热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 康远宁 下行风险：俄乌和谈达成协议，宏观黑天鹅事件 市场分析 本期三大机构平衡表依然指向2026年供应过剩在200至300万桶/日之间，但由于当前石油市场的二元分 化结构以及中国持续的囤油需求，过剩主要体现在制裁油端，合规油累库力度仍有待观察，短期中东局 势依然紧张，美国持续在中东地区布兵，对伊朗的打击可能箭在弦上，伊朗不同于委内，由于其地缘位 置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木兹海峡，因此油价对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞 拉。 需求：EIA对2026年需求增长预估为114万桶/日，较上月预测下修10万桶/日，中国需求增长21万桶/日， 印度需求增长29万桶/日，亚太其他国家不含中日印需求增加26万桶/日，美国需求增长持平，中东需求 增长6万桶/日，非洲需求增长20万桶/日，拉美需求增加15万桶/日。OPEC预计2026年全球需求同比增长 138万桶/日，较上月基本持平。OPEC认为印度需求增长22万桶/日，中国需求增长19万桶/日，中东需求 增长16万桶/日，拉美需求增长13万桶/日，非洲需求增长16万桶/ ...

GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：地缘风险或有反复， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 暂时观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 观点综述 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2026年1月18日 2 01 本周原油观点：地缘风险或有反复，暂 ...

过去几年，石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国在油价下跌之际一直在竭力维护自身的市场份额，而现在，他们不得不应对一个意想不到的新变量：美国总统特 朗普正采取行动主导委内瑞拉的石油供应，并推动能源市场向着有利于美国消费者的方向发展。 业内人士透露，长期倡导增加全球石油产量并以每桶50美元为目标价的特朗普，当前正计划实施一项全面举措，旨在修复委内瑞拉油田并推广其产量。此 举或将重塑全球石油格局 ——使美国掌控这一欧佩克创始成员国之一的产量。再加上美国自身巨大的产量，这使美国在已经饱受供应过剩困扰的市场中， 扮演一个极具潜在颠覆性的角色。 尽管不少分析师预计，重振委内瑞拉衰败的石油产业需要"巨额投资和漫长时间"，但一些人也指出，即使该国短期内仅出现产量小幅回升(随后在长期内大 幅增长)——也可能加剧全球供需失衡，继而进一步压低油价。 这一局面其实已经给不少欧佩克成员国出了"难题"：是冒着损害自身收入和市场份额的风险削减供应以支撑油价，还是避免激怒难以预测的特朗普？ 凯投宏观首席气候与大宗商品经济学家David Oxley指出，"各国既要维护自身利益，又不能激怒美国，这种内在矛盾正压制着全球原油市场。" 据海湾地区的欧佩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's initiative to revamp Venezuela's oil fields and market its output, which could allow the U.S. to control production from an OPEC founding member and disrupt the global oil market [2]. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Production Outlook - Some OPEC members believe that if the Venezuelan government modifies regulations to attract U.S. investors, the country could increase production by 2 million barrels per day within one to three years, up from the current less than 1 million barrels [3]. - Saudi Arabia is currently taking a wait-and-see approach, assessing that restoring Venezuela's production will take years and that U.S. companies need legal frameworks and guarantees before investing billions to repair Venezuela's infrastructure [3]. Group 2: U.S. Influence on Oil Market - The U.S. strategy regarding Venezuela could complicate OPEC's efforts to manage the market, as large reserves would fall under U.S. control, distancing them from OPEC [5]. - A recent report from JPMorgan indicates that this shift could give the U.S. greater influence over the oil market, potentially keeping prices at historically low levels and reshaping the power balance in the international energy market [5]. Group 3: Current Oil Price Trends - Due to increased global production and concerns about the global economy, oil prices have significantly dropped, with Brent crude currently trading around $63 per barrel and U.S. benchmark crude around $59 per barrel, both down about 20% from a year ago [7]. - Analysts have been revising down oil price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting an average price of $58 for Brent and $54 for U.S. crude this year, with expectations of even lower prices next year [7]. - The ongoing low oil prices are expected to pressure global producers' profits and budgets, with prices falling below $50 per barrel potentially harming the U.S. shale oil industry, which has largely ignored Trump's calls for increased production [7].

过去几年，石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国在油价下跌之际一直在竭力维护自身的市场份额，而现在， 他们不得不应对一个意想不到的新变量：美国总统特朗普正采取行动主导委内瑞拉的石油供应，并推动 能源市场向着有利于美国消费者的方向发展。 业内人士透露，长期倡导增加全球石油产量并以每桶50美元为目标价的特朗普，当前正计划实施一项全 面举措，旨在修复委内瑞拉油田并推广其产量。此举或将重塑全球石油格局——使美国掌控这一欧佩克 创始成员国之一的产量。再加上美国自身巨大的产量，这使美国在已经饱受供应过剩困扰的市场中，扮 演一个极具潜在颠覆性的角色。 尽管不少分析师预计，重振委内瑞拉衰败的石油产业需要"巨额投资和漫长时间"，但一些人也指出，即 使该国短期内仅出现产量小幅回升(随后在长期内大幅增长)——也可能加剧全球供需失衡，继而进一步 压低油价。 想要油价涨的OPEC VS 想要油价跌的美国 这一局面其实已经给不少欧佩克成员国出了"难题"：是冒着损害自身收入和市场份额的风险削减供应以 支撑油价，还是避免激怒难以预测的特朗普？ 凯投宏观首席气候与大宗商品经济学家David Oxley指出，"各国既要维护自身利益，又不能激怒美国， ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to take control of Venezuela's oil supply, potentially reshaping the global oil market amid an already oversupplied environment [1] - Analysts predict that even a slight increase in production from Venezuela could exacerbate global supply-demand imbalances and further depress oil prices [1][3] - The combined oil reserves of Guyana, Venezuela, and U.S. producers could allow the U.S. to control approximately 30% of global total reserves [1] Group 2 - Some OPEC members believe that if Venezuela modifies regulations to attract U.S. investors, it could increase production by 2 million barrels per day within one to three years [2] - Saudi Arabia is currently taking a wait-and-see approach, assessing that restoring Venezuela's production will take years and requires significant investment [2] - Other Gulf OPEC members see Trump's plan as a potential glimmer of hope for the oil market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy regarding Venezuela complicates OPEC's efforts to manage the market, as large reserves may fall under U.S. control [3] - A recent report from JPMorgan indicates that this shift could grant the U.S. greater influence over oil prices, potentially keeping them at historically low levels [3] Group 4 - Global oil prices have significantly dropped due to increased production and concerns over the global economy, with Brent crude currently trading around $63 per barrel [4] - Analysts have been revising down oil price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting an average of $58 for Brent crude this year [4] - The ongoing low oil prices are expected to pressure profits and budgets for global producers, particularly affecting the U.S. shale oil industry [4] Group 5 - Saudi Arabia's cost of extracting oil is below $10 per barrel, but it requires prices above $100 to eliminate its budget deficit [5] - The country faces significant domestic spending commitments, leading to an expanding budget deficit and increased borrowing needs [5] - Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" plan aims to diversify the economy by stimulating growth in tourism, entertainment, and sports sectors [5]

■毛艺融 中东资本投资中国的热情愈发高涨。1月5日，阿布扎比投资局旗下全资子公司正式以领投方身份，完成 了对鼎晖投资管理有限公司第五期美元基金（CDHFundV）的接续基金注资。另外，精锋医疗科技股份 有限公司、MiniMax正式登陆港股，两家公司基石投资阵容里均出现了阿布扎比投资局的身影。 近年来，中东资本青睐中国科技企业，在笔者看来，这基于中东国家经济转型的战略需求、全球资本再 平衡背景下中国资产的独特吸引力，以及中国企业与中东资本的"双向奔赴"。 其一，中东国家转型诉求强烈，将科技等产业视为"新的石油"。 从传统能源到新能源，从一级市场到二级市场，从大型基建项目到初创科技企业，中东资本的投资触角 正加速延伸，折射出其对中国优质资产愈发浓厚的兴趣。 这一转变的底层逻辑，是中东国家的转型焦虑。沙特"2030愿景"、阿联酋的全球投资战略，为中东资 本"出海"投资提供了明确的政策支撑，也勾勒出了其欲摆脱石油经济依赖的发展路径。 通过投资，中东资本有力推动了本土石油产业升级。例如，2025年9月份，科威特石化工业公司斥资 6.38亿美元拿下万华化学集团股份有限公司旗下烟台万华石化有限公司25%的股权。同月，中国石 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil price may be strong, with Brent possibly reaching the $65 - 68 per barrel range. In the first half of the year, Brent and WTI still face significant downward pressure, potentially testing $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of the outer market, testing 380 yuan per barrel. The oil price decline accelerated under the influence of the current trade friction, but the medium - and long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Attention should be paid to the potential reversal of macro expectations, which may amplify oil price fluctuations [5]. - The Iranian situation has rapidly deteriorated, and there may be some emotional premium in the short term, continuing the upward trend. In the medium - and long - term, Venezuelan crude oil may have a greater impact on the heavy - oil market, with a temporarily limited marginal impact on the global crude oil market. At least Chinese local refineries will be the final recipients, and there is currently a large amount of crude oil in transit. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is difficult to interrupt, and attention should be paid to the rhythm. OPEC+ production increase continues, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to disprove global inventory accumulation in the next 3 months [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In 2026, the global crude oil supply is generally loose, with continuous structural surplus pressure. The demand growth rate significantly slows down, with an annual increase of only about 0.8%, and the demand structure is accelerating the shift from transportation fuel - driven to chemical raw material - driven [5]. - The short - term valuation is at a medium level. The strategy includes short - term unilateral waiting and not trying to go short prematurely, clearing long positions in calendar spreads and waiting, and closing long positions in EFS spread at high prices [7]. 2. Macro - The gold - oil ratio has strengthened again, short - term inflation has declined, and attention should be paid to the medium - and long - term "re - inflation" trading. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened again, and social financing has stabilized [22][23][24]. 3. Supply - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026. In 2025, OPEC+ had significant cumulative production increases. Non - OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana have high - level production operations, with an estimated supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - The supply situation varies by country. For example, the UAE's Upper Zakum crude oil faced weak demand in February 2025; Saudi Arabia plans to adjust the official selling price of crude oil in February, etc. Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian issue, which may cause an emotional premium of $3 - 5 per barrel [8]. 4. Demand - The demand in developed economies is in a structural decline, while the demand increment mainly comes from non - OECD countries, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. China remains an important engine of demand growth in the Asia - Pacific region. The demand structure is shifting from transportation fuel to chemical raw materials [5]. - In Asia, China's new crude oil processing capacity since 2000 has exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day, and the second - batch non - state - owned import quota has been issued in 2026. In the US and Europe, the approaching spring refinery maintenance season will reduce the short - term demand for crude oil [10]. 5. Inventory - The US commercial inventory has stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing is still significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventory has declined, and gasoline inventory has increased. The global in - transit crude oil inventory has declined from a high level, and the global crude oil floating storage is high [68][73][75]. 6. Price and Spread - The spot market performance during the holiday was weak. The Dubai crude oil spread in the Middle East reached a six - week high, and the freight rate of very large crude carriers from the world to Asia dropped significantly. The North American basis has stabilized, the monthly spread has rebounded slightly, and the SC valuation is at a medium - low level with a stable monthly spread [85][94][95].

受市场供应过剩信号影响，全球最大原油出口国沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调原油售价，但其对东亚地 区的原油销量仍将维持在常规水平之上。 据知情交易商透露，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司计划向中国以外的亚洲炼油企业供应的2月装船原油，将 较常规供应量至少增加900万桶。这些交易商要求匿名，因其未获公开对外发言的授权。沙特阿美方面 暂未回应置评请求。 受全球原油供应过剩担忧加剧的影响，国际原油基准价格创下2020年以来最大年度跌幅，沙特阿美本周 下调了面向亚洲市场的原油售价。交易商称，这使得沙特原油的定价具备了足够竞争力，可与阿布扎比 等周边产区的现货原油品类相抗衡。 责任编辑：李肇孚 受市场供应过剩信号影响，全球最大原油出口国沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调原油售价，但其对东亚地 区的原油销量仍将维持在常规水平之上。 据知情交易商透露，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司计划向中国以外的亚洲炼油企业供应的2月装船原油，将 较常规供应量至少增加900万桶。这些交易商要求匿名，因其未获公开对外发言的授权。沙特阿美方面 暂未回应置评请求。 受全球原油供应过剩担忧加剧的影响，国际原油基准价格创下2020年以来最大年度跌幅，沙特阿美本周 下调了面向亚洲市 ...

▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月6日，委内瑞拉局势成为本周市场开局的焦点也是关键主题所在，昨日的原油市场经历震荡后尾盘抽 高逾1%，周末美军抓捕委内瑞拉领导人的消息给油价带来了一定的地缘政治风险溢价。周二亚市盘 中，油价在经历了近一周的最大涨幅后趋于稳定，交易员们正在权衡委内瑞拉的前景。 尽管如此，整体市场仍面临原油供应过剩的困境，而委内瑞拉的原油产量仅占全球总产量的一小部分 （仅占全球供应量的不到1% ），这意味着该国出口的任何中断都不太可能对油价产生持续影响。供应 过剩已促使沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调对亚洲的原油价格。 知情人士透露，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特计划本周与石油行业高管商讨振兴委内瑞拉能源产业的方 案，美国总统特朗普曾表示美国可能会为委内瑞拉的能源重建工作提供补贴。消息一度让昨日的油价承 压。 周一，加拿大重质原油价格跌至一年来的最低点，交易员们正在权衡更多受制裁的委内瑞拉石油可能流 入美国墨西哥湾沿岸的可能性。加拿大是全球最大的重质原油生产国，近年来，随着通往墨西哥湾沿岸 的输油管道扩建，当地炼油商得以弥补南美原油供应量的减少，加拿大也因此从委内瑞拉原油产量下降 中获益最多。 而 ...