周一，美国国债收益率普遍上涨，两年期收益率升4个基点至3.728%，10年期收益率微升1.3个基点至 4.271%，收益率曲线趋平至54个基点。 这一变化源于交易员对美联储政策的揣摩，以及本周财政部标售中短期国债的预期。在美国劳动节假期 （9月1日）前，交易可能相对清淡，但收益率上升通常会提升持有生息资产的吸引力，对黄金形成竞争 压力。 股市方面，周一华尔街三大指数集体收跌，标普500指数下跌0.43%至6439.32点，纳斯达克指数跌0.22% 至21449.29点，道指重挫0.77%至45282.47点。这是对上周五强劲反弹的修正，当时鲍威尔讲话推动道 指创历史新高，但投资者现转为观望模式，关注英伟达周三的财报作为人工智能热潮的检验。股市回调 往往增强黄金的避险角色，但当前环境下，必需消费品和医疗保健板块的领跌反映出经济放缓担忧，这 可能间接支撑黄金的中期反弹。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周二（8月26日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3386.27美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新 报3376.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.32%，最高上探3386.27美元/盎司，最低触及3350.89美元/盎司。目前来 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing value of data in constructing investment strategies, highlighting the growing demand for high-quality data in the market [1] - It introduces a series of "Data Insights" articles by Bloomberg's quantitative and data science team, aimed at financial professionals to effectively utilize data for investment logic, asset tracking, and scenario analysis [1] - The report covers a wide range of topics including inflation and pricing pressures, supply chain dynamics, environmental risks and opportunities, and key events impacting market trends [1] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The analysis of consumer transaction data provides insights into company performance and consumer trends, allowing analysts to track important revenue and key performance indicators (KPIs) across industries [10] - The consumer transaction data can be aggregated to monitor industry trends, particularly in the essential consumer goods sector, revealing a year-over-year growth rate that leads the U.S. core CPI index by three months [10][11] Supply Chain Dynamics - The integration of financial data with supply chain data is crucial for identifying industry-level risks and opportunities, as demonstrated by the analysis of the European automotive sector [13] - The study indicates that the declining sales momentum of European car manufacturers was evident in the performance of their suppliers, highlighting the predictive value of combining financial and supply chain information [13][14] Market-Driven Events - The article discusses the impact of AI cost reductions on companies, particularly through the analysis of stock pricing data around the launch of the DeepSeek platform [7] - A list of the top 10 technology companies affected by the DeepSeek announcement is provided, with notable mentions including NVIDIA, which has a market cap of $2,857 billion and experienced a maximum drawdown of 24% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The strategist team led by Jill Carey Hall indicates that U.S. bank clients have adopted a defensive stance towards U.S. stocks for the first time in six weeks, with net inflows into defensive sectors and outflows from cyclical sectors [1] Summary by Category - **Client Behavior** - Clients overall are net buyers, with a total net inflow of $800 million [1] - **Sector Performance** - Inflows were observed in technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer staples stocks [1] - The largest outflows were from consumer discretionary stocks, followed by industrials and utilities [1]

Core Insights - Despite a nearly 20% rebound in global stock markets since April, challenges remain due to policy ambiguity, profit headwinds, and high valuations [1][2] - Barclays forecasts a 6.5% annualized return for global stocks over the next decade, emphasizing the importance of defensive positioning and options strategies to hedge risks [1][15] - The first half of 2025 highlighted the fragility of investor confidence and the rapid changes in market narratives, with a notable shift from crowded trades in U.S. tech stocks to broader market sectors and international markets [1][3][6] Market Dynamics - The market has experienced significant rotation, with funds flowing out of crowded trades, particularly in U.S. large-cap tech stocks, into a wider array of market sectors and international markets [3][6] - The rotation reflects a reassessment of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative and the ability of a few tech giants to sustain above-average profit growth [6][7] Economic Outlook - While recession risks have diminished, they have not been eliminated, with uncertainties surrounding proposed tariffs and their implementation [8] - The average actual tariff in the U.S. is expected to be 14%, significantly lower than the initial 23% forecast, limiting potential upside [8] - Despite resilient economic data, a technical recession remains a possibility, and investor expectations should align with a potentially weak economic growth outlook [8] Valuation Concerns - Stock valuations remain high, particularly in the U.S., despite recent rebounds, which do not align with expectations of slowing growth and rising inflation risks [9][11] - Global profit growth is projected at 8% for 2025, down from an initial estimate of 12%, with 2026 profit forecasts remaining at 13% but facing challenges in a slowing global economy [11] Investment Strategy - Continuous investment is deemed reasonable, but active risk management is equally important, with a focus on diversified investments and selective stock picking [1][15] - Defensive sectors are preferred over cyclical sectors, with utilities and consumer staples offering attractive dividend yields and lower downside risk [18] - The importance of diversification is emphasized, particularly given the concentration risk in U.S. stocks, which account for nearly two-thirds of the MSCI global index [15] Regional Opportunities - The UK and emerging markets present attractive investment opportunities due to their historical valuation discounts compared to U.S. stocks [16] - The FTSE 100 index offers lower exposure to U.S. tech stocks and is expected to benefit from a broader market rebound [16] - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar and cyclical shifts, although careful stock selection is crucial due to country-specific risks [16] Sector Focus - Defensive sectors are favored, with utilities and healthcare showing potential for stable returns, especially in Europe [18] - Energy stocks are highlighted for their significant historical discounts and leading dividend yields, making them attractive for diversification [18] Long-term Growth Themes - Long-term investment themes, such as European defense and artificial intelligence, are gaining traction, with governments increasing defense spending and AI-related stocks becoming more attractive post-selloff [20]

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者黄绎达 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 经济弱复苏再度被确认， 红利板块投资价值凸显。 文 ｜ 黄绎达 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 本周（5月5日~9日）A股大盘先扬后抑，上证指数在周内上涨1.68%，于5月9日收盘报收3342点；万得全A指数本周上涨2.32%。 板块方面，本周，申万31个一级行业全部上涨，其中军工、通信、电力设备、银行等板块涨幅居前，房地产、电子、商贸零售、石油化工等板块在本周涨幅 居后。 风格方面，中小盘、科创在本周相对占优。 反映到宽基/风格指数上，北证50、万得微盘股指数、创业板50、创业板指、国证2000、创成长等指数领涨，红 利、大市值相关指数涨幅相对居后。 港股大盘的走势与A股相当，恒生指数周内上涨3.38%；恒生科技指数在本周下跌1.22%。板块方面，12个恒生行业指数在本周有9个上涨，金融、电讯、非 必选消费、能源等板块领涨，医疗保健、资讯科技、必需消费品这三个板块在本周下跌。 海外大类资产方面，美股三大指数在本周均上涨；欧洲方面，东 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook and Sector Recommendations - Citigroup has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6500 to 5800, adjusting earnings per share expectations from $270 to $255 due to evolving macroeconomic conditions and corporate performance pressures [1] - Citigroup recommends overweight positions in sectors such as Information Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare, and Financials, citing their growth resilience and investment value in the current market environment [1] - Conversely, Citigroup holds a cautious stance on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Materials sectors, recommending underweight positions due to their vulnerability to inflationary pressures and demand fluctuations [1] Group 2: AI Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that despite a sluggish performance in the AI sector this year, strong earnings from tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta demonstrate the potential of the AI field [3] - The valuation of AI-related stocks is currently lower than at the beginning of the year, presenting a buying opportunity from a long-term profitability perspective [3] - The Nasdaq AI sector's recent rebound reflects a recovery in market risk appetite rather than a fundamental turnaround in the industry, with concerns over high valuations and policy uncertainties persisting [3][5] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - President Trump signed an executive order aimed at simplifying drug approval processes and supporting domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, which has led to significant declines in Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks [6][7] - The order intends to shorten drug approval times and encourage the return of drug manufacturing to the U.S., while also increasing scrutiny on foreign drug manufacturers [7] - Concerns arise regarding the potential impact on drug affordability due to increased production costs associated with relocating manufacturing to the U.S. [7] Group 4: Autonomous Driving Collaboration - Pony.ai and Uber have announced a global strategic partnership to integrate Pony.ai's Robotaxi services into the Uber platform, starting in the Middle East [8][9] - This collaboration leverages Pony.ai's advanced L4 autonomous driving technology and aims to accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving [8][9] - The partnership is expected to enhance operational efficiency by combining Pony.ai's autonomous systems with Uber's dispatch algorithms, marking a significant step towards the commercial viability of autonomous driving [9]

鉴于美国2月通胀数据低于预期，CPI同比涨幅回落至2.8%；而3月CPI又反弹至3.5%，那么与去年和两年 前相比，标普500指数公司在最新的（2024年第四季度）财报电话会议中提及通胀的次数是否有所减少？ 答案是肯定的。我们使用FactSet Document Search（允许用户在多个文档类型中搜索关键字或短语）来 回答这个问题。FactSet 通过 Document Search 功能，搜索了2024年12月15日至2025年3月14日期间召开 财报电话会议的所有标普500指数公司会议记录中的"通胀"一词。 答案是肯定的。我们使用FactSet Document Search（允许用户在多个文档类型中搜索关键字或短语）来 回答这个问题。FactSet 通过 Document Search 功能，搜索了2024年12月15日至2025年3月14日期间召开 财报电话会议的所有标普500指数公司会议记录中的"通胀"一词。 这些公司中，我们发现共有230家在第四季度财报电话会议上提及了"通胀"一词，低于2023年第四季度 （285家）以及2022年第四季度（353家）的数据。2024年第四季度也是自2021年 ...