President Trump has been pretty high on Kevin Hasset really since June. They had a bunch of private meetings in June that my sources told me went really well. Um and then you know the process just uh you know petered out a little bit.There have been so many sort of foreign policy challenges that he's been dealing with that that the Fed search just took a little bit of a back seat. Um and so now it is cropping back up now that people are looking to Powell's term ending in 2026 and Hasset really is still the ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,069.20 per ounce on Monday, down 0.3% from Friday’s close of $4,079.50. The price of gold has remained below $4,100 since Nov. 19. The near-term interest-rate outlook continues to influence demand and pricing for the yellow metal. Traders currently predict a 73.5% chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-point in December, according to CME FedWatch. The chances increased after New York Fed President John Williams spoke last week, expressing support for another rate r ...

US stocks climbed on Friday to close a turbulent session in the green amid rising optimism for a December interest rate cut, while bitcoin (BTC-USD) kept tumbling amid a brutal stretch for cryptocurrencies. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed the day up right around 0.9% and 1%, respectively, after seesawing back and forth early in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained around 1.1%, or just shy of 500 points. US equities perked up early Frida ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a decline amid uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a significant reduction in the probability of a rate cut in December compared to a month ago [1][2]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Gold futures opened at $4,084.40 per ounce, down 0.2% from the previous close of $4,094.20 [1]. - The one-year gain for gold was reported at 63.4% as of last Friday [4]. - The price of gold has changed as follows: +0.6% week-over-week, -6.2% month-over-month, and +59.2% year-over-year [9]. Group 2: Economic Context - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, while employment data indicates a weakening labor market, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2]. - Analysts currently estimate a 44.6% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in December, a significant drop from 93.7% a month ago [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Lingering high interest rates can suppress gold demand, as gold does not yield interest [3]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include geopolitical events, central bank buying trends, inflation, interest rates, and mining production [13].

Core Insights - The stock market experienced a significant downturn, with the Dow falling 756 points, approximately 1.6%, after previously surpassing 48,000 for the first time [1] - The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 also saw declines of 2.5% and 1.7% respectively, indicating a broader market selloff beyond just technology stocks [1] - The selloff was particularly pronounced in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors, both down by 2.6% or more, while health care, energy, and consumer staples emerged as the leading sectors [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 756 points, marking a continuation of the selloff trend [1] - The Nasdaq Composite's decline of 2.5% reflects the ongoing challenges faced by tech stocks [1] - The S&P 500's drop of 1.7% indicates a widespread market reaction to the selloff [1] Sector Analysis - Technology and consumer discretionary sectors were notably affected, each experiencing declines of 2.6% or more [2] - In contrast, health care, energy, and consumer staples sectors showed resilience and were the leading performers in the market [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 GAAP net investment income and core NII was $6.1 million, or $0.263 per share, compared to Q2 GAAP and core NII of $6.6 million, or $0.282 per share, reflecting a decrease in earnings [4][18] - NAV per share at the end of Q3 was $11.41, representing a 3.6% decrease from the prior quarter [4][18] - The company reported a net decrease in net assets resulting from operations of $0.6 million [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross deployments in Q3 were $19.3 million, offset by repayments and sales of $50.5 million, resulting in net repayments of $31.2 million [8] - The weighted average effective yield on income-producing debt investments decreased to 11.6% as of the end of Q3, down from 11.9% in Q2 [9] - The weighted average effective yield on the overall portfolio also decreased slightly to 9.5% at the end of Q3, compared to approximately 9.8% at the end of Q2 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - M&A activity has not picked up significantly, although there has been a steady trickle of improvement [14] - In the mid-market, pricing for sponsor deals is in the SOFR 450-500 range, while lower mid-market sponsor deals are pricing in the 475-575 spread over SOFR [15][16] - Non-sponsor deals are generally pricing at SOFR plus 600 and above, indicating a significant pricing premium compared to sponsor deals [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has reset its quarterly distribution to $0.25 per share, representing an implied 8.8% annualized yield based on the company's ending NAV per share [5][21] - A share buyback program of up to $15 million has been approved due to the stock price discount relative to its book value [7][8] - The company continues to focus on the non-sponsor market, where there are better risk returns and less competition [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that recent results were disappointing due to interest rate cuts and pressure on market spreads [3] - The turnaround of troubled assets is expected to take at least 12-24 months, with ongoing efforts to optimize performance [32][34] - The board will evaluate the quarterly distribution based on core earnings power and other relevant factors [23] Other Important Information - The company recognized $1.8 million in net realized losses and approximately $4.9 million of net unrealized losses in Q3, totaling $6.7 million [11] - Non-accrual investments now represent 2.7% of the debt portfolio at fair value, an improvement from 4.9% in the prior quarter [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Understanding the new base dividend level of $0.25 per share - Management indicated that the new base dividend is set to be a long-term level based on interest rates and earnings power projections [27] Question: Details on the fee waiver reduction from 20% to 17.5% - The board agreed to waive the 2.5% amount for the next two quarters, with future discussions based on BDC performance [29] Question: Long-term expectations for fair value recovery from troubled assets - Management expects a significant period of time, at least 12-24 months, for troubled assets to recover, with ongoing management efforts [32][34] Question: Performance track record between sponsor and non-sponsor deals - Historically, non-sponsor deals have shown fewer defaults compared to sponsor deals, indicating stronger performance in the non-sponsor market [36] Question: Impact of competition on pricing in the mid-market - Pricing compression in the mid-market is attributed to larger players entering the market due to insufficient volume, affecting spreads [44]

来源：滚动播报 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，鉴于利率已被下调至接近"中性水平"，美联储应当谨慎行事。他指出，目前 利率仍对经济具有"一定的限制性"作用，但补充说："当我们逐步接近中性利率时，放慢脚步是合理 的。"杰斐逊周五表示，他支持上周美联储将利率下调25个基点的决定——这是2025年的第二次降息， 因为劳动力市场进一步降温的风险正在上升。他说，"这一步是合适的，因为我认为近期风险平衡已经 发生变化，就业方面的下行风险有所增加。"他并未表态是否支持在12月的下次会议上再次降息。杰斐 逊表示，现有数据表明，美国整体经济形势近几个月来变化不大。他形容，美国经济正在以"温和的步 伐"增长，就业市场则在"逐渐降温"。 ...

米兰在接受采访时表示，就业数据虽有回升，但规模依然有限，工资涨幅持续放缓，劳动力需求也明显 降温，不如周期性高点时期强劲。他认为，这些迹象表明当前利率"可能比现有水平更低才算合适"。 美联储理事米兰周三表示，10月美国私营部门就业数据"令人惊喜"，但他同时强调当前利率水平仍偏 高，未来应考虑进一步下调。 根据ADP Research Institute公布的数据，10月美国私营企业新增就业人数为42,000人，而前一个月的数 据已被修正为减少29,000人；媒体调查预期中值原本为新增30,000人，实际数据明显好于预期。 市场方面，米兰的讲话被视为增强年内继续降息概率的信号。一旦其观点在美联储内部获得更多支持， 利率预期将进一步调整，这可能推高债券价格、压低收益率，同时支撑科技股等利率敏感型资产走势。 但过度宽松同样可能扩大通胀风险敞口。 尽管就业数据略有回升，整体增速放缓、薪资降温，意味着美国劳动力市场可能正在从"卖方市场"转 向"买方市场"。若趋势持续，持续维持高利率的合理性将进一步下降，也为米兰主张提供更多论据。 米兰近期多次公开呼吁进一步降息，并在今年9月和10月美联储仅下调利率25个基点时投下反对票 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has narrowed its 2025 earnings forecast, now expecting earnings per share to be between $4.34 and $4.40, with net income projected to range between $262 million and $266 million [4][7] - Third quarter net income was $26.5 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $19.3 million, or $0.34, in the same period last year, reflecting a year-over-year increase [7][8] - Revenues for the third quarter increased by approximately $19.2 million from new rates and $1.4 million from continued customer growth [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating and maintenance expenses increased approximately 4.9% year over year, primarily due to higher labor costs and the decision to execute certain activities earlier than planned [8] - The Austin System Reinforcement Project was completed in the third quarter, boosting available winter peak capacity by approximately 25% [5][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company serves three states that produce over one-third of U.S. natural gas, with a strong commitment to economic growth and the use of natural gas for residential and commercial applications [4] - The company is actively pursuing growth opportunities in high-growth sectors such as data centers, advanced manufacturing, and utility-scale power generation [4][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging growth opportunities while maintaining customer affordability, as demonstrated by the completion of the Austin System Reinforcement Project [5][12] - The company is working on significant utility-scale power generation projects approximating 1.5 gigawatts of capacity across its three states [13][14] - The company aims to provide fast, cost-effective service through existing infrastructure, minimizing capital needs while enhancing system reliability [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the outlook for the rest of the year, citing strong year-to-date performance and the impact of Texas House Bill 4384 [4] - The management noted that the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could positively influence future earnings guidance [20][21] - The company remains committed to providing safe, reliable, and affordable natural gas to its 2.3 million customers [15] Other Important Information - The company plans to settle roughly $200 million of forward shares in December and defer approximately $25 million for year-end 2026 settlement [10] - The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.67 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook considering legislation and Fed cuts - Management indicated that recent Fed cuts have been earlier than expected and that they anticipate additional cuts in the coming years, which could positively impact earnings guidance [20][21] Question: Clarification on tightening of 2025 guidance range - Management explained that the tightening was due to additional operating and maintenance costs incurred from executing certain activities earlier than planned [22][23] Question: Growth rate above 6% and structural outlook - Management confirmed that the growth rate is structural in nature and expects to be above the high end of the previously outlined range for the duration of the five-year period [32][33] Question: Large load activity and investment opportunities - Management noted that large load projects are being pursued across all three states, leveraging existing systems to respond quickly to customer needs [34][35] Question: Impact of bringing services in-house on O&M costs - Management acknowledged that while there are upfront costs associated with insourcing, the long-term benefits are expected to outweigh these initial investments [39][40] Question: Capital expenditure plans for 2026 - Management indicated an upward trajectory for capital expenditures in 2026, with potential for more punctuated steps up in spending [42][43] Question: Benefits of Texas legislation on capital planning - Management stated that while the Texas legislation provides more opportunities, it will not alter the fundamental approach to capital allocation [55][56] Question: Other opportunities beyond line locating and watch and protect - Management confirmed that they are exploring additional opportunities to bring more services in-house, enhancing capabilities and efficiency [60][61]

香港金管局总裁余伟文表示，市场普遍认为美联储未来降息步伐仍有较大不确定性。一方面因关税措施 仍存有不少变数，另一方面是美国政府近期"停摆"，导致官方暂停计算及公布部分重要经济数据，或会 影响当局对就业和通胀情况的判断。 当日，香港三家发钞银行——渣打银行(香港)有限公司、中国银行(香港)有限公司、香港上海汇丰银行 有限公司均宣布下调港元最优惠利率0.125%。 房地产服务供应商"高力"的估价及咨询服务高级董事梁镇峰认为，息率下调能释放资金需求，带动市场 投资气氛；同时亦能缓解香港房地产发展商融资成本的压力，为整体楼市带来利好。(完) 中新社香港10月30日电 因应美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)当地时间29日将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点到3.75%至4%之间，香港金融管理局(金管局)30日下调基本利率25个基点至4.25%，即时生效。 ...