此外，张浩恩也对高息股前景看俏，当中除传统高息股如中资电讯、内银、内险及能源股外，认为必需 消费品股份在估值回落后，如息率有3%以上，亦有值得博弈的空间。 他又提到，内地人工智能(AI)产业链广泛，涵盖多个范畴，今年为"十五五"开局年，内地或在创新发展 方面增加对AI相关开支，中美在AI方面的竞争，会带动新能源和自动驾驶等行业，而云计算等AI应用 层面亦可受惠，故建议可逢低吸纳行业龙头股。 港股踏入2026年取得"开门红"，首个交易日已急升逾700点。中信银行(国际)个人及商务银行业务投资 主管张浩恩表示，港股去年第四季表现跑输不少主要市场，只因累积不少升幅后，资金趁年底获利，对 今年股市仍然乐观，料两大因素可提振大市。 他指出，由于内地重要会议集中在3月及4月，加上仍未知下任美联储主席人选，市况仍需时观察，如美 国今年减息预期增加，美元转弱，自然对港股有利，料恒指今年目标为29500点。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美股牛市在人工智能(AI)热潮的推动下进入第三年，标普500指数有望以超过17%的 涨幅结束2025年。AI投资主题在今年有所拓宽，芯片股再次领涨标普500指数，与AI数据中心建设相关 的公司的股票也加入该基准股指的领涨行列。随着全球AI基础设施建设进入爆发期，存储行业迎来"超 级周期"，相关股票的表现在标普500指数中名列前茅。另一方面，美国总统特朗普的关税政策带来的经 济不确定性拖累了消费类股票，医疗保健类股的表现则因政策不确定性及药品价格压力而一度表现挣 扎。 以下是今年美股中的一些最大赢家和输家。 赢家 科技股，尤其是与AI相关的股票，再次主导了今年的美股市场。"美股七巨头"在今年仍有不错表现，但 表现更出彩的是存储行业的几家公司。SanDisk(SNDK.US)、西部数据(WDC.US)、美光科技(MU.US)和 希捷科技(STX.US)霸榜标普500指数"涨幅榜"前四，年内涨幅分别为585%、292%、249%、231%。核心 逻辑在于，一方面，AI服务器对存储容量和带宽的需求远超普通服务器。另一方面，行业产能向高端 存储产品倾斜(如HBM)，挤压了传统存储产品的产能，从而引发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several Wall Street institutions believe that the market style may shift towards cyclical sectors due to changes in the macro environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs reports that cyclical stocks have outperformed defensive stocks for 14 consecutive trading days, marking the longest winning streak in over 15 years [1] - Goldman Sachs' economists expect U.S. real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.5% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Piper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Kantrowitz, indicates that investors are beginning to sense signs of a recovery in cyclical sectors [1] - Multiple institutions forecast that financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors are likely to perform well in 2026 [1] - Citigroup strategists recommend investors to increase holdings in financial stocks while underweighting consumer staples [1] - The Citigroup team, led by Adam Pickett, notes that industrial stocks also have potential for rating upgrades [1]

毋庸置疑的是，身为贵金属的黄金是2025年最明确的大宗商品以及"避险资产"中的最大赢家，而除了黄金之外，几乎所有其 他的传统"避风港"资产都全面跑输美股大盘基准——标普500指数，更别说和今年以来暴涨超70%的黄金现货价格相提并论。 全球经济意外保持高热(未像2024年末经济学家们预测的那样陷入滞胀甚至衰退)，政客们积极推动宽松货币，衰退与通胀担忧 开始消退，AI狂热席卷市场之后又遭遇"AI泡沫"风暴侵袭，地缘政治紧张程度持续上升，共同塑造了今年这种前所未有的除 贵金属以外避险资产集体失灵的市场版图。 2025年迄今，贵金属几乎跑赢一切。白银和铂金涨幅均超过一倍，黄金现货价格上涨超过70%，为自1979年全球石油危机以 来最大涨幅。这一表现碾压了MSCI全球股票市场基准衡量指数约20%的涨幅。 黄金、白银和铂金是否也陷入了它们自身的投机性质泡沫，仍是一个悬而未决的问题，这个问题需要2026年大宗商品交易员 们给出答案。但它们的强势得到了强劲的央行购金需求以及其作为更广泛科技建设关键投入品(比如白银在电动化转型与AI数 据中心建设中的重要作用)这一角色的支撑。 上述图表显示，贵金属资产全面胜出——黄金、白银和铂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex indices reaching historical highs due to factors such as corporate earnings recovery, favorable fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlooks [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while the Sensex index increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points, marking a significant rebound [5]. - The market is expected to see nearly 7% economic growth in Q3 of this year, with an overall growth forecast of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Key drivers for the stock market rebound include early signs of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5][6]. - The Nifty index's 12-month forward P/E ratio is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 a year ago, indicating a narrowing gap between corporate earnings and stock valuations [6]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign investment positions, and defensive valuations [7][9]. - The report highlights that the Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Nifty 50 index will rise by 14% to 29,000 points by the end of 2026, with a focus on sectors related to domestic themes such as finance, consumer goods, and defense [9]. - JPMorgan also forecasts the Nifty 50 index could reach 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and improved domestic demand [10][11].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Indian stock market indices Nifty 50 and Sensex reached historical highs on November 27, marking the first time in 14 months that both indices surpassed previous records set in September 2024 [3][4] - Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while Sensex increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Key factors driving the rebound include expectations of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlook for India [3][4] - The Indian economy is projected to grow nearly 7% in Q3 of this year and is expected to achieve an overall growth of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India has contributed to the market's upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Recent corporate earnings reports indicate the strongest recovery in over a year, driven by benign inflation, tax cuts, and reduced borrowing costs, leading to a rebound in consumption [4][5] - The forward P/E ratio for the Nifty index is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 range about 14 months ago, suggesting further upside potential for the Indian stock market [4][5] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign ownership, and defensive valuations [5][6] - The report indicates that foreign institutional investors have significantly reduced their holdings in Indian stocks, with net sales reaching a historical second-high [5][6] Group 5: Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs favors sectors related to domestic themes, including financials, consumer goods, and defense, anticipating benefits from credit growth and consumption recovery [6][7] - JPMorgan also predicts a rise in the Nifty 50 index to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by domestic demand growth and potential trade agreements with the U.S. [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with implications for the consumer sector and overall economic outlook [3][6]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped from 53.6 in October to 51, marking a historical low [3][6]. - The current conditions index fell by 7.5 points to 51.1, also a record low [3][6]. - Consumer assessments of personal financial situations have decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers citing high prices as a negative impact on their finances [6][10]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector in the U.S. stock market has faced significant sell-offs, with the essential consumer goods sector declining at three times the rate of the S&P 500 index since October [3][4]. - Non-essential consumer goods have also seen a 5.2% decline, making it one of the worst-performing sectors in the market during this period [4][6]. - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both essential and non-essential consumer sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [4][5]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, making it a critical variable despite current market focus on companies like Nvidia [6]. - The article notes that consumer sentiment is deteriorating, with 69% of consumers expecting unemployment rates to rise, up from 64% in October [6][10]. - The disparity in financial health among different income groups is widening, with wealthier consumers maintaining spending while those without stock assets are experiencing worsening financial conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks are establishing a new "bull-bear divide" as market sentiment becomes increasingly cautious, with Goldman Sachs identifying 6725 points on the S&P 500 index as a critical technical inflection point that, if breached, could signal the end of a positive market trend lasting several months [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Indicators - Goldman Sachs' report emphasizes that the S&P 500 index's 6725 points is crucial; falling below this level could mark a second negative trend since February of this year [1][2]. - JPMorgan has warned that if the S&P 500 breaches key support levels of 6700, 6631, and 6525 points, it would confirm a downward trend, potentially leading to market adjustments lasting until early 2026 [1][2]. - The Russell 2000 index is showing the most concerning breakdown pattern, indicating a bearish trend and opening up space for further declines [1][3]. Group 2: Systematic Selling Risks - The report highlights that the market's technical structure is precarious, with algorithm-driven Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds likely to lead the next phase of selling [2]. - Goldman Sachs' analysis indicates that the short-term momentum thresholds for the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 indices were breached last week, with CTAs expected to sell approximately 20% of their NDX and RTY positions in the coming week [2]. - A critical level for CTAs is set at 6442 points; if breached, it could trigger over $32 billion in sell orders within a week, potentially causing significant market turmoil [2]. Group 3: Defensive Sector Rotation - Evidence suggests that funds are shifting from growth sectors to defensive sectors, with the VIX index rising above 23, marking the fourth occurrence since April [5]. - In the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector, short selling has outpaced long buying, while defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples have seen stronger demand from long buyers [5]. - Despite this defensive trend, overall stock exposure has not significantly decreased, indicating persistent market volatility [5]. Group 4: Technology Sector Concerns - There is a surge in demand for hedging against declines in large-cap technology stocks, with the implied volatility spread between the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices nearing a one-year high [7]. - Nvidia's recent volatility has been notably higher than the average for small-cap stocks, raising concerns given its market capitalization of approximately $4.6 trillion compared to the average market cap of Russell 2000 constituents at $1.7 billion [7]. - A sharp decline in momentum factors has been observed, with Goldman Sachs' momentum index experiencing one of its worst trading periods in a decade, raising concerns about potential broader market instability [7].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has shifted its stance on the Indian stock market to a positive outlook, upgrading its rating to "Overweight" due to supportive government policies, improved corporate earnings prospects, and low foreign investor holdings [1][3] Market Performance - The Nifty 50 index target for the end of 2026 is set at 29,000 points, indicating a potential upside of approximately 14% from current levels [1] - Since 2025, the Indian stock market has underperformed compared to regional markets, marking the largest lag in over two decades [3][4] Factors Supporting Optimism - **Supportive Policies**: The Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to boost economic growth and consumer spending [5] - **Earnings Recovery**: Corporate profit growth for MSCI India index constituents is projected to accelerate from 10% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 [3][5] - **Low Foreign Holdings**: Foreign institutional investors have significantly reduced their holdings in Indian stocks, creating potential for recovery as earnings improve [5] - **Valuation Defense**: Despite being one of the most expensive emerging markets, the valuation premium has decreased from 85-90% to 45%, approaching historical averages [5][6] Investment Recommendations - **Sectors to Favor**: Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic economic growth, including financials, consumer goods, and defense [7][8] - **Cautious on Exports**: The firm has downgraded the information technology sector to "Underweight" due to low growth visibility and uncertainties related to AI [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not solely determine market winners, but will heavily depend on the economic backdrop and the shape of the yield curve [1] - The current market has largely priced in expectations of a "soft landing" or a mild recovery, but historical patterns show that significant rate cuts typically occur during periods of economic weakness or recession [1] - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and improving economic data, sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and information technology are expected to perform well, while utilities are likely to underperform [1] Group 2 - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and deteriorating economic data, traditional defensive sectors like utilities, real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples are expected to perform better, while sectors like information technology and energy may struggle [2] - The traditional view suggests that the federal funds rate must reach a stimulative level for the market to shift from defensive to cyclical sectors [2] - Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement five consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each, accompanied by slow but positive economic growth, influencing investment strategies significantly [2]