Market Overview - During the Spring Festival period, overseas markets were impacted by geopolitical tensions in Iran, ongoing concerns about AI in the US stock market, and the release of key economic data such as US CPI and GDP[2] - Gold and the US dollar index rose in tandem, while US Treasury yields, US stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding[2] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q4 2025 was reported at +1.4%, significantly below expectations of +2.8% and the previous quarter's +4.4%, primarily due to a -0.9% contribution from government spending[16] - Core CPI and PCE inflation remained sticky, with PCE inflation exceeding expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[14] Asset Performance - Silver led the performance among major assets during the Spring Festival with a 12.44% increase, driven by the escalation of the Iranian situation and rising oil prices[3] - European stock indices outperformed US stocks during this period, with the UK, France, and Germany leading the global equity market[3] Policy and Tariffs - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24[27] - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies from 10% to 15%, indicating potential legislative moves to solidify tariff legality[27] Future Outlook - The combination of better-than-expected US economic data and the Supreme Court ruling is expected to boost risk appetite, particularly benefiting export chains and cyclical sectors until mid-March[8] - A significant rebound in the US economy is anticipated in Q1 2026, driven by the end of the government shutdown's negative impact and the effects of previous interest rate cuts[26]

来源：宏观fans哲 核心观点 核心观点：春节期间，海外市场经历了伊朗地缘冲突发酵、美股AI主题担忧持续、美国CPI和GDP等重要数据发布、最高法裁决特朗普IEEPA关税违法等 事件与数据的冲击，黄金&美元指数共振走高，美债利率&美股&大宗商品先抑后扬。截至最新，白宫公告根据122条款加征全球10%基础关税，特朗普则 威胁对部分经济体加征15%的基础关税。就关税后续推演而言，我们预期特朗普可能采取新的立法"大礼包"来确立加征关税的合法性，其中既包括关税的 加征，也涉及关税分红、地产相关的刺激政策。就市场策略而言，我们仍然预计26Q1的美国经济数据强于预期，进一步压缩美联储3-4月降息预期； 而"美国经济好于预期&IEEPA关税违法裁决&特朗普访华"组合对出口链、周期板块的提振最明显，这一风险偏好预计持续至3月中旬，后续则将面临特 朗普访华"卖现实"交易兑现、以及美联储3-4月不降息的紧货币冲击；同期黄金价格预计保持震荡，直到波动率回落至25-30区间。 大类资产：春节期间，黄金&美元指数共振走高，美债利率&美股&大宗商品先抑后扬。其中，白银延续前期逼仓行情而大涨，伊朗局势的升级带动原油 上涨，最高法院裁定IE ...

It's quite important because you know the the each capital resources have a different risk appetite as well as a different time horizon and as we diversify our business and we need to acquire many asset classes we can find out the best fit of the you know the capital investment and asset class. >> Is that why you entered a relationship with Apollo for music catalog because you needed a long-term time horizon. >> Exactly.And the music capital is a relatively low risk and low return you know the asset class a ...

morpho's fasanara vault has $24m exposure to first brands bankruptcy. $2.5b of $3b collateral was fraudulent. some borrowers sitting 4% from liquidation with another markdown expected. this is the RWA lending stress test nobody wanted. apollo owns 9% of morpho tokens. $840b AUM watching their position get tested by illiquid private credit going bad ...

Apollo’s Marc Rowan knows the unhappy history of Japan’s three lost decades. Painful reckonings over and again for business and government. But that’s the past, not the present. https://t.co/kJAhF9YPAn ...

In this Wall Street Week, David Westin talks to the CEO of alternative investment giant Apollo about Japan’s return to growth. https://t.co/Ww3OPD3c7P ...

Buyout firms are on the brink of a software reckoning, having failed to spot signs that technologies like artificial intelligence would upend one of private equity’s favorite sectors, according to one of Apollo's top executives https://t.co/w6AHr5BpuR ...

SaaS Markets Have Crashed in 2026. But Is Private Credit the Even Bigger Risk? We all know software stocks have entered a bear market in 2026. But the debt side of software might end up being a much bigger deal.IGV is down 23%+ year-to-date. $285 billion in market cap wiped out in a single day. Software P/S ratios compressed from 9x to 6x — levels we haven’t seen since the mid-2010s. But it’s more than just stocks going down.It puts huge stress on private credit’s $600-750 billion exposure to software comp ...

Core Insights - The article discusses potential weaknesses in various sectors of the US economy, particularly focusing on distressed areas and the implications for future earnings and revenues [1][2]. Data Providers - Data providers have shown poor performance year-to-date, with significant declines in stock prices, indicating potential margin issues despite strong competitive moats [2][3]. Biotech Sector - The biotech sector has been underperforming for four years, but there is a belief that prices may mean revert as they become too cheap [2]. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) - SaaS companies are perceived to have stronger moats than the market currently values, but there are concerns about long-term disruption from new technologies [6][8]. Cybersecurity - The cybersecurity sector has mixed performance, with some companies showing resilience while others face significant declines. The overall outlook remains uncertain [13][14]. Payments Companies - The payments sector has seen poor performance, with companies like PayPal and Adyen experiencing significant declines. However, major players like Visa and Mastercard continue to perform relatively well [16][17]. Business Development Companies (BDCs) - BDCs have faced challenges recently, with declines in performance noted at the start of the year. They are essential for providing private credit [18][19]. US Insurance - The insurance sector is struggling, with companies like Progressive and Brown and Brown facing challenges in raising prices and organic growth capabilities [21][22]. Home Builders and Ancillary Services - The homebuilding sector shows mixed results, with some companies performing well while ancillary service providers are thriving due to increased demand for home improvements [23][24][27]. Consumer Discretionary - The consumer discretionary sector reflects the health of the economy, with mixed performance among various companies. The S&P 500 equal weight consumer discretionary index shows a modest increase [31][34]. Restaurants - The restaurant sector is a key indicator of consumer spending, with many companies showing resilience despite economic challenges. However, some, like Red Robin, are struggling significantly [39][40].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced a decline of approximately 0.6%, primarily driven by a drop in big tech stocks, which fell about 0.7% [1][2] - The VIX index is trading with a 20 handle, indicating increased market volatility [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.07% [2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - U.S. military buildup in the Middle East has raised speculation about a potential attack on Iran, dampening market sentiment [2][3] - The trade deficit in the U.S. has reached its widest level in modern history, with tariffs failing to narrow it or boost domestic manufacturing [4][36] Company-Specific Insights - Blue Owl, an asset manager, has faced investor withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, negatively impacting its stock and those of peers like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR [3] - CRH, a building materials giant, reported adjusted revenue in line with estimates and is actively involved in over 100 data center projects across the U.S., indicating strong demand in this sector [19][21] Investment Strategies and Trends - There is a focus on diversifying within the AI theme, with an emphasis on AI infrastructure as a key area for growth [10][11] - Emerging markets (E.M.) are being considered as a source of diversification and earnings growth, with significant inflows noted [11][12] - Companies are advised to invest in defensive AI sectors, such as semiconductors and hardware, to mitigate risks in the current market environment [15][16] Economic Outlook - The upcoming GDP report is expected to show strong growth, with significant investment in the economy contributing to this outlook [36][40] - Wage growth has been broad-based, particularly in manufacturing, indicating a positive economic trajectory [44][50] Corporate Actions and Market Reactions - Bank of America plans to commit $25 billion to private credit deals, reflecting a strategic shift in its investment approach [34] - Walmart's shares have seen a decline despite strong performance, attributed to cautious earnings forecasts amid a challenging economic backdrop [67][70]