多重拐点共振，内外驱动发展 ——东方证券推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑：东方证券是上海国资旗下第二大券商，迎接内生驱动与外延整合 机遇。 ❑ 超预期点分析 1.超预期点：治理端董事会主导强化并打开外延整合想象空间；业务端资管修复 先行，自营固收结构对冲与权益再扩张接力，叠加历史风险敞口持续出清，数字 化转型机遇下迎接市场表现释放。 2）去年以来，并购重组逻辑预期的券商都有过阶段性领涨板块的表现，甚至单 日涨停的表现，东方证券若未来产生外延扩张预期，则期待其市场表现。 2.超预期驱动因素与机理 1）市场与板块层面：2025 年券商板块呈现盈利改善但股价滞涨特征，隐含的估 值修复弹性被后移；若风险偏好与成交活跃度回升，券商作为高 β 板块更容易出 现戴维斯双击。 2）政策层面：监管鼓励松绑优质券商杠杆、业务创新与提升行业高质量发展， 同时并购重组规则持续优化，行业集中度依托成功案例提升路径更清晰，头部与 优质券商有望受益于杠杆与创新边际放松的政策周期。 3）个股层面：①治理结构拐点：以龚德雄为首的高管更迭推动董事会中心化与 专业化决策进一步强化，经营效率与资本运用有望提升。②外延整合预期差：公 司战略目标指向 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 240 号 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 张智珑 郭怡萍 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 马丽明 汪炜 聂孟依 张弛 整理记录：张智珑 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业公司 1.1 证券行业（张智珑） 市场回顾：本周非银和券商指数领涨，估值仍处于低位 根据 Wind 数据，本周（12.15-12.19）上证指数上涨 0.03%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.3%，创 业板指下跌 2.3%。申万非银金融指数上涨 2.9%，涨跌幅排名 2/31，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.2pct；其中，券商指数上涨 1%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.3pct。券商指数 PB 为 1.38x，近两周 小幅回升，目前处于近十年的 35%分位数。 本周券商板块涨幅排名前 5 的券商分别是：东兴证券（+9.6%）、华泰证券（+3.5%）、 广发证券（+3.3%）、国信证券（+3%）、中金公司（+3%）。 跌幅最大的 5 家券商分别是：红塔证券（-1.4%）、中泰证券（-1.6%）、华林证券（- 2.5%）、首创证券（-3%）、国联民生（-3.5%）。 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 证券行业周报 市场交投保持活跃，关注券商估值修复机会 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3 -8 -20 绝对收益 -4 -5 -3 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2024/12/12 2025/2/12 2025/4/12 2025/6/12 2025/8/12 2025/10/12 2025/12/12 沪深300 证券Ⅱ(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 市场回顾：本周券商指数跑赢沪深 300，头部大型券商领涨 相关研究： | 1.《行业周报：券商估值持续回落， | | --- | | 关注配置价值》 2025.12.7 | 根据 Wind 数据，本周（12.8-12.12）上证指数下跌 0.3%，沪深 300 指数下 跌 0.1% ...

消息面上，金融监管委员会发布对调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知。国泰海通指出，金监总局下 调长期持有的沪深300、中证红利低波成分股及部分科创板股票风险因子，在不放松偿付能力约束的前 提下，降低险资配置优质权益资产的资本占用，强化"长期持有享受资本优惠"的导向。本次释放的最低 资本规模有限但方向明确，有利于险资适度提升权益占比、延长持仓久期。叠加"新增保费约30%入 市"的中长期逻辑，我们仍看好险资在未来几年持续为权益市场提供增量。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股涨幅扩大，截至发稿，中国银河(06881)涨5.17%，报10.57港元；国泰海 通(02611)涨4.61%，报16.78港元；中信证券(06030)涨3.21%，报27.64港元；广发证券(01776)涨2.58%， 报17.49港元。 值得注意的是，证监会主席吴清表示对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间 和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率。海通证券研报分析指出，吴清主席提出的对优质机构"松绑"政策，其 核心在于推动证券行业经营逻辑从规模导向转向风险定价能力，从依赖牌照红利转向提升专业经营水 平。这一转变将显著利好优质头部券商 ...

监管层面将强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资本利用效 率；对中小机构、外资机构探索差异化监管政策，促进特色化发展；对问题机构依法从严监管。 在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴清发言时提到，行业机构需立足自身资源禀赋，从 价格竞争转向价值竞争。 头部机构应增强资源整合能力，力争形成若干家具有国际影响力的标杆机构；中小机构需聚焦细分领 域、特色业务与重点区域，深耕细作打造 "小而美" 的精品服务商。 港股中资券商板块： 华泰证券（601688）(06886)、广发证券（000776）(01776)、中国银河（601881）(06881)、国泰海通 (02611)、中金公司（601995）(03908)、中信证券（600030）（06030）、中信建投（601066）证券 (06066)、东方证券（600958）(03958)、光大证券（601788）(06178)、申万宏源（000166）(06806)、中 州证券(01375)、国联民生（601456）(01456)等。 国泰海通发布研报称，吴清主席致辞提出对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴清发言时提到，行业机构需立 足自身资源禀赋，从价格竞争转向价值竞争。 华泰证券(06886)、广发证券(01776)、中国银河(06881)、国泰海通(02611)、中金公司(03908)、中信证券 （06030）、中信建投证券(06066)、东方证券(03958)、光大证券(06178)、申万宏源(06806)、中州证券 (01375)、国联民生(01456)等。 头部机构应增强资源整合能力，力争形成若干家具有国际影响力的标杆机构；中小机构需聚焦细分领 域、特色业务与重点区域，深耕细作打造 "小而美" 的精品服务商。 国泰海通发布研报称，吴清主席致辞提出对优质机构适当"松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本 空间和杠杆限制。优化资本杠杆的背后本质在于推动行业经营从规模导向转向风险定价，从牌照红利转 向专业经营，预计券商未来将更重以专业性实现盈利，这是对于优质头部券商的重要利好，也是板块估 值修复的重要催化。 港股中资券商板块： 监管层面将强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资本利用效 率；对中小机构、外资机 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, with a recommendation to focus on strong insurance companies such as New China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Life Insurance H, and China Taiping [2][17] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector (Shenwan) index increased by 2.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.99 percentage points, while the insurance sector saw a significant rise of 5.08% [1][9] - The insurance sector's growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in long-term stock holding risk factors, expected strong performance in dividend insurance products, and improved global liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [2][16] - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a valuation correction, with a current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.36x, indicating potential for recovery in profitability and valuation [2][19] - The banking sector has underperformed, with a decline of 1.18%, and is currently undervalued with a PB ratio of 0.55x, suggesting room for future valuation improvement [3][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance index rose by 5.08%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.80 percentage points, driven by regulatory adjustments that lowered risk factors for long-term stock holdings [1][13] - The sector is expected to benefit from a favorable environment for dividend insurance products, with strong growth anticipated in the coming year [2][16] - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like New China Life Insurance and China Ping An, which are positioned for growth [17] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage index increased by 1.14%, with a current PB ratio of 1.36x, indicating a potential mismatch between profitability and valuation [2][19] - Regulatory changes are expected to enhance capital efficiency for leading brokerages, creating opportunities for investment in firms with strong fundamentals [2][18] - Recommended stocks include Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and Orient Securities, particularly those involved in mergers or restructuring [19] Banking Sector - The banking sector saw a decline of 1.18%, with a PB ratio of 0.55x, indicating that banks are currently undervalued [3][20] - Concerns about asset quality, particularly related to real estate and local government debt, have affected market perceptions, but there is potential for recovery as regulatory support continues [23][24] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in economically developed regions, such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank [20][24]

券商ETF（159842）跟踪中证全指证券公司指数。该指数选取中证全指样本股中至多50只证券公司行业 股票组成，以反映该行业股票的整体表现。 消息面上，证监会主席吴清在人民日报撰文称，营造更具吸引力的"长钱长投"制度环境。要继续积极创 造条件构建中长期资金"愿意来、留得住、发展得好"的市场环境，推动建立健全对各类中长期资金的长 周期考核机制，提高投资A股规模和比例。 广发证券认为，随着市场活跃度回升，经纪两融高增，泛自营贡献分化弹性，券商业绩高增但估值滞 涨。2026年随着慢牛预期改善、政策利好，行业ROE持续提升，alpha有望突出，催化机构资金增配与 估值弹性。证券行业景气度持续上行，春季躁动有望打开估值修复窗口期。 12月5日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，证券板块开盘小幅飘红。 热门ETF中，券商ETF（159842）截至发稿上涨0.09%，成分股中，中泰证券涨超1%，华泰证券、湘财 股份、东方财富、国泰海通、中信证券等股飘红。 资金流向方面，Wind数据显示，截至12月4日，券商ETF（159842）连续3日获资金净流入，累计净流 入额超1.5亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that with a significant amount of fixed deposits maturing next year, insurance is seen as a favorable option for low-risk investors seeking long-term wealth preservation and appreciation, with clearer growth expectations for liabilities [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a notable divergence between performance and valuation, with industry profits maintaining high growth while stock prices and valuations remain under pressure, leading to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.35, which is at the 33rd percentile over the past decade [1] - The report suggests that as brokerage mergers progress and international business layouts deepen, there is substantial room for performance recovery among undervalued leading brokerages, making them increasingly attractive for investment [1] Group 2 - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: (1) brokerage firms with third-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, particularly those with a PB of only 1.35x, such as Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities; (2) Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned well in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from venture capital in the gene therapy space; (3) multi-financial firms with impressive growth rates, particularly the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will continue to benefit from deepening connectivity and increased trading activity [2] - The new group health insurance in Shanghai, expected to launch in December, will include over 80 high-value innovative drugs, providing a significant opportunity for commercial health insurance products to cover innovative drug payments, potentially generating sales of 500 million to 1 billion yuan annually [3] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see a double-digit growth in new policy premiums, with new products expected to provide better value due to interest margin benefits, particularly through the bancassurance channel [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant positive movement in the securities sector, with the Southern Securities ETF (512900) rising by 0.75% and showing a year-to-date increase of 5% alongside a net inflow of 317 million yuan in the fourth quarter [1] - Three major brokerages, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, announced major asset restructuring, leading to their suspension from trading for up to 25 trading days [1] - Despite a divergence between brokerage performance and stock prices, the brokerage sector has shown strong earnings growth, with a 41.1% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 62.0% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters [1] Group 2 - The combined total assets of the three brokerages post-merger will reach 1.01 trillion yuan, positioning them as the fourth-largest brokerage in the industry and injecting expectations of "merger premiums" into the sector [1] - The Southern Securities ETF focuses on industry leaders and specialized brokerages, including internet brokerage leader East Money and comprehensive investment bank CITIC Securities, with a combined weight of 4.08% from CICC, Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities [1] - According to Zhonghang Securities, the average daily trading volume in the stock market has significantly increased year-on-year, and the margin financing balance has reached new highs, reinforcing the earnings certainty of the brokerage sector and suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [2]