值得注意的是，正如我们昨天在文中提到的，强化降息预期的是，下一任美联储主席的领跑者——白宫 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特——被认为与特朗普支持降低借贷成本的立场一致，从而进一步支撑 金价。 瑞银表示，市场参与者再次开始为12月美国降息定价，继续看好短期前景，年底金价预测为4200美元， 明年年中为4500美元。 从技术面来看，金价自11月初涨势的78.2%斐波那契回撤位4000美元附近反弹后持续走高，突破4100美 元确认了自11月峰值以来的回调已经结束。日线图4小时显示，技术指标维持积极动能，黄金进一步上 涨空间仍存。 上行方面，多头的下一个目标突破4200美元，下一阻力位将是11月13日高点4245美元。突破该位后， 4300美元及4381美元历史高点将成为潜在目标。 下行方面，若跌破4100美元，将打开测试20日简单移动平均线(SMA)的大门，该均线位于4065美元附 近，随后可能进一步回落至4000美元。 【EBC平台风险提示及免责条款】：本材料仅供一般参考使用，无意作为（也不应被视为）值得信赖的 财务、投资或其他建议。 截至11月26日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为 ...

全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，11月26日黄金etf持有量为1045.43吨，较上一交易日 增加4.57吨。周三(11月26日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4162.35美元/盎司，涨幅0.79%，日内最高上探至 4173.20美元/盎司，最低触4129.07美元/盎司。 美国国债收益率周三涨跌不一，10年期收益率尾盘持平于3.999%，近一个月来首次跌破4%关口；两年 期收益率小幅上涨至3.483%，而30年期收益率则略降至4.645%。收益率曲线的牛市平坦化现象显现， 两年期与10年期收益率差距从54.3个基点缩窄至51.5个基点。这部分得益于英国债市的强势反弹，英国 财政大臣里夫斯的预算案缓解了长期财政担忧，推动投资者涌入英国长期债券。 美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数录得21.6万人，低于预期的22.5万人和上修后的前值22.2万人，为 2025年4月12日当周以来新低。 【市场要闻速递】 周三，美元指数下跌0.24%，刷新一周低点至99.55，尽管经济数据强劲，但投资者对美联储宽松政策的 预期未变。这与全球债市的联动效应密切相关。 大多数银行研究机构认为，到2026年 ...

截至11月25日，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量为1,040.86吨，与前一交易日持 平。 | Ounces | Tonnes | | --- | --- | | 33,464,572.39oz 1,040.850 | | | 25 Nov 2025 | 25 Nov 2025 | （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 1,040.86 tons as of November 24, marking an increase of 0.29 tons from the previous trading day, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a peak of $4,139.82 per ounce, the highest level since November 14, closing at $4,134.54, an increase of $68.77 or 1.69% [5]. - The market is currently pricing in a 76% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, a substantial rise from 42% a week prior, influenced by dovish comments from Fed officials [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite a slight increase in the US dollar index, gold maintained strong performance due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.5 basis points to 4.042% [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including ADP employment figures and producer price index, are expected to provide market direction ahead of the Fed's silent period [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a moderately bullish signal for gold, with the relative strength index suggesting potential further price increases [6]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,150 and the cycle high of $4,245 reached on November 13, while critical support is at the upward trend line around $4,030 [7].

Group 1 - As of November 24, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has a gold holding of 1,040.86 tons, which is an increase of 0.29 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising concerns over a potential AI bubble and highlights the importance of not hastily selling investments due to bubble fears [2][3] - It emphasizes the strong performance of NVIDIA, which surged over 5% after strong earnings, but also notes a subsequent decline of 3.2% [4] - The article suggests that higher wealth taxes could be a potential catalyst for the bubble to burst, rather than tighter monetary policy [5] - It recommends several ETFs as potential hedges against tech-related risks in the current market environment [8] ETF Highlights - **Cambria Tail Risk ETF**: Aims to mitigate significant downside market risk by investing in out-of-the-money put options on the U.S. stock market, with fees of 59 basis points and an annual yield of 2.48% [9] - **AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF**: Seeks capital appreciation through short sales of domestically traded equity securities, charging 380 basis points in fees and yielding 7.25% annually [10] - **Invesco Global ex-US High Yield Corporate Bond ETF**: Invests in U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt from non-U.S. issuers, with fees of 35 basis points and an annual yield of 6.63% [11] - **Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF**: Focuses on the healthcare sector, which is considered safe in high-risk environments, with fees of 8 basis points and an annual yield of 1.60% [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Trend**: The precious metals market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The market is currently in a special stage of "ambiguous policy expectations + official data vacuum", and prices are mainly determined by the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts [3][4][6]. - **Gold**: In the long - term, factors supporting the strength of precious metals remain unchanged. After a rapid rise in October, the market needs to consolidate through oscillations. In the short - term, gold is in a high - level wide - range oscillation. Technically, it is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $3950 - 4000 and resistance at $4200. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range, showing no clear long or short signals [4]. - **Silver**: In the short - term, silver prices are also determined by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility and high - level wide - range oscillations. Technically, it is in an ascending triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $48 - 48.5 and resistance at $55. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range. The long - term price center of silver will follow that of gold. The silver market has a fragile supply chain, and its price volatility is higher than that of gold [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - **Fed Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is unclear. There are still differences within the Fed on whether to cut rates in December. The market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2026. After the Fed's dovish remarks on Friday, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded to 71%. The lack of official data for the December Fed decision will lead to repeated fluctuations in the market around rate - cut expectations [9]. - **Fed Independence**: The selection of the next Fed chair and related events may trigger market expectations regarding the Fed's independence and its interest rate cut path in December 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - **Gold and Silver ETF Positions**: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1040.57 tons this week. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased to 15257.92 tons, with a decrease of 39.5 tons this week. This shows that institutional investors' physical allocation demand for gold and silver is at a high level [11][33]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETFs**: Global physical gold ETFs achieved capital inflows for five consecutive months, with a single - month inflow of $8.2 billion in October. Gold ETF trading volume soared to a record $17 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [38]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories The report mentions gold and silver exchange inventories but does not provide specific analysis content. Only the data sources are given, which are WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [48][54]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences The report only mentions domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [60]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report only mentions precious metal ratios and does not provide specific analysis content. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index The report only mentions the gold ETF volatility index and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [70].

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1039.43 tons of gold as of November 20, a decrease of 4.29 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On November 20, the spot gold price closed at $4077.29 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.27%, reaching a high of $4132.48 and a low of $4054.99 during the day [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the delayed September non-farm payroll report, showing an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected and above August's rate of 4.3%, indicating a "strong surface, weak interior" employment report [3] - This employment report has shifted market focus from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives, impacting global market sentiment [3]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（11月20日）维持震荡走势，开盘价4096.61美元/盎司，最高价4110.10美元/盎司，最低价 4038.92美元/盎司，收盘价4070.24美元/盎司。 消息面： 周四公布的美国9月失业率录得4.4%，高于市场预期4.3%，前值为4.3%；美国9月季调后非农就业人口录得11.9 万人，高于市场预期5万人，前值为1.7万人。 CNBC评美国9月非农报告指出，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位远超预期。当月非农就业人数增加11.9万，市场 共识预期为新增5万人。8月份数据经下修后显示减少4000个岗位，7月份总就业人数也被下修至7.2万，较此前 公布数据减少7000人。除就业人数外，报告显示失业率微升至4.4%，创2021年10月以来最高水平。而包含放弃 求职及因经济原因从事兼职工作者的更全面失业指标则微降至8%。这份报告终结了自9月初开始、并因持续44 天的创纪录政府停摆而延长的劳动力市场数据空窗期。总体而言，报告显示劳动力市场进入秋季后的态势与全 年基本一致——保持缓慢但稳定的步伐，在特朗普政府激进政策行动引发的异常经济波动时期，企业既不愿大 量招聘新员工，也不愿裁减现有人员。 英国金 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 截至11月20日，全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减少4.29吨，当前持仓量为1039.43吨。 ...