Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing pressure on sales year-on-year, with a total sales area of 45,851 million square meters in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.50% [4][8]. - In June 2025, the monthly sales area was 10,535.81 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 49.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.46% [4][8]. - The total sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.50% year-on-year, with June's sales amounting to 10,150.16 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 43.85% but a year-on-year decline of 10.79% [4][8]. - The average sales price for the first half of 2025 was 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 2.07% year-on-year [4][8]. Sales Summary - National Market: The sales area in the eastern region was 20,800 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year; the central region saw a decline of 1.2% with a sales area of 11,926 million square meters; the western region's sales area was 11,515 million square meters, down 2.5% [8]. - Regional Sales Amount: The eastern region's sales amount was 26,945 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year; the central region's sales amount was 7,988 billion yuan, also down 5.8%; the western region's sales amount was 8,163 billion yuan, down 4.30% [8]. Investment Summary - Investment in real estate development for the first half of 2025 totaled 46,658 billion yuan, down 11.20% year-on-year [14]. - In June 2025, the monthly development investment was 10,424 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.58% but a year-on-year decline of 12.90% [14]. - New construction area for the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.00% year-on-year, with June's new construction area at 7,180 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 34.27% [17]. - The completion area for the first half of 2025 was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.80% year-on-year, with June's completion area at 4,182 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 52.77% [19]. Funding Summary - Total funds available to real estate companies in the first half of 2025 were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year [23]. - Domestic loans accounted for 8,245 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.60% [23]. - Self-raised funds were 17,544 billion yuan, down 7.20%, while personal mortgage loans were 6,847 billion yuan, down 11.40% [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector's configuration value is highlighted under supportive policies, with a focus on leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group [41][40]. - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with a focus on quality developers and property management firms [41][39].

2025.07. 14 本文字数：804，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 郑娜 万科（000002.SZ）的亏损还在继续。 7月14日晚，万科发布2025年中期业绩预告称，预计上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损100亿 元-120亿元，上年同期亏损98.52亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损95亿元-115亿元，上 年同期亏损76.13亿元；基本每股收益为亏损0.8433元/股-1.0120元/股，上年同期为亏损0.8309元/ 股。 万科表示，上半年公司保持生产经营稳定，按期保质完成了超4.5万套房的交付；实现销售金额 691.1亿元，回款率超过100%，多地项目开盘去化率超80%；实现大宗交易签约金额64.3亿元。 同时，万科通过存量盘活回款57.5亿元，并以盘活模式新增获取项目3个，2023年以来，万科已累计 盘活项目64个，涉及可售货值约785亿元。上半年，万科还在武汉、郑州、成都等多个城市补充了项 目资源。 除了持续推动销售和盘活补充土储之外，万科在今年上半年的另一项重要任务就是通过多种方式筹措 资金，完成债务偿付。 据披露，万科上半年合并报表范围内新增融资和再融资249亿元；同时还 ...

采写：南都·湾财社记者 孙阳 7月14日，万科发布中期业绩预告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏 损100亿元-120亿元，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损95亿元-115亿元，基本每股收益亏损0.8433元/ 股-1.01元/股。 万科表示，业绩亏损主要有三个原因，一是房地产开发项目结算规模显著下降，毛利率仍处低位；二是 结合行业、市场和经营环境变化，考虑到业务风险敞口升高，新增计提了资产减值；三是部分大宗资产 交易和股权交易价格低于账面值。 报告期内，公司保持生产经营稳定，按期保质完成了超4.5万套房的交付；实现销售金额691.1亿元，回 款率超过100%；实现大宗交易签约金额64.3亿元；通过存量盘活回款57.5亿元，并以盘活模式新增获取 项目3个，2023年以来公司已累计盘活项目64个，涉及可售货值约785亿元；经营服务类业务整体保持增 长势头，经营效益在行业细分领域保持前列。 公司继续获得各类金融机构支持，加快债务风险化解。上半年合并报表范围内新增融资和再融资249亿 元（不含股东借款）；公司顺利完成164.9亿元公开债务偿还，2027年之前已无境外公开债到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a stabilization phase in the first half of 2025, supported by a series of government policies aimed at boosting demand and managing risks [2][3][4]. Policy Measures - Approximately 170 provinces and cities have introduced over 340 policies in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high frequency of policy implementation [2][4]. - Key policy areas include inventory reduction, demand expansion, new models, and risk mitigation, with a focus on supporting housing demand through various measures such as lowering mortgage rates and promoting urban renewal [4][5]. - The central government has consistently emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with significant policy announcements made in March, April, and June [3][4]. Market Performance - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance in core cities, with new residential sales in Beijing and Shanghai increasing by approximately 4%, while Guangzhou experienced a 16% increase and Shenzhen saw over 30% growth [7]. - In Shenzhen, a total of 51,104 residential units were signed in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [7]. - The sales performance of major real estate companies indicates that 47.8% of their sales came from second-tier cities, while first-tier cities contributed 40% of sales, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [8]. Price Trends - The average price of new homes in 100 cities increased by 0.97% from January to May 2025, indicating a structural price increase driven by improved housing quality [9]. - The second-hand housing market has shown a decline in prices, with a cumulative drop of 2.88% from January to May 2025, as the market continues to adjust [11]. Future Outlook - The overall sales volume in the real estate market is expected to remain under pressure, with an estimated total of 900 million square meters of new residential sales for the year [10][11]. - The market is likely to continue experiencing a divergence in performance across different cities and projects, influenced by policy measures, supply-demand dynamics, and urban effects [10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows a clear recovery trend in the first quarter of this year, with the future heat of the land market dependent on five key factors: improvement of the financing environment, stability of new housing transaction volume, effective inventory reduction, transformation of sales models under new real estate paradigms, and optimization of land supply rules [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing environment directly influences the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land, with a relatively loose financing environment currently aiding market stabilization [6]. - The real estate financing landscape has undergone significant adjustments, transitioning from a high-leverage model to a more regulated environment, with a focus on standardized financing methods [6][7]. - As of the end of April 2024, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, supported by both the extension of existing financing and new investments from the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism [7]. Group 2: New Housing Market Transaction Volume - The new housing market serves as a barometer for the land market, with a notable recovery in the first quarter of 2025, where new housing transaction area in major cities increased by 6% year-on-year [8]. - However, the momentum in the new housing market weakened in the second quarter, leading to potential pressure on the land market's continued growth [8][9]. - In the first five months of 2025, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases in new housing transaction areas, with growth rates of 13% and 106%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Inventory - The total inventory of commercial housing remains high, with a pending sale area of 77.427 million square meters as of May 2025, although it has decreased by 7.15 million square meters over three months [10]. - Different cities exhibit varying inventory clearance cycles, with cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai having a clearance cycle of less than 12 months, indicating a more active land market [10]. Group 4: New Sales Models - The implementation of a current housing sales system is a crucial reform aimed at enhancing product quality and optimizing market supply-demand dynamics [11][12]. - The shift towards current housing sales is expected to lower purchasing risks for buyers and test the financial strength and product quality of real estate companies [12]. Group 5: Land Supply Rules - Land supply is being adjusted through total volume reduction, structural optimization, and innovative rules to align with market changes and promote high-quality industry development [13][14]. - Many cities have significantly reduced land supply plans, with some cities like Dongguan and Yantai seeing reductions exceeding 40% [13]. - Innovations in land transaction rules, such as flexible payment options and streamlined approval processes, are being piloted in various regions to enhance the attractiveness of land development [14].

2025 年 06 月 19 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 102 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 全球燃气轮机和航空发动机需求大增，关注铬盐和高温合金行业--行业动态研究 5 月规上工业火电同比增速由负转正、煤炭进口缩量显著，关注动力煤基本面持续改善--行业动态研究 影响土地市场的五大因素--宏观深度研究 小商品城(600415.SH)公司深度报告：产业集群实现"买卖全球"，多轮驱动价值重估--小商品城/一般零售 (600415/214503) 公司 PPT 报告 五大业务多元发展，拟收购三爱富股权打开成长空间--华谊集团/化学原料(600623/212202) 公司动态研究 九华旅游(603199) 深度报告：一体化文旅平台夯实基本盘，稀缺资产驱动长期成长 --九华旅游/旅游及景区 (603199/214610) 公司（产业）PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、全球燃气轮机和航空发动机需求大增，关注铬盐和高温合金行业--行业 动态研究 分析师：李永磊 S ...

另外，新增房地产开发项目，做到净地出让，规划同步，也必然会全部进入白名单融资支持，这也是金 融基础性制度。同时，预售制度下的开发项目，要严格按形象进度和受托支付、专款专用的原则强化预 售资金监管，开发贷款、销售回款等资金要封闭运转。因此，就需要金融、住建、规划、市政（水电管 气路）、教育、医疗、民政等部门政策要系统集成、协调配合。 也就是，在市场调控和行业管理这个基础性制度上，要实现地方一把手负总责下，各职能部门政策要协 同配合。再比如，住房进入存量时代后，房屋安全管理方面，需要定期的房屋体检制度、房屋养老制 度、房屋保险制度等全生命周期安全管理的基础性制度。当然，住房保障和租赁、行业转型（从开发为 主到运营、更新为主）等方面，也需要一揽子的基础性制度。 所谓新模式，行业层面是推动房地产业从高速增长转向高质量发展；企业层面是引导房企从追求规模扩 张转为专注品质，形成以项目为核心的开发经营模式；产品层面是从解决"有没有"转向"好不好"，建 设"安全、舒适、绿色、智慧"的好房子，满足人民群众高品质居住需求；协同层面是房地产不能单边发 展，要实现人房地钱、市场与保障、行业与实体的联动。 新旧模式要渐进过渡，需要搭建 ...

摘要 5 月以来房地产市场数据持续走弱，新开工、投资、竣工面积同比降幅 扩大，但重点城市拿地金额因一线城市高溢价地块成交而结构性回暖。 商品房销售面积和金额同比下降，但环比略有改善，70 大中城市房价指 数同比环比均下降。 6 月高频数据显示市场仍疲软，重点城市新房、二手房成交面积同比下 降，前瞻指标如门店成交套数和带看人数环比减少，表明市场信心仍待 修复，供求关系有待改善。 政策层面强调稳楼市，国常会加大力度推进房地产商直接回款，预示后 续政策可能发生增量变化，稳定市场基本面与向新模式转型并举，需关 注政策稳固和模式转型。 房地产行业基础性制度建设将涉及拿地、销售和房屋养老金制度，现房 销售制度受关注，优质住宅建设纳入城市更新机制，通过城市更新和城 中村改造优化供给。 全国性房地产库存问题需摸底调查，为收储土地和房屋提供数据支持， 提升政策系统性和有效性，放松重点城市限购限贷等行政性限制，稳定 市场预期。 Q&A 最近房地产行业的关注度为何有所提升？ 最近房地产行业的关注度有所提升，主要原因是上周五国常会专门提到了地产 问题，这是过去两年中较为少见的情况。每次国常会单独提及地产后，通常都 会迎来一波政策上的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing construction policies to stimulate demand and optimize supply [4][13]. - The construction industry is currently experiencing weak overall performance, but regional investments are expected to gain momentum as national strategies are implemented [4][15]. - Key companies such as China Electric Power Construction and Zhi Te New Materials have secured significant contracts, indicating potential growth opportunities [15][19]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 1.41%, underperforming against major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index [5][6]. - The best-performing sub-industry was Professional Engineering with a slight increase of 0.09%, while the International Engineering sector saw a decline of 1.67% [6][10]. - Year-to-date, the Ecological Landscaping sub-industry has shown the highest growth at 15.38%, followed by Decoration Curtain Wall at 11.63% [6][10]. Key Company Developments - Zhi Te New Materials signed a strategic cooperation agreement with PREMIUM INFINITE VENTURES INC. valued at approximately 420 million USD, equivalent to about 3 billion RMB [15][19]. - China Electric Power Construction won a bid for a major offshore wind power project in Liaoning with a contract value of approximately 10.77 billion RMB [15][19]. - Other notable companies include ST Baili, which saw a weekly increase of 22.89%, and Libaite with a 19.1% increase [11][12]. Market Trends and Changes - The report notes significant government initiatives aimed at enhancing the construction sector, including the integration of real estate development into urban renewal mechanisms [4][13]. - The focus on high-quality economic development through financial, technological, and data empowerment is emphasized as a key driver for the industry [13][14]. Company Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the construction sector, indicating projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the coming years [22][24]. - For instance, China Railway has an estimated EPS of 1.13 for 2024, with a PE ratio of 4.9, while China Electric Power Construction is projected to have an EPS of 0.70 with a PE of 7.0 [22][24].

// 今日关注 // // 宏观预警 // 1 、国务院常务会议听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报 国务院常务会议听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报。会议指出，构建房 地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚 持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更 新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。要对全国房地产已供土 地和在建项目进行摸底，进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统性有效性，多管齐下稳定预 期激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 2 、广州：拟优化房地产政策，全面取消限购、限售、限价并降低贷款首付比例和利率 《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。其中提到，有序减少消费 限制。优化房地产政策，全面取消限购、限售、限价，降低贷款首付比例和利率。更好满足住房 消费需求。扎实推进城中村及老旧小区改造， 2025 年计划推进新开工老旧小区改造超 150 个， 更新住宅老旧电梯超 9000 台，完成城中村改造固定资产投 ...