Hearing reports Blast was unaffected by the AWS outage todayNot sure who is doing the reporting though ...

This week we've seen a resurgence of interest around Robotics and DeFi for AI AgentsThe first boom may have seen a nasty selloff earlier this year, but builders with conviction have continued to develop viable solutionsHere's a roundup from the past week alone:- @Grayscale DeAI fund opens; TAO leading with 33.5% of its holdings- @opentensor (Bittensor) subnet registration is back with a 128 cap, meaning darwinian evolution of its underlying ecosystem; if you don't compete you'll be replaced!- @bluwhaleai to ...

Good morning to everyone except AWS apparently. ...

Market Overview - Earnings reports have generally exceeded street expectations, particularly for S&P 500 companies, with notable upcoming reports from Tesla and Netflix [2][3] - The market is currently focused on the implications of the ongoing government shutdown, although it has not significantly impacted market sentiment yet [6][12] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to reflect near-term pressures, but long-term innovations like humanoid robots and robo-taxis are being closely watched [3] - Coca-Cola's performance is under scrutiny, especially in light of PepsiCo's recent business turnaround and efficiency improvements [4] - The defense sector is experiencing increased spending due to European purchases, with a focus on which companies are winning government contracts [5] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth for Q3 came in at 4.8% year-over-year, slightly down from 5.2% in Q2, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [7] - Fixed asset investment in China has contracted by 0.5% from January to September, marking the first decline since 2020, primarily due to issues in the property market [8] - Mixed signals are emerging from China's import and export data, with some positive indicators in industrial production despite ongoing challenges in the property sector [9][10] Technical Market Analysis - The S&P 500 is being monitored for key support levels, with upside targets at 6730 and downside support at 6600, while the VIX is currently at 20.2% [20] - There is a concern that the market may be showing signs of exhaustion, particularly as it approaches the traditionally bullish holiday season [14][15] Infrastructure Impact - An AWS outage affected around 70 services, primarily on the East Coast and in the UK, but the situation was resolved without significant long-term impact on share prices [17][19]

Coinbase users were having issues accessing the platform due to an AWS outage.Base was also experiencing issues. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a high growth trajectory for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the domestic computing power capacity bottleneck is expected to be broken through, with a significant increase in domestic chip production anticipated by 2026 [3][5]. - The acceleration of commercialization by overseas AI giants like OpenAI is driving widespread adoption of AI applications, sustaining high demand for computing hardware [3]. - The ongoing U.S.-China tensions are not expected to alter the positive trend in the AI industry, but rather increase the urgency for domestic computing power adoption [5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power Industry - Cambricon (688256) reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1332.5%, and a net profit of 570 million, marking a turnaround from losses [4]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.61 billion, up 2386.4%, with a net profit of 1.61 billion, also a turnaround from losses [4]. - Inventory levels increased to 3.73 billion in Q3 2025, indicating that supply chain disruptions may have been resolved, suggesting a potential for performance growth as the industry adapts [4]. U.S.-China Tensions - The Nexperia incident highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the Dutch government restricting operations of Nexperia due to economic security concerns, leading to Chinese government countermeasures [5]. - This situation underscores the competitive dynamics in the global market, emphasizing the need for domestic computing power solutions [5]. Demand Side Dynamics - Major Chinese internet companies like ByteDance and Alibaba exhibit a "real demand" for computing power, driven by the need for intelligent computing to support business operations and the rise of generative AI applications [6]. - The report suggests focusing on key players in the domestic computing hardware supply chain, including Cambricon and SMIC (981.HK), as well as Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) for investment opportunities [6]. Communication Capabilities - The demand for ASICs from companies like Google, Meta, and AWS is expected to drive an increase in optical module demand, with anticipated shipments of 1.6T optical modules exceeding 10 million units in 2026 [8]. - The report predicts that the optical communication industry will continue to thrive in the AI era, with leading firms benefiting from technological innovations [8]. Edge AI Opportunities - Meta's recent announcements regarding AI smart glasses and OpenAI's plans for AI hardware indicate a growing market for edge AI devices [9]. - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies involved in edge storage chips and hardware collaborations within the Apple supply chain [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Cambricon (688256), SMIC (0981.HK), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) among others in the domestic computing power sector [12]. - It also suggests investment in companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) and Baiwei Storage (688525) in the domestic storage sector, as well as various overseas CSP/ASIC supply chain companies [12].

RT Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal)ELON FLEXES AS INTERNET MELTS: “𝕏 STILL WORKS”As AWS choked and apps across the web faceplanted, one platform kept breathing: 𝕏.𝕏 stayed online while giants like Snapchat, Roblox, and Canva collapsed.No AWS dependency, no excuses - just uptime, while the rest of the internet played dead.Say what you want about Elon, but when the cloud caught fire, 𝕏 didn’t blink. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The AI industry is experiencing unprecedented acceleration, with a focus on compute architectures, interconnect technologies, and memory bottlenecks, primarily driven by key companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, and OpenAI [4][16][39] - The concept of the "AI perpetual motion cycle" is introduced, where AI chips drive compute demand, which in turn stimulates infrastructure investment, further expanding AI chip applications [4][16] Key Companies and Technologies - **NVIDIA**: Significant investments have popularized the AI perpetual motion cycle, with a shift in strategy from Scale Up and Scale Out to Scale Across, promoting Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) [4][10] - **TSMC**: Central to the entire AI infrastructure, TSMC's advanced process and packaging capabilities support the entire stack from design to system integration [6][8][17] - **OpenAI**: Transitioning from reliance on NVIDIA to developing custom AI ASICs in collaboration with Broadcom, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the supply chain [60][62] Memory and Bandwidth Challenges - The widening "memory wall" is a critical focus, as GPU performance is advancing faster than High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), leading to urgent needs for new memory architectures [12][18][121] - Marvell Technology is proposing solutions for memory architectures and optical interconnects to address these bottlenecks [12] - HBM is evolving beyond just memory technology to a deeply integrated system involving logic, memory, and packaging [13][58] Technological Advancements - The industry is moving towards a focus on "System Bandwidth Engineering," where electrical design at the packaging level is crucial for sustaining future performance scaling [91] - CXL (Compute Express Link) is enabling resource pooling and near-memory compute, which is essential for addressing memory allocation challenges [25][126] - Companies like Ayar Labs and Lightmatter are innovating in silicon photonics to achieve high bandwidth and low latency, reshaping memory systems [26] Strategic Implications - The year 2026 is identified as a critical inflection point for the AI industry, with expected breakthroughs in performance and systemic transformations across technology stacks and capital markets [18][39][55] - The shift from NVIDIA-centric control to a more distributed approach among cloud service providers (CSPs) is reshaping the HBM supply chain, with companies developing their own ASICs [23][57] - Geopolitical implications arise as U.S. companies strengthen ties with Korean memory suppliers, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains [65] Future Outlook - By 2026, significant changes in pricing for electricity, water resources, and advanced packaging capacity are anticipated, with winners being those who can leverage bandwidth engineering for productivity [28][50] - The AI chip market is transitioning from a GPU-driven economy to a multi-chip, multi-architecture landscape, with emerging pricing power centers in Samsung and SK hynix [69][70] - The integration of HBM with advanced packaging technologies will be crucial for future AI architectures, with TSMC playing a pivotal role in this evolution [92][96] Conclusion - The AI industry is on the brink of a major transformation, driven by technological advancements, strategic shifts in supply chains, and the urgent need to address memory and bandwidth challenges. The developments leading up to 2026 will redefine the competitive landscape and the value chain within the AI ecosystem [39][70][71]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is planning to relocate the manufacturing of its Surface devices and data center servers out of China, with a target to complete this transition by 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Microsoft’s Manufacturing Shift - Microsoft is requesting multiple suppliers to assist in the preparation for relocating the production of Surface devices, data center servers, and components out of China [1]. - A supply chain executive indicated that the scope of this transition is extensive, covering new product launches for laptops and servers, with a goal for all manufacturing to be completed outside of China by 2026 [3]. - For server production, Microsoft has begun moving operations out of China, aiming for at least 80% of the materials in the server bill of materials (BOM) to come from outside China [3]. Group 2: Xbox Production - In addition to Surface devices, Microsoft is also pushing to increase non-China production for Xbox gaming consoles, although there are currently no plans to move all Xbox production out of China [3]. Group 3: AWS and Google’s Strategies - AWS is also adopting a strategy to produce sensitive AI data center servers outside of China, considering reducing procurement from long-term PCB supplier, Shengyi Electronics, despite their established production options outside China [3]. - Google is actively asking suppliers to expand server production capabilities in Thailand, with reports of new facilities being established to double production capacity [4]. - Google aims to create an ecosystem where suppliers can handle all aspects from components to assembly in Thailand, providing alternatives to Chinese manufacturing [4].

Core Insights - Apple has secured a five-year media rights deal with Formula 1, paying approximately $140 million annually, starting in 2026, which marks a significant shift from the previous rights holder, Disney's ESPN [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of the Deal - The transition to Apple signifies a major change in how Formula 1 will be broadcast in the US, with expectations of innovation and enhanced viewer engagement [2][4]. - The deal is anticipated to attract a larger audience, especially given the recent surge in interest from the success of the "Drive to Survive" series and the Formula 1 movie, which have collectively brought in over 50 million fans in the US [5][6]. Group 2: Growth Potential - There is a strong belief that Formula 1 has significant growth potential in the US market, with the new deal expected to facilitate greater fan engagement and viewership [5][8]. - The previous deal with ESPN was valued at around $85 million per year, indicating that the new agreement represents a substantial increase in revenue for Formula 1 [6]. Group 3: Brand and Sponsorship Opportunities - The deal is seen as an opportunity for brands, particularly American companies, to gain exposure and enhance their image through association with Formula 1, which is increasingly appealing to a younger and more diverse demographic [9][14]. - Cadillac, as a new team entering the grid, is experiencing heightened interest from sponsors, reflecting the growing corporate engagement in the sport [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Considerations - Establishing a Formula 1 team is a significant financial undertaking, estimated to exceed one billion dollars, encompassing various operational and real estate costs [15][16].