Group 1: Global Investment Trends - Global upstream operators are expected to cut capital expenditure by at least 2-3% year-on-year in 2026, marking a decline of more than 5% compared to 2024 levels, as the industry adapts to sub-$60/bbl oil prices while focusing on long-term resilience [1] - Wood Mackenzie predicts that operators will continue to pursue strategic growth opportunities in various regions, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, which are projected to add at least 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent through the 2030s [1] Group 2: Libya's Oil Exploration Initiatives - Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) has launched its first oil exploration bid round in over 17 years, with bids expected in February 2026 for 22 onshore and offshore blocks, aiming to boost production and attract foreign investment [2] - This initiative aligns with Libya's goal to reach a production level of 2 million barrels per day, close to pre-2011 crisis output, and is viewed as a significant opportunity for international energy companies [2] Group 3: Developments in Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Syria - Iraq and Oman are advancing new oil drilling opportunities, including a preliminary agreement to build a crude oil pipeline from Basra to Duqm, which will diversify Iraq's export routes [3] - Kuwait is expanding offshore production, highlighted by the Nokhetha discovery, which contains estimated reserves of 2.1 billion barrels of light oil and 5.1 trillion cubic feet of gas [4] - ADNOC Drilling is expanding its presence in Kuwait and Oman by acquiring a 70% stake in SLB's land drilling rig business, securing six rigs in Oman and two in Kuwait, with plans to double the fleet [4]

Core Insights - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) plans to distribute AED158 billion ($43 billion) in dividends across its six publicly listed subsidiaries by 2030, nearly doubling the total amount paid since its first IPO in 2017 [1][2] Company-Specific Highlights - ADNOC Distribution aims for AED18 billion ($4.9 billion) in dividends with quarterly distributions starting in 2026, and plans to expand its stations to 1,150 by 2028, expecting non-fuel retail transactions to double by 2030 [5] - ADNOC Drilling has increased its 2025 dividend floor by 27% to AED3.7 billion ($1 billion), with a cumulative AED25 billion ($6.8 billion) expected by 2030, and is utilizing AI to reduce non-productive drilling time by 20% [5] - ADNOC Gas announced AED90 billion ($24.4 billion) in dividends through 2030 and a new AED147 billion ($40 billion) gas supply agreement, with projected Q3 2025 results expected to rise 5% year-on-year despite weaker oil prices [5] - ADNOC Logistics & Services (L&S) raised its 2025 dividend floor to AED1.2 billion ($325 million) and expects total dividends of AED8.1 billion ($2.2 billion) through 2030, alongside a 50-year AED4.8 billion ($1.3 billion) port contract [5] - Borouge maintains a 2025 dividend floor of 16.2 fils per share, with total payouts projected at AED27 billion ($7.3 billion) through 2030, and is set to merge with OMV and Nova Chemicals to become the world's fourth-largest polyolefins producer [5] - Fertiglobe announced total shareholder returns of at least AED1.02 billion ($277 million) in 2025, a 25% increase from guidance, with AI-driven efficiency gains expected to add AED92 million ($25 million) in annual EBITDA by 2030 [5]

Equity – Asia Research 2025 年全球新能源展望 --哪些可行，哪些不可行 Scott Darling, scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine Li, catherine.dy.li@htisec.com 2025 年 6 月 23 日 （本报告为 2025 年 6 月 19 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International (Japan) K.K.("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), a ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Sipchem to Neutral from Buy due to limited earnings upside and full valuation [3][62]. Core Insights - The energy sector is experiencing a lower-for-longer oil price environment, with oil prices dropping approximately 13% since the start of the year to US$65/bbl, and forecasts suggest an average of US$64/bbl for 2025 and 2026 [1][34]. - The report favors GCC upstream/midstream names, particularly Abu Dhabi energy companies, which are better positioned to weather market volatility due to secured growth potential and advantageous contractual frameworks [2][34]. - In the chemicals sector, fertilizers are preferred due to strong demand dynamics, while caution is advised on petrochemicals due to high uncertainty and oversupply concerns [3][62]. Summary by Sections Energy Sector - The report highlights a preference for Abu Dhabi energy names due to their regulated returns and visible growth potential, with companies like ADNOC Drilling, ADNOC Gas, and Saudi Aramco rated as Buy [2][36]. - GCC energy names have shown strong year-on-year growth, with an average EBITDA consensus beat of approximately 6%, although share price performance has been muted [35][38]. - The report notes that the UAE's natural gas supply is expected to grow significantly, with Saudi Aramco aiming to increase gas production by over 60% by 2030 [12][54]. Chemicals Sector - The ME&A chemicals sector has underperformed, down approximately 11% year-to-date, with a notable decline in share prices for companies like Sipchem and Kayan [20][62]. - The report indicates that while margins are expected to expand in the second quarter, a weak macro backdrop could pressure earnings into the second half of 2025 [22][67]. - Companies with balanced product exposure and those benefiting from shareholder returns have fared better, while Sipchem is seen as less likely to benefit from a lower oil price environment due to its high fixed feed component [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on selected companies within the MENA region, particularly focusing on UAE and Saudi Arabia [9][45]. Core Insights - The GCC markets exhibit resilience to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on sectors less sensitive to oil prices, particularly in the UAE [2][54]. - A bearish outlook for oil prices is anticipated in 2025-26 due to increased non-OPEC production, but a bullish cycle is expected to follow from 2027 onwards [8][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of economic diversification in the UAE, which is less exposed to oil price fluctuations compared to Saudi Arabia [27][55]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The US macro team has raised the growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1% and reduced the 12-month recession odds to 35% [15][20]. - The perceived de-escalation of tariffs is seen as an indirect positive for GCC markets, although oil price movements remain a more relevant driver for regional performance [17][21]. Sector Analysis - The UAE is highlighted as favorably positioned due to its economic diversification, with strong prospects in Real Estate, Energy, and Mobility sectors [3][54]. - In Saudi Arabia, the focus is on identifying resilient companies in the TMT sector and selective opportunities within Financials, Consumers, and Chemicals [3][54]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors identified for investment include UAE Real Estate, Energy (specifically ADNOC), and Infrastructure/Mobility [10][12]. - In Saudi Arabia, companies like Saudi Aramco and SABIC are favored due to their strong fundamentals and strategic positioning [10][45]. Capex Cycle Insights - The report anticipates continued spending momentum across sectors in the GCC, particularly in Energy, Digital Innovation, and Clean Tech, despite a lower oil price environment [46][50]. - The GCC Capex Wave is expected to focus on non-oil sectors, with significant investments in digitization, metals & mining, and clean energy [39][40]. Company-Specific Recommendations - The report recommends a selective approach to investments in banks, favoring those with a balanced loan mix and strong deposit franchises, such as SNB and Riyad Bank [10][45]. - In the consumer sector, companies like Almarai and Lulu are under scrutiny for their ability to navigate current market pressures [10][12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report covers insights on the bond market, oil prices, and the green transition in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. - **Company**: Barclays Capital Inc. is the primary entity providing this analysis. Core Insights and Arguments Bond Market and Dollar Dynamics - The dollar has depreciated since March, with a steeper U.S. yield curve historically correlating with a weaker dollar, primarily due to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [5][15][16]. - Current bond market volatility is creating an unfavorable environment for the dollar, with potential shifts in trade policy and economic data leading to a rise in EUR/USD towards 1.15 [5][17][18]. - Despite these fluctuations, the dollar is not expected to weaken sustainably beyond current forecasts, with concerns that EUR/USD 1.15 may not be a sustainable equilibrium [5][18]. Oil Market Outlook - There is a belief that negative sentiment surrounding the oil market is short-sighted, as oil demand continues to surprise positively, and refining margins are at 18-month highs [5][20]. - OPEC+ spare capacity is declining, and by 2027, the oil market may face limited easily accessible spare capacity, indicating a potential upcycle in oil prices [5][20]. - The next 12 months are seen as an opportune time to build positions in key oil companies such as Shell, Eni, and Repsol, among others [5][20]. Green Transition in APAC - Seven Asian governments have reaffirmed their climate goals, with notable developments including the issuance of sovereign green bonds by China and Thailand [6][22][23]. - Mentions of "climate change" in corporate filings have increased by 32% year-to-date, indicating a growing focus on sustainability [6][24]. - Asia has experienced a 6% year-over-year growth in ESG-labeled bond issuance, driven by strong demand from China and Australia [6][25]. - The period of 2025-2026 is expected to see further advancements in sustainability regulations, enhancing corporate accountability and stimulating sustainable investments [6][21][26]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the need for integrated energy companies to adapt their portfolios for the next decade, with a focus on offshore and Middle Eastern operations becoming more competitive compared to U.S. onshore [5][20]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about consumer weakness and the impact of tariffs on net margins for FY25 [27][31][32]. - The earnings results for Q1 2025 showed strong performance, but there are signs of stress in consumer sectors, indicating a mixed outlook for the upcoming quarters [27][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future expectations across the bond, oil, and sustainability sectors.