今日早参 2026 年 2 月 26 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 风险提示：房地产政策波动，房地产市场复苏不及预期，部分房企经营风 险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 刘璐 SAC:S0570519070001 SFC:BRD825 固定收益：AI 叙事的转变 ——基本面观察 2 月第 2 期 2026 年以来，全球 AI 叙事正在经历一次重要的边际变化，我们至少看到了 三层叙事的转变。 第一层叙事：对 Scaling Law 开始出现一些分歧。 过去几年 AI 投资的核心引擎来自于 Scaling Law 的经验规律：模型越大、数 据越多、算力越强，性能越好。但这条规律正在出现一些裂痕。 风险提示：AI 开支不及预期，地缘政治风险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 吴靖 SAC:S0570523070006 房地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry [1] Core Insights - The storage supercycle remains a key theme for the semiconductor industry in 2026, driven by strong demand and limited supply [20][21] - Major technology companies are increasing their capital expenditure (Capex) forecasts, which supports the positive outlook for the storage market [22] - The report highlights the importance of advanced packaging and the potential for new technologies like CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) to enhance system performance [15][14] Summary by Sections Storage Market - The storage market is entering a seller's market characterized by rising prices and demand, with DRAM ASPs increasing approximately 40% for Samsung and 20% for SK Hynix in Q4 2025 [4][20] - The report anticipates that DRAM prices will continue to rise in Q1 2026, with a forecasted increase of 90-95% for conventional DRAM [25] - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with capital expenditures focused on HBM and advanced processes rather than broad capacity expansion [21][4] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is becoming a critical area of focus, with companies like Intel and Samsung investing in 2.5D/3D packaging technologies [14] - The demand for advanced packaging is expected to grow as cloud service providers increase their capital expenditures and accelerate in-house chip development [15] CPO (Chiplet Packaging Optimization) - CPO is projected to gain traction, with NVIDIA showcasing its CPO solutions that significantly enhance system-level efficiency [15] - The report notes that CPO applications are expected to transition from scale-out to scale-up, improving bandwidth density and energy efficiency [15] Capital Expenditure Trends - North American tech giants are significantly increasing their Capex forecasts for 2026, with estimates reaching approximately $655 billion, a 60% year-over-year increase [22] - This increase in Capex is expected to support ongoing demand for high-performance storage solutions and AI applications [22][24]

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that surpassed management's guidance, highlighting a record backlog that indicates sustained demand for its solutions [1][9] Financial Performance - Revenues reached $1.44 billion, exceeding guidance of $1.405-$1.435 billion, and increased by 6.2% year over year [2] - Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $1.99, above the guidance of $1.88-$1.94, marking a 5.9% year-over-year increase [2] - The backlog stood at $7.8 billion, with current remaining performance obligations at $3.8 billion, reflecting strong customer demand [2] Market Demand and Trends - The significant increase in backlog was driven by accelerating demand across various end markets, particularly due to AI solutions [3] - AI is transforming semiconductor and system design, with robust design activity in sectors like data centers and automotive [4] - Customers are increasing their R&D budgets for AI-driven automation, contributing to the strong demand for Cadence's solutions [4] Product Innovations - Cadence is experiencing momentum in both "AI for Design" and "Design for AI," with the launch of ChipStack AI Super Agent and the adoption of products like Cerebrus, Verisium, and Allegro X AI [5] - The hardware business also contributed to backlog growth, with over 30 new customers and increased repeat demand from AI and hyperscalers [6] Future Outlook - For 2026, revenues are projected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected to range from $8.05 to $8.15 [7] - In 2025, revenues surged by 14% to $5.297 billion, while non-GAAP EPS increased by 20% to $7.14 [7]

Have you evaluated the performance of Cadence Design Systems' (CDNS) international operations for the quarter ending December 2025? Given the extensive global presence of this maker of hardware and software products for validating chip designs, analyzing the patterns in international revenues is crucial for understanding its financial strength and potential for growth.In today's increasingly interconnected global economy, a company's ability to tap into international markets can be a pivotal factor in shap ...

Market Overview - U.S. markets experienced volatility due to escalating tensions with Iran and concerns over private credit stability [1][2] - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.31% [3] Oil Market - Oil prices increased by nearly 2% amid fears of supply disruptions due to potential military action in Iran [2] Private Credit Market - Blue Owl Capital sold $1.4 billion in loan assets, which raised concerns about liquidity and stability in the private credit market, leading to a nearly 6% decline in its stock [2] - Other asset managers, including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management, also saw their shares retreat [2] Technology Sector - Software stocks, including Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence Design Systems, ended the trading day lower [2] International Economic Indicators - Japan's headline inflation rate fell to 1.5% in January, the lowest since March 2022, and below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time in 46 months [4] - Investors are awaiting China's loan prime rate decision, which is expected later in the day [4]

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

Financial Performance - Product and maintenance revenue for fiscal 2025 was $4,822 million, accounting for 91% of total revenue, compared to $4,214 million (91%) in 2024 and $3,834 million (94%) in 2023[53] - Services revenue increased to $475 million (9% of total revenue) in 2025 from $428 million (9%) in 2024 and $256 million (6%) in 2023[53] - Total revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $5,297 million, up from $4,642 million in 2024 and $4,090 million in 2023[53] - In fiscal 2025, total revenue reached $5,297 million, a 14.1% increase from $4,642 million in fiscal 2024[53] - Revenue from services increased to $475 million in fiscal 2025, representing 9% of total revenue, compared to 6% in fiscal 2023[53] Performance Obligations - Contracted but unsatisfied performance obligations amounted to $7.8 billion as of December 31, 2025, with 53% expected to be recognized as revenue over the next 12 months[55][56] - As of December 31, 2025, contracted but unsatisfied performance obligations were $7.8 billion, including $0.6 billion of non-cancelable commitments[55] - The company expects to recognize 53% of the contracted but unsatisfied performance obligations as revenue over the next 12 months, and 43% over the next 13 to 36 months[56] Research and Development - The company plans to continue significant investments in R&D to innovate and enhance current products, addressing increasing complexity in semiconductor design[58] - The company emphasizes significant investments in Research and Development (R&D) to support advancements in AI-driven computational software and hardware, essential for managing design complexity[21] - The company continues to make significant investments in R&D to innovate and enhance current products, aligning with the complexity of semiconductor and systems design[58] Product and Service Offerings - The Cadence Cloud portfolio is expanding with additional cloud-based and SaaS products, enhancing service offerings for customers[50] - Cadence's product categories include Core EDA, Semiconductor IP, and System Design and Analysis (SD&A), which are tightly integrated to support the electronic product design process[24] - The company integrates advanced AI technologies into its design platforms, enabling the creation of highly accurate digital twins for improved design efficiency and reliability[23] - Cadence's solutions are critical for optimizing performance, power, and area (PPA) of semiconductors, while also accelerating time-to-market for customers[21] - The company offers a comprehensive suite of functional verification tools, including the Jasper Formal Verification Platform and Xcelium™ Parallel Logic Simulation Platform, enhancing design quality and productivity[28] Competition and Market Environment - The company faces competition from both established firms and emerging players, with key competitors including Synopsys, Siemens EDA, and various international companies[72] - The company is subject to various governmental regulations, including trade controls and data privacy laws, which may impact its operations and financial condition[61] - The regulatory framework governing AI technologies is rapidly evolving, impacting the company's ability to develop and commercialize these technologies[69] - Regulatory changes, particularly concerning AI technologies and trade restrictions, may impact the company's ability to operate and innovate[68][63] Employee Engagement and Corporate Responsibility - The company emphasizes employee engagement and talent development as central to its success, regularly conducting surveys to measure engagement[74] - Cadence offers competitive compensation and benefits programs, linking employee compensation to business and individual performance[77] - The company aims to reduce its environmental footprint through corporate responsibility initiatives, appealing to top talent seeking to build careers with responsible organizations[81] - The Cadence Giving Foundation, established in 2021, focuses on community outreach and social impact through volunteer activities and charitable contributions[80] Leadership - Anirudh Devgan has been the CEO of Cadence since December 2021, with prior roles including Executive Vice President of Research and Development[85] - John M. Wall has served as CFO since October 2017, previously holding positions such as Corporate Vice President and Corporate Controller[86] - Paul Cunningham has been the Senior Vice President and General Manager of the System Verification Group since March 2021, previously co-founding Azuro, Inc. which Cadence acquired[87] - Paul Scannell has been with Cadence since 2005, currently serving as Senior Vice President of the Customer Success Team since May 2024[88] - Marc Taxay has been the Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary since May 2025, overseeing global legal operations[89] - Chin-Chi Teng has served as Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Digital and Signoff Group since September 2018, with a strong background in research and development[90] Acquisitions and Strategic Initiatives - The company expanded its AI-driven design and verification capabilities with the acquisition of advanced agentic AI technology, reducing verification cycles from weeks to days[30] - The acquisition of VLAB Works enhanced automotive electronic software and hardware development capabilities, addressing challenges in software-defined vehicles and systems[31] - The design IP portfolio was strengthened by acquiring the Arm Artisan foundation IP business, optimizing for advanced process nodes and enhancing time to market[33] - The acquisition of Secure-IC improved embedded security capabilities, addressing critical challenges in markets such as automotive and data centers[34] - The Millennium™ Multiphysics Enterprise Platform, co-developed with NVIDIA, aims to accelerate complex simulations in various fields, including semiconductor design[39]

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems' stock increased by 9% following the release of earnings that surpassed analysts' expectations, reporting an adjusted EPS of $1.99 and revenue of $1.44 billion for Q4 2025, reflecting a 6% year-over-year growth in both metrics [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.99 and revenue of $1.44 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.91 EPS and $1.42 billion in revenue [1] - For the next fiscal year, Cadence expects revenue between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, aligning with FactSet's expectation of $5.94 billion [4] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Trends - Approximately 45% of Cadence's business now comes from "system companies," which include hyperscalers and end producers of phones and cars, indicating a shift towards integrated hardware and software solutions [2] - The trend of system companies designing their own chips to optimize their hardware and software stack is expected to accelerate, as highlighted by examples from Apple and Google [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Cadence competes with other companies in the chip design software market, including Synopsys and Siemens [4]

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) reported Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.99, exceeding estimates by 4.7% and up 5.9% year over year, surpassing management's guidance of $1.88-$1.94 [1][3] - Revenues for Q4 reached $1.44 billion, beating estimates by 1.1% and increasing 6.2% year over year, driven by strong demand for AI-driven solutions [2][9] - For the full year 2025, revenues surged 14% to $5.297 billion, with non-GAAP EPS rising 20% to $7.14 [3] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - For 2026, CDNS estimates revenues between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, with a consensus estimate of $5.95 billion, indicating a 12.6% growth from the previous year [4] - Non-GAAP EPS for 2026 is projected to be between $8.05 and $8.15, with a consensus estimate of $8.03, reflecting a 13.8% increase from the prior year [4] Stock Performance - CDNS stock rose 4.7% in after-market trading and 6.9% in pre-market shares, outperforming the Computer - Software industry, which declined by 11.3% over the past year [7] Segment Performance - Product & Maintenance revenues, accounting for 92.5% of total revenues, increased 7.5% year over year to $1.332 billion, while Services revenues fell 7.7% to $108 million [8] - Core EDA revenue grew 13% in 2025, driven by AI-driven solutions, while the IP business rose 25% due to increased demand across various sectors [10][13] Margin and Cost Performance - Total non-GAAP costs and expenses rose 6.5% year over year to $781 million, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding by 300 basis points to 88.5% [14] - Non-GAAP operating margin contracted by 20 basis points year over year to 45.8% [14] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of December 31, 2025, CDNS had cash and cash equivalents of $3 billion, up from $2.753 billion in the previous quarter [15] - Operating cash flow for Q4 was $553 million, with free cash flow at $512 million, compared to $311 million and $277 million in the prior quarter, respectively [16] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, revenues are estimated to be between $1.42 billion and $1.46 billion, with a consensus estimate of $1.38 billion [17] - Non-GAAP EPS for Q1 is anticipated to be between $1.89 and $1.95, compared to $1.57 in the year-ago quarter [18]

分组1 - Cadence Design Systems, Inc (CDNS) reported quarterly results that are considered insufficient to justify its premium valuation [1] - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies with a proven ability to reinvest capital for impressive returns [1] - The ideal scenario involves companies demonstrating long-term capital compounding with a high compound annual growth rate, potentially delivering tenfold returns or greater [1] 分组2 - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuit of opportunities that present a favorable risk-reward ratio [1] - The approach emphasizes maintaining a long-term perspective to generate higher returns compared to market indices in a rapidly evolving investment landscape [1]