Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on JD Industrial with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 18.47, corresponding to a 2026 adjusted net profit PE of 28x [1][6]. Core Insights - JD Industrial is positioned as the largest industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China by GMV in 2024, leveraging its "Taipu" digital industrial supply chain solution to establish a comprehensive end-to-end digital infrastructure [1][24]. - The industrial supply chain market in China is vast, projected to reach CNY 11.4 trillion in 2024, but it remains highly fragmented and reliant on traditional offline systems, presenting opportunities for digital transformation [2][19]. - The company aims to enhance its core user base and market share through technological efficiency and group synergies, while also exploring BOM, international business, and proprietary brands for long-term revenue and profit expansion [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Chinese industrial supply chain market is characterized by a large scale but a highly fragmented structure, with a significant reliance on traditional procurement systems leading to high costs and inefficiencies [18][19]. - The penetration rate of industrial supply chain technology and services in China is low at 6.2%, compared to 15% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [2][19]. Competitive Advantage - JD Industrial possesses a strong end-to-end digital supply chain capability centered around the "Taipu" platform, which enhances procurement efficiency and management transparency [3][20]. - The company has established a robust first-mover advantage in the domestic market, supported by a wide SKU coverage and a growing base of key customers [3][20]. Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing an international expansion strategy, supporting key clients in entering Southeast Asian markets and exploring localized supply chain construction [21][22]. - JD Industrial's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 19.7% compared to 9.7% for comparable companies, driven by its strong supply chain capabilities [5][24]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for JD Industrial is forecasted to reach CNY 10.7 billion, CNY 15.9 billion, and CNY 21.6 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 48%, and 36% respectively [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a higher gross margin and effectively control operating expenses, contributing to improved profitability [5][10].

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 26 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 今日热点 风险提示：房地产政策波动，房地产市场复苏不及预期，部分房企经营风 险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 刘璐 SAC:S0570519070001 SFC:BRD825 固定收益：AI 叙事的转变 ——基本面观察 2 月第 2 期 2026 年以来，全球 AI 叙事正在经历一次重要的边际变化，我们至少看到了 三层叙事的转变。 第一层叙事：对 Scaling Law 开始出现一些分歧。 过去几年 AI 投资的核心引擎来自于 Scaling Law 的经验规律：模型越大、数 据越多、算力越强，性能越好。但这条规律正在出现一些裂痕。 风险提示：AI 开支不及预期，地缘政治风险。 研报发布日期：2026-02-25 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 吴靖 SAC:S0570523070006 房地产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the inclusion of JD Industrial (07618) in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective March 9, 2026, following a quarterly review on December 31, 2025 [1] Company Summary - JD Industrial is a leading provider of industrial supply chain technology and services in China, having listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 11, 2025 [1] - The company focuses on the digital transformation of industrial supply chains, helping clients achieve supply assurance, cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and compliance [1] - Since 2017, JD Industrial has specialized in MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) procurement services and has become the largest player in China's MRO procurement service market, with a transaction volume in 2024 nearly three times that of the second-largest competitor [1] Industry Summary - According to ZhiShi Consulting, JD Industrial is also the largest service provider in the Chinese industrial supply chain technology and services market, holding a market share of 4.1% based on transaction volume in 2024 [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests to pay attention to the company due to its potential for valuation recovery and the prospect of turning profitable in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company operates as a one-stop digital industrial supplies service platform, primarily serving manufacturing enterprises to reduce procurement and management costs while enhancing supply chain efficiency [2]. - The overall GMV for 2024 is projected to be 10.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.5% from 2020 to 2024 [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue was 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, indicating a return to positive revenue growth [2]. - The company aims for a GMV growth rate of 15-20% in 2026, with an adjusted net profit target of 150 million yuan [4]. Company Overview - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the MRO procurement service market, with its GMV, total revenue, and gross profit being about 31%, 40%, and 36% of JD Industrial's, respectively [3][11]. - The company’s gross margin stands at 16.8%, slightly lower than JD Industrial's 18.6% [3][18]. - The adjusted net loss for the third quarter of 2025 was 14 million yuan, a significant reduction compared to previous quarters [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 2.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a gross profit of 390 million yuan, maintaining a stable gross margin [2][9]. - Operating expenses have decreased, with sales, R&D, and administrative expenses down by 13%, 19%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [2][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA loss for Q3 2025 was 8 million yuan, showing improvement compared to previous periods [9]. Industry Outlook - The industrial supply chain technology and service market in China is expected to reach approximately 800 billion yuan in 2025, growing at a rate of 6.6% year-on-year [3]. - The industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2029, driven by strong demand for procurement efficiency and cost reduction among industrial enterprises [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for JD Industrial (07618) as a first-time coverage [1]. Core Insights - JD Industrial is a leading provider of industrial supply chain technology and services in China, having established a comprehensive digital infrastructure for end-to-end supply chain solutions. By 2024, it is projected to become the largest player in the MRO procurement market in China, serving over 11,100 key enterprise clients and offering approximately 81.1 million SKUs from around 158,000 suppliers [5][18]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 20.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.4% from 2021 to 2024. The adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach CNY 909 million, with a CAGR of 21.9% during the same period [4][25]. - The Chinese industrial supply chain market is the largest globally, with a market size of CNY 11.4 trillion in 2024, but the digital penetration is only 6.2%, significantly lower than the 15% in the U.S. [5][50]. - JD Industrial's market share in the domestic industrial supply chain technology and services market is 4.1%, while its share in the MRO procurement market is only 0.8%, indicating substantial growth potential [5][59]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for JD Industrial from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: CNY 17.34 billion (2023), CNY 20.40 billion (2024), CNY 24.49 billion (2025E), CNY 29.91 billion (2026E), CNY 35.96 billion (2027E) [4]. - Adjusted net profit: CNY 818 million (2023), CNY 909 million (2024), CNY 1.10 billion (2025E), CNY 1.74 billion (2026E), CNY 2.30 billion (2027E) [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 41 (2023), 36 (2024), 30 (2025E), 19 (2026E), and 14 (2027E) [4]. Industry Overview - The industrial supply chain market in China is characterized by its vast size and the early stage of digital transformation. The MRO procurement market is projected to reach CNY 3.7 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.1% from 2019 to 2024 [5][55]. - The market is highly fragmented, with JD Industrial being a key player. The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing digitalization trends, which are expected to accelerate market consolidation [5][58]. - The report highlights that the U.S. leading MRO companies have consistently outperformed the growth of the manufacturing value added, indicating a potential for similar trends in China as the market matures [5][8].

Market Overview - As of November 27, 2025, the number of projects in China's inquiry transfer market reached 163, a 140% increase compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The transfer scale reached 84.445 billion yuan, which is 380% higher than the total for 2024[4] - The average discount rate for inquiry transfers in 2025 is approximately 84.34%, significantly lower than the 87.2% for private placements[15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inquiry transfer mechanism was officially implemented on the ChiNext board in May 2024, leading to a surge in transfer announcements, with 69 recorded in 2025, accounting for 42.33% of the total[4][24] - The inquiry transfer market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 100.74% in project numbers from 2020 to 2025, and a CAGR of 84.68% in transfer scale[20] Investment Characteristics - Inquiry transfers have a shorter registration time of about one week compared to 3 weeks to 1 month for regular private placements, reducing capital occupation time by 2-3 weeks[14] - The inquiry transfer mechanism allows for a more flexible exit strategy for early investors, providing a low-disturbance path for orderly exits, which is crucial in a market with scarce quality assets[18][29] Market Performance - In the week of December 6 to December 12, 2025, the A-share market saw a general increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.74%[31] - The CPO index experienced the highest weekly increase of 14.26%, with a year-to-date increase of 183.30%[34] Key Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as smart vehicles (e.g., Hu Guang Co., Rui Hu Mould, Xin Quan Co., and Xin Dong Lian Ke) and high-end manufacturing (e.g., Ao Pu Te, Qing Niao Fire Protection, and Lei Te Optoelectronics) for potential investment opportunities[36]

Core Viewpoint - JD Industrial has successfully listed on the Hong Kong main board, with an initial share price of HKD 14.1, but has seen a decline of 7.8% to HKD 13, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 34.938 billion [2][3]. Company Overview - JD Industrial, established in October 2018 as a subsidiary of JD Group, focuses on industrial supply chain technology and services, primarily in MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) procurement [5][4]. - The company has transitioned from a loss of RMB 1.3 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 480 million in 2023, with projected net profits of RMB 7.6 billion in 2024 [13][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for JD Industrial from 2022 to 2024 are RMB 141 billion, RMB 173 billion, and RMB 204 billion respectively, with a revenue growth rate of 18.91% in the first half of 2025 [11][12]. - The gross profit margin has remained relatively stable but low, at 18.0%, 16.1%, and 16.2% over the reporting periods, primarily due to over 90% of revenue coming from product sales with low margins [15][16]. Market Position and Competition - JD Industrial holds a 4.1% market share in the MRO procurement service sector, making it the largest provider in China, but faces intense competition from companies like Zhenkunhang and US-based GSI [7][19]. - The MRO procurement service market in China is projected to grow from RMB 2.7 trillion in 2019 to RMB 3.7 trillion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential for JD Industrial [19]. Strategic Plans - Post-IPO, JD Industrial plans to allocate 25% of the raised funds for international expansion, aligning with JD Group's global ambitions [4][21]. - The company aims to leverage its existing logistics and supply chain capabilities to enhance its service offerings in international markets, particularly as it follows Chinese manufacturing clients abroad [21]. Ownership Structure - JD Group holds approximately 78.84% of JD Industrial, with founder Liu Qiangdong controlling about 83% of the voting rights, ensuring strategic alignment between the two entities [7][18].

Core Insights - JD Industrial has successfully transitioned from a unicorn to a publicly listed company, marking a significant milestone in its development and establishing a benchmark for capitalizing on industrial digital transformation under the "new quality productivity" policy direction [1] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency in the industrial sector through technology, addressing pain points in traditional supply chains [1][2] - JD Industrial's listing reflects market recognition of its industry position and the potential of the industrial digitalization sector [2] Business Overview - JD Industrial has built a service network covering 80 product categories and over 81.1 million SKUs, serving more than 11,000 core industrial enterprises and millions of SMEs, including around 60% of China's top 500 companies [2][3] - The company’s revenue growth is driven by its "Taipu" integrated supply chain solution, which has shown significant performance improvements across various industries [3][6] Financial Performance - From 2023 to 2024, JD Industrial's net profit is projected to increase from 4.799 million to 762 million, with a 54.96% year-on-year growth expected in the first half of 2025 [3] - Revenue from general MRO products is expected to rise from 9.4 billion to 11.1 billion, while professional MRO and BOM product revenues are also anticipated to grow significantly [6] Market Position - JD Industrial holds a 4.1% market share in the industrial supply chain technology and services market, leading the industry but facing competition from specialized platforms and comprehensive e-commerce players [4] - The industrial supply chain market is highly fragmented, with the top 10 companies accounting for only 1.5% of the market [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched the JoyIndustrial industrial supply chain model and initiated the "Intelligent Empowerment of Thousands of Industries, Trillion Cost Reduction" campaign, targeting a significant reduction in supply chain costs [7][8] - JD Industrial's dual-driven strategy combines industrial models with supply chain applications to enhance operational efficiency and address long-standing challenges in the sector [8] Global Expansion - JD Industrial is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has established a presence in countries like Brazil, Thailand, and Malaysia [9][10] - The company aims to build a resilient global supply chain network, focusing on localizing capabilities while ensuring effective collaboration across its operations [10]

Core Viewpoint - JD Industrial Technology (京东工业) has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking it as the sixth company under Liu Qiangdong's leadership to enter the capital market, with an opening price of HKD 12.73, reflecting a 9.72% drop and a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 34.08 billion [1]. Company Overview - JD Industrial is a provider of industrial supply chain technology and services, focusing on digital transformation to help clients ensure supply, reduce costs, enhance efficiency, and maintain compliance [1]. - The company is projected to become the largest service provider in China's industrial supply chain technology and services market, with a market share of 4.1% based on transaction volume in 2024 [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for JD Industrial is expected to grow from CNY 141.35 billion in 2022 to CNY 203.98 billion in 2024, with net profits transitioning from a loss of CNY 12.69 billion in 2022 to a profit of CNY 7.62 billion in 2024 [2]. - For the first eight months ending August 31, 2025, the company recorded total revenue of CNY 141 billion, representing an 18.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. Shareholding Structure - Prior to the IPO, JD.com, through its subsidiaries, held approximately 78.84% of JD Industrial's issued share capital [4][6]. - Following the global offering and adjustments, JD.com is expected to control about 72.34% of the issued share capital of JD Industrial [6]. - Liu Qiangdong has been granted a 3.68% equity stake in recognition of his contributions to the company [5]. Governance and Control - Liu Qiangdong controls approximately 72.4% of JD.com’s total voting rights, which includes shares held by various entities associated with him [7]. - The company will continue to operate as a subsidiary of JD.com post-listing, with a governance structure that includes JD.com and its associated entities as the controlling shareholders [8].

Core Insights - China is leading the global industrial supply chain market with a market size of 11.4 trillion yuan, but faces systemic issues of inefficiency and lack of strength in its industrial supply chain [2] - The digital penetration rate of China's industrial supply chain is projected to rise from 6.2% in 2024 to 8.2% by 2029, which is expected to drive rapid growth in the industrial supply chain technology and service market, potentially exceeding one trillion yuan by 2029 [2] - JD Industrial aims to enhance operational efficiency in the industrial world through technology, positioning itself as a leader in the transformation driven by "Artificial Intelligence+" and new industrialization [2][3] Company Overview - JD Industrial originated from JD Group's enterprise business and became an independent unit in 2017, focusing on empowering industrial supply chains with its digital supply chain technology [4] - The company has developed a unique integrated supply chain solution that combines digital and physical aspects, enhancing customer experience and driving cost reduction [4] - JD Industrial's "Tai Pu" solution aims to optimize internal supply chains for enterprises, helping them save 10% to 30% on procurement costs through full-link digitalization [5] Technological Innovations - JD Industrial has created the Joy Industrial model, which addresses long-standing pain points in the industrial supply chain, such as data silos and management complexities [7][9] - The model leverages over 81.1 million industrial SKU data and insights from more than 40 industry practices, providing deep industry understanding and serving over 10,000 key industrial enterprises [9] - The company is also developing intelligent agents for various applications, significantly improving efficiency and reducing management costs [10] Market Response - JD Industrial's shares were oversubscribed by approximately 60.25 times in the Hong Kong public offering, indicating strong investor confidence [3] - The company aims to assist the Chinese industrial sector in achieving a "trillion yuan" cost reduction over the next five years through targeted industry solutions [11] Future Directions - JD Industrial is expanding its services internationally, providing "accompanying overseas" services to over 100 enterprises across various countries [12] - The company offers multiple supply chain solutions tailored to different stages of overseas operations, including a one-stop solution for cross-border goods [13][14] - The listing of JD Industrial marks a significant shift in the industrial supply chain's perception from a "cost center" to a "digital efficiency engine" [15][16]