证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 25Q3 险企偿付能力报告传递了哪些信息？ —基于《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》的分析 张一帆 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年 12 月 19 日，为提升保险公司资产负债管理能力，加强保险业资产负债监 管，国家金融监督管理总局发布关于《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见 稿）》（以下简称《办法》），拟进一步完善保险公司资产负债管理监管要求。此 《办法》主要有五大变化：一是进行制度整合；二是健全组织框架；三是明确监管 指标；四是优化指标计算口径；五是完善监管措施。 《办法》强化期限、成本、流动性三大匹配，引导保险公司长期经营，培养耐心资 本。对于财险公司，沉淀资金覆盖率指标旨在防止以短期业务为主的财险公司将大 量短期资金做长期投资，影响保险负债偿还；对于人身险公司，相比于修正久期， 有效久期考虑了保险公司部分资产的含权因素、分红利率和万能结算利率的可调节 因素等对预期现金流的影响，能够更为准确地衡量保 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3][7]. Core Insights - The report discusses the release of the draft "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures" by the National Financial Regulatory Administration on December 19, 2025, aimed at enhancing asset-liability management capabilities and regulatory oversight in the insurance sector [3]. - The draft sets multiple regulatory and monitoring indicators for life and property insurance companies, including effective duration gap, comprehensive investment income coverage ratio, and reserved funds coverage ratio, which are expected to help control interest spread and duration gap risks [3][6]. - The report anticipates that listed insurance companies will find it relatively easy to meet the requirements outlined in the draft due to their established asset-liability management systems and the leniency in the calculation of the indicators [5][6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The draft is linked to the upcoming implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, which will significantly change the asset classification methods for insurance companies [6]. - The draft includes specific regulatory requirements, such as an effective duration gap within ±5 years and a comprehensive investment income coverage ratio of no less than 100% for life insurance companies [6]. Industry Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the insurance industry, citing recent fluctuations in interest rates that may alleviate interest spread risks and the potential for good growth in new business value (NBV) for major listed companies in 2026 [7]. - Recommendations include companies like China Life, which has a strong individual insurance team, China Ping An, which is expected to see high growth in its bancassurance channel, and China Pacific Insurance, which benefits from policy support in both auto and non-auto insurance sectors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" by the National Financial Supervision and Administration, which aims to systematically regulate asset-liability management for insurance companies in the context of the new accounting standards to be fully implemented by 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations require insurance companies to establish independent asset-liability management departments to ensure accountability and independence in their operations [1]. - A clear regulatory and monitoring indicator system has been established, setting minimum regulatory standards for property and life insurance companies, with key indicators' evaluation periods extended to 3-5 years to promote long-term stable operations in the industry [1]. Impact on Insurance Companies - Currently, most major listed insurance companies have effective duration gaps that are either within or close to the regulatory requirements, indicating that the new regulations are unlikely to significantly impact existing equity asset allocation strategies [1]. Market Outlook - The non-bank sector remains undervalued, and there are optimistic views on the potential for both valuation and performance increases in brokerage firms due to reforms in the investment sector [1]. - The insurance sector is seen as having investment opportunities due to expected valuation increases driven by stabilized interest rates [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" aimed at comprehensively regulating the asset-liability management system of insurance companies, emphasizing the need for long-term stable operations and maintaining a "buy" rating for the industry [1][5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The new measures require insurance companies to establish a governance structure where the board of directors holds ultimate responsibility, with senior management leading directly and a dedicated asset-liability management department coordinating efforts [3]. - The measures specify policies and procedures for asset-liability management, including requirements for asset and liability analysis, product pricing management, asset allocation policies, and stress testing [3]. Regulatory and Monitoring Indicators - Regulatory indicators set minimum standards for asset-liability management, including coverage ratios for property insurance companies and effective duration gaps for life insurance companies [3]. - Monitoring indicators are designed to identify and warn against asset-liability mismatch risks, enhancing risk management levels [3]. Impact on Industry - The introduction of these measures is expected to benefit leading insurance companies that comply with stricter asset-liability management requirements, particularly in a declining interest rate environment and amidst accounting standard changes [4]. - The measures promote long-term stable operations by optimizing the calculation of indicators over a 3-5 year period, aligning with the regulatory focus on asset-liability matching [4].

Core Viewpoint - The new regulatory framework for asset-liability management in the insurance industry aims to enhance risk management and ensure stable operations, responding to changes in interest rates, product structures, and accounting standards [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Revising Regulations - The revision responds to the requirement of the "National Ten Articles" to strengthen asset-liability linkage supervision [1]. - It promotes insurance companies to enhance their asset-liability management [1]. - The new regulations align with the implementation of new accounting standards by 2026, adjusting the metrics for asset-liability matching [1]. Group 2: Changes Compared to Current Rules - The new draft consolidates previous scattered regulatory requirements, providing comprehensive norms for governance, responsibility allocation, and management procedures [2]. - It specifies regulatory indicators and emphasizes long-term assessment [2]. Group 3: Quantitative Management Indicators - The new regulations include two types of indicators: regulatory indicators (3 for property insurance, 4 for life insurance) and monitoring indicators (3 for property insurance, 7 for life insurance) [3]. - Regulatory indicators for property insurance include: 1. Coverage ratio of settled funds = settled funds / long-term assets 2. Income coverage ratio = (insurance service income + comprehensive investment income) / total costs 3. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must be above 100% [3]. - Regulatory indicators for life insurance include: 1. Effective duration gap = effective duration of cash inflows - effective duration of cash outflows, with a required range of [-5, 5] 2. Comprehensive investment income coverage ratio = comprehensive investment income / liability funding cost 3. Net investment income coverage ratio = net investment income / guaranteed liability cost 4. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must be above 100% [3]. - The calculation metrics have been optimized, adjusting for macroeconomic changes and extending the evaluation period for cost-benefit indicators to 3-5 years [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The industry is entering a new cycle with improvements in both the liability and asset sides, indicating significant upward valuation potential [5]. - Market demand remains strong, with a reduction in preset interest rates and a shift towards dividend insurance expected to optimize liability costs [5]. - The recent decline in the ten-year government bond yield to approximately 1.83% is anticipated to alleviate pressure on new fixed-income investment returns as the domestic economy recovers [5]. - The current under-allocation of public funds in insurance stocks suggests that the insurance sector is undervalued, with projected valuations for December 19, 2025, at 0.65-0.95 times PEV and 1.27-2.17 times PB, which are historically low [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has developed the "Measures for Asset-Liability Management of Insurance Companies (Draft for Comments)" to enhance asset-liability management capabilities and strengthen regulatory oversight in the insurance industry, with public consultation starting on December 19, 2025 [1] Group 1: Objectives and Principles - The draft measures aim to implement the spirit of the State Council's opinions on strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development in the insurance industry [1] - The measures set forth goals and principles for asset-liability management, standardizing governance systems, policies, and procedures [1] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The draft specifies requirements for model systems and data management, establishes regulatory and monitoring indicators, and improves related regulatory measures [1] - The introduction of these measures is expected to guide insurance companies in adopting a prudent operational philosophy and strengthen the effective linkage between assets and liabilities [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - The measures aim to prevent asset-liability mismatch risks and maintain the healthy and sustainable development of the insurance industry [1] - Additionally, the draft encourages insurance companies to enhance their performance evaluation systems and extend the evaluation period of indicators to better serve the high-quality development of the real economy [1] Group 4: Next Steps - The Financial Regulatory Bureau will revise and finalize the measures based on public feedback and industry testing results before implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new regulatory framework for insurance asset-liability management aims to enhance risk management and ensure stable operations within the industry, responding to changes in the interest rate environment, product structure, and accounting standards [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Revising Regulations - The revision responds to the requirement of the third insurance "National Ten Articles" to strengthen asset-liability linkage supervision [1] - It promotes insurance companies to enhance their asset-liability management [1] - The new regulations align with the implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, adjusting the asset-liability matching indicators [1] Group 2: Changes Compared to Current Rules - The new draft consolidates previously scattered regulatory requirements, providing comprehensive norms for governance systems, responsibility allocation, and management procedures [2] - It specifies regulatory indicators and emphasizes long-term assessment and evaluation [2] Group 3: Quantitative Management Indicators - The new regulations include two types of indicators: regulatory indicators (3 for property insurance, 4 for life insurance) and monitoring indicators (3 for property insurance, 7 for life insurance) [3] - Regulatory indicators for property insurance include: 1. Coverage ratio of settled funds = settled funds / medium to long-term assets 2. Income coverage ratio = (insurance service income + comprehensive investment income) / comprehensive costs 3. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must not be below 100% [3] - Regulatory indicators for life insurance include: 1. Effective duration gap = effective duration of cash inflows - effective duration of cash outflows, with a required range of [-5, 5] 2. Comprehensive investment income coverage ratio = comprehensive investment income / liability funding cost 3. Net investment income coverage ratio = net investment income / liability guarantee cost 4. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios, all must not be below 100% [3] - The calculation methods for these indicators have been optimized, with adjustments based on macroeconomic changes and an extended evaluation period of 3-5 years to guide long-term operations [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The industry is entering a new cycle with improvements in both the liability and asset sides, indicating significant upward valuation potential [5] - Market demand remains strong, with a reduction in preset interest rates and a shift towards dividend insurance expected to optimize liability costs [5] - The recent decline in the yield of 10-year government bonds to approximately 1.83% is anticipated to alleviate pressure on new fixed-income investment yields for insurance companies as the domestic economy recovers [5] - Current public fund holdings in insurance stocks are under-allocated, with the insurance sector's valuation projected at 0.65-0.95 times PEV and 1.27-2.17 times PB by December 19, 2025, indicating historical low valuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the introduction of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" by the Financial Regulatory Bureau to enhance asset-liability management capabilities and regulatory oversight in the insurance industry [5][7]. Group 1: Background - Prior to 2018, the asset-liability management system for insurance companies was fragmented and lacked specific "hard constraints" [6]. - In March 2018, the former Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Insurance Asset-Liability Management Regulatory Rules," marking the initial establishment of a regulatory framework tailored to the domestic insurance industry [6]. - Recent changes in the external environment and internal conditions of the insurance industry, particularly the implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, necessitate a more robust asset-liability management approach [7]. Group 2: Content - The draft includes five main aspects: defining asset-liability management goals and principles, standardizing governance structures, clarifying policies and procedures, establishing regulatory and monitoring indicators, and enhancing supervision [8]. - Regulatory indicators for property insurance companies include: 1. Coverage ratio of settled funds (minimum standard: 100%) 2. Income coverage ratio (minimum standard: 100%) 3. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios (minimum standard: 100%) [9]. - For life insurance companies, regulatory indicators include: 1. Effective duration gap (maximum threshold: 5 years) 2. Comprehensive investment income coverage ratio (minimum standard: 100%) 3. Net investment income coverage ratio (minimum standard: 100%) 4. Liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios (minimum standard: 100%) [9]. - The draft optimizes the calculation methods for these indicators to reflect macroeconomic changes and encourages long-term operations by extending the evaluation period for cost-income indicators to 3-5 years [9]. Group 3: Impact - The draft aims to address issues such as disconnection in asset-liability management, unclear policies, and insufficient regulatory measures, thereby filling institutional gaps [10]. - By quantifying regulatory indicators and setting stress scenarios, the draft reflects the true economic value and risk levels of insurance companies [10]. - The measures are expected to enhance the resilience of insurance companies in long-term operations, particularly in managing the matching of assets and liabilities amid a declining interest rate environment [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" marks a transition from a "temporary measure" to a "comprehensive regulation" phase in China's insurance industry, aiming to integrate previously fragmented regulatory requirements into a more rigid and long-term value-oriented framework [2][10] - The new measures are expected to drive the insurance industry from scale-driven growth to high-quality development, focusing on risk prevention and sustainable growth, which will significantly impact industry competition, business models, and valuation logic [2][10] - The core of asset-liability management is to establish a robust long-term system that can withstand economic and interest rate cycles, with leading companies aiming to exceed compliance requirements to support strategic implementation and achieve high-quality development [8] Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The new measures establish a clear and comprehensive management system with defined responsibilities and indicators, requiring insurance companies to create an organizational structure that emphasizes accountability and independent asset-liability management departments [3] - The measures embed management requirements into the entire business cycle, enhancing asset-liability linkage in product development, pricing, and asset allocation, and shifting risk management from reactive to proactive [3] Regulatory Indicators and Thresholds - Compared to previous temporary measures, the new regulations introduce specific regulatory indicators and thresholds, including effective duration gap, comprehensive investment income coverage ratio, net investment income coverage ratio, and liquidity coverage ratio under stress scenarios [4] - These indicators will provide a standardized benchmark for regulatory evaluation, quantifying insurance companies' capabilities in duration matching, income realization, and liquidity reserves [4] Industry Impact - The implementation of the new measures is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, posing varied challenges to different types of entities. Leading insurance companies with established asset-liability management systems will face lower implementation costs, while smaller companies may need to undergo significant changes in product structure and investment strategies [6] - The new regulations coincide with the upcoming full implementation of new accounting standards in 2026, which will enhance the sensitivity of financial statements to interest rate fluctuations, reinforcing the need for effective interest rate risk management [7] Practical Implementation - Leading insurance companies are adopting a systematic framework for asset-liability management that adheres to principles of safety, profitability, and liquidity, ensuring effective communication between asset and liability sides from the product development stage [8][9] - A "dumbbell" investment strategy is being employed, balancing long-duration fixed income assets with equity and alternative investments, supported by a long-term assessment mechanism and proactive ecological layout [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" aims to comprehensively standardize the asset-liability management system of insurance companies, reinforcing the primary responsibility of companies and clarifying regulatory indicators to guide long-term stable operations [2][3]. - The introduction of the new measures is expected to enhance the asset-liability management framework, particularly under the backdrop of interest rate fluctuations and accounting standard reforms, benefiting leading insurance companies that align with stricter regulatory requirements [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The draft requires insurance companies to establish a governance structure for asset-liability management, with the board of directors ultimately responsible and senior management directly leading the efforts [4][5]. - It specifies the need for a professional department dedicated to asset-liability management, ensuring independence from business and investment management departments [4][7]. Management Policies and Procedures - The measures outline requirements for asset and liability analysis, product pricing management, asset allocation policies, and stress testing [4][5]. - Regulatory indicators include minimum standards for liquidity coverage ratios and effective duration gaps, with specific metrics for property and life insurance companies [9][10]. Monitoring and Risk Management - Monitoring indicators are established to identify and warn against asset-liability mismatch risks, enhancing risk management capabilities [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning asset-liability management with long-term operational goals, with a focus on achieving cost-revenue matching and liquidity matching [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the new measures will guide the industry towards long-term stable operations and optimize asset-liability matching, maintaining an "Overweight" stance on the industry [4][12]. - Recommended companies include China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, and China Life Insurance [4][12].