8月20日，持续流入港股的南向资金罕见净流出约146.82亿港元，恒升指数当天上涨0.17%，也大幅跑输上证指数1.04%的涨幅，今年持续领跑的港股 会被A股赶上吗？ 截至8月20日收盘，恒生指数今年累计上涨25.45%，领先上证指数12.37%的涨幅。但过去一个月，上证指数涨幅接近6%，而恒生指数仅为0.69%。 在这背后，港元汇率、港元拆息近期迅速飙升引发全球投资者关注。 8月18日〜19日，1个月香港港元银行同业拆息（HIBOR）连续两天分别上涨56个基点，报2.574%，创近3个月新高。香港金管局（下称"金管局"）的 猛烈"抽水"是主因。 建银国际首席港股策略师赵文利对第一财经记者表示，近期因港元汇率触及7.85弱方兑换保证，金管局为稳定港元汇率，再次入市干预，先后于8月13 日、8月14日买入70.65亿港元和33.76亿港元，银行体系总结余于8月15日减少至537.16亿港元。今年6月以来，金管局已12次承接港元卖盘，累计承 接1199.7亿港元，相当于今年5月初注入1294亿港元流动性的92.7%。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is considering extending trading hours to a five-day, 24-hour trading mechanism, which could significantly stimulate broker stocks and the exchange itself [2][5]. Group 1: Trading Hours Extension - HKEX CEO Charles Li mentioned that the exchange is studying the implementation of a 24-hour trading system, taking into account international experiences and local market conditions [3]. - The process of extending trading hours will depend on system upgrades, risk management improvements, and regulatory framework maturity [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Broker Stocks - The Hong Kong Securities ETF has surged over 64% this year, outperforming A-share broker stocks, indicating strong market momentum [2][5]. - Analysts believe that A-share broker stocks still have revaluation opportunities, especially in light of the positive market conditions and increasing trading volumes [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Market Competitiveness - HKEX is committed to strategic investments to maintain global competitiveness, focusing on optimizing data platforms and upgrading trading and settlement systems [3]. - The exchange has recently implemented a reduction in minimum price fluctuation for certain stocks, aimed at lowering trading costs and enhancing efficiency [4]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - As of the second quarter, active equity funds are underweight in both A-share and Hong Kong broker sectors, suggesting potential for increased institutional investment as market conditions improve [6]. - Current valuations for A-share and Hong Kong broker sectors are relatively low, with price-to-book ratios at 1.66x and 1.17x respectively, indicating potential for value reallocation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) is considering a 24-hour trading mechanism in response to global competition and market trends, particularly observing Nasdaq's plans for implementation in 2026 [1] Group 1: Strategic Investments - HKEX's CEO, Charles Li, emphasized the importance of strategic investments to maintain global competitiveness, particularly in data platform optimization and trading settlement system upgrades [1] - The company is committed to increasing capital expenditure in these areas without hesitation [1] Group 2: Trading Hours Extension - The discussion around extending trading hours is ongoing, with HKEX adopting a cautious and gradual approach [1] - The company plans to study the implementation of a 24-hour trading mechanism by learning from international peers while considering local market conditions [1] Group 3: Settlement Cycle - HKEX is actively engaging with market participants to explore shortening the settlement cycle for the cash market [1] - The technical systems are expected to support a T+1 settlement cycle by the end of this year, although the actual implementation will depend on feedback from various market participants [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) has seen a significant increase of over 66% year-to-date, outperforming A-share brokerage stocks [1] - Since September 24 of last year, the Hong Kong Securities ETF has surged by 167%, marking the highest increase in the market [1] - As of August 20, southbound capital has recorded a net inflow of 876 billion yuan this year, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, setting a new historical record [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities ETF has a total of 16 constituent stocks, with the top ten accounting for over 89% of the weight, indicating high elasticity [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 9.14 billion yuan in the last 20 days and a total of 15.537 billion yuan since June 25, bringing its latest scale to over 28 billion yuan [2] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the continuous upward trend of equity asset returns and the potential for a value reassessment in the brokerage sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) exceeded expectations in Q2 performance, primarily driven by higher-than-expected investment income [1] Financial Performance - Core profit, excluding investment income, showed a strong year-on-year growth of approximately 40%, aligning with expectations [1] - The average daily turnover in the cash market nearly doubled year-on-year during the period [1] Earnings Forecast - Following the Q2 performance and recent market turnover trends, Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for HKEX for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1] - The rating remains "Buy," with the target price increased from HKD 500 to HKD 509 [1] Investment Income Outlook - Management indicated that with the decline in HIBOR and the reduction of external investment portfolios due to funding headquarters acquisitions, the outlook for investment income is expected to weaken [1] - Goldman Sachs' forecasts already incorporate these factors, predicting a year-on-year decline in investment income of approximately 17% and 11% for the next two years [1] - Despite this, strong profit growth is anticipated to continue in the second half of the year [1]

今年3月9日，纳斯达克总裁Tal Cohen宣布，计划在其股票交易所推出周一至周五全天24小时交易服 务，预计服务将在2026年下半年启动，但需获得监管部门批准并与业内其他公司协调。此前，芝加哥期 权交易所全球市场公司在2月份表示，正在等待监管部门批准，将把其股票交易所的交易时间延长至每 周五天、每天24小时。纽约证券交易所于10月提交申请，计划在平日提供22小时交易服务。 最近，港交所动作频频，各种优化交易措施相继出台。7月28日，香港交易所正式宣布，香港证券市场 下调最低上落价位的第一阶段于8月4日生效。所谓最低上落价位是每只股票的最小价格变动单位，这项 措施将有助于降低市场的交易成本并提升交易效率。 香港交易所发布的消息显示，本次第一阶段的调整则会主要涉及到股价10港元至20港元以及20港元至50 港元的股票，这两大范围的最低上落价位将分别由0.02港元调整为0.01港元以及由0.05港元调整为0.02港 申万宏源 中信建投 中信证券 中金公司 申万宏源 中信建投证券 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 5.54 0.06 1.09% 1.28% 0.91% 0.36% 0.00% 0.36% 0.91% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Core Viewpoint - The recent outflow of southbound funds from Hong Kong stocks and the rising HIBOR rates indicate potential shifts in market dynamics, with A-shares possibly catching up to Hong Kong stocks in performance [2][10]. Market Performance - As of August 20, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.45% this year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 12.37%. However, in the past month, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by nearly 6%, while the Hang Seng Index has only risen by 0.69% [2][11]. - The recent performance of the Hang Seng Index has been under pressure due to rising interest rates and a shift in investor sentiment towards A-shares [10][12]. Interest Rates and Currency Dynamics - The 1-month HIBOR has surged significantly, reaching 2.574% on August 19, marking a rapid increase from previous levels [4][6]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the market to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, buying a total of 104.41 billion HKD in early August, which has led to a reduction in the banking system's liquidity [2][5]. - The HKMA's actions have resulted in a decrease in the banking system's surplus to 537.16 billion HKD, which is expected to further influence HIBOR rates and the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate [6][7]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow exceeding 950 billion HKD this year, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks despite recent market fluctuations [12]. - The sentiment among institutional investors is becoming more cautious, yet the overall bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market remains intact [12]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong dollar may continue to appreciate, potentially moving towards the strong side of the peg at 7.75, especially if the US dollar weakens further [7][8]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a more favorable environment for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 14.076 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 8.519 billion HKD, up 39% year-on-year [2][6] - The report emphasizes the recovery of trading sentiment and the potential for performance and valuation recovery, driven by increased trading activity and improved market conditions [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the trading fees and transaction system usage fees increased by 49%, settlement and clearing fees by 48%, and listing fees by 13% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the cash market reached 240.2 billion HKD, more than double that of the first half of 2024, with the average daily trading volume for the Stock Connect program also showing significant growth [6] - The report projects a strong growth trajectory for the company, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 18.8 billion HKD, 20 billion HKD, and 21.1 billion HKD respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 6%, and 5% [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised its profit forecasts for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) for 2025 and 2026 by 7.3% and 4.0% to HKD 165 billion and HKD 173 billion respectively, maintaining an outperform rating and increasing the target price by 8% to HKD 500, indicating a potential upside of 15.3% [1] Group 1 - HKEX's Q2 2025 main fee income met expectations, while profits exceeded both CICC's and market forecasts [2] - Q2 2025 total revenue increased by 33% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 72.2 billion, with main fee income rising by 31% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 55.4 billion, and profits up by 41% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 44.4 billion [2] - For the first half of the year, total revenue rose by 33% year-on-year to HKD 140.8 billion, and profits increased by 39% year-on-year to HKD 85.2 billion [2] Group 2 - Q2 trading and settlement income grew by 40% year-on-year but decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, with active spot trading and weakening marginal performance in derivatives [2] - Spot trading and settlement income increased by 65% year-on-year but decreased by 4% quarter-on-quarter, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of HKD 2,377 billion, up 95% year-on-year [2] - The number of IPOs completed in Q2 was 27, raising HKD 907.5 billion, a significant increase of 960% year-on-year and 386% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 3 - Total investment income in Q2 increased by 31% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 16.8 billion, with a 17% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter increase when excluding non-recurring foreign exchange gains [3] - Margin and clearing house fund income rose by 25% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.1 billion, driven by increased margin requirements and higher open interest in derivatives [3] - Proprietary fund income, excluding foreign exchange impacts, grew by 6% year-on-year but fell by 19% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.9 billion, attributed to an increase in fund scale [3]