Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a decline of 1.17% on January 21, with China Eastern Airlines leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of China Eastern Airlines was 6.22, reflecting a decrease of 2.20% with a trading volume of 1,109,700 shares and a transaction value of 6.95 million [2]. - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 84.83 million from major funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 10.9 million, and speculative funds had a net inflow of 194 million [2][3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation (China National Airlines) had a net outflow of 22.99 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 5.52 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 28.51 million from retail investors [3]. - Xiamen Airport reported a net outflow of 2.03 million from major funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 1.35 million, and retail investors saw a net inflow of 0.68 million [3]. - Shenzhen Airport experienced a net inflow of 12.93 million from major funds, with a net inflow of 2.77 million from speculative funds and a net outflow of 15.69 million from retail investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current premium rates of AH shares, with Northeast Electric, Zhejiang Shibao, and Junda Co. leading in premium rates, while CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and China Merchants Bank are at the bottom of the list [1][2]. Premium Rate Rankings - Northeast Electric (00042) has a premium rate of 815.25%, followed by Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 378.67% and Junda Co. (02865) at 342.63% [2]. - The lowest premium rates are recorded for CATL (03750) at -13.79%, Hengrui Medicine (01276) at -2.52%, and China Merchants Bank (03968) at -2.22% [1][2]. Deviation Values - Junda Co. (02865) has the highest deviation value at 104.89%, followed by Goldwind Technology (02208) at 23.62% and Guanghetong (00638) at 20.17% [1][2]. - The lowest deviation values are for Northeast Electric (00042) at -35.64%, Chenming Paper (01812) at -16.87%, and China Life (02628) at -15.34% [1][4]. Additional Insights - The report includes a detailed table of the top ten and bottom ten AH stocks based on premium rates and deviation values, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market situation [2][3][4].

港股晨报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：特朗普关税威胁升级，美欧关系进 入敏感期，黄金白银价格创新高 昨日，港股三大指数持续下探。截至收盘，恒生指数跌 0.29%，国企指数跌 0.43%， 恒生科技指数跌 1.16%。大市成交金额 2,377.66 亿元，主板总卖空金额 329.52 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 15.68%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 36.63 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是腾讯 700.HK、美团 3690.HK、小米集团 1810.HK；净卖出最多的是中芯国际 981.HK、 中国移动 941.HK、中海油 883.HK。 板块方面，大消费板块飘红。其中，沪上阿姨 2589.HK 涨 9.87%，中烟香港 6055.HK 涨 6.04%，中国波顿 3318.HK 涨 4.71%，蜜雪集团 2097.HK 涨 3.64%， 中国南方航空 1055.HK 涨 4.57%，中国国航 753.HK 涨 3.91%，中国东方航空 670.HK 涨 3.68%，华润啤酒 291.HK 涨 3. ...

Market Overview - US stock futures are declining, with Dow Jones futures down 1.56%, S&P 500 futures down 1.70%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 2% [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 0.29% amid ongoing concerns regarding Greenland and potential tariffs imposed by the US [1] - Gold prices continue to rise, increasing by 1.23% to $4728.32 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 10% [1] A-Share Market - A-share financing buy-in amounts fell to 267.4 billion yuan on January 19, a decrease of 20.35% from the previous week and 40.68% from the peak of 450.8 billion yuan on January 14 [2] - Major insurance stocks like China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance performed well, each rising over 4% [2] Consumer Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to stimulate consumption from 2025, including issuing long-term special bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan [3] - Airline stocks such as China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and China Southern Airlines saw gains of over 4% due to positive market sentiment [3] Food and Beverage Sector - Companies like Anjuke Foods and Yihai International are expected to show strong sales growth, with Anjuke reaching historical highs [4] - Nine Mao Jiu announced a share buyback, resulting in a nearly 6% increase in stock price [4] Smart Driving Sector - Xixiang Group plans to acquire a 51% stake in Kuangshi Technology, marking its entry into the smart driving industry, with stock surging over 20% [5] - Youjia Innovation signed a memorandum with Sterling Tools Limited to deploy ADAS and DMS systems in India, leading to a stock increase of over 7% [6] Real Estate Sector - New policies support urban renewal and market stabilization, encouraging real estate companies to shift towards stock renovation and light asset services [7] - Key players include China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and China Overseas Land [7] Tobacco Industry - China Tobacco Hong Kong is building a global sales platform for Chinese cigars, signing exclusive distribution agreements with several regional tobacco companies [8] - The company’s core business segments contribute significantly to its revenue, with leaf product imports accounting for 81.4% of total revenue [8][9]

Core Insights - The domestic through-flight business in China's civil aviation industry has shown remarkable growth in 2025, with 970,000 groups of flights and over 3.13 million passengers, representing year-on-year increases of 167% and 148% respectively [1] Group 1: Business Growth and Network Expansion - The domestic through-flight business continued to grow rapidly in 2025, with over 140,000 new flight registrations, including 26,300 cross-airline through-flights, marking a year-on-year increase of over 143% compared to 2024 [2] - The industry has seen a comprehensive enhancement in participation, with all 41 domestic airlines, 259 airports, and over 300 ground service units signing the "Through-Flight Service Agreement" [2] - A total of 11,107 groups of routes connecting cities without direct flights have been established, contributing to the creation of a "national civil aviation network" [2] Group 2: Airline Collaboration and Market Dynamics - A differentiated and positive development pattern has emerged, with major airlines leading and smaller airlines collaborating, enhancing the overall industry dynamics [3] - Major airlines such as China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China have collectively served 653,100 through-flight passengers, accounting for 65.31% of the total industry [3] - Hainan Airlines has integrated resources from 11 domestic passenger airlines to promote cross-airline joint transport products, with 86% of its through-flight passengers coming from cross-airline cooperation [3] Group 3: Hub Airport and Regional Connectivity - Hub airports like Beijing Daxing, Xi'an, and Urumqi have effectively utilized their route networks to gather and distribute passenger flows, ranking among the top five in terms of domestic through-flight passenger support [4] - Regional airports have leveraged the "multiplier effect" of hub airports, with Hetian Airport increasing its operational reach by 77% and serving over 80,000 through-flight passengers, a 4.1-fold increase year-on-year [4] Group 4: Standardization and Brand Development - The introduction of the "Domestic Through-Flight Service Part 1: Identification" standard has enhanced service recognition and brand building within the industry [5] - This standard has been recognized as a high-quality group standard in Beijing and is now applied across 21 airlines, 186 airports, and 6 OTA platforms, improving brand visibility throughout the passenger journey [5] Group 5: Innovative Service Models - A new service model for handling overweight luggage has been implemented to address industry pain points, allowing passengers to pay for overweight luggage fees at the departure station and ensuring seamless transfer [6][7] - The new model has been successfully trialed in Wuhan and Shijiazhuang airports, with plans for broader industry implementation expected by 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [6]. Core Insights - The demand for air travel in China is expected to remain strong in 2026, with the Spring Festival travel period anticipated to see significant passenger flow, benefiting airline revenue management [3][6]. - The aviation industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with structural changes in demand being a core issue. The private travel demand has remained robust over the past three years, while business travel demand is expected to stay below 2019 levels in 2024-2025 [6]. - The report forecasts a 5-6% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic for 2025, with a cumulative growth of 17% compared to 2019 [6][10]. - Despite high passenger load factors reaching historical highs, ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with domestic ticket prices expected to be lower in 2025 compared to 2024 and 2019 [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the Chinese aviation industry is experiencing a structural shift, with private demand outpacing business demand. The overall passenger flow is projected to grow significantly, with a 7% increase during the 2025 Spring Festival travel period [6][10]. Passenger Traffic and Load Factors - The estimated passenger traffic for 2025 is expected to grow by 5-6%, with domestic traffic increasing by 4-5% and international traffic seeing a nearly 30% increase [6][10]. - The passenger load factor is projected to reach 85% in 2025, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [22]. Ticket Pricing - Domestic ticket prices are expected to decrease by approximately 2-3% in 2025, with the overall ticket price trend influenced by high base numbers and competition from high-speed rail [25][32]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the 2026 Spring Festival will see sustained demand, with airlines managing capacity and pricing strategies effectively. The expected travel period is from February 2 to March 13, 2026, with pre-sales already showing significant growth [6][3]. - The report suggests that the Chinese aviation industry is on the verge of a "super cycle," driven by demand growth and structural recovery in passenger demographics, which will support ticket price and profitability increases [6]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position on several airlines, including China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, based on their potential for performance in the upcoming market conditions [6][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the aviation industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference has set a growth target for 2026, aiming for a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, a passenger transport volume of 810 million, and a cargo and mail transport volume of 10.7 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The report highlights that the global aircraft supply chain has not yet recovered, leading to increased aging of aircraft and supply constraints. The delivery cycle for new aircraft has extended to 6.8 years, which is longer than the 4.5 years seen in 2018 [3]. - Demand is expected to rise due to visa exemption policies that have increased the number of inbound travelers, with predictions of a significant increase in cross-border passenger flow. The report anticipates that the Spring Festival travel season in 2026 will see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume compared to the previous year [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain remains disrupted, with Airbus and Boeing's delivery levels not returning to pre-pandemic figures. The backlog of aircraft orders exceeds 15,000 units, equivalent to 8-10 years of production capacity [3]. - The Chinese aviation industry is also affected, with only a 4.0% year-on-year increase in the total number of passenger aircraft in 2025 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies has led to a stable increase in foreign travelers entering China, with the proportion of visa-exempt foreign visitors remaining above 70% [3]. - The report predicts that the Spring Festival travel season will exhibit a "旺季更旺" (peak season is even busier) characteristic, with ticket prices expected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continuing to invest in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing and the historical high passenger load factors. It suggests that airlines are likely to see significant improvements in profitability, marking the beginning of a "golden era" for the industry [3]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, along with a focus on global aircraft leasing companies and improving airport performance [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for mainland Chinese airlines [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has a positive outlook on Asia-Pacific airlines for 2026, expecting profitability to be supported by sustained high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential benefits from excess oil supply [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The average earnings per share forecast for Asia-Pacific airlines for 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 22% to reflect improved passenger and cargo unit revenue outlook [1] - The largest upward revision is for airlines in mainland China [1] Group 2: Target Price Adjustments - The average target price for Asia-Pacific airlines has been increased by 30% to reflect the earnings forecast adjustments [1] - China Eastern Airlines' target price has been raised from HKD 2 to HKD 2.9, maintaining an underperform rating [1] - China Southern Airlines' target price has been increased from HKD 3.1 to HKD 5.92, with the rating upgraded from underperform to neutral [1] - Air China’s target price has been raised from HKD 4.2 to HKD 8.3, with the rating upgraded from underperform to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a notable increase of 2.53% on January 20, with Southern Airlines leading the gains, while the overall stock market indices showed slight declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - Southern Airlines saw a closing price of 8.13, with a rise of 4.90%, and a trading volume of 936,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 750 million yuan [1]. - China Eastern Airlines closed at 6.36, up 3.75%, with a trading volume of 1,763,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.111 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China National Aviation Holdings closed at 9.10, increasing by 3.29%, with a trading volume of 991,800 shares and a transaction value of 895 million yuan [1]. - Shenzhen Airport's closing price was 7.16, up 2.43%, with a trading volume of 294,900 shares and a transaction value of 209 million yuan [1]. - Shanghai Airport closed at 32.37, rising by 2.05%, with a trading volume of 206,900 shares and a transaction value of 666 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net inflow of 137 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.22 billion yuan [2]. - Southern Airlines had a net outflow of 57.22 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 38.10 million yuan [3]. - Shanghai Airport recorded a net inflow of 45.37 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 34.33 million yuan [3].