中化新网讯 近日，北美咨询机构贝恩咨询发布的最新报告显示，尽管油气行业的整合仍在持续，其影 响辐射整个能源领域与宏观经济，但过去十年化石能源行业的并购活动并非广泛铺开，而是高度集中在 少数核心企业手中。 该报告指出，油气行业呈现"少数企业主导多数交易、创造核心价值"的格局，过去十年仅20家企业就贡 献了行业53%的并购交易总额，参与者不仅包括传统超级石油巨头，还涵盖戴蒙德巴克能源等独立企 业，以及ONEOK、能源传输等大型中游企业，这批非顶级巨头正不断蚕食市场，重塑行业格局。 频繁开展并购的企业还为股东带来了超额回报，过去十年每年至少完成一次并购的企业，股东回报较未 开展并购的企业高出130%，这一差距较十年前扩大了一倍多。究其原因，并购能帮助企业实现规模效 应，通过运营效率提升和基础设施整合降低单位成本，在油价自2022年高点回落的背景下，这一成本优 势尤为关键。 不过，针对未来并购趋势，北美咨询机构认为，受需求格局变化影响，油价波动加剧，并购热潮或将降 温并重新调整方向。安永分析师赫伯·利森表示，供需、价格、关税及地缘政治的持续不确定性，让运 营效率和资本纪律成为企业核心竞争力，唯有快速适应、战略投资并高 ...

Key Takeaways VNOM posted Q4 EPS of 31 cents, beating estimates, though down from 42 cents a year ago.VNOM's output jumped to 12,328 MBoe, driven by sharp gains in oil, gas and NGL volumes.Viper Energy logged a $408M non-cash impairment and saw realized prices decrease across commodities.Viper Energy Inc. (VNOM) reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 31 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents. The bottom line, however, declined from the year-ago level of 42 cent ...

Roth Capital raised the firm’s price target on Diamondback Energy (FANG) to $180 from $164 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the company’s Q4 report and Q1 production guidance. While the firm is lowering its 2026 cash flow per share estimate by 2% on higher costs, it is raising its price target by 10% on higher oil prices and including its dividend, the analyst tells investors. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See ...

会议焦点：是否从4月起恢复"小幅增产" 彭博援引代表称，OPEC+由Saudi Arabia与Russia主导，计划在周日的视频会议上评估4月政策，但截至目前尚未就路线达成一致。 OPEC+本周日将召开视频会议审议4月产量政策，多位代表预计该组织将恢复"温和、小步"的增产节奏，在需求韧性与油价走强的背景下，逐步 向市场释放更多供应。 据彭博，多名不愿具名的OPEC+代表称，尽管会议前最终行动方案尚未敲定，但他们预期4月将重新启动一系列小幅增产。市场关注点在于，增 产是否会削弱近期油价涨势，或仅以有限增量平衡供需。 当前油价表现与"供给过剩"预期形成反差。代表们指出，在广泛预期今年将出现供应盈余的情况下，油价仍累计上涨约17%，这提高了OPEC+恢 复增产的操作空间。 不过，不确定性仍在上升。一位官员表示，增产"可能发生"，但决定仍不明朗，因为美国与伊朗之间冲突风险升级，为前景蒙上阴影，可能放大 油价波动。消息公布后，布油价格维持在70美元/桶附近。 这一量级意味着，即便增产落地，其对短期供需的影响更偏"校准"而非"转向"，市场仍将把注意力放在后续是否持续加量以及节奏快慢上。 油价为何走强：需求韧性、地缘风险与 ...

据因谈判不公开而要求匿名的代表称，这个由沙特和俄罗斯主导的产油国联盟在上周日举行视频会议之前，尚未敲定最终的行动方案。8个欧佩克+产油国 ——沙特、俄罗斯、阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦、科威特、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和阿曼将于3月1日举行会议。 一些欧佩克+代表透露，预计该组织将在本周末的会议上就恢复小幅增产达成一致，以结束三个月的增产暂停期。该组织正为夏季需求高峰做准备，而美国 与欧佩克成员国伊朗之间的紧张关系也推高了油价。 周三，油价徘徊在七个月高点附近，因美伊军事冲突可能扰乱供应的威胁持续令投资者担忧，双方定于周四举行会谈。IG市场分析师Tony Sycamore在报告 中指出："特朗普警告称，若不能达成协议将有'极其不好的后果'。伊朗的让步能否满足美国'零浓缩'的红线要求仍有待观察。" 美国页岩油巨头戴蒙德巴克能源公司（Diamondback Energy）周一表示，所谓的"供应过剩浪潮"正在被进一步推迟。这一观点在次日得到了全球最大油田服 务提供商之一贝克休斯的响应。 尽管市场普遍预期会出现供应过剩，但石油需求依然坚挺，油价已上涨约17%。鉴于此，三位官员表示，欧佩克+可能会考虑在4月份将石油日产量提高13.7 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一些欧佩克+代表表示，他们预计该组织在本周末举行会议审查4月份政策时，将同 意恢复适度增产。 据不愿具名的代表透露，由沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯领导的该组织在周日的视频会议召开前尚未确定最终行 动方案。 一些分析师表示，欧佩克+可能会每日增加13.7万桶产量，这与去年年底实施的微幅增产幅度一致。 虽然知名预测机构曾警告称今年将出现严重的供应过剩，但到目前为止，这一预期尚未对价格产生压制 ——部分原因是地缘政治风险不断升级，同时也受到从北美到哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯等一系列产出中断的 影响。 美国页岩油巨头 DiamondbackEnergyInc. 周一表示，"供应过剩浪潮"正在被进一步推迟。全球最大的油 田服务提供商之一贝克休斯公司在次日也表达了同样的观点。 尽管市场普遍预期供应过剩，但石油需求表现强劲，且价格已上涨约17%。因此，三名官员表示，他们 预计4月份将恢复一系列的小幅增产。另一名官员称这存在可能，但决策尚不明确，因为美国与伊朗之 间日益升级的冲突风险给前景蒙上了阴影。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, Viper Energy achieved over $8 billion in mineral acquisitions and significant growth in both absolute and per share metrics, with a nearly 2.5 times increase in Permian Basin acreage and a 7% increase in oil production per share year-over-year [4][5] - The company reported a pro forma net debt of approximately $1.6 billion, representing just over 1 turn of leverage after fully repaying a $500 million term loan and outstanding revolver balance [5][6] - The board approved a 15% increase in the base dividend, which now represents about 50% of estimated 2026 free cash flow at $50 WTI, and is fully covered below $30 WTI [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Viper Energy's relationship with Diamondback Energy remains strategic, supporting development across their Permian acreage, which is characterized by strong activity levels [4][5] - The company has initiated average daily production guidance for 2026, implying mid-single digit organic production growth from the Q4 2025 exit rate [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has not observed a slowdown in third-party activity, capturing about 50% of all third-party operations across the entire basin, supported by major players in the industry [19][20] - The guidance for production growth is based on existing DUCs and permits, with expectations for strong third-party activity to continue [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Viper Energy is focused on generating strong free cash flow, delivering attractive shareholder returns, and pursuing accretive Permian consolidation opportunities [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of mineral ownership, which allows it to benefit from operators' innovations without incurring capital risk [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to return upwards of 100% of cash available for distribution while maintaining differentiated growth in per share metrics [7][8] - The outlook for the Permian Basin remains positive, with expectations for production growth and continued activity from major operators [78][79] Other Important Information - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through automation and AI to manage a large number of leases and production data effectively [68] - Viper Energy is positioned to explore new development areas as gas takeaway improves, which could enhance lease bonus income [66] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Barnett and Viper's ownership - Management highlighted the benefits of mineral ownership and the ongoing leasing program, with about 10%-15% of potential acreage leased in the Midland Basin [10][11] Question: Return of capital strategy - The board's decision to increase the base dividend reflects confidence in the company's cash-generating ability, with a focus on maintaining flexibility in capital allocation [14][15] Question: Third-party activity outlook - Management confirmed strong third-party activity, with no significant slowdown observed, and emphasized the importance of acquiring high-quality royalty interests [19][20] Question: M&A environment and royalty assets - Management noted a lack of large deals recently, with a focus on integrating previous acquisitions and being ready for future opportunities as market conditions improve [27][28] Question: 2026 oil guidance and visibility - The wide guidance range reflects limited visibility on future activity, with confidence in the first half of the year but uncertainty in the second half [38][40] Question: Lease bonus income outlook - Management indicated that lease bonus income could remain similar in 2026, driven by proactive management and the larger asset base [66][68] Question: Oil cut trends - The decrease in oil cut from mid-50s to low 50s is attributed to various factors, including improved gas system efficiency and the overall performance of the basin [69] Question: Share repurchase strategy - Management discussed the flexibility in capital allocation, balancing between distributions and share repurchases, particularly in light of market conditions [75][76]

Group 1: Software Stocks Performance - Major indices were boosted by significant increases in software-related stocks, with Salesforce and ServiceNow both rising by 3% and the iShares Expanded Tech – Software Sector ETF (IGV) gaining 2%, although it remains over 30% lower than its 52-week peak [1] - Retail clients are cautious and waiting for new AI product announcements, interpreting news about Anthropic as competition for legacy applications, which has contributed to a less aggressive market upturn [2] Group 2: Earnings Season Insights - Home Depot exceeded expectations for its fourth quarter, reporting better EPS and revenue, leading to a 2.7% increase in its stock [3] - Keysight Technologies experienced a significant stock surge of 15% after reporting better earnings per share and revenue, while Hims & Hers Health's stock fell nearly 7% due to lower than expected first quarter revenue guidance [4] - Diamondback Energy's stock declined by 3% following the release of lower than expected adjusted earnings [4] Group 3: Economic Concerns - The 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. has raised concerns about its impact on other economies, with speculation that President Trump may increase the tariff to 15%, leading to a risk-averse stance among investors [5]

Core Insights - Microsoft reported a significant increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) of $29.88 billion for Q2 FY2026, marking an 89% year-over-year increase from $15.80 billion, raising investor concerns about the pace and payoff of its AI infrastructure investments [1] - The total CapEx over the last four quarters reached $83.09 billion, exceeding the previously stated $80 billion commitment for AI infrastructure, indicating a structural shift in spending patterns [1] - Despite strong revenue growth of 17% year-over-year to $81.27 billion, and a notable increase in Azure and Microsoft Cloud services, the stock price fell 14.6% post-earnings announcement, reflecting investor skepticism about the sustainability of growth amid rising expenditures [1] Financial Performance - Microsoft’s operating cash flow surged 60% to $35.76 billion, but free cash flow decreased by 9.3% to $5.88 billion due to high CapEx consumption [1] - Non-GAAP EPS was reported at $4.14, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.91, while the commercial remaining performance obligation increased by 110% to $625 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [1] - The stock price declined from $452.04 to $385.83, significantly below its 200-day moving average of $486.88, highlighting market concerns about the effectiveness of the CapEx strategy [1] Market Reaction and Analyst Sentiment - Despite the strong earnings report, the market reacted negatively, with Microsoft shares experiencing a sharp decline, contrasting with the overall market performance [1] - Analyst sentiment remains largely positive, with 57 out of 58 analysts maintaining a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and a consensus target price of $596, although prediction markets suggest only a 7% probability of the stock closing above $405 by month-end [1] - The upcoming Q3 FY2026 earnings report will be critical for assessing whether Azure growth and revenue from AI-linked services can offset the drag on free cash flow caused by high CapEx [1]

Diamondback Energy posted $5.9 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2025, raised its base dividend by 5%, and outlined a flat production plan for 2026 as it prioritizes capital discipline, buybacks, and balance sheet repair. Midland-based Diamondback Energy reported fourth-quarter 2025 oil production of 512,800 barrels per day, capping a year in which the Permian pure-play averaged 497,200 bpd of oil and 921,000 boe/d overall. For the full year, the company generated $8.8 billion in operating cash flo ...