郑氏点银：黄金日线有所小加速迹象，今晚回踩4005上继续看涨 回顾昨日行情走势及出现的技术点： 第一，黄金方面：前一日隔夜强势收盘，昨日早间开盘仍走循环直接续涨一波，10点冲高回落，11点收阳再次反包，且重新站上小时线10均线，则尝试跟随 看涨，成功拿下10米；欧盘连阴失守早盘3955起涨点，则下移3925附近企稳去继续看涨，结果只回踩3940，美盘直接一个V拉升；由于前期3700、3800、 3900每一个整数关口触及下，都出现了循环70米左右的回调修正，这次接近4000下，也进行了盈利对冲保护，把前期2735、2753、3000、3247、3281、 3528、3730多个底仓中长期看涨进行利润保护，防止出现回吐过多，也可以顺便抓波段差价，而夜间的确压制了一波，但仅仅只是回调至3960，并未抵达预 期3930目标； 第三，黄金小时线级别：隔夜强势收盘于高位，今日一早又是循环直接续涨，只有六七点开盘才敢直接追涨，看的晚了，后续就不太敢了，尤其是突破4000 还一直连阳逼空往上，不给任何的回踩机会，就担心它急速上拉，高位接盘而出现瞬间跳水获利盘；19点 收报顶部阴K，勉强有所包前一根阳K，但10均线 4030 ...

郑氏点银：黄金再刷历史新高，今晚3800先稳住还有高点 回顾上周五行情走势及出现的技术点： 第一，黄金方面：早间先依托隔夜涨幅3722-3758回踩的618分割支撑3735一线继续看涨，抵达3750之上减持；欧盘回踩3748仍看涨，由于美盘有PCE重要数 据公布，提前上移了本钱48保护，然后数据公布后，先小急跌至46再瞬间反抽拉升破新高；公布值是符合预期，没利空就是小利多，因此3754-55继续接回 看涨，最终成功抵达3780一线目标；由于持续发力，存在日线进一步破高动能，则强调可持有周四晚间3730上，周五3735上，以及3754上底仓看涨单，等本 周3800上目标，甚至3826目标； 今日来看，一切都按照推演思路来进行，完全符合预判，最高触及3820，离3826也不远，那么手中这两天的底仓看涨，也 已经捕获不少波段利润； 第二，白银方面：上周五指出44.8上看涨，当日大幅拉升破46关口，底仓也就要坚持拿住，去看更高的位置，今日果然也是强势进一步上冲，破了47关口， 才短短两日，底仓就基本已有100米利润； 今日行情分析解读： 第一，黄金日线级别： 月线和周线级别的详细解读可以参考周视频，中长期趋势继续保持 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月31日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：多单、正套轻仓持有 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 内外盘原油价差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：多单、正套轻仓持有 供应 全球原油供应呈现明显的区域与油种分化。轻质甜油（WTI/布伦特）受欧美经济疲软 ...

黄金从4小时分析来看，首要支撑位于前期关键压制位3348-3350区域，此区域预计将成为多头的第一道防线，即便盘中有可能短暂下破，也视为短期技术性 调整。上方核心阻力则关注3400整数关口，该位置的突破与否将是决定多头能否打开更上方空间、实现趋势延续的关键。1小时均线还是继续金叉向上的多 头排列，1小时还有上涨动能，黄金突破之后没有在高位出现快速冲高回落，那么基本上多头已经在高位企稳，黄金短线支撑3350一线，如果早盘回落3350 附近支撑，黄金周五大阳突破上涨，短线多头量能还在，短线回落调整就是继续给做多的机会，综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为 主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3380-3390一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3350-3340一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices testing the $3400 level multiple times, ultimately reaching a high of $3409, the highest since July 24 [2][3] - Analysts remain bullish on gold prices despite recent fluctuations, focusing on upcoming events such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The support level at $3380 is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment, while resistance is noted at $3410, with potential for a breakout if conditions are favorable [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has shown a notable downward trend, with Brent crude oil prices falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI prices at $63.82, indicating a weekly decline of over 4% and 5% respectively [6] - Concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the global economy and shifting OPEC+ policies are contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil market [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued downtrend for oil prices, with MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and a recommendation for short positions on rebounds [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell on Friday, influenced by a stronger US dollar and progress in US-EU trade negotiations, with spot gold down 0.9% to $3336.01 per ounce [2] - The upcoming week will focus on US-EU trade talks and the Federal Reserve's decision, with potential for gold prices to test the $3300 per ounce level if negotiations are optimistic [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a wide range of $3500-$3120, with a short-term focus on the $3247-$3438 range, suggesting a potential upward movement after a corrective phase [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with US crude trading around $65.04 per barrel, down approximately 0.3%, while Brent crude futures rose by 0.98% to $69.18 per barrel [6] - The recent price movements are attributed to unexpected declines in US crude inventories and geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, which may affect supply dynamics [6] - Technical indicators suggest that while the medium-term trend for oil remains upward, there is a potential for high-level fluctuations, with short-term strategies focusing on selling during rebounds and buying on dips [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-21原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2509： 1.基本面：路透社援引伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社20日消息报道称，伊朗与英国、法国及德三国已同意就伊朗核 计划举行谈判，或于下周进行；欧盟就第十八轮对俄制裁方案达成协议，包含进一步打击俄罗斯石油和能 源产业的措施。欧盟外交官表示，将对俄原油设置动态价格上限，比平均市价低15%；中性 2.基差：7月18日，阿曼原油现货价为70.97美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为70.37美元/桶，基差2.83元 /桶，现货平水期货；中性 3.库存：美国截至7月11日当周API原油库存增加83.9万桶，预期减少163.7万桶；美国 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold price experienced a slight decline due to a strong US dollar, with spot gold down 0.2% to $3359.99 per ounce, while the highest point reached $3396 and the lowest was $3346 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are influencing market sentiment, with potential for escalation affecting gold's safe-haven demand [2][3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for gold, with a significant resistance level at $3405 and a potential for further declines if prices remain below this level [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices showed volatility, initially rising before retracting, as markets reacted to US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about supply disruptions [6] - Goldman Sachs highlighted the risk of a systemic supply crisis due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude potentially entering a trading range above $90 [6] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for oil, with prices testing new highs and strong upward momentum expected in the short term [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of $3349.1 per ounce before closing at $3322.6, reflecting a slight decline of 0.09% [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are providing strong support for gold prices, as recent military actions have escalated [5] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations to 2.3% for 2025, citing trade barriers and rising tariffs, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations commenced in London, with positive progress reported by the U.S. Commerce Department, which could impact global economic conditions and gold prices [3] - If negotiations yield favorable outcomes, market risk appetite may temporarily increase, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [3] - Long-term implications of the trade war, including supply chain restructuring and economic slowdown, may continue to support gold demand [3] Group 3: U.S. Monetary Policy and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Market anticipations suggest a potential 25 basis point rate cut may occur later in 2025, influenced by rising inflation pressures [4] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial for assessing economic health and guiding expectations for the dollar and Fed interest rates, which could impact gold prices [4] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices remain near seven-week highs, with WTI crude reaching $65 before closing at $64.47 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $66.72 [8] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing to ease previous production cuts, which may exert pressure on oil prices [8] - The balance between global trade developments and OPEC+ production increases creates a complex environment for oil price movements [10]

研 究 原油：或延续强势，多单、正套轻仓持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 2025 年 6 月 9 日 【国际原油】 WTI7 月收涨 1.21 美元/桶，涨幅 1.91%，报 64.58 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收涨 1.13 美 元/桶，涨幅 1.73%，报 66.47 美元/桶；SC2507 原油期货收涨 8.00 元/桶，涨幅 1.71%，报 475.90 元/桶。 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 所 1. 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：原油投机者在截至 6 月 3 日的一周内将 WTI 净多头头寸增 加了 39,598 手，达到 106,755 手。 2. 金十数据 6 月 7 日讯，伊朗外长表示，下一轮伊美会谈的日期尚未确定。我们将在未来几天对 美方最近的提议作出回应。阿曼外交部长随后将确定下一轮谈判的时间和地点。 3. 美国至 6 月 6 日当周石油钻井总数 442 口，前值 461 口。 4. 金十数据 6 月 6 日讯，美国财政部网站发布消息称，美国对伊朗 ...