高盛闭门会--2026 年 G10 利率展望：通缩缓解降低了久 期风险 20260110 摘要 在我们的宏观观点中存在通缩因素，预计年底将接近目标水平。目前环境下， 我们预测波动性不高。对于主要经济体 10 年期基准利率，我们预计美国利率 将横盘整理至 4.2%。尽管久期风险依然存在，今年（2026 年）财政风险和经 济增长前景略有改善。如果通胀走势保持相对可控，即便债券供给量大，也能 催生债券需求。因此，这是我们美国利率预测的重要考量因素之一。 我们倾向 于认为美国收益率曲线趋陡。如果劳动力市场数据出现任何走弱迹象——短期 内不会出现显著走弱——美联储始终存在加速降息风险。若出现此类疲软迹象， 美国收益率曲线小幅趋陡。此外，我们预计德国国债收益率会上升，因为德国 市场共识接近降息周期尾声，甚至可能进入加息周期，但当前经济预测 与多数经济体实际情况接近，政策利率预测略低于市场预期，预计通缩 过程将持续至 2026 年，美联储或再降息两次。 预计英国央行今年可能降息三次，美国降息两次，瑞典央行或加拿大央 行等经济体将维持政策不变，澳大利亚央行年底前可能加息一次，多数 市场年底实际利率水平将略低于当前水平。 日本 ...

日本超长期国债收益率自10月底以来持续上扬，原因是日本首相高市早苗的经济刺激计划加剧了市场对 日本公共财政受损的担忧。12月16日，日本国会批准了2025财年(2025年4月至2026年3月)补充预算案， 财政支出规模高达18.3万亿日元，号称疫情后最大规模。这一预算案以应对物价上涨、促进经济增长为 名，其中的11.7万亿日元将通过新发行国债来筹措。 与此同时，周五，日本政府在阁僚会议上敲定了2026财年预算，一般会计预算总额约为122.3092万亿日 元。这一规模超过2025财年的约115万亿日元，刷新历史最高纪录。 在当前债务高企且日本央行正推进加息的情况下，日本政府仍施行扩张性财政政策引发了对财政可持续 性的担忧。日本财务省此前预计，日本10年期国债收益率到2028年将升至2.5%，债务利息将从去年的 7.9万亿日元增加到2028年的16.1万亿日元。而根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，2025年日本政府债 务总额预计将达到其国内生产总值(GDP)的229.6%，在发达国家中高居榜首。 值得一提的是，市场因通胀预期上升和日元贬值压力加剧预计日本央行可能被迫更激进加息，导致周四 举行的日本2年期国债拍 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to approximately 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, as part of its ongoing normalization of monetary policy [1][2] - The central bank's decision to increase the uncollateralized overnight call rate target by 0.25 percentage points from the previous 0.5% reflects a commitment to adjust monetary easing in response to economic and price outlooks [1][2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Market expectations for the interest rate hike had been building, with attention now shifting to the pace of future increases and the ultimate level of the policy rate in this cycle [2] - The decision to raise rates comes despite initial skepticism regarding the central bank's ability to normalize policy under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration, which had previously favored monetary easing [3] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar, trading around 156, while the Nikkei 225 index continued to rise, reflecting market confidence in the central bank's actions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate to approximately 0.75%, the highest level since 1995, marking a significant shift in its monetary policy towards normalization [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustment - On December 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to increase the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage points from approximately 0.5%, reaching its highest level in nearly 30 years [1]. - This rate hike is the first since January and the fourth since the negative interest rate policy was lifted in March 2024 [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 44 consecutive months [2]. - The persistent inflation and the weakening yen have led to a political environment that supports the recent rate hike, despite initial skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan's ability to normalize policy under the current government [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yen weakened against the dollar, trading around 156, indicating that the market had already priced in the rate hike [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index continued to rise, reflecting positive market sentiment in response to the monetary policy shift [2].

随着日本央行启动政策紧缩，利率上升正促使家庭资金从银行存款流向国债市场。今年日本面向个人投 资者的政府债券销售额已突破5万亿日元(约320亿美元)，创下2007年以来最高纪录。 日本财务省数据显示，1月至12月国债发行规模累计达5.28万亿日元。其中，11月发行的五年期零售国 债票面利率达到1.22%，几乎是去年同期0.46%利率的2.7倍。 来自冈山县的37岁家庭主妇Kyoko Takahata表示，她去年10月从银行取出存款，在当地网点购入十年期 浮动利率国债。"国债利率比存款利率高，而且本金有保障，浮动计息方式让我觉得收益会随时间逐步 增长，"她坦言，"我知道这个收益跑不赢通胀，但股市波动太大，很容易亏损。"Takahata补充道，购买 国债是为子女教育和退休储备资金的更稳妥方式。 以瑞穗银行为例，即便是1000万日元以上的十年期定期存款，利率也仅约0.5%，这也从侧面解释了为 何部分储户选择将资金转向回报显著更高的国债产品。 根据最新发行安排，明年1月结算的零售型国债票面利率已确定：三年期固定利率品种为1.1%，五年期 固定利率品种为1.35%，十年期浮动利率品种为1.23%。其中，五年期利率创下20 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated further progress in wage growth, which is a key factor for potential interest rate hikes this week [1][2] - A report from the BOJ shows that most companies expect to raise wages in FY2026 at a rate similar to FY2025, which was a period of significant wage increases [1][2] - Market expectations for an interest rate hike to 0.75% are high, with traders estimating a 94% probability of this occurring [2] Group 2: Economic Confidence and Wage Negotiations - Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers has risen for the third consecutive quarter, reaching a four-year high, while non-manufacturing data remains near its highest level since the early 1990s [1] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved its highest wage increase in nearly 30 years and aims for at least a 5% wage increase in the upcoming negotiations [2] Group 3: ETF and J-REITs Sales - The BOJ may begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early as next month, with a plan to sell at a rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually [8][11] - The total value of the BOJ's ETF holdings is reported to be 37.1 trillion yen on the books, with a market value of 83 trillion yen (approximately $534 billion) [8] - The sale of ETFs and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a significant step towards normalizing monetary policy after a prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary conditions [11]

即将到来的12月19日，注定将令全球投资者倍感紧张。 日本央行，大概率会选择在这天宣布加息。 02 股市有支撑日本本土股更占优 考虑到日元在全球货币体系中的特殊地位，退出超宽松政策后的日元究竟会如何影响全球金融市场情 绪，以及日本股市的牛市会否收到冲击，成为市场近期关注的焦点。 法兴银行日前发布研究报告称："如无意外，日本央行在12月19日加息基本无悬念，这是其退出超宽松 政策的关键一步。" 法兴银行预测，日本12月加息已成定局，2026年7月再加息一次，政策收紧节奏温和。对于日本股市未 必会造成很强的负面影响。预计日经指数2026年底将冲击53000点大关；其中，日本银行股凭借政策、 基本面改善和估值优势，有望成为最值得关注的核心板块。 01 加息节奏明确："两步走"后暂停 法国兴业银行判断，日本央行退出超宽松政策后，后续货币政策收紧路径将极为谨慎： 2026年7月可能迎来第二次加息，将政策利率抬至中性利率区间下限(1%) 触及中性利率后，日本央行将暂停加息至少9个月(甚至1年)，避免过度冲击经济 这种"加息-评估-再加息"的温和节奏，为股市提供了相对稳定的政策环境，无需担心紧缩过快引发的估 值踩踏。 尽管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous inflow of funds has led to record high shares for several dividend-themed ETFs, including the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910), with the total scale of dividend-themed ETFs (A-shares and Hong Kong) reaching 188 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 70 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [1] Group 1 - The low interest rate environment has made traditional deposits and bonds less attractive, prompting funds to flow into other income-generating assets [1] - In contrast, during the interest rate hike cycle, dividend assets may face challenges, as evidenced by U.S. dividend stocks underperforming the broader market from 2022 to 2024 [1] - Increased market volatility has led investors to seek "safe havens," with dividend assets showing strength while technology sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Index and Sci-Tech 50 have experienced declines since October [1] Group 2 - The recent shift in risk appetite among investors has highlighted new income options, contributing to the record high shares of various ETFs, including the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) [1] - As of December 1, the trading volume of the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF exceeded 400 million yuan, with a one-year dividend yield of approximately 5.7%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of around 3.8% [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese government may intervene in the foreign exchange market sooner than many investors expect, as the yen continues to slide towards 160 yen per dollar [1] - The last intervention by Japanese authorities occurred in July 2024 when the yen reached 160 yen per dollar, and the market anticipates that this level will trigger a new round of intervention [1] - Factors pressuring the yen include speculation that Prime Minister Kishida's stimulus policies may prevent the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates in the short term, while expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have cooled, leading to an expanded interest rate differential that weighs on the yen [1] Group 2 - The Japanese fiscal situation has significantly improved, with the net debt-to-GDP ratio decreasing from 133% to 85% over four and a half years, indicating a reduced need for large reserves to maintain fiscal stability [2] - Kishida's economic plan, which exceeds expectations, will be funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen, with new bond issuance for the latest economic plan estimated to be slightly below 10 trillion yen [2] - If the Bank of Japan raises borrowing costs in January, it may pause the tightening cycle for about a year to align with the government's growth-supporting stance before resuming tightening until rates reach around 2% [2] Group 3 - The recent rise in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 1.8%, the highest level since 2008, reflects market optimism about the Japanese economy rather than concerns over fiscal conditions [3] - The increase in yields is seen as the market pricing in the possibility of higher terminal rates, countering rumors that investors are "selling Japan" [3]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]