镇制造 业起步故事：抓住市场空白，依靠勤劳与灵活，完成原始积累。 自动播放 在中国制造业的版图上，宁波是一座特殊的地标。这里不仅是"书藏古今、港通天下"的历史名城，更是 中国"隐形冠军"企业的重要集聚地。在宁波下辖的余姚市，"模具之乡"与"塑料之乡"的产业标签之下， 隐藏着一条完整而坚韧的电子信息制造业产业链。在这片崇尚"专精特新"的工业土壤里，一批企业不追 求终端产品的光环，而是甘居幕后，在细分领域里做到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has 17 concept stocks related to green hydrogen and ammonia, with 6 stocks showing an annual increase of over 50% as of December 17 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Six concept stocks have increased by more than 50% this year: Fuzhijie Technology, Huaguang Huaneng, Goldwind Technology, Xizi Clean Energy, Kaishan Shares, and Xinjin Power [1] - The stock with the highest increase in institutional attention is Xizi Clean Energy, which has been investigated 30 times this year [1] Group 2: Institutional Attention - Six concept stocks have received more than 10 institutional research inquiries this year: Xizi Clean Energy, Fuzhijie Technology, Goldwind Technology, CIMC Group, Yunda Shares, and Fuan Energy [1] - Xizi Clean Energy has the most institutional research inquiries, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 3: Company Developments - Xizi Clean Energy has stated on its investor interaction platform that it can participate in the supply of molten salt energy storage equipment and waste heat boilers in the integrated model of wind, solar, hydrogen, and ammonia [1] - The company aims to continuously expand its applications in the green ammonia and green alcohol industries [1]

Group 1 - The world's largest integrated green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol project, the Zhongnengjian Songyuan Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park, has officially commenced production, with a capacity to generate 450,000 tons of green hydrogen, 200,000 tons of green ammonia, and green methanol annually, significantly reducing crude oil consumption by 460,000 tons and cutting carbon emissions by 300,000 tons per year [1] - The integrated green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol project model combines multiple processes, including wind and solar power generation, water electrolysis for hydrogen production, and the synthesis of green ammonia and methanol, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and market demand for renewable energy [1] - By the end of 2024, China's planned capacity for green ammonia projects is expected to reach approximately 1,780,000 tons per year, with around 1,900,000 tons per year currently under construction [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Securities, the industrial application prospects for green ammonia and green methanol are broad, with green ammonia expected to account for over 70% of domestic production by 2050, driven by dual carbon policies and decreasing green electricity costs [2] - Longjiang Securities emphasizes that the high-quality development of renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period requires breakthroughs in non-electric utilization, with significant application potential for green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol in chemical, transportation, and metallurgy sectors [2] - As of December 17, 2023, 17 A-share stocks related to green hydrogen and methanol have been identified, with six stocks experiencing over 50% growth this year, including Fuzhijie Technology, Huaguang Huaneng, and Jinfeng Technology [2] Group 3 - In terms of trading activity, Jinfeng Technology recorded the highest average daily trading volume in December at 2.508 billion yuan, followed by China International Marine Containers and others with varying trading volumes [3] - Six green hydrogen and methanol concept stocks have been subject to over ten institutional surveys this year, with Xizi Clean Energy receiving the most attention, having been surveyed 30 times [3] - Xizi Clean Energy has indicated its involvement in the supply of equipment for the integrated wind-solar hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol model, continuously expanding its applications in the green ammonia and methanol industries [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the hydrogen energy sector, particularly the development of green hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia as key carriers for decarbonization in non-electric fields, driven by China's dual carbon goals [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Support**: There is increasing policy support for green hydrogen and methanol, including subsidies for green methanol projects and direct connections to green electricity to reduce costs [1][4]. - **Demand for Green Methanol**: The demand for green methanol as a shipping fuel is strong, with existing orders for methanol-powered vessels reaching 7 million tons. If the long-term penetration rate reaches 10%, demand could exceed 40 million tons [1][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Short-term investment should focus on early market entrants and compliant green methanol producers, while long-term investments should consider scale effects and cost reductions as the industry matures [1][7]. - **Inner Mongolia's Leadership**: Inner Mongolia is a leader in green hydrogen projects, with specific policies encouraging the use of renewable energy and improving efficiency [1][8]. - **European Support**: Europe is supporting green methanol through carbon border adjustment taxes and maritime carbon taxes, ensuring significant short-term demand despite delays in IMO voting [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Hydrogen Production Equipment**: The market for hydrogen production equipment is expanding, with 9 million tons of green hydrogen projects approved in China, corresponding to a demand for 20-25 GW of electrolyzers [2][13]. - **Investment Logic**: Short-term investments should focus on policy implementation and market entry, while long-term investments should consider industry maturity and broader applications [7][10]. - **Key Companies**: Recommended companies for investment in green methanol include Jin Feng Technology, China Tianying, and others, with specific projects and profit expectations outlined [9][12][22]. - **Future Development Path**: The future of green methanol will focus on electrochemical production, with significant cost reductions expected through direct connections to renewable energy [11][21]. Conclusion - The hydrogen energy sector is poised for significant growth, driven by strong policy support, increasing demand for green methanol, and advancements in hydrogen production technology. Key investment opportunities exist in both production and supporting technologies, with a focus on companies that can effectively navigate the evolving landscape.

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and dovish signals from Powell have led to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, while concerns over AI investment bubbles have caused a downturn in U.S. stocks [1][15][16] - Analysts expect November non-farm employment to show a weak increase of 50,000 jobs, with a high standard deviation of 33,000, indicating significant market divergence [1][15][16] - The anticipated CPI for November is expected to be +3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI also at +3%, maintaining inflation around the 3% mark [1][15][16] Financial Products - The A-share market outlook suggests maintaining patience while waiting for stabilization in overseas markets, with a macro timing model score of -2 indicating a potential adjustment in the A-share index [2][17] - The report notes that the technology growth sector may regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, while the small and micro-cap sectors are viewed with caution [2][17] - Significant inflows into ETFs such as A500ETF and Sci-Tech 50ETF indicate some market optimism, despite ongoing concerns about AI investment bubbles [2][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the PCB drilling process as a key beneficiary of high-end PCB development, recommending domestic leaders in drilling equipment and consumables [10] - The environmental industry is expected to benefit from the central economic work conference's focus on green transformation and energy independence, with investment opportunities in clean energy and recycling sectors [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "dual carbon" goals in driving the green transition, with specific recommendations for companies in clean energy and waste management sectors [12] Fixed Income - The fixed income report suggests that the bond market may not experience the same downward trend in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, indicating a need for a more flexible approach to bond market operations [5][21] - The issuance of green bonds has increased significantly, with 29 new bonds issued in the week of December 8-12, totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, reflecting growing interest in sustainable finance [7] - The report also notes a substantial increase in secondary capital bonds, with a total transaction volume of approximately 329.2 billion yuan during the same period [8]