Wind数据显示，在11月14日上证指数涨至4034.08点的历史高位后，便震荡下行。一直截至11月24日收 盘，短短几天上证指数已跌4.78%，几乎相当于此前年内涨幅的四分之一。其余资产如创业板指、恒生 指数、标普500，甚至COMEX黄金期货等，在这期间也出现了不同程度的下跌。 在此情况下，一些资金并未退缩，而是逆势加仓。 Wind数据表明，在11月14日-24日期间，ETF基金出现了超千亿元规模的资金净流入，跟踪沪深300、中 证500等多只热门指数的ETF，单只基金的流入额就超过了50亿元。 近半个月，股市行情如同过山车。 机构认为，本轮股市慢牛的基础并没有发生改变。当前，市场短期下跌风险释放已较为充分，后续可关 注中央经济工作会议相关政策基调。 市场调整，股票基金平均收益跑输大盘同期 11月中旬以来，股市出现一轮调整。 Wind数据显示，11月14日-24日，仅仅7个交易日，上证指数跌4.78%，创业板指跌8.52%，深证成指跌 6.61%，恒生指数、恒生科技指数则分别跌5.01%、7.29%。 不只是A股、港股，同期的标普500指数、COMEX黄金期货等也出现了不同程度的下跌。 股市表现不佳，基金 ...

海外宏观策略：降息预期反复，美国股跌债涨 上周美联储降息预期一度收敛，后边际转松。 一是部分美联储官员持续释放鹰派信号。二是受到政府停摆影 响，10月非农数据不再公布，而11月数据将在12月议息会议后才会披露，这意味着美联储在2025年最后一次议 息会议前，不再有官方就业数据可参考，导致降息概率大幅下降。随后美联储副主席兼纽约联储主席威廉姆斯 释放鸽派信号，降息预期再度上升，12月降息概率回升至70%。11月21日，威廉姆斯表示近期仍然存在降息空 间，劳动力市场仍然面临下行风险。威廉姆斯的态度更可能代表美联储中央票委立场，与地方票委的密集鹰派 表态形成鲜明对比。由于中央票委拥有8个席位，地方票委仅拥有4个席位，美联储政策立场仍然偏向鸽派。 美国劳工部滞后公布9月就业数据，下行压力仍然存在。 尽管新增就业显著反弹，达到11.9万人，结束了5月以 来的低迷走势，但失业率仍在缓步上行，达到4.4%，再创本轮周期新高。从高频数据看，W46首次申领失业 金人数为22.0万，基本符合季节性水平。 在降息预期反复的背景下，美股回调，美元反弹并再度站上100整数关口，美债利率小幅回落，黄金下跌，人 民币小幅贬值。 美股方面， ...

如何理解近日的市场波动？20251123 摘要 美联储流动性收紧可能引发市场调整，纳斯达克指数或调整 5%-7%， 高估值股票可能调整 10%-30%，数字货币可能回调 20%-30%。 当前市场关注美联储降息预期、AI 投资泡沫、中国经济数据与市场表现 温差以及量子计算对数字货币的影响。美联储 12 月降息概率约为 30%，明年预计降息两次。 从宏观角度看，AI 投资回报率仍高，杠杆率未显著上升，尚不能断定为 泡沫。明年美国科技巨头计划增加资本开支，军备竞赛仍在继续。 中国经济数据与市场表现温差主要由于高基数效应和财政支出时间节点 不同。需关注边际工业品价格变化，评估中国经济。 近期宏观经济数据受技术扰动、土地价格下行、政府补贴变化等因素影 响。去除补贴后的消费数据显示稳中有升趋势。 风险资产进入休整期，受政策导向、资金青黄不接、叙事提振减弱影响。 美股领跌，比特币等风险资产跌幅最大，但总体仍属阶段性调整。 港股和 A 股目前都处于调整带来的布局机会阶段。港股调整时间较早且 幅度较深，现在进入布局区间，可以逐步建仓。 Q&A 近期市场波动的主要原因是什么？ 近期市场波动的主要原因是美股下跌引发的连锁反应，导 ...

这场风波最初来自一位在美国社交媒体上较为活跃的"金融市场独立研究员"Shanaka Anslem Perera。他 声称，算法发现英伟达财报的账面数据存在"严重矛盾"。 具体包括：公司应收账款高达334亿美元，一年暴增89%，款项回收周期延长；库存暴增32%至198亿美 元，与芯片短缺的说法相悖；现金转化率仅为75%，远低于半导体行业标准。并且，这些异常是"AI算 法发现了人类没发现的欺诈"。 同时，美国AI巨头之间的循环交易也让投资者对行业真实需求产生疑虑。"目前AI行业的资金循环网络 规模高达6100亿美元。"上述文章称，"这个循环是：英伟达投资AI科技公司、科技公司承诺云服务支 出、云提供商购买英伟达硬件、英伟达确认收入。然而，由于最根本的经济活动——即能产生利润的 AI应用——仍然不足，现金从未完成完整的循环。" 针对以上质疑，一份分析报告认为："上述推论存在断章取义和误读。将一家正处于高速扩张期的科技 巨头的正常运营资本增加（应收账款和存货随营收同步增长）恶意解读为'虚假营收'和'欺诈'，刻意忽 略了营收规模扩大和新产品备货的商业常识。" 有意思的是：尽管Perera在其个人简介中使用了系统架构师、 ...

据报道，特斯拉近日完成在内华达州运营机器人出租车的自我认证程序，并获得当地机动车管理局颁发 的"运营合规证书"，允许其在公共道路测试无人驾驶车辆，但商业化运营仍需获得内华达州交通管理局 批准。 同一周内，亚利桑那州交通运输厅也确认，特斯拉已完成当地机器人出租车业务所需的全部流程，首期 项目将继续配备安全员，模式与特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山湾区的服务类似。目前，美国市场上已有竞争 对手如Waymo在部分城市提供无需安全员的L4级自动驾驶服务。 华尔街对特斯拉的自动驾驶前景保持关注。Stifel分析师Stephen Gengaro本周上调特斯拉目标价至508美 元，并继续给予"买入"评级。他指出，特斯拉管理层预计到2025年底可将机器人出租车服务扩展至约8 至10个大都市区域，并强调FSD的快速迭代将成为业务增长的关键驱动力。 近期市场情绪的波动主要源于外界对科技巨头大规模AI投资的疑虑。包括英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的企 业持续投入于数据中心和模型训练基础设施，而部分项目尚未产生正向现金流。在此背景下，特斯拉以 其在数据中心、AI芯片以及FSD(完全自动驾驶)软件方面的投入，被投资者视为"AI机器人公司"的代表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock markets, attributing it to three main pressures: the diminishing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising concerns over an AI investment bubble, and historically high valuations in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for U.S. Market Adjustment - The Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts have significantly decreased, with a higher probability of pausing cuts in December due to hawkish signals from officials and the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [1][2]. - Concerns about an AI investment bubble are growing, driven by a mismatch between exponential growth in capital expenditure and linear growth in revenue from AI applications. Nvidia's strong earnings report did not alleviate market fears, as its revenue is tied to capital spending rather than actual market demand [2]. - U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, with the Shiller P/E ratio exceeding levels seen in 2021 and 1929, only surpassed by the peak of the 2000 internet bubble. This suggests that the market has priced in overly optimistic growth expectations, limiting further valuation expansion [2]. Group 2: Outlook for U.S. Markets - The impact of interest rate expectations is likely to be short-term, with a higher probability of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in the future. Although December's rate cut is uncertain, rates may drop to around 3% by the end of 2026 [3]. - The core contradiction in the U.S. market lies between high valuations and the uncertain prospects of AI. While AI's potential remains, the timeline for its widespread productivity enhancement is uncertain, leading to justified concerns about an AI bubble [3]. - It is recommended to adjust annual return expectations to align with single-digit profit growth rates and to prepare for potential market corrections of 10%-20%. The current market has already seen a 5% correction, but valuations have not yet returned to reasonable levels, suggesting a continued wait for better entry points [4]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares and H-shares - A-shares and H-shares experienced a synchronized adjustment due to external market declines and prior pressure releases, influenced by the drop in U.S. markets and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]. - The core factors affecting A-share performance remain its fundamentals and liquidity. A dovish path from the Federal Reserve is expected to continue, with domestic asset allocation likely favoring equity markets in a low-interest environment [5]. - After the current adjustment phase, A-shares and H-shares are anticipated to continue rising in the following year, supported by improved performance in a recovering inflation environment [5]. Group 4: Sector Insights - High-valuation technology stocks are sensitive to liquidity changes and may face adjustment pressures, while dividend stocks and technology sectors exhibit a seesaw effect, with dividend stocks currently showing advantages [6]. - Consumer stocks have been less affected by liquidity expectations due to their adjusted valuations, presenting opportunities for left-side positioning despite limited fundamental improvement [6]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a 20% adjustment, with historical bull market corrections typically ranging from 20%-30%, indicating potential for increased focus once adjustments are complete [6].

编辑｜MAX 编者按：下面的文字是一段AI生成的视频文本，近期在网上流行。这段视频模仿巴菲特老人家的口气 对AI热泼了一瓢冷水。我们认为这虽然不是巴菲特本人的话，但其中的一些信息和逻辑值得借鉴。我 们把它翻译过来，供读者一阅。希望对你有启发帮助。 英文原文： We're sitting here in late 2025, and I'm watching the biggest tech companies in America spend 400 billion on AI infrastructure in a single year. That's not a typo—400 billion. 中文翻译： 我们现在身处2025年末，我正目睹美国最大的科技公司在一年内投入4000亿美元用于AI基 础设施。这不是笔误——4000亿美元。 中文翻译： 微软、亚马逊、谷歌、Meta。它们都在竞相建造足以覆盖曼哈顿的数据中心。它们拼命购 买芯片，与那些甚至还没有营收的公司签署价值数千亿美元的协议。 英文原文： And folks, I'm getting that same sinking feeling I ...

Core Viewpoint - The core driving force behind the current technology stock market rally is primarily concentrated in the AI computing hardware industry chain, including chips, PCBs, and liquid cooling systems. Short-term, there is some valuation pressure accumulated, but the notion of an AI investment bubble is considered premature [1] Group 1: AI Industry Valuation - AI is characterized as a growth industry rather than a traditional industry, and current valuations in the AI sector are not deemed excessively high when compared to U.S. tech companies [1] - Even if there is a temporary increase in valuations, the AI industry can absorb this through high growth rates, indicating resilience in its market dynamics [1] Group 2: Industry Evolution - The process of survival of the fittest within the AI sector will further optimize the development landscape, suggesting ongoing evolution and potential for improved market conditions [1]

在科技投资巨头软银集团退出AI行业领头羊英伟达之后，本已对科技行业高估值感到紧张的投资者们 受到了惊吓，导致周三亚盘软银股价一度暴跌10%。 这家日本公司的股价在东京早盘交易中触及一个月低点。此前，软银于周二披露，已作价58.3亿美元出 售了所持的全部英伟达股份，为的是给其AI投资项目筹集资金。 尽管软银同时公布了优于预期的季度业绩和一份1拆4的股票分割计划，但股价仍然应声下跌。 软银退出英伟达之际，一场日益激烈的辩论正在上演。像Meta和Alphabet这样的大型科技公司，未来 几年预计将在AI上投入超1万亿美元，但这些巨额开支能否产生相应的回报？ 投资者已经开始质疑，为何大量资本正涌入一个回报尚不确定的技术领域，并且在那些被视为AI竞赛 领跑者的公司中，多数已经取得了惊人的涨幅。周二，英伟达收跌2.96%。 软银此前曾在2019年清仓过一次英伟达。两年后，也就是在ChatGPT问世并引爆历史性涨势之前，该公 司于2020年重新开始小额购入英伟达的股份。 软银披露，截至今年3月底，其已将对这家美国芯片制造商的持股增至约30亿美元。仅从这项投资来 看，软银就做得非常出色：自那时起，英伟达的市值已增长了超过2万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing debate about AI investments, highlighting contrasting views from bullish analysts like Goldman Sachs and bearish investors like Michael Burry, focusing on whether the current AI investment landscape is a bubble or a genuine growth opportunity [1][2]. Group 1: Bullish Perspective - Goldman Sachs asserts that AI investments are not yet overheated, with projections indicating that by October 2025, AI-related investments in the U.S. could reach $300 billion, which is less than 1% of the U.S. GDP [5][6]. - Historical comparisons show that during the peak of the internet bubble, IT investments accounted for 2% of GDP, while electrification reached 5%, suggesting that current AI investment levels are still significantly lower [6][9]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI could generate $20 trillion in present value benefits for the U.S. economy, with businesses potentially capturing $8 trillion of that value, far exceeding current investment levels [8]. - The allocation of the $300 billion investment includes $112 billion for semiconductor chips, $88 billion for data centers, and $65 billion for power supply upgrades, indicating a focus on infrastructure rather than speculative concepts [9][10]. - AI is seen as a genuine efficiency booster across various sectors, with practical applications already yielding tangible benefits, such as improved customer service and operational efficiencies [10][16]. Group 2: Performance of Leading Companies - Major companies like TSMC and NVIDIA are demonstrating strong financial performance, with TSMC reporting a 30.3% year-on-year revenue growth and a 39.1% increase in net profit, driven by high demand for AI chips [12]. - NVIDIA's mid-year report shows revenues of $90.805 billion and a net profit of $45.197 billion, underscoring its dominant position in the AI chip market [12]. - The profitability of these leading firms supports the argument that there is no bubble in the AI sector, as their financial results reflect real demand for AI infrastructure [12]. Group 3: Bearish Perspective - The bearish camp, represented by figures like Michael Burry, warns of potential bubbles in the AI sector, citing excessive spending with insufficient returns, and highlighting that many high-profile AI companies are operating at a loss [21][23]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of AI-driven GDP growth, with reports indicating that nearly 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was reliant on AI investments, suggesting a "hollow" economy [23]. - A significant portion of AI companies, including OpenAI, are facing substantial losses, with OpenAI reporting a net loss of $13.5 billion in the first half of 2025 [23]. - The debate centers around whether current high valuations can be justified by future earnings, with the potential for a market correction if these valuations are not supported by actual profitability [25][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the future of AI investments will depend on the ability of companies to deliver real value and efficiency improvements, distinguishing between those that can sustain high valuations and those that are merely speculative [29]. - As AI technology matures, companies that genuinely enhance productivity and meet new demands are expected to thrive, while those focused on hype without substance may be eliminated from the market [29].