Group 1 - The U.S. EIA will release crude oil inventory changes for the week ending October 24, with a previous decrease of 961,000 barrels. A continued decline in this data could support an increase in crude oil and related commodity futures prices [1] - The Federal Reserve FOMC is expected to announce a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate during its meeting on October 30, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell [2] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged during its meeting on October 30, with a press conference by President Lagarde following the announcement [3] Group 2 - The Eurozone's preliminary GDP for Q3 is expected to show a seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate of 0.1% and an annual growth rate of 1.2%. A slight decrease from the previous annual rate could mildly suppress the rise in commodity futures prices, excluding gold and silver [4] - The U.S. is set to release its preliminary GDP for Q3, with expectations of a 3% annualized quarterly growth rate, down from the previous 3.8% [5] Group 3 - China will announce the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for October on October 31, with expectations of a manufacturing PMI of 49.6 (previously 49.8) and a non-manufacturing PMI of 49.8 (previously 50). A slight decline in both PMIs could mildly suppress commodity and stock index futures prices but support government bond futures [6] - The U.S. will release the PCE price index for September, with expectations of a year-on-year rate of 2.7% (unchanged from the previous value) and a core PCE year-on-year rate of 2.9% (also unchanged). A slight decrease in the year-on-year rates but a slight increase in the month-on-month rate could strengthen market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November [7]

Group 1 - The official comprehensive PMI for China in September is 50.6, slightly up from the previous value of 50.5 [1] - The official non-manufacturing PMI for China in September is 50, down from the previous value of 50.3 [1]

Core Insights - China's official manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4, slightly below the expected 49.5 and an increase from the previous value of 49.3 [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - The manufacturing PMI indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector as it remains below the neutral level of 50, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the investment banking sector, highlighting the impact of recent economic changes on market dynamics and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investment banking is experiencing a shift due to rising interest rates, which are affecting deal-making activities and valuations [1] - There is an increasing focus on sustainable finance, with more banks integrating ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria into their investment strategies [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Major investment banks reported mixed earnings in the last quarter, with some showing resilience in advisory services while others struggled with lower trading volumes [1] - The competition among investment banks is intensifying, leading to innovative financial products and services aimed at attracting clients [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a cautious outlook for the investment banking sector in the coming months, as economic uncertainties may continue to influence market activities [1] - There is potential for growth in specific sectors such as technology and healthcare, which are expected to attract significant investment [1]

Core Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for China in July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 1 - The PMI figure of 49.3% suggests that the manufacturing industry is experiencing a decline, as a PMI below 50 indicates contraction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The official manufacturing PMI for China in July is set to be released shortly, indicating potential insights into the manufacturing sector's performance and economic health [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the manufacturing PMI is expected to provide critical data for analysts and investors monitoring China's economic recovery and manufacturing activities [1]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Tin: Upward Movement Driven by Macroeconomic Environment" and was released on July 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Wang Rong (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0002529, Email: wangrong013179@gtjas.com) and Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com) [2] Group 3: Tin Fundamental Data Futures and Electronic Disk - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 269,840, with a daily increase of 0.65%, and the night - session closing price was 269,840, with a night - session increase of 0.63%. The trading volume was 70,070, a decrease of 14,968 from the previous day, and the open interest was 31,494, an increase of 10 from the previous day. The inventory was 6,766, an increase of 16 from the previous day [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9 from the previous day, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 from the previous day. The inventory was 2,220, an increase of 45 from the previous day, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% from the previous day [2] Spot and Price Differences - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 266,900, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 128, an increase of 7 from the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 73,930, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 1,210, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [2] Industry Chain Key Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 254,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 258,500, a decrease of 700 from the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous day; the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous day [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% tariff rate on multiple commodities from the US but hopes to exclude key industries [3] - Canada has conceded and cancelled the digital services tax. The US and Canada will resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21 [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said there is no intention to increase the proportion of long - term US Treasury bond issuance; stablecoin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3] - Trump has expanded his targets of attack, criticizing the Federal Reserve Board including Powell; the White House said Trump wrote to the Federal Reserve on Monday, mentioning global interest rates [3] - China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, the new order index returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, highlighting a balanced but tight funding environment, slight increases in long-term bond yields, and the implications for bond traders and investors as they await lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is described as balanced but tight, with a slight upward movement in long-term bond yields [1]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion, with a net injection of 111.0 billion after 220.5 billion matured [1]. - The overnight funding rates (DR001 and DR007) increased by 14 basis points to approximately 1.51% and 22 basis points to approximately 1.92%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for June met expectations at 49.7, which is consistent with the previous value of 49.5 [3]. - The stock market showed strong performance amid the tight funding conditions, with interest rates peaking at 1.653% during the day [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Sentiment - Bond traders are adopting a "wait and see" approach, anticipating a drop in interest rates below previous lows [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.6475% [3].

Group 1 - The official manufacturing PMI for China in June is reported at 49.7, matching expectations and showing a slight increase from the previous value of 49.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The official manufacturing PMI for China in June is set to be released shortly, indicating potential insights into the manufacturing sector's performance and economic health [1] Group 1 - The announcement of the manufacturing PMI is expected to provide critical data for analysts and investors monitoring China's economic recovery and manufacturing activities [1]