中日之间的商业活动开始受到影响。日本企业的中国法人高管表示，"受此次问题影响，与政府系企业 的商业谈判无法进行"。另一家日本企业高管表示，已决定在中国的社交网络上减少对自己产品的宣 传…… 围绕日本首相高市早苗关于"台湾有事"的发言和中国驻大阪总领事薛剑的发言，中日之间商业往来的停 滞令人担忧。由于中国政府提醒中国公民避免赴日，中国国有大型航空公司11月15日宣布涉日机票可免 费退改。旅游业界出现了担心访日游客减少的声音。 中国国际航空、中国南方航空、中国东方航空等三家航空公司同时发布通知，涉日机票可免费退改。对 象是以东京和大阪等日本为出发和目的地的航班，期间为11月15日至12月31日。此外，四川航空和海南 航空等也发出了类似通知。 在中国，中日之间的商业活动开始受到影响。日本企业的中国法人高管表示，"受此次问题影响，与政 府系企业的商业谈判无法进行"。另一家日本企业高管表示，已决定在中国的社交网络上减少对自己产 品的宣传。 全日空（ANA）和日本航空（JAL）表示，截至11月15日没有出现取消预订的情况。日本航空旗下的春 秋航空日本(Spring Japan)也表示："没有大的变化"。酒店和百货商店受到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a continuous digestion of existing supply, with aircraft utilization rates exceeding 2019 levels during peak season, indicating a potential slowdown in supply growth in the future. The significant increase in international routes and limited domestic capacity growth suggest an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely to improve ticket prices. Favorable oil prices and exchange rates are expected to lead to a "not-so-slow" trend in Q4, with a significant reduction in losses anticipated for the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and a release of profit elasticity in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Flight and Passenger Volume - Flight and passenger volume growth: In Q3 2025, overall, domestic, international, and regional flight volumes increased by 3%/2%/12%/7% year-on-year, while overall, domestic, international, and regional passenger volumes grew by 3.90%/2.84%/15.31%/-2.37% year-on-year [1]. - Airlines' capacity deployment: Except for Juneyao Airlines, overall capacity investment increased, focusing on international routes. In Q3 2025, ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines showed year-on-year growth of 1.9%/5.7%/6.0%/4.4%/14.1%/-1.4% [2]. - Passenger turnover growth outpaced available seat kilometers growth, with load factors remaining high. In Q3 2025, passenger turnover for major airlines increased by 3.6%/6.2%/8.9%/4.2%/14.0%/-0.4% year-on-year, with industry load factors for July to September averaging 84.5%/87.5%/86.3%, up 0.5/0.6/2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue growth driven by capacity increase and passenger volume: In Q3 2025, total operating revenue for major airlines grew by 0.9%/3.0%/3.1%/1.8%/6.0%/-1.9% year-on-year [3]. - Decrease in oil prices alleviated fuel costs, while capacity investment diluted fixed costs, although variable costs increased. In Q3 2025, operating costs for major airlines increased by 0.07%/1.63%/1.51%/-1.43%/8.74%/-0.46% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue per available seat kilometer decreased, but the decline in costs was generally greater than the decline in revenue. In Q3 2025, revenue per available seat kilometer for major airlines decreased by 1.03%/2.55%/2.72%/2.41%/7.09%/0.47%/5.28%, while costs decreased by 1.84%/3.86%/4.26%/5.54%/4.70%/8.21% [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Market Outlook - Favorable oil prices and exchange rates positively impacted net profits. In Q3 2025, the average price of aviation kerosene was 5593 RMB/ton, down 11.05% year-on-year, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.74%, affecting net profits of major airlines [4]. - Slightly better-than-expected net profits for China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines. In Q3 2025, net profits for major airlines were 36.76/38.40/35.34/27.88/11.67/5.84/3.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.31%/+20.26%/34.37%/-0.75%/-6.17%/-25.29%/+31.60% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment themes include performance elasticity from ticket price increases, recommending major airlines with larger fleets and strong cyclical attributes, as well as Hainan Airlines benefiting from policy advantages and Juneyao Airlines with optimal route networks among private carriers [5]. - Emphasis on the certainty of operational performance, recommending airlines with stable subsidies like China Express Airlines and those with clear cost advantages and neutral exchange rate exposure like Spring Airlines [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Views - The transportation sector has shown a cumulative increase of 1.83% from November 10 to November 15, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 1.08% [14][15]. - The recovery rates for domestic and international passenger traffic in major airlines and airports have significantly improved compared to 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in the aviation sector [24][32]. - The shipping and logistics sectors are experiencing mixed performance, with container shipping indices showing a decline year-on-year, while oil and product tanker indices have increased significantly [36][47]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - The transportation industry ranked 13th among 31 sectors with a cumulative increase of 1.83% during the week [14]. - Sub-sectors such as ports (+7.44%) and airports (+5.28%) performed particularly well, while cross-border logistics (-1.37%) and road freight (-0.68%) faced declines [15][23]. Aviation and Airports - Major airlines in China have seen recovery rates for domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) in September 2025 reach as high as 176.49% compared to the same month in 2019 [24]. - Key airports like Baiyun, Shanghai, and Capital have also shown strong recovery in passenger throughput, with rates of 125.22% and 115.87% for international traffic [32]. Shipping and Ports - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 35.55% year-on-year, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has shown a 23.97% decline [36]. - The CCFI for the East America route reported a decrease of 18.31% year-on-year, while the Mediterranean route saw a decline of 28.56% [36]. Road and Rail - Rail passenger turnover increased by 0.4% year-on-year, while freight volume rose by 4.24% [61]. - Road passenger traffic decreased by 3.82%, but freight volume increased by 5.20% [67]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 127.37 billion yuan in September 2025, marking a 7.20% increase year-on-year [10]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards smaller packages driven by e-commerce, with a notable increase in business volume [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on airlines such as China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and logistics companies like Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) for potential investment opportunities [9][10].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market [1] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering capacity, but supply chain challenges continue to hinder aircraft supply. As of October 2025, Boeing delivered 493 aircraft and Airbus delivered 585 aircraft this year, with backlogged orders remaining at historically high levels [2][5][6] - Global aviation market demand growth has slowed down, with all regions experiencing a deceleration. The Middle East and Africa saw year-on-year increases of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, while North America experienced a slight decline of 0.1%. The Asia-Pacific region's international passenger volume grew by 7.4% year-on-year [2][11][16] - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing industry is expected to benefit from the tight supply-demand situation, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which presents significant growth potential for Chinese aircraft leasing companies [2][40] Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's average monthly delivery has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers are still far from previous high levels [5] - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at a historical high, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 836 and 722 aircraft, respectively, this year [6] 2. Civil Aviation Passenger Demand Update - Global aviation passenger volume continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed. In September 2025, global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the global load factor was 83.4%, slightly lower than the previous year [11][16] - Domestic aviation RPK in September grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with Brazil showing a remarkable increase of 12.1% [21][20] 3. Aircraft Leasing Company Dynamics - Chinese aircraft leasing companies are currently valued relatively low compared to global leaders like AerCap, and they possess higher order elasticity, making them worthy of attention [2][38] - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing had the highest number of owned aircraft at 628, while China Aircraft Leasing had the least at 151 [44]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese retail stocks have faced significant declines due to a warning from China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism advising Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, coupled with negative economic data indicating a contraction in Japan's GDP [1][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Impact - The Japanese stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 0.7% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 0.8% [3]. - Notable retail and tourism-related stocks saw substantial drops, including Shiseido, which fell over 11%, and Mitsukoshi Isetan, which plummeted more than 12% [3][4]. - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, saw its stock price decrease by nearly 7% [4]. Group 2: Economic Data - Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth since the first quarter of 2024 [6][7]. - The GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with exports of goods and services falling by 1.2% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [7]. - Domestic consumption, which constitutes over half of Japan's economy, showed only a slight increase of 0.1% in the same period, indicating weak internal demand [7]. Group 3: Tourism and Economic Forecast - The decline in Chinese tourists, who account for approximately 25% of foreign visitors to Japan, is expected to significantly impact the tourism sector [5]. - Analysts estimate that a substantial drop in Chinese visitors could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.36%, leading to an economic loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen (about 101.16 billion RMB) [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing economic pressures [7]. Group 4: Government Response - The Japanese government is considering a stimulus plan worth approximately 17 trillion yen (around 110 billion USD) to counteract economic downturns [8].

Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index opened with a significant drop, falling over 1% and breaching the 50,000 points mark before narrowing its losses by around 9:50 AM [1] - Several consumer stocks in Japan experienced substantial declines, with FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES down over 14%, Japanese electronics down over 11%, and Shiseido down over 9% [3] Economic Data - Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The actual GDP for the third quarter decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [3] Diplomatic Tensions - High-ranking Japanese officials made provocative statements regarding Taiwan, suggesting potential military involvement, which has drawn significant criticism from China and the international community [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued travel warnings for its citizens in Japan, citing a rise in crimes against Chinese nationals and a deteriorating security environment [5] Airline Industry Impact - Following the travel warnings, major Chinese airlines announced flexible ticket policies for flights to Japan, allowing free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before November 15 [7][8] - Chinese airlines account for approximately 80% of the flight volume on the China-Japan route, with a significant reduction in weekly flights observed [9] Tourism Statistics - In September 2025, foreign visitors to Japan reached 3.267 million, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with Chinese tourists being the largest group [9] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan increased by 42.7%, making China the largest source of inbound tourism for Japan [9] Trade Relations - China remains Japan's largest trading partner, with a total trade volume of $308.3 billion expected in 2024, including $156.25 billion in imports from China [10] - The deterioration of Japan-China relations is anticipated to have negative repercussions for the Japanese populace, as highlighted by Japanese officials [10]

据新华社，在日本国内舆论和多国专家学者看来，高市错误言行释放极其危险的信号，冲击地区和平稳 定，祸及日本自身。 数据显示，中国是日本最大贸易伙伴、第二大出口对象国和最大进口来源国。2024年中日贸易总额3083 亿美元，其中中国对日进口额1562.5亿美元。 据日本观光厅统计，2024年中国游客在日消费总额位列各国游客之首。 面对经济疲软，是访日游客在支撑了日本经济，为此，日本旅游业在2024年交出了一张亮眼的成绩单， 而中国游客的贡献最大。数据显示，按国家和地区来看，消费最高的是中国游客，合计消费额达到1万 7335亿日元（约合人民币812亿元）。 据央视新闻，日本内阁府17日公布，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，为 六个季度以来首次负增长。 数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）比上一季度下降0.4%。 资料图 （图源：央视新闻） 当前，日本经济面临财政和货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等多重困 境。高市早苗近日发表涉台错误言论罔顾法理和历史事实，一系列言行危害地区稳定、祸及日本自身。 日本政界和舆论批评，高市作为首相把日本拖入"国家危 ...

Core Viewpoint - The airline stocks have collectively opened lower due to a significant decline in flight volumes to Japan following travel advisories from the Chinese government [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 3.47%, trading at HKD 4.45 [1] - Air China (601111) (00753) fell by 2.92%, trading at HKD 6.31 [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) decreased by 2.62%, trading at HKD 5.20 [1] Group 2: Travel Advisory Impact - On November 14, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese consulate in Japan advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan [1] - Following this advisory, several airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, announced free ticket refunds and changes for flights to Japan scheduled before December 31 [1] Group 3: Flight Volume Decline - According to data from Flight Manager, the weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has significantly decreased, with 1,189 flights recorded in the 45th week (November 3-9), representing an 82.9% recovery rate compared to the same period in 2019 [1] - This figure reflects a 14.5% decrease compared to the 40th week [1] - A market department representative from an airline indicated that further reductions in flights to Japan are likely, with capacity being adjusted to other routes [1]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and consulates in Japan issued a serious warning regarding Chinese citizens traveling to Japan on November 14 [1] - Multiple airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Sichuan Airlines, announced special handling measures for tickets related to Japan routes, allowing free refunds and changes for tickets with travel dates before December 31 that meet certain conditions [1] - The weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has significantly decreased, with data showing 1,189 flights in the 45th week (November 3-9), representing a recovery rate of 82.9% compared to the same period in 2019, which is a 14.5% decrease from the 40th week [1]

华源证券近日发布交通运输行业周报：国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11月11 日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日常业 务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新单日业务量纪录。快递市场规模持续 扩张，展现了邮政快递业对促进消费升级和实体经济增长的关键支撑作用。 1）国家邮政局召开座谈会持续强调旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。根据国家邮政局公众号，11月 10日-11日，国家邮政局分别召开企业协会座谈会和专家学者座谈会。在企业协会座谈会 上，中国快递协会和邮政集团、顺丰、中通、圆通、韵达、申通、极兔、京东、菜鸟、中外 运-敦豪、前海云途相关负责人围绕行业改革发展进行深入探讨交流。会议强调，要提升寄 递服务水平，践行以人民为中心的发展思想，巩固农村地区领取邮件快件违规收费专项整治 成效，旗帜鲜明"反内卷"。 2）2025年"双11"旺季快递业务量再创新高。国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11 月11日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日 常业务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新 ...