综合来看，当前纯碱市场高供应格局并未改变，纯碱产量、库存仍处于高位，后续天然碱项目投产将进 一步加剧供应压力。与此同时，原材料价格季节性承压，或难以对纯碱提供上行驱动。虽然企业库存持 续去化，但阶段性实际需求增量较为有限，且终端需求仍处于调整中，产业基本面延续宽松格局，纯碱 价格大概率承压整理。不过，四季度宏观预期向好，需警惕市场情绪与产业基本面背离下的价格波动风 险。 随着"金九银十"建材需求传统旺季到来，市场悲观预期略有好转，结合国庆、中秋双节前中下游企业备 货增加，9月碱厂库存持续去化。截至9月25日，国内碱厂库存165.15万吨，环比下降21.6万吨或 11.56%，其中重碱去库更为明显。不过，不管是重碱还是轻碱，库存均处于近年同期高位，还需要关 注需求改善的持续性。 需求方面来看，重碱下游需求主要集中在玻璃上。此前光伏组件"抢出口"提振对原材料的采购，光伏玻 璃生产扭亏为盈，生产积极性改善支撑重碱需求小幅回升。但9月以来，光伏玻璃日熔量增幅放缓且仍 处低位，叠加下游组件企业采购积极性降温，对重碱需求有所松动。 近期浮法玻璃企业报价上调，工艺利润稳定，日熔量环比略有增加，不过下游深加工产品订单天数增幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance in recent months, with a slight increase in textile exports but a decline in clothing exports. Specifically, from January to August 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and products exports increased by 1.6%, while clothing and accessories exports decreased by 1.7% [2][18]. - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a decline in revenue for August 2025, with significant year-on-year decreases for companies like Yuanyuan Group and Laiyixing, while some companies like Laiyixing still showed growth in the first eight months of the year [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Observations - Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a general decline in revenue for August 2025, with Yuanyuan Group's revenue down by 9.7% year-on-year, and Laiyixing down by 23.11% [19][20]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.67% this week, lagging behind the SW light industry sector, which increased by 1.88% [20][21]. - The PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing is 22.05 times, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it is 30.57 times, indicating varying levels of valuation across sub-sectors [24]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - From January to August 2025, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $945.13 billion and $1,027.61 billion, respectively, with a slight increase in textile exports and a decrease in clothing exports [48]. - The domestic retail sales in July 2025 reached 3.88 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [55]. 4. Industry News - Stone Island opened a new flagship store in Hangzhou, showcasing its commitment to innovation and sustainability [67][68]. - Jiangnan Buyi Group reported a 4.6% increase in revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, driven by online sales growth and an expansion of its offline store network [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuation in sunflower seed prices has significantly impacted the profits of Qiaqia Food, leading to a notable decline in net profit due to rising raw material costs [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Qiaqia Food reported a revenue of 2.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.05% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 88.6416 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 73.68% [2] Group 2: Raw Material Cost Impact - The cost of sunflower seed raw materials increased by approximately 10%-15% compared to the same period last year [1] - Direct materials accounted for 81.53% of the operating costs in the first half of the year, indicating a high sensitivity to raw material price fluctuations [1] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The company plans to enhance its procurement strategy by increasing direct sourcing and promoting order agriculture to mitigate the impact of raw material price volatility [2] - Qiaqia Food aims to strengthen its overseas procurement layout and will focus on trial planting sunflower seeds abroad [2] - The company intends to expand its product offerings in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, by promoting nuts, chips, and konjac products [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a significant decline, primarily due to the drop in soda ash profitability, with revenue at 9.562 billion and net profit at 73 million, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 11.1% and 77.6% respectively [1][2] - The viscose segment is expected to recover, with stable sales and price increases contributing to profit recovery, while the soda ash segment continues to face challenges [2][3] - The viscose fiber industry has not seen new capacity additions from 2021 to 2024, leading to a concentrated supply among a few key players, which is expected to support price increases in the upcoming Q3 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 95.62 billion, down 11.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.73 billion, down 77.6% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 47.97 billion, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year but a slight increase of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross margin for the first half was 12.92%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 0.69%, down 3.49 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Performance - Sales volume changes for key products in the first half of 2025 were as follows: soda ash -5.6%, viscose -1.7%, caustic soda +12.7%, PVC +8.1%, and organic silicon -7.6%. Price changes were: soda ash -33.1%, viscose +3.2%, caustic soda +4.5%, PVC -13.7%, and organic silicon -11.3% [2] - The viscose segment's net profit increased to 1.07 billion, up 0.91 billion year-on-year, indicating a recovery driven by stable sales and price increases [2] Market Outlook - The viscose fiber industry is expected to see price increases in Q3 due to high operating rates and low inventory levels, with a recent average price increase of 150 yuan per ton [3] - The company's viscose production capacity is 800,000 tons, and every 100 yuan increase in price could potentially increase profits by approximately 60 million [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for the company have been adjusted downwards due to the significant drop in soda ash prices, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.75 billion, 5.79 billion, and 8.07 billion respectively [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 26.6, 21.9, and 15.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of only 0.91 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Triangle Tyre Co., Ltd. reported a decline in key financial metrics for the first half of 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs, increased operational expenses, and a decrease in sales volume, reflecting challenges in the tire industry amid a competitive market environment [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately CNY 4.78 billion, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the same period in the previous year [2]. - Total profit for the period was CNY 465.58 million, down 35.42% year-on-year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 395.88 million, a decline of 35.31% compared to the previous year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 365.72 million, down 23.43% from the previous year [2]. Business Overview - Triangle Tyre specializes in tire design, manufacturing, and marketing, with over 99% of its revenue derived from tire-related products [3]. - The company produces a wide range of tires, including those for commercial vehicles, passenger cars, engineering vehicles, and specialty vehicles, with over 50% of its products exported to international markets [3][4]. Market Position - Triangle Tyre is recognized as a leader in technological innovation within the Chinese tire industry and ranks 8th among Chinese tire companies based on revenue for 2024 [3]. - The company is positioned 25th in the global tire industry according to the Tire Business publication [3]. Industry Context - The global tire market is mature, with significant competition from established brands like Bridgestone and Michelin [3]. - The Chinese tire industry is the largest in production and consumption, benefiting from domestic demand and the rapid development of new energy vehicles [3]. - The first half of 2025 saw a 2.0% year-on-year increase in China's rubber tire production, with exports also showing growth [3]. Operational Challenges - The company faced a 9.06% decline in tire sales volume, selling approximately 1.11 million tires in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The increase in raw material prices, particularly for natural and synthetic rubber, has significantly impacted profit margins [3][4]. - Despite these challenges, the company reported a 12.89% increase in revenue in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2025, indicating some recovery [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Triangle Tyre is focused on global brand development and innovation in tire technology, aiming to enhance product differentiation and maintain industry leadership [3]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with quality suppliers to manage raw material costs effectively [3]. - A digital transformation strategy is being implemented to improve operational efficiency and product quality through advanced manufacturing technologies [3].

Group 1 - The company reported its main operational data for Q2 2025, including production, sales, and revenue figures for its key products [1][2] - The total production and sales figures for the main product categories are as follows: Eye products (1,417,633 produced, 1,293,001 sold, revenue of 206,219,439 yuan), Skincare products (4,321,217 produced, 4,012,166 sold, revenue of 364,708,224 yuan), Cleansing products (1,248,862 produced, 1,089,700 sold, revenue of 65,706,024 yuan), and Beauty products (2,942,370 produced, 3,173,964 sold, revenue of 268,017,038 yuan) [1] - The average selling price of eye products increased by 57.93% to 159.49 yuan due to a higher proportion of upgraded eye cream sales and a lower proportion of eye mask sales [1][2] Group 2 - The average selling price of beauty products increased by 42.78% to 84.44 yuan, attributed to optimized marketing strategies that reduced low-priced promotional items [2] - The company experienced a decrease in the prices of key raw materials, including propylene glycol and butylene glycol, which helped lower procurement costs by 2% [2] - The company implemented large-scale procurement strategies, resulting in a 10% decrease in packaging materials, a 15% decrease in tube packaging, and a 24% decrease in certain box packaging materials [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huayou Cobalt (603799) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 aligns with expectations, with revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year [7] - Nickel profits remain stable, with significant contributions from the nickel wet process projects, while cobalt prices are expected to rise, enhancing profit elasticity [7] - The company anticipates a net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 44% increase year-on-year, with a target price of 53 yuan based on a 15x PE ratio [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 3.351 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.25% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 1.97 yuan per share for 2023, with a P/E ratio of 22.47 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 73.845 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.17% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44.44% [1] - EPS is expected to reach 3.53 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 12.55 [1] Market Data - The closing price is 44.25 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 75.293 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.00 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.69% [6] Production and Sales Insights - Nickel product shipments reached 139,000 tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84% [7] - Cobalt product shipments are expected to be around 21,000 tons in 2025, with a projected average price increase contributing to profit growth [7] - The company aims for a significant increase in the sales of ternary cathode materials, targeting over 90% growth in 2025 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan, down 0.24% year-on-year, and net profit at 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the company's core competitiveness lies in its brand matrix and product innovation, which are expected to drive long-term growth despite current macroeconomic challenges [4] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 80% since 2021, indicating strong capital returns to shareholders [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 14.889 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.208 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [2] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 48.1% in 2025, slightly decreasing from previous years [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.50 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.13, 21.34, and 20.15 for the following years [2][4] Sales and Cost Analysis - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.84% year-on-year, with sales volume remaining stable at 917,300 kiloliters [4] - The cost of goods sold per kiloliter improved, leading to a gross margin increase to 51.21% in Q2 2025 [4] - The company reported a net profit of 392 million yuan in Q2 2025, down 12.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.75% [4]

Core Viewpoint - LeShuShi, known as the "King of Diapers in Africa," has updated its prospectus and is making another attempt to go public in Hong Kong [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - LeShuShi was founded by Shen Yanchang, who has extensive trade experience in Africa since the 1990s. The company was spun off from SenDa Group in 2022 and focuses on the African market for baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes [6][7]. - As of April 30, 2025, LeShuShi has established eight production plants and 51 production lines in Africa, with an annual capacity of over 6.3 billion baby diapers and nearly 2.9 billion sanitary napkins [10]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - LeShuShi holds a 20.3% market share in the African baby diaper market by volume as of 2024, positioning itself as the industry leader [3]. - The company employs a localized manufacturing strategy, which allows it to maintain lower costs and respond quickly to market demands, giving it a competitive edge against international giants [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue projections for LeShuShi are $320 million in 2022, $411 million in 2023, and $454 million in 2024, with net profits of $18 million, $65 million, and $95 million respectively [12][26]. - The company's gross margin and net profit margin improved significantly in 2023, reaching 34.9% and 15.7%, respectively, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [16][17]. Group 4: Risks and Concerns - The company faces risks related to raw material price fluctuations, with expectations of rising prices for key materials like fluff pulp and SAP in the coming years [18]. - LeShuShi's performance growth is projected to slow down, with revenue growth expected to drop from 28.6% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2024 [12]. Group 5: Dividend and Funding - Prior to the IPO, LeShuShi engaged in significant dividend payouts, including a $35,300 dividend from its subsidiary in Kenya and a $35 million interim dividend, which raised concerns about the distribution of profits primarily benefiting the founders [22][24]. - The company plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO to expand production capacity, enhance marketing efforts, and pursue strategic acquisitions in the hygiene products sector [24].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.555 billion yuan, which remained basically flat year-on-year; however, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 72% to 35.96 million yuan [1] - Despite measures such as product price adjustments and changes in product structure to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs, the price increase of products was insufficient to offset the cost pressure, leading to a decline in overall profit levels [1] Raw Material Costs - Key raw materials for the company include palm oil, soybean oil, coconut oil, and natural cream. Although palm oil prices have slightly decreased, they remain high compared to the same period in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% from approximately 7,000 yuan/ton to about 10,000 yuan/ton [1] - The average import price of coconut oil in June 2025 was 2,510.88 USD/ton, reflecting an increase of over 90% compared to June 2024 [2] - In the first half of 2025, China imported 80,000 tons of cream, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, with an average price of 7,984 USD/ton, up 24.1% year-on-year [2] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company established a subsidiary to enhance cold processing pastry capacity to meet the growing demand from coffee, tea, and catering clients. It has also launched new products in response to market needs, including health-oriented oils and cream products [3] - The trend towards diversified consumer preferences has led to the coexistence of "small and refined" specialty stores and "large and comprehensive" baking factories, providing more market entry points and development model choices for companies [3] Market Expansion - The company is focusing on resource integration and optimizing sales channels, increasing the number of distributors to 471 by the end of June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42 [4] - The company is also expanding its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, exporting various products including baking oils and creams [4] - The baking market in China is expected to continue expanding, driven by a shift towards daily consumption and increased frequency of purchases [4]