《下沉年代》 点评： 以个体视角，讲述了美国社会是如何被撕裂的，并且向两边拉扯的人都越发坚定地认为自己是对 的。 岁序更迭，书香依旧。和过去几年一样，2026年的第一期天团内容，我们安排的是姜诚的推荐书单。 阅读，尤其是与好书的对话，是站在巨人的肩膀上登高远眺，构建专属于你的"思维格栅"，穿透市场迷 雾，支撑起每一个独立而坚实的投资决策。 以下，是姜诚新一期的推荐书单和点评。 《费马大定理》 点评： 不止讲了大定理被攻克的历史，也是一部数学简史和科普书。人最大的驱动力其实不是实用性， 而是好奇心。 《暮日耀光：张居正与明代中后期政局》 点评： 如何用现实主义的方式实现理想主义的目标？权力如何助人实现目标，又如何腐蚀人性？让人振 奋，又让人唏嘘，更让人扼腕。 点评： 关于利他行为是如何进化产生的，威尔逊反对汉密尔顿提出的亲缘选择理论，他相信群体选择理 论：群体选择演化出社会性，社会性征服了地球。蚂蚁的总重量跟人类的总重量差不多。演化生物学的魅 力在于，新理论不断推翻旧理论，达尔文信徒的最大敌人是其他信徒。 《康熙的红票》 点评： 历史是一个素材库，无论什么理论，在其中总能找到所需的材料，这让当事人视角讲的故事比 ...

投资小红书-第266期 200倍收益靠运气还是实力？答案或许就藏在这里。 格雷厄姆是一个谨小慎微的投资者，他总是用最保守的方法挑选股票，通过买进价格低于价值的 股票让自己立于不败之地。在格雷厄姆的一生中，他所做的大多数投资都收益较为平稳，但却有 一笔投资格外突出，这笔投资的收益远超200倍，大大超过他20年内通过各种谨小慎微努力所获 得其他所有利润的总和。 投资当中不能否认运气的成分，但运气是建立在实力之上的。格雷厄姆说，人们必须在打下足够 的基础并获得足够的认可之后，这些机会之门才会向其敞开，人们必须具备一定的手段、判断力 和勇气，才能去利用这些机会。 一笔远超200倍的收益 格雷厄姆在《聪明的投资者》第4版后记中写道：我们非常熟悉的两个合伙人，他们一生中花了大 量的时间，打理他们自己以及其他一些人在华尔街的资金。一些冷酷的经验告诉他们，最好做到 安全和细致，而不要企图把世界所有的钱都赚完。 这两位合伙人确立了一种相当独特的证券操作方法，这种方法把较好的盈利性和稳固的价值结合 在一起。他们远离所有看上去已被高估的证券，并且在价格上涨到他们认为不再有吸引力时迅速 将这些证券卖掉。通过这种方法，他们做得相当成功 ...

本报讯 （记者梁傲男）12月22日，千问App发布"2025十大AI提示词"榜单，揭示了2025年人们使用AI的十大高频场 景，"股票"高居首位，远超其他工具性、生活类或情感类话题。这一结果不仅折射出人们对资本市场的高度关注，也标志着AI 正深度融入个人的投资决策。 2025年，全球资本市场投资热潮不断：A股延续涨势，上证指数一度站上4000点；国内市场ETF总规模超过5万亿元，再度 刷新历史；黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司，国内投资者对黄金的热情被再次点燃。在火热的市场行情下，越来越多用户转向AI 寻求帮助，提出公司基本面分析、财报解读、持仓诊断等问题。 企业供图 AI不能替代专业投研或提供投资建议，但可以辅助投资者决策。比如整合新闻、公告、研报、社交媒体情绪等多源数据， 帮助用户把握市场热点；金融领域专业术语多，AI可将复杂的财务报表解读得通俗易懂。 让AI成为投资决策好助手，可尝试更聚焦的提示词，比如"分析XX公司Q3毛利率变化原因及其对估值的影响"。同时，用 户要警惕AI幻觉，对于输出的信息进行核实。 （编辑 张明富） ...

在基金投资领域，量化基金近年来逐渐走进投资者的视野。 其独特的投资逻辑是否适合普通投资者，是一个值得深入探讨的问题。 量化基金的投资逻辑建立在数学模型和计算机算法之上。通过对大量历史数据的分析，量化基金试图找 出市场中的规律和投资机会。与传统基金依赖基金经理的主观判断不同，量化基金更注重数据和模型的 客观性。 对于普通投资者而言，量化基金有一定的优势。 其次，量化基金可以同时分析多个市场和大量的股票，覆盖范围更广。这使得它有可能发现一些被普通 投资者忽视的投资机会。 然而，量化基金也存在一些局限性。 量化模型是基于历史数据构建的，而市场是不断变化的。 过去有效的模型在未来可能不再适用，这就带来了模型失效的风险。此外，量化基金的投资策略较为复 杂，普通投资者可能难以理解其背后的原理。如果投资者对基金的投资逻辑缺乏了解，就很难判断其投 资风险和收益特征。 普通投资者在考虑投资量化基金时，需要综合考虑自身的投资目标、风险承受能力和投资经验。 如果投资者有一定的金融知识和风险承受能力，并且希望通过多元化的投资策略获取收益，那么量化基 金可以作为投资组合的一部分。但如果投资者对复杂的投资策略感到困惑，或者风险承受能力较 ...

Core Insights - The essence of value investing is not limited to stocks but can be applied to any asset that generates cash returns, emphasizing the importance of a mindset that values long-term ownership over short-term trading [2][3][4] - Corporate culture is crucial for long-term strategic alignment and decision-making, although it is often difficult to assess from a secondary market investor's perspective [4][5][6] - The analysis of business models and competitive advantages is fundamental to determining long-term value, while corporate culture serves as a supportive tool for this analysis [5][6][7] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The concept of "buying a company" aligns with the idea of being willing to hold an asset indefinitely, which serves as a test for value investment [2] - A strong corporate culture can help a company correct its course over time, but assessing this culture is challenging for external investors [4][5] - The focus on business models and competitive advantages is essential, as they are the core determinants of long-term value [5][6] Group 2: Corporate Culture - Corporate culture encompasses a company's mission, vision, and core values, which guide daily operations and decision-making [6] - Identifying a company's culture is complex, as there is often a mismatch between what companies claim and their actual practices [6][7] - A clear understanding of corporate culture can enhance the evaluation of a company's long-term value, but it is often underutilized in investment analysis [5][6] Group 3: Decision-Making in Investment - The decision to invest should consider both the understanding of the asset and its price; a low price may justify investment even with limited understanding [10][11] - The investment process is a continuous decision-making journey influenced by multiple factors, rather than a binary choice of understanding or not [10][11] - Identifying "red flags" or "one-vote veto" criteria, such as dishonesty or misalignment of interests, is critical in investment decisions [13] Group 4: Market Dynamics and AI - The potential of AI as a new industrial revolution is acknowledged, but investment decisions should be based on cash flow generation capabilities rather than broad narratives [17][18] - Learning about emerging technologies like AI is valuable, even if it does not immediately translate into investment decisions [19][20] - The current investment strategy does not include AI-related assets due to a lack of suitable candidates that meet the "slow change" standard [20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The goal of investment management is to generate returns for clients, with retirement plans being secondary to the ability to continue delivering value [21]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents a dilemma for individuals with substantial funds, weighing the choice between investing in real estate or keeping money in the bank, especially given the recent downturn in the real estate market and declining bank deposit rates [1][4]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has shown signs of significant adjustment since 2023, with a 23.3% year-on-year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing from January to November, totaling approximately 1.212 billion square meters, and a 26.6% decline in sales revenue, amounting to about 11.86 trillion yuan [1]. - Among 70 major cities, 69 have experienced a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Bank Deposit Trends - Bank deposit rates have been on a downward trend, with three-year deposit rates falling below 3% and one-year rates dropping below 2%, marking historical lows and suggesting a continued decline in deposit yields [2]. - The total amount of deposits in China surged by 22.48 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, with household deposits increasing by 14.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong inclination towards saving [1]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Given the current high property prices, it is challenging to make a down payment in first and second-tier cities, and opting for a mortgage could lead to significant financial pressure, especially in the event of income loss [6][9]. - The prevailing market trend indicates that investing in real estate may not be wise, as property values are in a downward trajectory, making bank deposits a safer option [8]. - The real estate market is perceived to have substantial bubbles, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, where the price-to-income ratios are exceedingly high, suggesting that waiting for a market correction before purchasing property could lead to lower costs [8][9].

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $30.796 billion for Q3 2025, up from $26.251 billion in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of $12.73 billion [1] - The operating profit for Q3 reached $13.485 billion, a 34% increase from $10.090 billion year-over-year, driven by improvements in the insurance underwriting business [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 was $94.972 billion, slightly up from $92.995 billion year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $91.55 billion [2] Financial Performance - Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 were $47.769 billion, compared to $69.301 billion in the same period of 2024 [6] - Investment gains for Q3 2025 were $17.311 billion, compared to $16.161 billion in Q3 2024 [6] - The average equivalent Class A shares outstanding remained stable at 1,438,223, while Class B shares outstanding were 2,157,335,139 [6] Cash Reserves and Investments - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of $381.67 billion [3] - The fair value of the top five equity holdings accounted for 66% and 71% of total equity investments as of September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, respectively [3] - The top five holdings include American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [3] Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett's tenure as CEO is entering its final two months, with Greg Abel set to take over [6] - Since the announcement of the leadership transition, Berkshire's Class B shares have declined nearly 12%, while the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% [6] - Abel will begin writing the annual shareholder letter and presiding over the annual meeting in Omaha starting next year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a financial competition involving six top AI models, highlighting their performance in real market conditions and the differences in their trading strategies and outcomes [4][5][18]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition, initiated by the US lab Nof1, involves six AI models each managing $10,000 in a real-time trading environment focused on cryptocurrency perpetual contracts [5][6]. - The competition started on October 18 and will last for two weeks, with the performance measured by risk-adjusted returns [5][6]. Group 2: AI Performance Analysis - The top performers in the competition are DeepSeek V3.1 Chat and Alibaba's Qwen 3 Max, with significant returns compared to others like GPT-5 and Gemini, which faced substantial losses [4][15]. - DeepSeek (DS) adopted a conservative strategy, leveraging 10 to 15 times and maintaining a long position, while Qwen displayed aggressive trading behavior, often going all-in on specific assets [9][14]. - Gemini and GPT-5 struggled with frequent trading and poor decision-making, leading to significant losses, with GPT-5 at one point down over 75% [13][19]. Group 3: Insights on AI Trading Strategies - The article emphasizes that the performance of AI models varies significantly based on their trading strategies, with DS showing a balanced and steady approach, while others like GPT-5 and Gemini exhibited erratic behaviors [24][25]. - DS's average holding period was 49 hours, indicating a strategy focused on recognizing upward trends, while Qwen's high returns were attributed to timely asset selection and aggressive leverage [25][26]. - The analysis suggests that AI's ability to adapt to real-time market conditions is crucial, with DS demonstrating superior risk management and return consistency compared to its competitors [24][28]. Group 4: Implications for Investors - The article concludes that while AI can enhance trading strategies, human oversight remains essential, as AI lacks the ability to predict future market movements and may react slowly to sudden market changes [30][32]. - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, avoid overtrading, and be cautious with leverage, as even top-performing AI can face significant risks [28][29].

Core Insights - Recent data shows that in the past five trading days, nine companies' major shareholders collectively increased their holdings by 2.994 billion yuan, signaling a positive outlook for investors [1] - Major shareholder increases reflect confidence in the company's future development, as they possess comprehensive operational information [1][2] - Such actions can stabilize market expectations, especially during strategic transitions or periods of market misunderstanding [1][2] Market Sentiment - Major shareholder increases are often perceived as significant positive news, particularly during periods of low stock prices, as they may indicate valuation recognition [1][2] - When shareholder increases coincide with improvements in the company's fundamentals, they can help repair stock prices [1][2] Investor Considerations - Investors should be cautious not to equate shareholder increases with automatic buy signals, as the motivations behind these actions can be complex [2] - Potential motivations for increases may include maintaining stock prices to avoid margin calls or aligning with capital increases or equity incentive plans, which may not relate to the company's fundamentals [2] - Information asymmetry poses decision-making risks, as ordinary investors may not fully understand the true basis for shareholders' actions [2] Evaluation of Shareholder Increases - Shareholder increases should be viewed as one dimension of assessing a company's fundamentals rather than the sole basis for investment decisions [2] - A more rational approach involves evaluating the sustainability of the increase in conjunction with financial data, industry position, and management capabilities [2] - Long-term value relies on the enhancement of the company's core competitiveness, making it essential to monitor strategic execution and governance improvements post-increase [2]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's decision to significantly reduce its Apple stock holdings in 2024 and 2025 has resulted in an estimated loss of about $50 billion in unrealized gains [1][3]. Group 1: Apple Stock Holdings - As of June 30, 2023, Berkshire's Apple holdings decreased from 906 million shares at the end of 2022 to 280 million shares, with most of the reduction occurring in Q2 2024 [3]. - The sale of two-thirds of its Apple stake was unexpected, as Warren Buffett previously regarded Apple as one of the four pillars of Berkshire's value, alongside its insurance, utility, and railroad businesses [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Berkshire's initial average purchase price for Apple shares was approximately $35 per share, while the average selling price was around $185 per share, yielding over $90 billion in pre-tax gains [4]. - With Apple's current share price near $262, the missed appreciation on the sold shares amounts to about $50 billion [4]. - The company incurred nearly $20 billion in corporate income taxes from the sale, reducing net gains to approximately $155 per share [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Selling - Buffett hinted at potential future increases in corporate tax rates as a factor in the decision to sell [5]. - Observers noted that the reduction was necessary to lower the high concentration of Apple in Berkshire's portfolio, which once exceeded 40% [5]. - There is speculation that Buffett aims to bolster cash reserves before stepping down as CEO by the end of 2025, with cash holdings exceeding $330 billion as of June 30 [5]. Group 4: Other Holdings - Berkshire also reduced its stake in Bank of America by approximately 40%, selling around 400 million shares, which has resulted in an unrealized gain of about $4 billion due to the stock's price increase [6][8]. - Berkshire's Class A shares have risen about 9% this year, lagging behind the S&P 500's total return of 16%, with the Apple reduction potentially being a contributing factor [9].