"股神"巴菲特又要出手了，这次或豪掷百亿美元。 据外媒报道，知情人士透露，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司正在洽谈以大约100亿美元收购西方石 油公司（Occidental Petroleum）的石化业务OxyChem。 据悉，这笔交易若达成，将成为伯克希尔自2022年以来最大的一宗收购，且可能在数日内敲定。 多年来，巴菲特一直避免进行大型交易，并逐步减持苹果等重仓股。如今，这位95岁的CEO似乎又准备 在年底卸任前主动出击，近期他已向联合健康注资16亿美元。 而现金储备方面，伯克希尔截至今年6月底的现金及现金等价物仍达3440亿美元，接近纪录高位。 这将是伯克希尔自2022年以来达成的最大规模交易。2022年，该公司以近120亿美元收购了一家再保险 公司Alleghany。这也是伯克希尔第二次在石化领域下注，2011年，该公司收购了特种化学品制造商 Lubrizol Corp．，当时这笔交易的估值接近100亿美元。 2019年，在收购阿纳达科石油公司（Anadarko Petroleum）时，伯克希尔曾获得过西方石油的部分优先 股。而从2022年起，巴菲特开始在公开市场买入西方石油普通股，并成为其近年来最为 ...

2025 年 09 月 29 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 两条技术路线下的降息预期测算 固收利率新论 相关报告 畅》——2025-08-19 《债券研究周报：理财破局低利率，如何影响债市 *靳毅，刘畅》——2025-08-12 最近一年走势 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：如何通过利率互换定价与浮息债利差分 析两条技术路线，量化当前市场交易中隐含的降息预期，以弥补传统流 动性分析中的不足。以及如何基于当前的市场共识，判断未来若政策宽 松落地可能带来的债市预期差与投资机会。 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《债券研究周报：存款搬家进行时，对债市影响几 何*靳毅，刘畅》——2025-09-02 《债券研究周报：交易承压，配置入场*靳毅，刘 畅》——2025-08-26 《债券研究周报：如何解读 Q2 货政报告*靳毅，刘 《债券研究周报：赎回缓释后，机构行为的新变量 *靳毅，刘畅》——2025-08- ...

二、铜矿再现重大扰动，分析师强call 40万吨铜矿减产预警！供需表迎拐点，优质矿企配置窗口已 至。 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 一、欧洲市占率25%，出口毛利超30%！PE仅13.9倍！机构指出这家风电海工装备龙头存在三大预 期差，价值被严重低估； 前言 券商研报信息复杂？机构调研数据过时？屡屡错失投资机会？那是你不会挖！想知道哪份研报有用？什 么时候该看？《研报金选》满足你！每日拆解热门产业链或核心公司，快市场一步的投研思维+严苛的 研报选择标准+几近偏执的超预期挖掘，游资私募都在用！ ...

Around 62% of Americans own stock, whether directly or through retirement accounts like 401(k)s or IRAs, according to a Gallup survey. That's a majority, but it still means nearly four in ten adults have no stake in the market at all. Stock ownership in the U.S. isn't evenly spread, and factors like income, education and race  play the biggest roles in determining who invests and who's left on the sidelines. Main Factors Causing The Divide Among households earning $100,000 or more a year, about 87% own ...

Market Overview - On September 18, the A-share market experienced a wide fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3899 points and closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15%[2][8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66 points, down 1.06%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.64%[8][9] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 31,670 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3][14] Sector Performance - Strong performers included automotive services, tourism hotels, pharmaceutical commerce, and consumer electronics, while sectors like securities, internet services, software development, and non-ferrous metals lagged[3][8] - Over 80% of stocks declined, with notable inflows in tourism hotels, automotive services, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like securities and internet services saw significant outflows[8][10] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.80 and 50.16, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] - The government is focused on consolidating economic recovery, with supportive policies for consumption and real estate, which are expected to bolster market stability[3][14] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to present new investment opportunities amid fluctuations, with a recommendation for investors to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of highs[3][14] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, wind power equipment, and automotive services[3][14]

此时，如果作为金融辛迪加成员的最大持有人仍持有大部分股票，并且他们预计价格还会继续上扬，那么他们就不得不承接市 场上的抛售压力。这种压力由于旧交易区的抵制而进一步增强。然而，这些最大持有人并不愿意轻易继续推高价格，他们会等 待，直到确定那个价格水平的所有供应都已消失。 金融投资者必看!昂首平台上大佬就是明白了这些金融价格走动趋势才能成为千万级大佬，在昂首平台所关注的金融市场中，一 旦价格上涨的趋势开启，在某个特定时刻，价格会攀升至让一部分专业人士觉得可以获利的水平。 在昂首平台看来，当上述过程结束后，市场的阻力会变得很小甚至消失。这时，市场往往会有继续推动看涨趋势的动力。不 过，这也是价格波动减缓或停止的另一个原因。因为专业人士会利用这个时机，在昂首平台所反映出的市场数据基础上，评估 当前的市场状况，或者消化市场上的抛售行为。 从昂首平台的角度综合来看，金融市场价格的上涨并非一帆风顺。专业投资者的操作、市场的供需关系以及旧交易区的影响等 因素相互交织。在价格上涨过程中，专业人士会根据自身的判断和市场情况做出决策，而这些决策又会反过来影响价格的走 势。只有深入理解这些因素，投资者才能在昂首平台所提供的市场环境中 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the experience of the analyst in leading teams for model validation and stress testing, showcasing a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The collaboration between the analyst and their research partner aims to provide high-quality, data-driven insights for investors [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous risk management and a long-term perspective on value creation [1] - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis, which are crucial for providing actionable investment ideas [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter stock holdings have been disclosed, with a focus on its limited but notable investments [1] - Three previously confidential holdings have been revealed, including two homebuilders and a steel giant, with a significant new investment in UnitedHealth [2] - UnitedHealth is described as a "troubled stock," having dropped over 40% this year and reaching a ten-year low in valuation, attracting interest from other notable investors like Michael Burry and David Tepper [3] Group 2 - The article mentions that several institutions capitalized on market opportunities in early April, with specific examples of investments in Pinduoduo and Nvidia [3] - It encourages readers to follow the "Smart Investor" video account for condensed investment wisdom [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Financial Technology ecosystem is thriving, with many top investors involved [1] - Hong Kong acts as a super connector and value enhancer, assisting companies in connecting with investment partners and expanding globally [1] - Over 90% of food and ingredients in Hong Kong are imported from mainland China and overseas, indicating significant market potential [1] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has led to increased interest from European and South American food companies to develop in Hong Kong [1] - The Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency has assisted over 1,330 companies in establishing or expanding their businesses in Hong Kong from 2023 to July of this year [1]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is currently experiencing deflation, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year from January to June [1] - Prices of various goods are showing a trend of stability with a decline, such as pork prices dropping from 26-28 yuan per jin to 17-18 yuan per jin [1] Causes of Deflation - Two main reasons for the deflation: excessive currency circulation within the financial system without reaching capital and goods markets, and a significant decline in consumer confidence leading to reduced loan demand [3] - The downturn in the real economy has resulted in decreased household incomes, causing families to cut back on non-essential spending, leading to unsold goods and prompting companies to lower prices for quick cash recovery [3] Cash Holding Advantages - Individuals holding cash are in a favorable position for several reasons: cash is becoming more valuable, they can avoid financial market risks, have liquidity for emergencies, and can seize new investment opportunities [3] Interest Rates and Cash Value - Bank deposit interest rates have been declining, now entering the "1 era," indicating that cash is gaining purchasing power in a deflationary environment [5] Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing increasing risks, with many individuals withdrawing bank deposits to invest in high-yield stocks and funds, leading to significant losses for investors [7] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be 140,000 yuan, with many funds experiencing losses of 20%-30% [7] Emergency Preparedness - Holding cash allows individuals to better manage unexpected events such as unemployment or health issues, providing a buffer during economic downturns [9] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions indicate significant bubbles in both the stock and real estate markets, with price-to-income ratios in major cities being unsustainable [11] - Individuals with cash can wait for these bubbles to deflate before making investments, positioning themselves for potential gains in the future [11]