Group 1 - The market has experienced increased volatility since September, with popular sectors like artificial intelligence and TMT undergoing corrections, while resource stocks have continued to strengthen [1] - The mining ETF (159690) opened higher on September 3, rising by 0.53% with a turnover rate exceeding 6%, indicating active trading [2] - Recent data shows that the mining ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 21 million yuan over the past three trading days [2] Group 2 - The precious metals sector has achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for two consecutive quarters, indicating strong fundamental support [2] - The energy metals industry has shown signs of bottom reversal, with improvements in revenue growth, net profit growth, and ROE over the last two quarters [2] - Despite overall pressure on the upstream resource sector in the first half of 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to exhibit strong anti-cyclical capabilities and growth resilience due to structural opportunities [3] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a general increase in precious metal prices [3] - The mining ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme Index, providing exposure to key metal resources such as copper, gold, rare earths, aluminum, and lithium [3] - Resource stocks are currently among the best-matched sectors in terms of fundamentals and valuations, with price increases reflecting earnings elasticity due to rising prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a surge, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and improving demand, particularly in the rare earth and industrial metals markets [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a price increase of over 1.8% as of September 3, with a trading volume exceeding 12 million yuan within the first 15 minutes of opening [1]. - The ETF attracted significant inflows of 75.6 million yuan over the past two days, reaching a new high of 207 million yuan in total assets as of September 2 [1]. - Key constituent stocks included silver, which hit the daily limit, while Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold rose by 5.81% and 4.79%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The industrial metals sector is benefiting from rising copper prices due to supply constraints, with a projected decrease of 52,500 tons in electrolytic copper production in September [3]. - The lithium market is facing oversupply, but high-cost production is being phased out, which may lead to price recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market remains strong, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply disruptions [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is positioned for upward price movement due to low valuations and improving market conditions, with a potential "bull market" beginning [3][4]. - The strategic importance of metals like rare earths and lithium is highlighted in the context of global competition and domestic policy shifts aimed at optimizing production factors [4]. - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF provides diversified exposure to various metals, including copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), and rare earths (13.8%), which helps mitigate investment risks [4].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 2, a total of 33 target price adjustments were made by brokerages for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for Zhongcai International, Zhucheng Technology, and Guangyun Technology, reflecting significant potential upside in their respective sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zhongcai International received a target price increase of 43.65%, with a new target price of 13.00 yuan [2]. - Zhucheng Technology's target price was raised by 41.51%, now set at 75.00 yuan [2]. - Guangyun Technology saw a target price increase of 35.72%, with a new target price of 22.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 35 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on September 2, with notable mentions including Datang Power and China General Nuclear Power, each receiving one recommendation [3]. - Guangyun Technology's rating was upgraded from "Hold" to "Increase" by CITIC Securities [5]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - One company, Yihua Tong, had its rating downgraded from "Buy" to "Hold" by Changjiang Securities [6]. - The only company receiving a new coverage rating was Chifeng Gold, which was rated "Buy" by CITIC Securities [7].

Group 1 - The report details the changes in the registered capital of China Aluminum Corporation as of August 31, 2025, indicating no increase or decrease in the registered capital, which remains at RMB 13,211,666,110 for both securities 601600 and 02600 [1][2] - The total registered capital at the end of the month is RMB 17,155,632,078, with no changes reported in the issued shares or treasury shares for both securities [1][2] - The number of issued shares for security 601600 remains at 13,211,666,110, and for security 02600, it remains at 3,943,965,968, with no changes in the total issued shares [1][2] Group 2 - The report confirms that there are no changes in the share options, warrants, or convertible bonds related to the issuer's share option plan, indicating stability in the company's equity structure [2] - There are no additional changes reported regarding the issued shares or treasury shares, reinforcing the consistency in the company's capital management [2]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company after the acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial, positioning it as a leader in the electrolytic aluminum and alumina industry [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial for 63.52 billion yuan will transform the company into a fully integrated player in the aluminum industry, enhancing its production capabilities and market position [1][3]. - Hongtuo Industrial is a leading integrated aluminum producer in China, with significant production capacities in alumina (19 million tons) and electrolytic aluminum (6.459 million tons) [2][40]. - The company is expected to maintain high dividend yields post-acquisition, with projected net profits of 23.44 billion yuan in 2026, leading to a potential dividend yield of 6.3% to 6.9% depending on the payout ratio [3][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established in 2000 and listed in 2010, plans to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial by May 2025 for 63.52 billion yuan, marking a significant shift from aluminum processing to a fully integrated aluminum production model [1][10]. Financial Performance - Hongtuo Industrial's revenue for 2024 is projected at 149.29 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 18.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 168.7% growth [2][42]. - The company's revenue from aluminum processing is expected to grow, but it has faced pressure from intense competition, leading to a projected net loss of 1.9 billion yuan in 2025 without the acquisition [3][5]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The report highlights a strategic shift in production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, where electricity costs are lower due to abundant hydropower resources, which will help reduce production costs [2][54]. - The planned capacity transfer includes 44.8 thousand tons in 2025, 24.1 thousand tons in 2026, and 83.1 thousand tons in 2027, ultimately increasing Yunnan's capacity to 3.008 million tons by 2027 [55]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is set to become the second-largest electrolytic aluminum and alumina producer in China, following China Aluminum, with a clear competitive advantage due to its integrated production model [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand-supply dynamics in the aluminum industry, which are expected to support stable pricing and profitability [3][43]. Dividend Potential - The company is projected to become a high-dividend stock post-acquisition, with a historical dividend payout ratio increasing from 48% in 2021 to an expected 63.4% in 2024 [3][43].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666, ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國鋁業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601600 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 13,211,666,110 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 13,211,666,110 | II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is heating up, and the transition from the traditional off - season to the peak season in the domestic market supports aluminum prices [1]. - The domestic alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the rising cost may limit the downside of prices; the electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be cautiously bullish; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish [5][7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side Changes**: The construction of China Aluminum's bauxite mine and the start of the bauxite project in Qingzhen may reduce the domestic bauxite production and import in September. The domestic alumina production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the production may decrease in September. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic alumina import in September [4][21][39]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory in ports has decreased, while the total inventory has increased [17][34]. - **Price and Cost**: The bauxite price has increased, pushing up the alumina production cost. The average full - cost of alumina production is about 2890 yuan/ton [21][26]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2800 - 3000 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side Changes**: Some domestic projects are expected to increase production capacity, but the overall production in September may decrease. Overseas projects may reduce the domestic import in September [6][65][68]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory has increased, the bauxite inventory in ports has increased, and the inventory in LME has increased [51]. - **Price and Cost**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16650 yuan/ton [65]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum [7]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side Changes**: The production of waste aluminum may increase, and the production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in September. The import of unforged aluminum alloy may increase [9][80][91]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises' raw materials and finished products may increase [91]. - **Price and Cost**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy is close to loss, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on dips for the main contract or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a mid-term dividend to reward shareholders. For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.81% [4][6] - The revenue for Q2 2025 was 60.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.65%. The net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.13% [4] - The performance fluctuations were mainly due to increased profits from the production and sales of primary aluminum and alumina, alongside decreased margins from self-produced coal and reduced profits from trading activities [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from the primary aluminum segment was 75.95 billion yuan (up 11.38% year-on-year), while the alumina segment generated 33.24 billion yuan (up 5.75% year-on-year). Production volumes for metallurgical-grade alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and coal increased by 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average price of alumina in the domestic futures market for H1 2025 was 3,192 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The price of alumina is expected to stabilize as industry supply pressures ease [5] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained its mid-term dividend policy, planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling 2.11 billion yuan (before tax), which accounts for approximately 30% of the company's net profit for the first half of 2025 [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 14.84 billion yuan, 15.89 billion yuan, and 16.61 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.08, 8.48, and 8.11 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].