1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 内销大盘符合预期，两轮车补库在即 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：近期内销大盘下滑符合预期，26 年逐步进入后补贴时代，优选经营稳健的龙 头；两轮车新国标车型逐步推出，26H1 补库在即，相关标的有望受益。 主线一：龙头公司经营效率更高，海外产能布局更成熟，结合较高股息率可作为稳健配 置首选，相关标的：美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，未评级)、海信视 像(600060，增持)。 主线二：出海仍为长期主线，展望 2026 年有望迎来估值切换，相关标的：石头科技 (688169，买入) 。 主线三：主业业绩稳健，有望开拓第二成长曲线，相关标的：安孚科技(603031，未评 级) 。 风险提示 以旧换新补贴政策持续性存在不确定性、关税扰动反复。 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 看好（维持） | 李汉颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860525100006 | | --- | --- | | | lihanying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 曲世强 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，产能压力传导下，当前肥猪价格回落到11元/公斤附近，7kg 断奶仔猪价格在200元/头左右，行业基本处于全面亏损阶段。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶 段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。当前行业去产能仍以大型规模场淘汰低效产能以及散户亏损退出为 主，中型场对26年预期偏乐观，有逆势补产能的倾向。但考虑到行业深亏局面仍将持续一个季度以上， 逆势扩张对资金压力较大，近期增加的母猪可能会在未来一个阶段反向成为产能去化加速的推手。 东方证券主要观点如下： 生猪：产能去化加速 当前猪价现实与预期双弱，叠加政策驱动，生猪养殖行业去产能加速。产能压力传导下，当前肥猪价格 回落到11元/公斤附近，7kg断奶仔猪价格在200元/头左右，行业基本处于全面亏损阶段。考虑到当前肥 猪和仔猪价格近期已降至年内低点，后续价格有望进一步回落(目前看，2026年Q1肥猪出栏量将持续处 于高位)。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开启市场化去产能。此外，政策端也 在持续强化对头部集团场产能的限制，两者叠加下，行业去产能有望持续兑现，助力猪价长期上涨。 11月能繁去化趋势延续 从第三方机构能 ...

❑ 通用设备：10 月我国工业利润短期承压，静待"反内卷"效果落地 据 Wind，2025 年 1-10 月我国工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.8%，增速较前值下降 0.6pct； 工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.9%，增速较前值下降 1.3pct；其中 10 月当月工业企业利润总额 同比下降 5.5%，主要受上年同期基数有所抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响。制造业方面， 据 Wind，2025 年 1-10 月我国制造业营业收入同比增长 2.6%，增速较前值下降 0.8pct；制造 业利润总额同比增长 7.7%，增速较前值下降 2.2pct。总体来看，受工业企业收入增速下降、 工业企业成本费用率上升以及上年同期基数升高等因素影响，10 月我国工业和制造业利润增 速均有所下降。不过，从库存来看，10 月我国工业产成品存货同比增长 3.7%，增速较前值回 升 0.9pct，连续 2 月回升；10 月我国 PPI 增速亦较前值收窄 0.2pct 至-2.1%，连续 3 个月回升， 或表明我国已逐渐进入新一轮补库周期。展望未来，在宏观政策持续发力、叠加"反内卷" 进程持续推进和补库周期开启，我国工业和制造业营业收入和利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the hottest segment this year, with stock prices rising over 70% as of October 14, 2025, ranking first among all industries. The core drivers include supply contraction and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on the dialogue between strategy and industry teams to address various questions regarding the sector [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply constraints are a fundamental logic behind the market's performance, with significant underinvestment in global resource capital over the past decade, particularly in key metals like copper and rare earths. This has led to a decrease in supply elasticity [24]. - The latest round of inventory replenishment may exceed market expectations due to a shift in the U.S. economic structure, with manufacturing showing signs of recovery while the service sector weakens. This could lead to a more robust inventory cycle compared to previous years [3][14]. - The global manufacturing cycle is expected to gradually recover, which will increase resource consumption per unit of GDP, potentially leading to a significant rise in metal demand [16][19]. Group 2: Financial and Market Trends - The financial environment, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to support metal prices, with gold and other precious metals benefiting from increased liquidity and risk aversion [26]. - The current market dynamics suggest a transition to a rebalancing phase, with a focus on the recovery of corporate earnings and the export price index in China as key indicators for A-share companies [5]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by a combination of supply constraints, inventory replenishment, and financial attributes, indicating a systemic recovery rather than purely demand-driven growth [26]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The copper market is particularly sensitive to inventory replenishment logic, with price support stemming from U.S. market dynamics influenced by tariffs and supply disruptions [25]. - The demand for metals, especially copper, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of AI infrastructure, which will drive increased consumption in data centers and power systems [42][45]. - The valuation differences between overseas and Chinese non-ferrous metal stocks can be attributed to varying valuation methods and accounting practices, with Chinese companies showing higher cash profit quality but lower apparent valuations [30][32][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in shipping rates and trade dynamics between Asia and Europe, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events and economic conditions on the supply and demand in the shipping industry [3][5][11]. Demand Side: Resilience Expected but Growth May Slow - The shipping trade volume from Asia to Europe has seen a year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, which is historically high, but the price elasticity of shipping rates is lower than last year [5][11]. - Different freight forwarding companies report varying experiences regarding cargo volume, with most indicating an increase, but the perception of growth differs based on customer structure and product types [5][7]. - Factors driving significant growth in imports from China to Europe include cost advantages of Chinese products, shifts in export destinations due to tariffs, policy-driven stockpiling behaviors, and environmental factors such as high summer temperatures in Europe [7][10]. - The demand for certain categories, particularly textiles, machinery, and electric vehicles, remains strong, although the overall growth rate is expected to slow in the coming year [11]. Supply Side: Continued Loose Supply Conditions - The restructuring of shipping alliances has led to an increase in overall market capacity and the introduction of new shipping routes, affecting pricing dynamics and cargo strategies [13]. - The market is experiencing a loosening of supply as the benefits from the additional shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions diminish, leading to more scheduled repairs and maintenance of vessels [16][19]. - The delivery of new ships is expected to slow down next year, but some companies still face significant delivery pressures, which may contribute to ongoing supply looseness [19]. - The introduction of more car carriers is expected to divert container shipping volumes, particularly for electric vehicles, thereby reducing demand on container shipping routes to Europe [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The demand for steel in the peak season is not strong, with marginal improvement in building material apparent demand. There is a cost - support due to pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but high building material production raises concerns for the distant market. Futures unilateral trading lacks strong rebound drive, and it's recommended to wait and see. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day [2]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from loss to profit, supply is increasing, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak season, there are risks of decreased iron - water and electric - furnace operation, and high inventory needs to be digested [3][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot prices are rising, and with domestic policy expectations and overseas interest - rate cuts, there is strong bottom support. Before the National Day, it's advisable to go long on dips, but also pay attention to taking profits at high prices [6]. - **Iron Ore**: During the replenishment period, there is support for iron ore prices, but the upward space depends on the steel demand. Long - term, it's recommended to go long on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - **Prices and Changes on September 19**: - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3232 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.75%); HC2605 at 3384 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 786 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.77%); J2605 at 1883 yuan/ton, up 29.5 yuan (1.59%); JM2605 at 1334 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan (2.42%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts**: RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan (0.73%); HC2601 at 3374 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.18%); I2601 at 807.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.81%); J2601 at 1738.5 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (0.75%); JM2601 at 1232 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (-1.36%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 60 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 144.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Other Ratios**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, down 0.01; the rebar disk profit was - 87.38 yuan/ton, down 2.13 yuan; the coking disk profit was 99.94 yuan/ton, down 8.41 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 106.55, up 1.35 [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Rizhao Port PB ore was 794 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Qingdao Super Special Powder was 702 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; another type of ore was 743 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; Ganqimaodu coking coal was 1215 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Port PB ore was 790 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Trading Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For the disk arbitrage, consider narrowing the spread of the 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread around 180 and take profit. For basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider taking profit according to the spot exposure before the National Day [2][8]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Industrial customers should focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the National Day, go long on dips and take profits at high prices [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: Continue the strategy of going long on dips [7][8].

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]

Economic Concerns - Economic growth in the first half of 2025 was strong at 5.3% YoY, driven by exports and the "two new" sectors, but recent months show signs of weakness[3] - Retail sales growth fell to 3.7% in July, influenced by e-commerce promotions and a gap in national subsidies[3] - Real estate continues to drag on the economy, with credit financing for property companies dropping 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years[3][20] Inflation and Price Transmission - July's inflation was below market expectations, with PPI at -3.6% due to poor price transmission from upstream to downstream sectors[4][24] - Capacity utilization in midstream (74%) and downstream (74.7%) is significantly lower than upstream (76.7%), hindering price transmission[4][24] Service Sector Resilience - While manufacturing sector sentiment is declining, the service sector shows strong resilience, with a service production index at 5.8%[5][32] - Service retail sales for January to July saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%, but certain service categories like tourism and leisure are experiencing double-digit growth[5][35] Export Performance - Exports grew by 7.2% YoY in July, with only 30% attributed to "panic buying" and 70% due to improved external demand and market share[7][44] - The contribution of "panic buying" to July's exports was approximately 2 percentage points, primarily affecting trade with ASEAN and Hong Kong[7][44] Future Outlook - Emerging economies are increasing investment, which, combined with China's growing import share in the Middle East and Africa, may boost exports to these regions[8][59] - Risks include potential short-term constraints from economic transformation and the effectiveness of policy implementation[8]