Core Viewpoint - The software sector has experienced a significant selloff, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF declining over 20% due to concerns about AI disrupting traditional software economics. However, this may have led to an overreaction in market sentiment, creating attractive investment opportunities in premium software stocks [2][3][22]. Industry Overview - Software stocks have historically been viewed as attractive investments due to their asset-light models, high margins, and recurring revenue. However, excessive valuation premiums have made the sector cautious despite the quality of the businesses. Recent market dynamics have shifted, leading to more reasonable valuations [4][22]. - The current market sentiment appears to be mispricing the durability of strong software platforms, creating compelling opportunities for long-term investors [3][22]. Company Summaries AppLovin - AppLovin shares surged after the withdrawal of money laundering allegations, which had previously pressured the stock. The stock had fallen approximately 50% from its record highs, but the recent recovery may indicate the start of a broader upward trend [6][7]. - The company has shown significant growth, with sales projected to increase by 18.2% this year and 38.3% next year, while earnings are expected to rise by 106% this year and 62.5% next year. The stock trades at about 25x forward earnings, which is reasonable given its growth trajectory [8]. Salesforce - Salesforce has been affected by the AI disruption narrative, despite its strong market position and ongoing innovation. The stock is currently trading at approximately 14.7x forward earnings, the lowest since its IPO, with revenue expected to grow by 9.5% this year and 10.9% next year [9][10]. - Earnings are projected to rise by 15.3% this year and 10.5% next year, indicating solid growth potential despite the current valuation [11]. Palantir Technologies - Palantir has established itself as a leading software company, supported by long-duration government contracts and differentiated data platforms. The stock has corrected nearly 40% recently, but still trades at a premium of about 100x forward earnings, backed by strong growth expectations [12][13]. - Revenue is projected to grow by 61.4% this year and 40.8% next year, with earnings expected to surge by 78.7% this year and 42.2% next year. The company carries a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), reflecting confidence in its earnings trajectory [14]. ServiceNow - ServiceNow is recognized as a high-quality enterprise software franchise, now trading at one of its most attractive valuations in history at approximately 24.5x forward earnings. Revenue is expected to grow by 20.1% this year and 18.2% next year [15][17]. - The company serves a significant portion of large enterprises, with earnings projected to expand around 24% annually over the next three to five years, making it a compelling option for long-term investors [16][17]. Robinhood Markets - Robinhood has evolved into a multi-product financial platform, with shares rebounding as investors return to former growth leaders. The stock trades at approximately 33.6x forward earnings, below its historical median of 50.4x [18][20]. - Revenue is expected to grow by 53% this year and 21.8% next year, while earnings are forecasted to surge by 86% this year and 21.2% next year, indicating strong growth potential [20].

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41% to 4,123.09 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.98% to 3,332.77 points, with a total trading volume of approximately 22.7 billion yuan[17] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.76% to 27,027.16 points, with major tech stocks rebounding, and total market turnover around 255.1 billion HKD[13] - European markets saw collective gains, with the Euro Stoxx 600 index up 0.7% and the DAX index rising 1.19% to 25,014.87 points, supported by positive economic data[11] Economic Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for Q1 highlights two key points: the impact of the longest Spring Festival holiday on consumption and policy direction from local two sessions[6] - Consumer recovery is characterized by a shift towards service alternatives, while commodity prices remain constrained by household balance sheet recovery[6] - The focus of policy has shifted from traditional infrastructure expansion to granular competition in sectors like low-altitude economy and computing power[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rose for two consecutive days, with NYMEX crude oil up 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[28] - The dollar index fell by 0.8%, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which rose 1.3% to $5,050.9 per ounce[28] - The Japanese yen initially fell but later gained 0.9% against the dollar, closing at 155.88[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield at 4.20%, down 0.4 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 4.86%[31] - Asian credit markets showed a strong sentiment with overall spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Lunar New Year[31] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.9% and the S&P 500 rising 0.5%[11] - The AI sector showed a 40% quarter-over-quarter growth in annual recurring revenue, indicating a positive trend despite initial skepticism[24] - The white liquor sector is expected to perform better than market expectations during the Spring Festival, driven by strong consumer demand[20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a long position on Main Street and a short position on Wall Street until there is a policy pivot to address affordability, as reflected in the performance of Bro Billionaires compared to small caps [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights peak positioning, peak liquidity, and peak inequality, suggesting a cautious outlook on high-flying assets like big tech and cryptocurrencies, while favoring small-cap and emerging market investments [1][2][16]. - A significant loss in the crypto market, amounting to $2 trillion, is noted, which represents 10% of US consumer spending, indicating a shift in Wall Street's focus from AI spenders to beneficiaries in manufacturing and services [3][10]. - The report anticipates key price levels for frothy assets to hold, with specific targets for big tech (XLK at $133), bitcoin (at $58,000), and gold (at $4,550 per ounce), contingent on the US dollar not surging [2][15]. Summary by Sections Market Flows - Weekly flows show $87.2 billion to cash, $34.6 billion to stocks, and $23.0 billion to bonds, with notable outflows from gold and crypto [10][46]. - Cumulative inflows for the decade to date are reported as $5.0 trillion to cash, $3.0 trillion to stocks, and $2.4 trillion to bonds, with gold and crypto receiving $128 billion and $98 billion respectively [12][34]. Positioning and Sentiment - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 9.6, indicating a contrarian "sell signal" for risk assets, with strong inflows to tech and high-yield bond funds, while cash levels remain low [13][14]. - Positioning metrics suggest that a reversal in the Bull & Bear Indicator sell signal could occur with increased cash levels and significant outflows from stocks [14]. Sector Performance - The report notes inflows into tech ($6.0 billion), energy ($4.0 billion), and materials ($0.7 billion), while outflows were observed in consumer, utilities, healthcare, and real estate sectors [47]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks as favorable investments in the lead-up to the US midterms, driven by political interventions aimed at reducing costs in energy, healthcare, and housing [16][24].

09 Feb 2026 18:23:25 ET │ 12 pages Thematic Equity Strategy Searching for Software Opportunities after AI De-Risking CITI'S TAKE This report serves as an addendum to our latest US Equity Strategy report on the software selloff. Herein, we screen for fundamental opportunities within corrected software names where upward revisions have persisted, providing near-term fundamental support, even though markets have implicitly taken down terminal multiples below current valuations, better recognizing longer-run bu ...

I am working on something $PLTR. https://t.co/PPETfScTkE ...

隔夜美国软件股集体反弹，华尔街分析师集中发声驳斥人工智能将颠覆软件行业的"末日论"，称市场过度悲观。甲骨文等龙头股大幅反弹，科技巨头加码资 本支出的承诺也提振了投资者信心。 软件板块整体走强，iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF周一上涨3%，此前该ETF已较高点暴跌约28%，市场担忧AI将接管软件传统职能并颠覆其收 入模式。Wedbush Securities分析师Dan Ives称近期软件股"末日"叙事"极度夸张"，并将Salesforce和ServiceNow加入该机构AI 30榜单。 甲骨文股价一度飙升12%，创9月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，收涨近10%。D.A. Davidson分析师Gil Luria将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并直言"软件并未死 亡"，称企业将继续为甲骨文产品付费，"不会被随意编码替代"。 此外，亚马逊承诺今年在数据中心、芯片等设备上投入2000亿美元，这一表态帮助缓解了市场对AI威胁的担忧。部分投资者押注，亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta 和微软等公司合计约6500亿美元的AI工具支出，至少有一部分将流向软件企业。 华尔街集中反击"末 ...

Palantir (PLTR) recently posted fourth-quarter 2025 results that trounced analyst estimates. Revenue grew 70% to $1.41 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at $0.25 against expectations of $0.23. Full-year revenue came in at $4.48 billion, with management expecting 2026 revenue at $7.19 billion, up 61% year-over-year (YOY). That's almost $1 billion more than what the consensus penciled in earlier. As one would expect, PLTR stock surged on the report, but this didn't last for long. Shares are down 3% over ...

Dan Ives is here, star analyst of Wedbush. Um, I mentioned at the top of the program that you moved a couple of really beaten down names into your your AI20, that being Salesforce and and Service Now. Um, what do you make of what Jensen said amidst all of this skepticism about that space.>> I think the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution will be in software. Now, look, right now it's data center buildout, GPUs. I mean, you're still in the early days of this what what's going to be a 10-year buildout, but ...

Hello and welcome to market domination overtime stocks closing the day higher here. Our very own Jared Lickery has the latest moves. >> Thank you.We got another record in the Dow second day above 50,000 and these 18 points, a whopping 18 points is good for another record close. So, we move on to the Nasdaq Composite up uh just short of 1% or 207 points there. And the S&P 500 up about half a percent.The equal weighted S&P 500, not up a lot, but that's good enough for a record high right there. And I'm going ...

Core Viewpoint - Software stocks have experienced significant selloffs due to investor concerns about AI disrupting traditional software economics, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) falling over 20% recently. However, expectations may have shifted too quickly, and while AI will reshape the software landscape, it is unlikely to make entire categories obsolete [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently pricing in a level of disruption that does not align with the durability of the strongest software platforms, creating compelling investment opportunities among premium software names [2]. - For much of the past decade, software companies enjoyed substantial valuation premiums due to their asset-light models, high margins, and recurring revenue, but many of these premiums became excessive, leading to caution in the sector [3]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Several strong software franchises, including AppLovin, Palantir Technologies, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Robinhood Markets, are trading near cyclical lows despite maintaining competitive positions, indicating attractive risk-reward profiles [4]. - AppLovin shares surged after the withdrawal of money laundering allegations, recovering from a 50% drop from record highs, and the company is expected to see sales growth of 18.2% this year and 38.3% next year, with earnings projected to increase by 106% [6][8]. - Salesforce, trading at approximately 14.7x forward earnings, is experiencing a historical discount despite expected revenue growth of 9.5% this year and 10.9% next year, alongside earnings growth of 15.3% this year [12][13]. - Palantir Technologies has seen its shares correct nearly 40% recently, yet it is projected to achieve revenue growth of 61.4% this year and 40.8% next year, with earnings expected to surge by 78.7% [15][17]. - ServiceNow is trading at an all-time low multiple of approximately 24.5x forward earnings, with revenue expected to grow 20.1% this year and 18.2% next year, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [19][21]. - Robinhood Markets has evolved into a multi-product financial platform, with shares trading at approximately 33.6x forward earnings, below its historical median, and is expected to see revenue growth of 53% this year [23][26]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The recent software correction presents an attractive entry point for high-quality growth stocks, as the market may be overstating the speed and severity of disruption from AI, particularly for established industry leaders [27][28]. - Valuations for several premier software franchises have reset to levels rarely seen over the past decade, improving the risk-reward profile for long-term investors [28].