联盟新模式叠加多重事件扰动，小船灵活性优势受益。双子星联盟的诞生将航线从钟摆式航线向轴辐射 式航线转变，用小船运输需求增加替换大船干线运输效率，一条周班欧线干线理论上将增加40 艘2 千 TEU 的小型集装箱船。美国301 调查豁免非中国船东的4 千TEU 以下船舶，一定程度上凸显了小船的灵 活性可能受益于各项事件的扰动。 供给端新船运力有限，未来可能出现负运力增速。3 千TEU 以下小型集装箱船手持订单占比4%，同时 老龄化严重，20 年以上老龄船占比24%，过去4 年拆船中3 千TEU 以下小船占比接近75%。根据克拉克 森预测，2025 年3 千TEU 以下集装箱船供给增速仅0.6%，2026 年预计下滑3%。供给端是全集装箱市场 细分船型中格局最优。 盈利预测：预计公司2025 年-2027 年营业收入可达到13.51 亿美元、12.99 亿美元、15.39亿美元，同比 分别增长0.8%、-3.9%、+18.5%。公司2025-2027 年毛利分别为3.18、2.76、3.92 亿美元，毛利率分别为 23.5%、21.2%和25.5%。2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为3.78、3.34 和4 ...

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 06 月 10 日 德翔海运 (02510) ——大亚洲区域领先玩家，兼具周期和成长 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 7.52 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8780.13 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.00/3.80 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 119.22 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,665.03 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0925 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -7% 193% HSCEI 德翔海运 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 ⚫ 风险关注：全球宏观经济衰退；关税政策升级；红海复航；新造船订单大量释放 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 875 | 1,340 | 1351 | 1299 | 1539 | | 同比增长 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of approximately $1,340.4 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of about 53.3%, with a pre-tax profit of approximately $365.9 million, an increase of about 2,544.3% compared to 2023[9]. - Total revenue from container shipping services was approximately $1,270.8 million, reflecting a growth of about 58.5% year-over-year[17]. - Total shipping volume reached 1,652,222 TEU, an increase of approximately 12.7% compared to the same period in 2023[17]. - Net profit attributable to equity shareholders increased dramatically by approximately 1,666.9% to about $365.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[30]. - Gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was approximately $315.0 million, compared to a gross loss of about $33.8 million in 2023, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 23.5%[23]. Operational Capacity and Fleet - The company received 8 new vessels in 2024, including 6 vessels of 7,000 TEU, 1 vessel of 2,900 TEU, and 1 vessel of 1,100 TEU, increasing total operational capacity to 113,427 TEU, a growth of approximately 26.3% compared to 89,818 TEU on December 31, 2023[8]. - The fleet consists of 41 vessels, with 36 owned vessels totaling 90,008 TEU and 7 chartered vessels totaling 23,419 TEU[8]. - The company has successfully replaced a significant portion of high-rent chartered vessels with owned new vessels, significantly reducing shipping costs[8]. - The company operates 46 shipping routes as of December 31, 2024, including 11 self-operated routes, 22 joint routes, 10 space exchange routes, and 3 space purchase routes[9]. Market Insights and Growth Strategy - The global container shipping market is expected to see a demand growth rate of 3% to 4% in 2025, although prices may fluctuate due to supply-demand changes and geopolitical influences[14]. - The company remains confident in the long-term growth trend of the Asian market despite ongoing challenges in the global shipping industry[10]. - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and expand its route network to provide more efficient and reliable shipping services[10]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of $0.110 per share, equivalent to HK$0.858, to reward shareholders for their support[9]. - The company commits to recommending an annual dividend of no less than $70.0 million for the years 2024 and 2025, with a proposed final dividend of $0.110 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 50.0%[101]. - The company has established a target annual dividend distribution of 30% to 50% of the consolidated net profit attributable to equity shareholders[101]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures committed totaled approximately $599.1 million for the acquisition of seven new vessels, enhancing overall capacity and operational efficiency[19]. - Capital expenditure for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled approximately $543.4 million, primarily related to vessel purchases funded by internal resources[41]. Employee and Operational Efficiency - The total employee count as of December 31, 2024, was 908, a slight decrease from 914 in 2023, with total salary costs for the year amounting to approximately $70.1 million, up from $66.5 million in 2023[49]. - Administrative and other operating expenses decreased by approximately 6.2% to about $41.5 million, mainly due to reduced listing expenses[26]. Compliance and Governance - The company has adopted the corporate governance code as per the listing rules and has complied with all applicable provisions from the listing date until December 31, 2024, except for specific deviations noted[148]. - The board consists of executive directors including the Chairman and CEO, Mr. Chen, and has appointed independent non-executive directors, ensuring compliance with the requirement that independent directors constitute at least one-third of the board[150]. - The company maintains a culture of compliance with the highest ethical standards and has not experienced any significant legal or regulatory violations as of December 31, 2024[129]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The management team emphasized a commitment to sustainability, with plans to reduce carbon emissions by K% over the next five years[59]. - The board emphasizes the importance of environmental protection and has implemented strict measures to comply with current environmental laws and regulations[73]. Audit and Financial Reporting - The independent auditor's report confirms that the financial statements present a true and fair view of the group's financial position as of December 31, 2024[190]. - The audit committee reviewed the group's internal controls and financial reporting matters, concluding that the audited consolidated financial statements comply with applicable accounting standards[160]. - The company must ensure that internal controls are in place to prevent material misstatements due to fraud or error[197].

Financial Performance - For the year ending December 31, 2024, the revenue was approximately $1,340.4 million, an increase of about 53.3% compared to the previous year[3] - The gross profit for the year ending December 31, 2024, was approximately $315.0 million, compared to a gross loss of approximately $33.8 million in 2023[3] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year ending December 31, 2024, was approximately $365.9 million, representing an increase of approximately 1,666.9%[3] - Basic earnings per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, were approximately $0.254, compared to $0.015 in 2023[3] - The total comprehensive income for the year ending December 31, 2024, was approximately $366.4 million, compared to $20.6 million in 2023[5] - Pre-tax profit for 2024 was reported at $365,913,000, a substantial increase from $20,709,000 in 2023[22] - Basic earnings per share rose to $0.253 in 2024, compared to $0.015 in 2023, indicating a significant improvement[22] - The profit attributable to equity shareholders increased significantly by approximately 1,666.9% from about $20.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to about $365.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2024[46] Revenue Breakdown - The company reported a significant increase in container shipping service revenue to approximately $1,270.8 million in 2024 from $801.7 million in 2023[11] - Revenue from Hong Kong increased to $86,011,000 in 2024 from $62,419,000 in 2023, representing a growth of 37.9%[16] - Revenue from mainland China surged to $616,134,000 in 2024, up from $228,838,000 in 2023, marking a significant increase of 169.5%[16] - Total revenue for 2024 reached $1,340,398,000, compared to $874,602,000 in 2023, reflecting an overall growth of 53.2%[16] - Total revenue from container shipping services was approximately $1,270.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of about 58.5% year-over-year[33] Assets and Equity - Non-current assets as of December 31, 2024, amounted to approximately $1,737.5 million, an increase from $1,342.7 million in 2023[6] - The total equity attributable to equity shareholders as of December 31, 2024, was approximately $1,974.7 million, compared to $1,771.4 million in 2023[6] - As of December 31, 2024, the net current assets were approximately $353.1 million, down from $561.4 million in 2023, with cash and cash equivalents at about $422.1 million[51] Dividends - The company declared a final dividend of $0.110 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024[3] - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.214 per share for 2024, down from $0.286 per share in 2023[21] - The company will propose a final dividend of $0.110 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, totaling $183.2 million, subject to shareholder approval at the annual general meeting on May 29, 2025[71] - The final dividend is expected to be paid on July 9, 2025, to shareholders listed on June 9, 2025[71] Operational Metrics - The total shipping volume of the company reached 1,652,222 TEU for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing an increase of approximately 12.7% compared to the same period in 2023[33] - The average freight rate increased from approximately $547 per TEU in 2023 to about $769 per TEU in 2024, marking a rise of approximately 40.6%[37] - The total shipping volume in the Asia-Oceania market reached 129,923 TEU in 2024, a growth of approximately 25.5% compared to 2023, with revenue of about $195.3 million, up 96.5% year-over-year[34] Expenses and Costs - Other income increased by approximately 478.1% to about $71.0 million in 2024, primarily due to an increase in charter income from $9.3 million in 2023 to $67.8 million in 2024[40] - Administrative and other operating expenses decreased by approximately 6.2% to about $41.5 million in 2024, mainly due to a reduction in listing expenses[42] - Financial costs net decreased by approximately 57.2% to about $19.0 million in 2024, attributed to a decline in bank interest income[43] - The total employee compensation cost for the year ended December 31, 2024, was approximately $70.1 million, an increase from $66.5 million in 2023[63] Market Conditions - The global shipping market in 2024 faces challenges such as geopolitical tensions and rising fuel costs, while demand for green low-carbon vessels is increasing[29] - The global container market demand growth rate is expected to remain between 3% and 4% by 2025, with potential fluctuations in freight rates due to supply-demand changes and geopolitical influences[30] Corporate Governance - The company has complied with the corporate governance code and has established appropriate checks and balances, although the roles of Chairman and CEO are held by the same individual, Mr. Chen[68] - The audit committee has reviewed the consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2024, and confirmed compliance with relevant accounting standards[69] - The company has adopted the standard code for securities transactions by directors and confirmed compliance by all directors for the year ending December 31, 2024[67] Future Outlook - The company will publish its annual report for the year ending December 31, 2024, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and its website[73] - The annual general meeting will be held on May 29, 2025, with a suspension of share registration from May 26 to May 29, 2025, to determine eligibility for attendance and voting[72] - There were no significant events affecting the group after December 31, 2024[66] - The company has not reported any major matters affecting its operations post the reporting period[66]