来源：明河投资 作者：胡一帆 本文写作时间：2025年10月8日 马拉松资本是一家伦敦的资产管理公司，他们在行业内极度低调，不做任何营销，客户全部是主动找上 门的机构投资者，十几个人的投资团队管理超过500亿美金的资产，在业内有极高的品牌认可度。 他们写过一本书叫《资本周期》（也有翻译成《资本回报》）非常有名。书中提及，马拉松资管喜欢两 种类型的公司——"持续优势"（增长型）和"困境反转"（价值型）。马拉松资本使用一个被称为"回报 衰减率"的框架，寻找两类投资对象，如下图所示： 投资对象A：一家能持续获得高于市场预期回报的公司（图上部虚线），即公司维持回报高于市场平均 水平的时间更长。 市场对A的"错误定价"源于：由于A短期遇到了问题（也可能是犯了某些战略上的错误），导致业绩下 滑，市场认为A的辉煌时代已经过去，由此给予较低估值。 也就是说，当一个具备好的商业模式、企业文化的企业，遇到一个未来能大概率能解决的问题时，市场 定价的短视导致这类公司往往会出现好的买入机会。 典型的案例就是2014-2016年期间的苹果，2011年乔布斯去世后，库克上任，苹果销量下滑，而安卓手 机阵营增长迅猛（华为、OPPO、VIV ...

Core Insights - The African smartphone market is projected to see a significant year-on-year increase of 24% in shipments by Q3 2025, reaching 22.8 million units, driven by enhanced market demand, currency stability, increased financing usage, and improved retail activities [1] - Chinese smartphone manufacturers continue to dominate the African market, with Transsion leading with a shipment of 11.6 million units and a market share of 51% in Q3, followed by Xiaomi, OPPO, and Honor, collectively holding 72% of the market share [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Dynamics - The growth of the African smartphone market in Q3 2023 outpaced the global smartphone market's moderate recovery, with South Africa leading the growth at 31% due to the acceleration of prepaid models in the low and mid-range segments [1] - The report highlights that the African smartphone market is supported by ongoing economic growth, increasing internet penetration, and favorable government policies promoting technological innovation and the internet industry [2] Group 2: Company Strategies and Opportunities - Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term strategy in Africa, planning to enter over 15 new markets and has opened its first self-operated flagship store in Morocco, focusing on models priced below $150 [2] - OPPO is consolidating its market position in North Africa with Egypt as a core hub, while Honor is maintaining steady growth in South Africa through high-cost-performance models like the Honor 200 Lite [2] - Chinese smartphone manufacturers face multiple opportunities in Africa, including deepening the cost-effective market, leveraging supply chain integration, and creating differentiated competitive advantages through targeted functional development [3]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月28日，昀冢科技(688260.SH)发布异动公告，公司主要从事消费电子及电子陶瓷、汽 车电子等领域产品的研发、设计、生产制造和销售。其中，消费电子业务为公司主营业务，公司消费电 子产品主要应用在智能手机摄像头中的音圈马达VCM和摄像头模组CCM中，终端应用于华为、小米、 OPPO、VIVO、荣耀等主流品牌智能手机，目前公司的主营业务未发生变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Mate80 series from a certain company has adopted a "quantity increase and price decrease" strategy, defying the trend of rising component prices in the smartphone industry, which has left competitors at a disadvantage [1][3][4]. Pricing Strategy - The Mate80 series has seen a price reduction of 800 yuan for the standard version, bringing it down to 4699 yuan, while the Pro and ProMax versions have decreased by 500 yuan [1]. - With additional e-commerce platform subsidies, the actual price drop could reach up to 1000 yuan [2]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the Android market were preparing for price increases due to rising costs of key components, such as a 30% increase in Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 chip prices and a 200% increase in DRAM memory prices over six months [2][6]. - The price reduction by the certain company has rendered similar models from competitors nearly incomparable, causing panic among rival brands [3][4]. Supply Chain Advantages - The Mate80 series boasts over 90% of its components sourced from domestic suppliers, which has allowed the company to maintain lower costs compared to competitors reliant on international supply chains [5][7]. - The self-developed Kirin 9030 chip significantly reduces external procurement costs, with internal costs potentially being half of the approximately 200 USD that competitors pay for flagship chips [5]. Market Impact - The goal for the Mate80 series is to achieve sales of over 20 million units, which would help expand the HarmonyOS ecosystem to 50 million devices, attracting more developers and enhancing the product ecosystem [5]. - The success of the Mate80 series could lead to market share loss for competitors who are heavily dependent on international supply chains [5][9]. Industry Trends - The smartphone market is currently in a phase of stock competition, with rising procurement costs leading to higher retail prices, which could hinder sales across the board [6][9]. - The certain company's ability to lower prices amidst rising costs indicates a shift in the industry, potentially forcing competitors to source components domestically to remain competitive [10][11]. Investment Opportunities - The situation presents significant investment opportunities in the domestic storage industry, which is likely to see growth due to increased demand from the certain company's success [12]. - Key players in the domestic storage supply chain, including equipment manufacturers and chip producers, are expected to benefit from this trend [12][13][14]. Conclusion - The Mate80's reverse pricing strategy signifies a shift towards "domestic substitution and ecological independence" in China's tech industry, presenting potential growth for investors focused on companies with strong technological barriers and solid performance [15].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of consumption in China's economic growth, particularly in the context of optimizing economic structure and transforming development momentum [2][19] - The 2024 Forbes China Central Business District (CBD) Consumption Competitiveness Evaluation highlights how cities are evolving under the dual trends of "internationalization + localization" and "digitalization + experiential consumption" [2][3] Evaluation Framework - The evaluation employs a multi-dimensional assessment system with nearly 40 comprehensive indicators, integrating quantitative data and qualitative information [4] - Key evaluation dimensions include consumption market prosperity, payment convenience, international consumption attractiveness, resource aggregation, and policy leadership, each contributing 20% to the overall score [5] Selected CBDs - The evaluation identified ten representative CBDs, maintaining a consistent list from the previous year while introducing new focus areas such as "consumption resources" and "consumption policies" [17] - The top three CBDs are Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with Beijing leading due to its international financial focus [17] Consumption Market Performance - China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 487,895 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 3.5% year-on-year, with Shanghai and Chongqing leading in sales figures [19] - Notably, Chongqing surpassed Shanghai in retail sales in the first half of 2025, temporarily positioning itself as China's "consumption capital" [19] Internationalization as a Key Indicator - Internationalization is a crucial metric for assessing CBD capabilities and global positioning, with Beijing and Shanghai excelling due to their established international business ecosystems [20][21] - Initiatives like tax refund services and mobile payment innovations are aimed at enhancing the international consumer experience in these cities [21] Policy and Scene Integration - CBDs are leveraging policy incentives and innovative business models to drive consumption upgrades, with cities like Guangzhou and Chongqing implementing targeted strategies to enhance their consumption landscapes [22] - The transformation of CBDs from traditional business hubs to integrated consumption scenes reflects a broader trend of merging commerce, culture, tourism, and digital services [22] Regional Collaboration and Functional Differentiation - The evaluation highlights the emergence of multiple CBDs within the same city, each focusing on distinct functions, thereby enhancing overall economic resilience and functionality [23] - This "multi-core" development model is particularly evident in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, where CBDs collaborate through transportation, industry, and policy integration [23]

经济观察网 11 月 26 日下午，香港大埔宏福苑发生五级火灾，灾情严峻，牵动着全国人民的心。 OPPO 公司宣布捐赠 1000 万港元，用于支持受灾居民的医疗救助、紧急安置、过渡期生活援助等工 作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sony has officially launched its highly anticipated 200-megapixel mobile camera sensor, LYT-901, targeting the next generation of flagship smartphone photography [1][4]. Group 1: Sensor Specifications - The LYT-901 sensor features a large 1/1.12-inch imaging surface, providing a resolution that is four times higher than typical sensors of similar size [1][4]. - It utilizes 0.7μm native pixels, which are common in other 200-megapixel sensors, and employs a Quad Quad Bayer Coding for improved signal processing [2][4]. - The sensor supports various output modes, allowing for high-quality images at 50 million pixels (2x2 binning) or 12.5 million pixels (4x4 binning) [2][3]. Group 2: Performance Enhancements - To manage the large data output from the 200-megapixel sensor, Sony has integrated artificial intelligence into the sensor's internal circuitry, enhancing processing efficiency [3][6]. - The LYT-901 employs a hybrid frame HDR design, achieving a dynamic range exceeding 100dB, which helps prevent highlight clipping and reduces motion artifacts [3][7]. - The sensor supports up to 4x high-quality zoom through its built-in zoom technology, allowing for effective cropping and data transmission [4][6]. Group 3: Video Capabilities - The LYT-901 can record 4K video at 30fps while utilizing 4x hardware zoom, making it ideal for content creators [4][6]. - The sensor's advanced HDR technologies, including DCG-HDR and Fine12bit ADC, enhance dynamic range and color depth across the entire zoom range [6][8]. Group 4: Market Impact - Upcoming flagship smartphones, such as the OPPO Find X9 Ultra and Vivo X300 Ultra, are expected to be among the first to feature the LYT-901 sensor [4].

Core Insights - The African smartphone market is experiencing a significant rebound, with Q3 2025 shipments expected to surge by 24% year-on-year, reaching 22.8 million units, following five consecutive quarters of decline [1][6] - Key factors driving this growth include increased market demand, currency stability, enhanced financing usage, and improved retail activities [1] - North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa are witnessing double-digit growth in smartphone shipments, with Nigeria and Egypt each accounting for 14% of regional shipments, but with differing recovery dynamics [1][2] Market Performance - Nigeria's smartphone shipments are projected to soar by 29% year-on-year, attributed to the stabilization of the Naira and the introduction of affordable models under $150, stimulating retail upgrade demand [1] - Egypt's market is expected to grow by 19%, driven by increased demand for mid-range devices and promotional bundling strategies [1] - South Africa leads the growth with a 31% increase, benefiting from the rise of prepaid models and enhanced retail promotions [2] Product Segmentation - Smartphones priced below $100 are expected to see a remarkable 57% increase, while those above $500 are projected to grow by 52% [4] - Transsion is a key player in the entry-level market, with a 25% year-on-year increase in shipments, supported by strong demand in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa [4] - Samsung dominates the high-end market, with strong demand for Galaxy S24 and S24 FE 5G models in South Africa, Senegal, and Algeria [4] Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term strategy in Africa, planning to enter over 15 new markets and has opened its first flagship store in Morocco [4] - OPPO is consolidating its market position in North Africa, focusing on Egypt, while Honor is maintaining steady growth in South Africa through competitive models like Honor 200 Lite [4] Future Outlook - Despite the current growth, the African smartphone market is expected to decline by 6% in 2026 due to rising supply-side pressures, including increased BOM costs and currency depreciation [6] - The low-end 4G market, which constitutes a significant portion of demand, will be particularly affected, leading to higher average selling prices and new payment challenges for consumers [6]

Core Insights - Omdia's latest research indicates that smartphone shipments in Africa will surge by 24% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 22.8 million units, marking a rebound after five consecutive quarters of slowdown, driven by increased market demand, currency stability, enhanced financing usage, and improved retail activities [1] Group 1: Regional Performance - North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa experienced double-digit growth in smartphone shipments, with Nigeria and Egypt each accounting for 14% of regional shipments; Nigeria's market surged by 29% due to stable naira exchange rates and an updated portfolio of models priced below $150, while Egypt saw a 19% increase [1] - South Africa led with a 31% growth, benefiting from the acceleration of prepaid models in the low and mid-range markets, new model launches, and increased retail promotions [2] - Kenya's market grew by 17%, driven by the rising penetration of installment payment plans, which have become a significant driver of smartphone sales [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shipment of smartphones priced below $100 increased by 57%, the fastest growth rate in three quarters, while models above $500 grew by 52%; the entry-level market's rapid growth was primarily driven by Transsion, which saw a 25% year-on-year increase in shipments supported by strong demand in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa [5] - Major brands like Samsung dominated the high-end market with strong demand for Galaxy S24 and S24 FE 5G in South Africa, Senegal, and Algeria, although overall market growth remained moderate at 5% due to consumer preference for cost-effective models [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term strategy in Africa, planning to enter over 15 new markets in the coming months and has opened its first self-operated flagship store in Morocco; its strong sales in the sub-$150 segment account for half of its shipments [6] - OPPO is consolidating its market position in North Africa with a focus on Egypt, while Honor is maintaining steady growth in South Africa through high-cost-performance models like Honor 200 Lite [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Omdia forecasts a 6% decline in the African smartphone market by 2026 due to rising supply-side pressures, including increased BOM costs, tight memory supply, and ongoing currency weakness, which will particularly impact the low-end 4G market that constitutes the majority of demand in Africa [8] - These pressures are expected to raise average selling prices, especially in the $80 to $150 range, presenting new payment challenges for consumers; manufacturers will need to strengthen financing partnerships, optimize channel inventory, and localize more effectively to navigate this environment [8]

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research forecasts a 3.3% year-on-year growth in global smartphone shipments by 2025, with Apple expected to reclaim the top position in market share at 19.4%, surpassing Samsung's 18.7% [5][6][9] - The strong performance of Apple's iPhone 17 series is anticipated to drive a 10% increase in iPhone shipments in 2025, with significant growth expected in key markets like China and the US [5][6][7] - The Chinese smartphone market is expected to see a divergence in performance among its top brands due to a sluggish domestic market and increased competition [5][10] Apple Insights - Apple's iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series [6][7] - The upcoming iPhone 17e and the first foldable iPhone are expected to further enhance Apple's market position, with a focus on high-end consumer demand in emerging markets [8] - The company benefits from a favorable macro environment, including lower-than-expected tariff impacts and a recovery in consumer confidence in key markets [7][8] Samsung Insights - Samsung is projected to achieve a 4.6% year-on-year growth in shipments by 2025, but will still lose its long-held top position in the global market [5][9] - The A series is expected to strengthen Samsung's growth in emerging markets, particularly in regions like India and Southeast Asia [9] - Despite a stable performance in mature markets, Samsung faces intense competition from Chinese brands in the mid-to-low-end market segments [9] Chinese Brands Insights - Major Chinese smartphone brands are increasingly relying on overseas markets for growth, with a clearer path in regions like India and Southeast Asia [10] - The transition to higher price segments and investment in premium devices are strategies to enhance profitability and reduce dependence on low-end markets [10] - Supply chain uncertainties, particularly in memory supply, pose challenges for growth, with a cautious outlook for 2026 where the top four brands are expected to see only a 1.7% growth rate [10]