热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 民间追逐黄金白银可以理解为，过多的流动性追逐有限的资产，何况这是与央行政策最没有关联度的资 产。 资本市场得到了一个巨大的圣诞礼物，上周几乎所有风险资产种类一起上涨。纳斯达克的反弹引领了全 球股市，美国充满韧性的消费更带起了资金对经济的乐观情绪，债市也稳中带升。美元走贬，石油价格 大涨，有色金属大涨，黄金大涨，白银暴涨。 美国第三季度GDP环比年化增长4.3%，vs市场预期的3.3%和前期的3.8%。占经济总量七成的消费支出 增长3.5%，家庭信心仍然韧性十足。美国对欧亚出口回升，农产品和制造品表现突出，进口下降（关 税战后去库存），净出口对增长贡献了0.8个百分点。政府支出增长4.6%，主要来自基建、教育、交通 和国防，成为稳定经济的重要支撑。 不过美国经济的增长源头主要集中在数据中心建设和高端人群消费上，凸显经济的K形发展趋势，即强 者一枝独秀，弱者逐渐沉沦。Visa卡预测2025年最后两个月销售总额逾一万亿美元，线上销售量更创纪 录，然而消费者情绪走出了三年来新低。这是一个典型的K形圣诞销量行情，高收入阶层买东西很爽 快，但是低收入阶层十 ...

Group 1 - The stock market typically shows hesitation at the end of the year due to investors' mixed sentiments, with profit-takers looking to secure gains and loss-makers seeking to adjust strategies for the upcoming year [1] - In early December, the A-share market experienced a notable change when Huijin Investment announced increased market entry, particularly in large-cap ETFs, which helped stabilize the market and attract some external funds [1] - The A-share market's weak consolidation phase was altered, leading to a rebound as the trading focus shifted upward, completing a phase of bottom formation [1] Group 2 - In overseas markets, the clearer expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing debates about potential AI investment bubbles have influenced large capital movements, contributing to recent rebounds [2] - AI and technology stocks have been significant drivers in the stock market this year, with the A-share market showing stronger upward momentum compared to the U.S. market, which has been more cautious [2] - The year-end market performance is expected to lead to a bullish trend extending into the new year, creating a rare cross-year market situation, with the potential for a slow bull market to develop [2][3] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market on the first trading day of the new year is often viewed as a predictor of the annual trend, but the end-of-year performance is more indicative of the following year's market outlook [3] - A significant upward movement in the market at year-end, potentially reaching new highs, is likely to foster a more optimistic outlook among investors for the upcoming year [3]

哈喽大家好，今天老张带大家聊聊要说最近全球金融圈最热闹的事儿，非美联储的操作和即将出炉的11 月非农、CPI数据莫属。 一边是美联储刚祭出"降息+扩表"组合拳，市场直接上演"债强股弱"的分裂戏码；另一边是政府停摆的 后遗症还在发酵，关键经济数据承压，投资者的心跟坐过山车似的七上八下。 市场多空博弈加剧 先说说美联储这波"神仙操作"。本周，美联储如期把政策利率下调25个基点，调到3.5%-3.75%区间，看 似中规中矩，实则内部早就吵翻了天。 9:3的投票结果把分歧摆得明明白白：两位地区联储主席古尔斯比、施密德坚决反对降息，理事米兰却 觉得降得不够，主张直接砍50个基点。 更有意思的是点阵图，6位FOMC成员压根不认可这次降息，还放话说2026年全年就计划降1次，这鹰派 姿态，简直是给市场泼了盆冷水。 这波操作直接让市场炸了锅，全周（12月8日至12月12日）大类资产走势分化得离谱。短端美债利率跟 着宽货币信号跌了3.81个基点，跌到3.522%；现货黄金趁机大涨2.43%，冲到4299美元/盎司，避险资金 跑得比谁都快。 可美股就惨了，甲骨文支出猛增、博通业绩指引拉胯的消息，让大家又想起了AI投资泡沫的阴影， ...

宏观经济方面，美国10月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升，主要由零售行业大幅拉动。美国10月JOLTS职位空 缺上升至767万人，高于预期值711.7万人和前值765.8万人。 主要指数相关情况 数据来源：Wind 美国11月NFIB中小企业乐观程度指数有所回升，销售预期和招聘需求回暖。美国1月NFIB中小企业乐 观程度指数录得99%，高于预期值98.3%和前值98.2%。 美国12月Sentix投资信心指数回升。2025年12月，美国Sentix投资信心指数为9.7，较前一月的4.0有所回 升。 配置建议 美股：上周美联储如期降息并意外扩表，但由于甲骨文和博通再度引发市场对AI投资泡沫的担忧，美 股下行。12月会议中委员会也通过释放一些鹰派信号来平衡此次降息，委员会修改了政策声明，以暗示 进一步降息的门槛已经提高。发布会后，市场降息预期回调，目前CME预期2026年降息次数从3次降至 2.2次。 美联储内部继续分歧，理事米兰再次投出反对票，其支持更大幅度降息50bps，而古尔斯比和施密德投 票不降息。另外从2025年的点阵图中可以看到有6位与会者以写下倾向于维持政策利率不变的方式表达 了鹰派的"软反对"，加上一票 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and dovish signals from Powell have led to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, while concerns over AI investment bubbles have caused a downturn in U.S. stocks [1][15][16] - Analysts expect November non-farm employment to show a weak increase of 50,000 jobs, with a high standard deviation of 33,000, indicating significant market divergence [1][15][16] - The anticipated CPI for November is expected to be +3.1% year-on-year, with core CPI also at +3%, maintaining inflation around the 3% mark [1][15][16] Financial Products - The A-share market outlook suggests maintaining patience while waiting for stabilization in overseas markets, with a macro timing model score of -2 indicating a potential adjustment in the A-share index [2][17] - The report notes that the technology growth sector may regain attractiveness after adjustments in November, while the small and micro-cap sectors are viewed with caution [2][17] - Significant inflows into ETFs such as A500ETF and Sci-Tech 50ETF indicate some market optimism, despite ongoing concerns about AI investment bubbles [2][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the PCB drilling process as a key beneficiary of high-end PCB development, recommending domestic leaders in drilling equipment and consumables [10] - The environmental industry is expected to benefit from the central economic work conference's focus on green transformation and energy independence, with investment opportunities in clean energy and recycling sectors [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the "dual carbon" goals in driving the green transition, with specific recommendations for companies in clean energy and waste management sectors [12] Fixed Income - The fixed income report suggests that the bond market may not experience the same downward trend in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, indicating a need for a more flexible approach to bond market operations [5][21] - The issuance of green bonds has increased significantly, with 29 new bonds issued in the week of December 8-12, totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, reflecting growing interest in sustainable finance [7] - The report also notes a substantial increase in secondary capital bonds, with a total transaction volume of approximately 329.2 billion yuan during the same period [8]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 美联储在政策声明中称，美国经济活动在温和扩张，但新增就业放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀依然在 一定程度上处于高位，经济前景仍面临较高不确定性。与此同时，美联储表示将根据需要启动短期美国 国债购买操作。 值得注意的是，此次降息25个基点，美联储12名票委中有9人投票赞成、3人投票反对。芝加哥联储主席 古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德认为没有理由降息，而美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰赞成更大幅度的降 息50个基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后讲话中表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的双 重使命为指引，后续将视情况再采取进一步行动，但基本排除加息可能。他将通胀归咎于关税影响，认 为通胀仍处于较高水平，如果抛开关税因素，通胀率在2%左右偏低水平。 财通证券分析师孙彬彬认为，鲍威尔的发言整体未见超乎寻常的鹰派表述，反而是强调了当前绝不存在 加息的可能，预计后续美联储的决策依旧是数据依赖的，只要就业市场恶化情况没有显著缓解，降息趋 势会延续。 最新发布的点阵图预测显示，多数美联储官员预计在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。美联储 的中 ...

每经记者：赵云 每经编辑：肖芮冬 受行情提振，热门ETF中，创业板ETF（159915）、科创板50ETF（588080）迎来放量上涨，盘中成交 额分别突破15亿元和4亿元。 创业板ETF（159915）、科创板50ETF（588080）规模分别位居以上指数相关产品前列，管理费率仅为 0.15%/年，为投资者布局科技成长板块提供了低成本工具。 消息面来看，上周末相关部门发布新规，调整保险公司业务的风险因子，有望使沪深300、科创板等直 接受益。 每日经济新闻 另一方面，财信证券表示，在12月中旬前后，随着机构资金重新布局明年方向、重要会议召开、美联储 降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，届时A股市场将迎来新一轮做多窗口期；中长期而言， 在"反内卷"改善上市公司业绩、居民储蓄资产入市、全球流动性缓和、科技产业趋势加持下，2026年A 股"慢牛"行情大概率延续。 周一早盘，主要股指大面积飘红，截至10:20，创业板指涨逾2%，日线站上所有趋势线；科创板50指数 亦涨超1.5%，盘面上，商业航天、CPO、固态电池等泛科技题材纷纷走强。 资料显示，创业板指数由创业板中市值大、流动性好的100只股票组成，CP ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a low-level oscillation, with initial signs of stabilization as major indices' moving averages converge, awaiting a new trend in the market [4][7][16] - It is anticipated that a new buying window will open around mid-December, driven by institutional funds repositioning for the next year, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][16] - The long-term outlook suggests a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by improved corporate performance, increased household savings entering the market, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with the market expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan this year, driven by favorable policies and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies [11] - There is a focus on strategic minor metals and industrial metals, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the price gap between precious metals and these metals continues to widen [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application sector and domestic AI computing capabilities, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market trends [17][18] Group 3 - The real estate market is showing signs of divergence, with new home prices increasing while second-hand home prices continue to decline, affecting consumer sentiment [8] - The report notes that the financial sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with regulatory changes expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [12] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to positively impact sectors such as non-ferrous metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [18]

12月5日午后约13时31分，券商板块突然拉升，中银证券（601696）率先大涨，约在13时51分触及涨停板。东方财富、中泰证券、兴业证券、湘财股份、 兴业证券、华泰证券等跟随上涨。 除券商板块外，保险、互联网金融板块也有明显异动。保险指数午后一度涨超5%，中国太保一度涨近8%，中国平安、中国人寿、中国人保、中国人寿等 一度涨超4%。 互联网金融概念股赢时胜（300377）在13时45分左右拉升至"20cm"的涨停板，盘中涨停板封单一度超过69万手。概念股华信永道、安硕信息、银之杰、 指南针、古鳌科技（维权）等也大幅上涨。 责编：何予 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 财信证券发布研报指出，中期来看，随着机构资金逐步开始布局2026年方向、美联储降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，A股市场或将迎来新 一轮做多窗口期。 声明：数据宝所有资讯内容不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, leading to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December, with a probability of 87% for a 25 basis point cut [1] - The 中证500 quality growth index has shown slight increases, with notable performances from stocks like 杰瑞股份 (up 5.73%) and 天山铝业 (up 3.29%) [1] - Financial institutions are beginning to position themselves for 2026, anticipating improved liquidity in the A-share market as concerns over "AI investment bubbles" subside [2] Group 2 - The discussion around the next Federal Reserve chairperson continues to generate market interest, with opinions suggesting that even if 哈西特 is appointed, rapid rate cuts may not be feasible due to the collective decision-making nature of the Fed [1] - The 中证500 quality growth index is managed by 中证指数有限公司, which does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the index [2]