编者按 2025年中国私募行业迎来技术与规则双重变革：AI赋能量化崛起，私募规模突破22万亿，私募出海加速，行业迈向多元化新格局。那在人才济济的私募 行业工作是一种什么体验？私募排排网特别开启2026年 #闪闪发光的金融人 # 第二季 特辑。 本期我们收到了来自 百亿私募玄元投资 的量化研究员——Z女士投稿，一起走近这位 北大数学奥数金牌选手的玄元量化探索之旅。 我叫Z女士，曾是北京大学数学科学学院统计系的学生，也有幸拿下过中国数学奥林匹克的金牌，跻身国家集训队的行列。如今，我在数字与模 型的海洋里深耕，更习惯别人称我为"量化研究者"。从奥数竞赛的领奖台到量化投资的交易台前，这段转型之路常被人问及，趁着今天的契机， 分享那些藏在数字背后的成长与思考。（可参考： 玄元投资2026年度策略会：解读主观和量化的策略迭代 ） 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 点击↓↓下图卡片可查看路演 早期探索 ——"数据炼金术"的启蒙之旅 Part 01 我的量化之路 始于"广撒网"式探索 。入行时，四大出身的mentor告诫我：在量化领域早期，不要过早地局限自己，要像海绵一样吸收各种知识 和方法。— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the "emotional quantification" era in the futures market, emphasizing the transition from qualitative reading of information to quantitative data-driven decision-making [3][23]. Group 1: Emotional Quantification System - The new system utilizes deep learning AI to perform rapid "emotional CT scans" of news articles, transforming complex texts into clear decision-making indicators [3][5]. - It provides a three-tiered emotional classification: bullish, bearish, and neutral, along with a continuous emotional score ranging from -1 to +1 to measure sentiment intensity [4][5]. Group 2: Value for Market Participants - For individual traders, the system acts as an "emotional radar" and "noise filter," allowing them to focus on market sentiment without being overwhelmed by information [9]. - For futures companies and professional institutions, it serves as a "service enhancement engine," integrating emotional indices into internal reports and client materials to improve efficiency and competitive differentiation [11]. - For quantitative investment teams, it offers a unique alternative data factor derived from authoritative news sources, enabling the development of new trading strategies based on emotional momentum and reversal [12]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company possesses unique advantages in original news sourcing, ensuring high-quality, timely data that avoids the noise associated with publicly available information [13]. - The AI model is specifically designed for the futures market, allowing for a deeper understanding of industry-specific terminology and sentiment [13]. Group 4: Validation of the System - The emotional scoring system has been validated through rigorous backtesting by leading quantitative hedge funds, demonstrating significant predictive capabilities across various futures products [14]. - The emotional factor has shown robust performance, with improved information coefficients and Sharpe ratios, indicating its potential as a valuable alternative data source in quantitative investment frameworks [14]. Group 5: User Experience and Engagement - The emotional quantification system is now available for users to experience through the upgraded official app, providing real-time access to comprehensive emotional indices and insights into market dynamics [16][18]. - Users can track sector-specific emotional indices and analyze individual commodities' emotional score trends in relation to key events [18].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI technology in the financial investment research sector is enabling individual investors to enter the "quantitative era," allowing them to construct strategies similar to those of "quantitative fund managers" [1][8]. Group 1: Research Focus and Methodology - The research institute focuses on macroeconomic research, financial engineering, industry research, company research, and regional economic research, integrating these areas to provide comprehensive decision support in the AI era [2][9]. - Financial engineering research is considered a key support throughout the investment research process, emphasizing a holistic approach rather than isolating single-field studies [2][9]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The institute holds a license, providing a natural compliance foundation, and possesses a deeper understanding of macroeconomics and the securities market compared to tech giants developing general language models [3][10]. - The strategy is to focus on the securities industry as a specialized vertical, leveraging extensive database resources and a methodology based on securities industry thinking [3][10]. Group 3: AI Product Features - The AI product includes features such as "analyzing management expressions to assist investment decisions," which involves multi-modal model collaboration and the application of alternative data [4][11]. - Alternative data, such as management expressions, can provide insights that traditional structured data cannot, helping investors to "predict the future" rather than just reflecting past performance [4][11]. Group 4: Factor Combination and AT System - The AT system is a proprietary programmatic trading system designed to assist investors in applying factors, constructing strategies, backtesting, and executing programmatic trading [5][13]. - The system includes a rich factor library covering various types of factors, allowing investors to create personalized trading strategies based on their risk preferences [5][13]. Group 5: Role of Individual Investors - Individual investors can use the system to manage their funds scientifically, akin to a quantitative fund manager, but with a focus on personal fund management rather than large portfolios [6][14]. - The AT system aids investors in understanding the market, identifying quality enterprises, and contributing to the healthy development of the capital market [6][14].

Core Insights - The financial market landscape is evolving, with the underlying logic of value creation being reconstructed as traditional information becomes fully priced in [4] - The information gap has shifted, with clients' research teams facing an overload of data but lacking insights, leading to a demand for unique value sources that penetrate traditional information boundaries [6] - The role of sales professionals is transforming from mere data providers to becoming essential "external data decision hubs" for clients, emphasizing the need for a strategic shift in how value is delivered [7] Group 1: Transformation of Value Creation - The true excess returns (Alpha) are migrating towards alternative data, real-time behavioral traces, and deep industry chain topologies [4] - Sales professionals must evolve their capabilities to become indispensable in the restructured Alpha value chain, acting as chief data catchers and value architects [7][12] - The transition involves moving from being "information brokers" to "Alpha signal architects," mastering the collection, cleaning, and integration of alternative data [9] Group 2: Strategic Insights and Decision-Making - The era of passively responding to client demands is over; proactive insights into clients' unspoken strategic blind spots are now essential [10] - The value of single data sources is limited; the real barrier lies in the cross-validation and ecological coupling of diverse data [11] - Each insight or solution provided by the company becomes a critical marker on the client's strategic map, enhancing their business trajectory [13] Group 3: Professional Development and Opportunities - The company offers systematic elite training, realistic business simulations, and one-on-one mentorship from senior executives to rapidly develop core competencies [14] - Opportunities for global exposure through rotations in top financial centers are available, allowing professionals to refine their skills on a world-class stage [15] - The company seeks individuals with a strong educational background, relevant sales experience, and the ability to discern clients' core strategic needs and unspoken pain points [17]

Core Insights - The private equity fund industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by global innovation, moving away from high entry barriers and closed operations to more accessible and decentralized models [1][5] - New fund models such as DeFi index funds and DAO venture capital funds are emerging, allowing ordinary investors to participate in global asset allocation and early-stage project investments [1][4] - The evolution of investor demands is leading to a shift from traditional profit models to impact investing, where financial returns are coupled with social value creation [4] Group 1: New Fund Models - DeFi index funds utilize smart contracts to manage a basket of crypto assets, enabling users to invest with small amounts and trade freely 24/7 [1] - DAO venture capital funds allow community members to make collective investment decisions through governance tokens, democratizing access to venture capital [1] - NFT fragmentation technology enables ordinary investors to share in the appreciation of high-value digital art by dividing it into thousands of shares [1] Group 2: Technological Impact - Big data and AI are reshaping investment decision-making, using alternative data sources like satellite imagery and social media sentiment to enhance predictive capabilities [2] - Music copyright funds are transforming intangible intellectual property into stable cash-generating financial assets, while permanent capital tools alleviate exit pressure [2] - These innovations collectively lower barriers to entry, improve efficiency, and enhance transparency in investment practices [2] Group 3: Changing Investor Demands - The new generation of investors seeks models that align their financial interests with social values, moving beyond traditional risk-reward frameworks [4] - The rise of impact funds reflects a desire for investments that contribute to environmental and social causes, indicating a shift in investment philosophy [4] - Traditional private equity models are increasingly viewed as outdated, as they fail to meet the current expectations for fairness, stability, and sustainability [4] Group 4: Market Adaptation - Thoma Bravo, a prominent private equity firm, is introducing a new investment mechanism in China that eliminates traditional high entry barriers and focuses on risk management and guaranteed returns [4][5] - This approach combines global innovative practices with local market characteristics, signaling a potential maturation and diversification of the private equity landscape in China [5] - The transition towards more inclusive investment opportunities is expected to reveal the true value of private equity funds, marking the end of an era characterized by exclusivity [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a mix of enthusiasm and volatility, prompting questions about strategies that can withstand fluctuations while remaining aggressive in pursuit of returns [1] - BlackRock's China Securities 500 Index Enhanced Fund is being launched, marking a systematic transformation of its active equity products [1] - The fund manager, Wang Xiaojing, emphasizes the use of "AI + alternative data" methodologies to achieve differentiated excess returns in the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The core advantage of the index-enhanced strategy is its stability and low correlation with excess returns [4] - BlackRock's SAE strategy relies on alternative data and AI, moving beyond traditional financial statements to capture market sentiment and subtle changes in fundamentals [4][5] - AI plays a crucial role in generating quantitative signals and dynamically weighting hundreds of signals to quickly adapt to market changes [4][5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The newly launched BlackRock China Securities 500 Index Enhanced Fund is positioned as a suitable investment tool during periods of rising market sentiment and risk appetite [7] - The 500 Index offers a balance of elasticity and cost-effectiveness, making it easier to identify differentiated excess returns compared to larger indices [7] - Current valuations for both the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices are considered attractive, with the CSI 300 still approximately 5% below its theoretical center [7] Group 3: Systematic Investment Transition - BlackRock's active equity business is transitioning to a systematic investment approach, which is rare in the domestic public fund industry [9] - Systematic investment enhances portfolio stability and risk control, allowing fund managers to focus on non-model risks and signal optimization [9] - This approach increases stock diversification and allows for better control of volatility and drawdowns, leading to a smoother long-term holding experience [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing value of data in constructing investment strategies, highlighting the growing demand for high-quality data in the market [1] - It introduces a series of "Data Insights" articles by Bloomberg's quantitative and data science team, aimed at financial professionals to effectively utilize data for investment logic, asset tracking, and scenario analysis [1] - The report covers a wide range of topics including inflation and pricing pressures, supply chain dynamics, environmental risks and opportunities, and key events impacting market trends [1] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The analysis of consumer transaction data provides insights into company performance and consumer trends, allowing analysts to track important revenue and key performance indicators (KPIs) across industries [10] - The consumer transaction data can be aggregated to monitor industry trends, particularly in the essential consumer goods sector, revealing a year-over-year growth rate that leads the U.S. core CPI index by three months [10][11] Supply Chain Dynamics - The integration of financial data with supply chain data is crucial for identifying industry-level risks and opportunities, as demonstrated by the analysis of the European automotive sector [13] - The study indicates that the declining sales momentum of European car manufacturers was evident in the performance of their suppliers, highlighting the predictive value of combining financial and supply chain information [13][14] Market-Driven Events - The article discusses the impact of AI cost reductions on companies, particularly through the analysis of stock pricing data around the launch of the DeepSeek platform [7] - A list of the top 10 technology companies affected by the DeepSeek announcement is provided, with notable mentions including NVIDIA, which has a market cap of $2,857 billion and experienced a maximum drawdown of 24% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant opportunities for private equity funds in the Greater Bay Area of China, driven by policy benefits, capital accumulation, and cross-border innovation, amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and evolving macroeconomic conditions [3][4][6]. Group 1: Global Macro Market Outlook - The U.S. tariff policies have been a major disruptor in the global macroeconomic landscape, impacting growth momentum [4]. - The recent "truce" in U.S.-China tariffs provides a temporary positive sentiment for the market and supply chains, but the sustainability of this impact depends on future agreements and China's economic rebalancing progress [6]. Group 2: Equity Market Dynamics - China's equity market is currently attracting international investors due to its appealing valuations, strengthened market confidence from policy expectations, structural upgrades, and global capital allocation needs [8]. - The MSCI China Index has returned to its five-year average valuation, and future performance will heavily rely on the recovery of earnings momentum [10]. - The "Eight Giants" of China still show significant valuation discounts compared to the "Seven Sisters" of U.S. stocks, indicating potential for capital inflow as trade tensions clarify and China's economic resilience is demonstrated [10]. Group 3: Fixed Income Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, high-yield bonds performed strongly while investment-grade bonds met expectations [11]. - As the U.S.-China interest rate differential narrows, Chinese dollar bonds may face pressure from widening credit spreads, potentially redirecting some "southbound funds" towards more attractive municipal bonds [13]. Group 4: Quantitative Research and Data Solutions - Alternative data is crucial for quantitative research, providing investors and analysts with forward-looking insights to navigate market fluctuations [14][16]. - Bloomberg's enterprise data solutions offer high-quality, globally covered data to assist private equity clients in making informed investment decisions [19]. Group 5: Insights from Industry Leaders - The integration of cutting-edge technology with solid industry research is essential for identifying value in the current market environment, particularly in the rapidly growing Greater Bay Area [22]. - Sustainable free cash flow is prioritized over short-term profit fluctuations, with current market conditions presenting opportunities for value investors to capitalize on undervalued companies [24].

Group 1: Core View - Traditional factors in the current market, such as volume - price factors based on trading volume and price data and fundamental factors based on economic data, are facing the risk of ineffectiveness. In the context of high strategy crowding and over - mining of big data, alternative factors are becoming new and important aids in describing price expectations [1] - The report focuses on sentiment factors with a wide range of applications among alternative data. By refining, processing, and analyzing text information from news, media, and research reports, it can not only depict the current market heat and sentiment but also quantitatively grasp the strength and weakness of sectors and varieties [1] Group 2: Specific Content - The formula for the emotional intensity in the futures market is: Emotional intensity = Σ (Relevance of news/reports to futures varieties × Emotional score of news/reports) [2] Group 3: Report Information - The report data is as of May 9, 2025 [4] - The senior analyst of Guotou Futures is Wang Kai with the futures investment consulting license number Z0016943, and the analyst is Zhang Jingjie with the futures practice qualification number F03116832 [4]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of mastering complex information and gaining forward-looking insights to succeed in investment analysis during the earnings season [1] Group 1: Tools for Earnings Analysis - EVTS <GO> allows analysts to track important company events and announcements in real-time, integrating with Microsoft Outlook to ensure no critical events are missed [2] - MODL <GO> provides access to hundreds of key financial metrics and consensus forecasts, enabling analysts to compare their predictions with market consensus and quickly react to earnings reports [4][5] - ALTD <GO> leverages alternative data such as consumer transaction data to provide near-real-time insights into company performance, enhancing predictive accuracy [6][7] Group 2: AI and Data Visualization - DS <GO> utilizes AI to identify key discussion topics from earnings call transcripts, helping analysts capture emerging themes and opportunities [10] - GF <GO> enables the creation of detailed charts that compare actual performance against consensus forecasts, aiding in the analysis of earnings surprises and historical performance [11]