Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.13% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiangsu Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, down 0.0%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13604.07, up 0.49% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiangsu Bank closed at 10.44, up 1.16% with a trading volume of 1.2384 million shares [1] - Qilu Bank closed at 5.64, up 0.71% with a trading volume of 707,800 shares [1] - Hangzhou Bank closed at 15.36, up 0.52% with a trading volume of 365,100 shares [1] - Ningbo Bank closed at 28.18, up 0.43% with a trading volume of 182,200 shares [1] - Shanghai Bank closed at 10.17, up 0.39% with a trading volume of 530,900 shares [1] - Guiyang Bank closed at 5.87, up 0.17% with a trading volume of 246,900 shares [1] - Chengdu Bank closed at 16.12, down 0.31% with a trading volume of 298,500 shares [2] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 191 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 7.0084 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for individual banks are detailed, with Hangzhou Bank receiving a net inflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiangsu Bank had a net inflow of 111 million yuan from institutional investors but a net outflow of 124 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - In order to better meet the financial needs of investors, Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. has signed sales agreements with various banks to expand the distribution of its funds starting from December 30, 2025 [1][9][14]. Group 1: New Sales Agreements - The company has entered into a sales agreement with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to sell certain funds [1]. - A similar agreement has been established with Zhongyuan Bank, allowing them to sell the company's funds starting from the same date [9]. - Additionally, Ningbo Bank will also be added as a sales platform for a specific bond fund [14]. Group 2: Fund Sales Information - The sales processes, opening conditions, handling times, and fee discount details will be determined by the respective banks [1][9][14]. - Fund subscription and redemption services will only be available during normal subscription periods and specific open days [1][9][14]. - Investors can utilize a regular investment plan through these banks, allowing automatic deductions for fund purchases [2][10][15]. Group 3: Fund Manager Appointments - Zhang Xiaonan has been appointed as an assistant fund manager for several funds, bringing 15 years of experience in the securities and fund industry [5][7]. - Jin Huang has also been appointed as an assistant fund manager for various funds, with 9 years of experience in the sector [5][7].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 银行业投资策略 银行春季躁动布局策略：复盘与展望 | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田维韦 | 021-60875161 | tianweiwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030002 | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | 核心观点： 过去十年春节前银行表现复盘：银行指数胜率高达 80%以上，个股分化明显，优质股份行和城商行往往可 以跑出超额收益，国有大行表现稳健。过去十年复盘结果，申万银行指数仅在 2020 年的春节前行情中同 时没有绝对收益和超额收益，指数胜率超过 80%。31 个申万行业指数中，绝对收益和超额收益角度，申万 银行指数都是胜率都是最高的，申万银行指数历年春节前绝对收益率均值为 4.4%，超额收益率（相对上证 指数）均值为 4.9%，均处在申万行业指数首位。 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector has shown a high win rate of over 80% in the ten years leading up to the Spring Festival, with significant differentiation among individual stocks, where quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks often outperform, while state-owned banks provide stable performance [2][4][19] - The Shenyin Wanguo Banking Index has the highest win rate for absolute and excess returns among 31 industry indices, with an average absolute return of 4.4% and an average excess return of 4.9% before the Spring Festival [2][4] - The favorable conditions for the banking sector before the Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to continue, driven by balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and supportive policies leading to better credit performance [2][16][22] Stock Allocation Recommendations - A suggested allocation strategy is to maintain a stable core position (30% in state-owned banks) and an aggressive portfolio (70% in quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks) [3][19][22] - Key recommendations for stable state-owned banks include Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the aggressive portfolio should focus on China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3][19][22] Individual Stock Performance - Individual stock performance shows significant differentiation, with quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks more likely to achieve excess returns, while state-owned banks are characterized by strong defensiveness but limited elasticity [13][19] - Historical data indicates that the top-performing bank stocks before the Spring Festival include China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changsha Bank, which frequently appear in the top gainers list [13][14] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high win rate of the banking index before the Spring Festival is attributed to various factors, including balanced market styles, strong demand for high-dividend stocks, and effective policy measures [16][20][22] - For 2026, the expectation is that the banking sector will continue to benefit from stable growth policies, with a likely increase in credit issuance compared to the previous year, favoring banks with strong credit performance [16][22]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for all listed banks analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [6]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the classification of financial investments, the current allocation of listed banks, and how related revenues are accounted for under new accounting standards [5]. - As of Q3 2025, the financial investments of 42 listed banks total approximately 101.5 trillion CNY, with 87% allocated to the configuration portfolio and 13% to the trading portfolio [5][23]. - The bond market is the primary investment direction for listed banks, accounting for 87.6% of their financial investments, with government bonds making up 59.5% of this total [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Classification of Financial Investments - Financial assets are classified into three categories under the new accounting standards: FVTPL (fair value through profit or loss), AC (amortized cost), and FVOCI (fair value through other comprehensive income) [12][13]. - The classification is based on the business model for managing financial assets and the cash flow characteristics of the financial assets [14]. 2. Accounting for Market Revenues - FVTPL assets reflect market fluctuations through "fair value changes" in profit or loss, while AC assets do not reflect fair value changes and primarily generate income from interest [5]. - FVOCI assets account for market fluctuations in other comprehensive income, with interest income recognized in profit or loss [5]. 3. Financial Investment Structure - The configuration portfolio is dominant, with state-owned banks showing the highest allocation to AC, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have a higher proportion of trading assets [23][24][25]. - The report notes a structural shift where FVOCI is becoming the main growth area, as banks seek flexibility in their investment strategies [5][23].

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights that the liquor industry is accelerating its bottoming process, moving towards supply-demand balance, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye expected to stimulate sales through price adjustments in 2026 [3] - The domestic dairy product sector is anticipated to see accelerated domestic substitution due to temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, which may increase domestic milk consumption and reverse the industry cycle [3] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with price elasticity such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as high-growth beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [2][3] Group 2: Banking Sector - The report on Ningbo Bank indicates a strong growth trajectory in loans, with a year-on-year increase of 17.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by corporate clients [10] - The bank's net profit growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 8.6%, 10.9%, and 12.4%, respectively, with a target price of 38.89 yuan per share [9] - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a decrease in non-performing loan generation rate from 1.23% in Q1 2024 to 0.92% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in credit risk management [11] Group 3: Energy Sector - PX and PTA prices have been on the rise since October 2025, with PX futures increasing from 6296 yuan/ton to 7324 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.33% [13] - The polyester production in China showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating robust downstream demand [14] - The report anticipates a tight supply-demand balance for PX in the first half of 2026, with new capacity expected to come online in the second half of the year [14] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interface Industry - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for the development of brain-computer interfaces in China, with numerous policies being introduced to support the industry [6] - Clinical trials for invasive and semi-invasive brain-computer interfaces are expected to surge, with several companies like Borui Kang aiming for regulatory approval in 2026 [8] - The commercialization of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces is already underway in areas such as brain monitoring and rehabilitation, indicating early market entry [8]

Group 1 - The "2025 Banking Industry High-Quality Development Conference" was successfully held in Beijing, focusing on themes such as serving the real economy, digital transformation, AI+financial innovation, and risk prevention [1] - The conference gathered regulatory experts, academic elites, industry leaders, and representatives from technology companies to discuss strategies for high-quality development in the banking sector [1] Group 2 - The General Manager of the Big Data Department at Citic Baixin Bank, Zhou Beichun, shared insights on the application of AI in intelligent risk control during a roundtable forum [3] - Citic Baixin Bank aims to leverage financial technology to break physical boundaries in banking services, providing simple and convenient online financial services to a broader customer base [3] - The bank has developed a four-layer digital risk control system, which includes data, risk feature mining, model construction, and real-time risk operation, achieving a commendable industry standard [3] Group 3 - Zhou Beichun emphasized that AI has transitioned from being a new technology to a new productive force in banking, indicating that it is likely to replace junior employees [4] - Two main challenges in AI application within banks were identified: computational power and the need for a fundamental change in AI training models [4] - AI is viewed as a highly intelligent and capable junior employee, and it should be assigned appropriate tasks for continuous development, particularly in intelligent risk control [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank announces service arrangements for year-end financial closing on December 31, 2025, to facilitate customers' fund transfers and planning [1] Group 1: Personal Electronic Channel Services - Personal foreign exchange services will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 21:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [2] - Personal precious metals services will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 5, 2026, at 09:00 [2] - Personal payment services for living expenses in Ningbo will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [2] - Personal financing repayment services will have differentiated suspensions based on products, with further announcements to follow if applicable [3] Group 2: Corporate Electronic Channel Services - Corporate payment services for living expenses in Ningbo will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 15:30 and will resume on January 1, 2026, at 08:30 [5] - Foreign exchange management services, including spot, forward, swap, and options trading, will be suspended from December 31, 2025, 17:00 and will resume on January 4, 2026, at 08:30 [5] - Corporate financing repayment services will also have differentiated suspensions based on products, with further announcements to follow if applicable [6] Group 3: General Operations - All other services will continue normal operations during this period [4][7] - Customers are advised to make necessary financial arrangements and can contact Ningbo Bank's customer service hotline for urgent matters [7]

金融界总编辑金明正表示，中国银行业发展新动能正持续积聚，行业摒弃规模情结转向提质增效，以反 内卷、优服务、错位发展为共识，数智化转型向纵深推进，人工智能、大模型等新技术重塑业务流程与 服务模式，为破解融资难、融资贵提供科技支撑。 此外，华夏银行信息科技管理部总经理韩波在会上分享了依托 AI 打造全链路协同体系的实践，实现服 务效率与客户体验双提升；光大银行智能运营中心副总经理黄广明介绍了该行推动 AI 大模型应用的成 效，聚焦流程自动化增效；中信百信银行大数据部总经理周北春详解了AI技术在银行智能风控领域应 用的突破。（经济日报记者 马春阳） 中国社科院大学教授、国务院原副秘书长江小涓表示，"十五五" 时期我国科技创新产业（300832）将 迎来快速发展，产业创新将呈现蓬勃态势，创新项目有望以 "涌现式" 形态出现。金融业须加快市场 化、数智化、国际化转型步伐，抓住我国科技创新带来的新机遇，拓展自身的发展空间。 与会人士普遍认为，人工智能是赋能金融提质增效的关键变量，将成为破解金融行业效率瓶颈、激活创 新动能的重要抓手。清华大学经济管理学院教授、中国金融研究中心主任陆瑶在会上阐释了AI与大数 据对金融机构风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector experienced a significant value reassessment throughout 2025, culminating in a total market capitalization exceeding 15.65 trillion yuan, marking a notable recovery and growth in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The banking index increased by 12.06% over the year, with 42 listed banks achieving a combined market value growth of 15.37% compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China emerged as the standout performer with a 51.86% increase in stock price, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in total market value [1][2]. - 35 out of 42 listed banks saw their stock prices rise, with several regional banks like Xiamen Bank and Chongqing Bank also showing strong performance, each exceeding a 20% increase [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio showed signs of improvement, with some banks briefly exceeding a ratio of 1, indicating a shift away from the "broken net" situation that had persisted [4]. - The market's transition from valuation repair to value reassessment is attributed to improved investor confidence in banks' long-term profitability and asset quality [3][4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The supportive policy environment, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, has created a favorable operating climate for banks, enhancing their appeal to long-term investors [8]. - The influx of long-term capital from insurance and pension funds into the banking sector has been driven by regulatory changes and a focus on stable returns [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The continuation of the value reassessment in 2026 will depend on macroeconomic stability, ongoing supportive policies, and confirmation of profit growth [9][10]. - The market is expected to experience a more structured performance, with large banks favored for their stability and certain regional banks potentially offering greater growth opportunities [10][11].