当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

一线城市二手房价格下跌幅度超全国平均水平，对市场信心造成负面影 响。尽管上半年房地产市场总体稳定，但三季度以来价格加速下行，70 城二手房价格环比下降加剧市场担忧。 行政性放松政策未能扭转颓势，降低房贷利率是主要期待。2025 年 LPR 仅小幅下降，银行净息差压力限制让利空间，财政贴息或能减轻居 民购房负担，但成本取决于贴息力度和年限。 若实施按揭贷款利率贴息，预计每年成本 500-600 亿元，基于 15 万亿 销售额和 60%首付比例，新增按揭贷款规模约 6 万亿元，扣除公积金贷 款后商业银行贷款 5 万亿元，100 个基点贴息。 对房地产股市持乐观态度，政策推进将提升市场容忍度，增加新旧住房 交易流动性，改善上市公司业绩。关注香港地产、商业地产及具备困境 反转潜力的公司，这些公司负债压力小、现金流充裕且估值便宜。 贝壳找房受一线城市价格下行影响，但经纪业务弹性较早显现。2026 年利润率提升主要因素包括经纪业务人效提升、AI 技术应用（预计每年 带来 2-3 个百分点经营利润率增长）以及家装和租赁业务利润释放。 地产链：扭转预期，需要踏出那一步 20251120 摘要 Q&A 近期房地产市场的整体表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Deep Konka A has experienced a decline in price and significant net outflow of funds, indicating potential challenges in market performance and investor sentiment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Deep Konka A reported a revenue of 7.679 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -982 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.89% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.557 billion yuan in dividends since its listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 18, Deep Konka A's stock price was 5.42 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 13.051 billion yuan. The stock has declined by 1.81% year-to-date and 3.90% over the last five trading days [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) five times this year, with the most recent appearance on April 15, where it recorded a net buy of 123 million yuan [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Deep Konka A was 146,700, a decrease of 3.33% from the previous period [2]. - The largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 12.7781 million shares, an increase of 1.8757 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Deep Konka A has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 3.80% and a recent surge in trading activity, indicating potential investor interest and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 11, Deep Konka A's stock price rose by 2.14% to 5.73 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 13.798 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 4.37% increase over the last five trading days, a 12.13% increase over the last 20 days, and a 5.72% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - Deep Konka A has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent appearance on April 15, where it recorded a net purchase of 1.23 billion CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Deep Konka A, established on October 1, 1980, and listed on March 27, 1992, is based in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and specializes in the production and sale of various electronic products, including televisions and audio equipment [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 42.78% from color TV business, 39.93% from white goods, 10.43% from other businesses, 5.01% from PCB business, and 1.86% from semiconductor and storage chip business [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.679 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -982 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.89% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Deep Konka A was 146,700, a decrease of 3.33% from the previous period [2]. - The average circulating shares per shareholder remained at 0 shares, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 1.8757 million shares, while招商证券 (Hong Kong) Limited exited the top ten list [3].

Group 1: Tariff Beneficiary Directions - Midea Group is positioned as a leading home appliance manufacturer with over 40% of its revenue from overseas markets, benefiting from potential tariff reductions that could lower export costs and enhance market share in white goods and small appliances, especially as its current valuation is at a historical low [3] - Fuyao Glass, a leader in automotive components, holds over 25% of the global automotive glass market and is well-positioned to benefit from tariff relaxations in the U.S. automotive sector, with strong demand for high-end glass driven by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles [4] - Kuka Home, a leader in light industry exports, has nearly 50% of its revenue from overseas, primarily targeting the U.S. and European markets, and stands to gain from reduced tariffs that would enhance net profits, supported by a mature overseas distribution network and rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce [5] Group 2: AI Long-term Directions - Zhongji Xuchuang is a key player in optical modules, with a strong position in the global market for 800G/1.6T optical modules, essential for AI computing centers, and has seen a 30%+ decline in valuation from the peak of AI hype, making it a compelling investment opportunity [6] - iFlytek is a leader in AI applications, focusing on To B/To G applications in education, healthcare, and industrial quality inspection, with significant commercial success and stable order flow supported by government policies favoring domestic AI development [7] - Industrial Fulian is the largest AI server manufacturer globally, supplying major companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, with over 30% of the global AI server market share, and is experiencing growth driven by surging demand for computing power, while maintaining a low valuation and stable dividend yield [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 深康佳A has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment interest [1] - As of October 27, 深康佳A's stock price rose by 2.14% to 5.73 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 447 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.97%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.798 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, 深康佳A's stock price has increased by 3.80%, with a notable 14.60% rise over the last five trading days and a 15.76% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - 深康佳A's main business segments include color TV (42.78%), white goods (39.93%), and other products (10.43%), with PCB and semiconductor businesses contributing 5.01% and 1.86% respectively [2] - The company has experienced a decrease in revenue, reporting 5.248 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 3.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -383 million CNY, an increase of 64.75% compared to the previous year [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for 深康佳A was 151,800, a decrease of 9.90% from the previous period [2] Group 3 - Since its listing, 深康佳A has distributed a total of 2.557 billion CNY in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, 招商证券 (Hong Kong) Limited holds 19.3095 million shares, a decrease of 200,000 shares from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited increased its holdings by 1.4358 million shares to 10.9024 million shares [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a slight recovery in the manufacturing PMI to 49.8% in September 2025, indicating improved conditions in new orders and procurement, while non-manufacturing sectors show a decline in price and inventory sentiment [2][9] - The report emphasizes the high-level economic activity in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and transportation equipment manufacturing, while also identifying potential recovery opportunities in pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and light industry sectors [4][5] Industry Analysis - **Manufacturing Sector**: The manufacturing sector shows a mixed performance with a PMI of 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery. New orders and procurement volumes have improved, but price and inventory sentiment have declined [2][9] - **High-frequency Indicators**: Industries experiencing high growth include metal products, machinery repair, non-ferrous metal mining and smelting, and transportation equipment manufacturing. Conversely, industries like pharmaceuticals, food manufacturing, and textiles are facing challenges [4][5] - **Supply Side**: The report notes low growth in finished goods inventory and a decrease in long-term supply pressure in sectors such as oil and gas extraction, non-metallic mineral products, and pharmaceuticals [4][5] - **Consumer Sector**: Retail sales growth for discretionary items continues to decline, but demand for durable goods is expected to be supported by new government subsidies. The automotive sector shows stronger export growth compared to domestic sales [4][5] - **Advanced Manufacturing**: The report indicates a recovery in prices for photovoltaic and lithium battery materials, with optimistic production expectations for energy storage and power batteries [5] - **Technology Sector**: The export price decline for optical modules has slowed, while domestic chip production and sales are accelerating, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [5] - **Financial Sector**: The report highlights a decrease in non-performing loan rates and an increase in insurance premium income, suggesting a recovery in the financial sector [5] - **Real Estate Chain**: The report notes a widening decline in real estate investment, sales, and construction starts, with cement prices stabilizing at low levels [5] - **Commodity Prices**: The report discusses the stabilization of coal and oil prices, with a new upward trend in metal prices supported by a weak dollar and geopolitical factors [5]

Policy Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy for home appliances in China will be strengthened and expanded by 2025, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of the year to support its implementation, stimulating consumer activity, although demand elasticity varies by category and there is regional imbalance in subsidy consumption [1] - The US-China tariff policy shows a trend of "tightening first, then loosening," causing short-term disruptions to China's home appliance exports but also encouraging companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adjustment capabilities [1] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, leading brands in the black appliance sector in China have further highlighted their brand and technological advantages, increasing market share, while the trend of industrial structure upgrading continues, with good domestic market performance but pressure on exports [1] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted the domestic demand market for white appliances, combined with ecological advantages and extreme weather stimuli, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and quality, although increased competition from export-to-domestic sales is squeezing the survival space of smaller brands [1] - The kitchen and bathroom sector continues to be constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate industry, but new policy subsidies focused on this sector have driven both volume and revenue growth for large kitchen and bathroom appliances, while small appliances see a decrease in volume but an increase in revenue [1] - The cleaning appliance industry maintains high growth rates, with leading domestic brands deepening overseas layouts expected to drive export business into a phase of scaling up [1] Financial Overview - In the first half of 2025, the overall credit risk in the home appliance industry is manageable, with rapid growth in total revenue and operational performance, and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors, with kitchen and bathroom appliances under continuous pressure, and cleaning appliances seeing revenue growth without profit increase, while black and white appliances show year-on-year profit improvement [2] - The overall operational efficiency of the home appliance industry has slightly declined, capital expenditure has contracted year-on-year, and there is significant room for optimization in debt maturity structure, although financial leverage remains stable [2]

Group 1 - The stock price of Deep Konka A fell by 2.01% on September 25, trading at 5.35 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 12.883 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Deep Konka A's stock has decreased by 3.08%, with a 3.95% drop over the last five trading days and a 10.23% decline over the last 20 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent appearance on April 15, where it recorded a net purchase of 123 million CNY [1] Group 2 - Deep Konka Co., Ltd. was established on October 1, 1980, and went public on March 27, 1992, primarily engaged in the production and sale of various electronic products [2] - The main business revenue breakdown includes: color TV business 42.78%, white goods business 39.93%, other businesses 10.43%, PCB business 5.01%, and semiconductor and storage chip business 1.86% [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.248 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.05%, and a net profit of -383 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 64.75% [2] Group 3 - Since its listing, Deep Konka A has distributed a total of 2.557 billion CNY in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., holding 19.3095 million shares, a decrease of 200,000 shares from the previous period [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the tenth largest circulating shareholder, holding 10.9024 million shares, an increase of 1.4358 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Deep Konka A has shown mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with a slight year-to-date decline and notable fluctuations over different time frames [2][3]. Stock Performance - As of September 24, Deep Konka A's stock price increased by 2.05% to 5.47 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 143 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.67%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.171 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has decreased by 0.91%, with a 1.26% drop over the last five trading days and a 7.13% decline over the last 20 days, while it has increased by 7.47% over the last 60 days [2]. Trading Activity - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" five times this year, with the most recent instance on April 15, where it recorded a net purchase of 123 million CNY [2]. - The net outflow of main funds was 1.41 million CNY, with large orders accounting for 19.50% of purchases and 20.57% of sales [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Deep Konka A reported a revenue of 5.248 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -383 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 64.75% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Deep Konka A was 151,800, a decrease of 9.90% from the previous period [3]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.557 billion CNY in dividends since its listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [4]. Company Overview - Deep Konka A, established on October 1, 1980, and listed on March 27, 1992, is based in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and primarily engages in the production and sale of various electronic products, including televisions and communication devices [2]. - The company's main business revenue breakdown includes: 42.78% from color TV business, 39.93% from white goods, 10.43% from other businesses, 5.01% from PCB business, and 1.86% from semiconductor and storage chip business [2].