近期巴菲特的信与段永平访谈备受投资者关注，平台上也有不少朋友给我们留言和提问。本期直播我们邀请中 泰资管副总经理、基金经理姜诚做客直播间，就其中的一些提问进行交流。以下为直播实录： 提问 最近巴菲特致股东信和段永平的访谈中都提到了"投资是基于买公司"这一理念。这和您之前提到的思想 实验"如果一家公司买了之后永远不能卖，还愿意买"是不是一回事？ 姜诚 本质上，我觉得是一回事，当然这个也仅限于我对投资大师们的有限理解。 价值投资，不止局限于股票，任何可以产生现金回报的资产都可以运用价值投资的方式去投资，也都可以从价 值投资的视角去看。 "买了之后即便永远不能卖，也愿意买"的心理实验，是对所有价值投资都适用的一个检验标准，不仅限于股票 这类资产。 即便不能卖也愿意买，它是一个检验标准，而"买公司"是从另一个视角来看投资这件事。以买股票为例，从买 公司的视角来看，也不是说（期待）买了股票之后等待更高的价格再把它卖出去。我觉得这是殊途同归的同一 种行为，只不过是 "买了之后永远都不能卖，也愿意买"是一个检验标准，而"买公司"是一个出发点。 在股票 投资领域，我觉得是一回事。 提问 段永平在访谈中多次强调"企业文化"，认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment presents a dilemma for individuals with substantial funds, weighing the choice between investing in real estate or keeping money in the bank, especially given the recent downturn in the real estate market and declining bank deposit rates [1][4]. Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market in China has shown signs of significant adjustment since 2023, with a 23.3% year-on-year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing from January to November, totaling approximately 1.212 billion square meters, and a 26.6% decline in sales revenue, amounting to about 11.86 trillion yuan [1]. - Among 70 major cities, 69 have experienced a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating a widespread downturn in the market [1]. Bank Deposit Trends - Bank deposit rates have been on a downward trend, with three-year deposit rates falling below 3% and one-year rates dropping below 2%, marking historical lows and suggesting a continued decline in deposit yields [2]. - The total amount of deposits in China surged by 22.48 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, with household deposits increasing by 14.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong inclination towards saving [1]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Given the current high property prices, it is challenging to make a down payment in first and second-tier cities, and opting for a mortgage could lead to significant financial pressure, especially in the event of income loss [6][9]. - The prevailing market trend indicates that investing in real estate may not be wise, as property values are in a downward trajectory, making bank deposits a safer option [8]. - The real estate market is perceived to have substantial bubbles, particularly in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, where the price-to-income ratios are exceedingly high, suggesting that waiting for a market correction before purchasing property could lead to lower costs [8][9].

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway reported a net profit of $30.796 billion for Q3 2025, up from $26.251 billion in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of $12.73 billion [1] - The operating profit for Q3 reached $13.485 billion, a 34% increase from $10.090 billion year-over-year, driven by improvements in the insurance underwriting business [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 was $94.972 billion, slightly up from $92.995 billion year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $91.55 billion [2] Financial Performance - Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 were $47.769 billion, compared to $69.301 billion in the same period of 2024 [6] - Investment gains for Q3 2025 were $17.311 billion, compared to $16.161 billion in Q3 2024 [6] - The average equivalent Class A shares outstanding remained stable at 1,438,223, while Class B shares outstanding were 2,157,335,139 [6] Cash Reserves and Investments - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of $381.67 billion [3] - The fair value of the top five equity holdings accounted for 66% and 71% of total equity investments as of September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, respectively [3] - The top five holdings include American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [3] Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett's tenure as CEO is entering its final two months, with Greg Abel set to take over [6] - Since the announcement of the leadership transition, Berkshire's Class B shares have declined nearly 12%, while the S&P 500 index has risen by 21% [6] - Abel will begin writing the annual shareholder letter and presiding over the annual meeting in Omaha starting next year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a financial competition involving six top AI models, highlighting their performance in real market conditions and the differences in their trading strategies and outcomes [4][5][18]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition, initiated by the US lab Nof1, involves six AI models each managing $10,000 in a real-time trading environment focused on cryptocurrency perpetual contracts [5][6]. - The competition started on October 18 and will last for two weeks, with the performance measured by risk-adjusted returns [5][6]. Group 2: AI Performance Analysis - The top performers in the competition are DeepSeek V3.1 Chat and Alibaba's Qwen 3 Max, with significant returns compared to others like GPT-5 and Gemini, which faced substantial losses [4][15]. - DeepSeek (DS) adopted a conservative strategy, leveraging 10 to 15 times and maintaining a long position, while Qwen displayed aggressive trading behavior, often going all-in on specific assets [9][14]. - Gemini and GPT-5 struggled with frequent trading and poor decision-making, leading to significant losses, with GPT-5 at one point down over 75% [13][19]. Group 3: Insights on AI Trading Strategies - The article emphasizes that the performance of AI models varies significantly based on their trading strategies, with DS showing a balanced and steady approach, while others like GPT-5 and Gemini exhibited erratic behaviors [24][25]. - DS's average holding period was 49 hours, indicating a strategy focused on recognizing upward trends, while Qwen's high returns were attributed to timely asset selection and aggressive leverage [25][26]. - The analysis suggests that AI's ability to adapt to real-time market conditions is crucial, with DS demonstrating superior risk management and return consistency compared to its competitors [24][28]. Group 4: Implications for Investors - The article concludes that while AI can enhance trading strategies, human oversight remains essential, as AI lacks the ability to predict future market movements and may react slowly to sudden market changes [30][32]. - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, avoid overtrading, and be cautious with leverage, as even top-performing AI can face significant risks [28][29].

Core Insights - Recent data shows that in the past five trading days, nine companies' major shareholders collectively increased their holdings by 2.994 billion yuan, signaling a positive outlook for investors [1] - Major shareholder increases reflect confidence in the company's future development, as they possess comprehensive operational information [1][2] - Such actions can stabilize market expectations, especially during strategic transitions or periods of market misunderstanding [1][2] Market Sentiment - Major shareholder increases are often perceived as significant positive news, particularly during periods of low stock prices, as they may indicate valuation recognition [1][2] - When shareholder increases coincide with improvements in the company's fundamentals, they can help repair stock prices [1][2] Investor Considerations - Investors should be cautious not to equate shareholder increases with automatic buy signals, as the motivations behind these actions can be complex [2] - Potential motivations for increases may include maintaining stock prices to avoid margin calls or aligning with capital increases or equity incentive plans, which may not relate to the company's fundamentals [2] - Information asymmetry poses decision-making risks, as ordinary investors may not fully understand the true basis for shareholders' actions [2] Evaluation of Shareholder Increases - Shareholder increases should be viewed as one dimension of assessing a company's fundamentals rather than the sole basis for investment decisions [2] - A more rational approach involves evaluating the sustainability of the increase in conjunction with financial data, industry position, and management capabilities [2] - Long-term value relies on the enhancement of the company's core competitiveness, making it essential to monitor strategic execution and governance improvements post-increase [2]

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's decision to significantly reduce its Apple stock holdings in 2024 and 2025 has resulted in an estimated loss of about $50 billion in unrealized gains [1][3]. Group 1: Apple Stock Holdings - As of June 30, 2023, Berkshire's Apple holdings decreased from 906 million shares at the end of 2022 to 280 million shares, with most of the reduction occurring in Q2 2024 [3]. - The sale of two-thirds of its Apple stake was unexpected, as Warren Buffett previously regarded Apple as one of the four pillars of Berkshire's value, alongside its insurance, utility, and railroad businesses [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Berkshire's initial average purchase price for Apple shares was approximately $35 per share, while the average selling price was around $185 per share, yielding over $90 billion in pre-tax gains [4]. - With Apple's current share price near $262, the missed appreciation on the sold shares amounts to about $50 billion [4]. - The company incurred nearly $20 billion in corporate income taxes from the sale, reducing net gains to approximately $155 per share [4]. Group 3: Reasons for Selling - Buffett hinted at potential future increases in corporate tax rates as a factor in the decision to sell [5]. - Observers noted that the reduction was necessary to lower the high concentration of Apple in Berkshire's portfolio, which once exceeded 40% [5]. - There is speculation that Buffett aims to bolster cash reserves before stepping down as CEO by the end of 2025, with cash holdings exceeding $330 billion as of June 30 [5]. Group 4: Other Holdings - Berkshire also reduced its stake in Bank of America by approximately 40%, selling around 400 million shares, which has resulted in an unrealized gain of about $4 billion due to the stock's price increase [6][8]. - Berkshire's Class A shares have risen about 9% this year, lagging behind the S&P 500's total return of 16%, with the Apple reduction potentially being a contributing factor [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of overconfidence in investment decisions, highlighting how investors often make contradictory judgments based on market movements, leading to poor decision-making and increased trading costs [5][8]. Group 1: Investor Behavior - Investor A's behavior illustrates the tendency to make impulsive decisions based on recent market performance, switching from aggressive buying to a defensive stance within a short period [4][6]. - Overconfidence is a common trait among investors, leading them to overestimate their abilities and make high-frequency decisions that may not reflect the actual market conditions [5][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the unpredictability of the market, stating that even in a bullish phase, short-term market movements are difficult to forecast [8]. - It warns that frequent decision-making, especially with low-quality judgments, can result in higher transaction costs and losses [8]. Group 3: Decision Quality - The importance of improving decision quality is highlighted, especially during periods of strong market performance, where thorough research is essential for portfolio adjustments [8]. - The article references Peter Lynch's warning about the false confidence many investors have in predicting stock prices, suggesting that such beliefs are often contradicted by market realities [8].

Core Insights - The total tax revenue in the UK comprises various tax types, primarily personal income tax, corporate tax, and value-added tax (VAT) [2] - Access to detailed tax revenue statistics is available through government websites and relevant tax platforms, which can aid in market analysis and tax planning [2] Group 1: Sources for Tax Revenue Data - The UK government’s official website (gov.uk) is the most reliable source for authoritative data on total tax revenue, providing detailed reports on tax policies and annual revenue [3] - The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes extensive statistical data, including annual reports on tax revenue, which help analyze tax trends [4] - HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) is the main agency responsible for tax collection in the UK, offering detailed information on tax revenue, compliance, and regulations [5] - Professional consulting firms and databases, such as KPMG, PwC, and Deloitte, also provide tax data and analysis reports that include total tax revenue and the impact of tax policies [6] Group 2: Practical Applications of Tax Revenue Data - For corporate tax planning, a cross-border e-commerce company entering the UK market can utilize the UK budget report to understand the main tax sources, allowing for effective tax burden prediction and compliance planning [8] - Foreign investors can assess the suitability of the UK tax policy for long-term investment by reviewing ONS public finance statistics, which indicate a steady increase in tax revenue, particularly in corporate tax and VAT [9] Group 3: Challenges in Accessing Tax Revenue Data - Tax data is subject to annual changes, especially following tax law adjustments or budget report releases, necessitating regular visits to HMRC or ONS for the latest information [10] - Non-professionals may find it challenging to interpret detailed data from government platforms, suggesting the need for hiring professional tax advisors or using specialized tax analysis tools for accurate decision-making [11]

Core Insights - The third-quarter reports of A-share listed companies are crucial for predicting annual performance, as they reflect key operational data from the first three quarters of the year [1] - Companies that show stable growth in both revenue and net profit during the first three quarters are likely to maintain a positive performance trend for the entire year [1] - Various companies across multiple sectors have demonstrated positive growth through optimized strategies, market expansion, and product quality improvements [1] Summary by Sections Performance Indicators - The third-quarter reports provide insights into key indicators such as operating revenue and net profit, allowing investors to assess profitability and growth potential [1] - Companies that have achieved double growth in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters are expected to continue this trend into the fourth quarter [1] Market Dynamics - Investors should not only focus on the surface data of the third-quarter reports but also consider potential market changes in the fourth quarter, including macroeconomic fluctuations and industry policy adjustments [2] - The performance of companies in cyclical industries should be analyzed to determine whether growth is a short-term rebound or a long-term trend [2] Strategic Considerations - The third-quarter reports serve as a precursor to annual report trends, providing an opportunity for investors to gain insights into potential annual performance [2] - Changes in major shareholders, such as new significant shareholders entering or existing ones exiting, can reflect the investment value of a company and influence annual performance [2] Cautionary Notes - Exceptional third-quarter performance does not guarantee strong annual results, as unforeseen "black swan" events in the fourth quarter could significantly alter overall performance [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate inventory serves as a "barometer" for market supply and demand, with a strong negative correlation between lithium carbonate prices and inventory levels [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory is experiencing a continuous reduction, but the pace of inventory depletion is slower compared to the same period last year [1] - Analysts observe a significant transfer of inventory from upstream to downstream, indicating a robust supply-demand situation, with buyers showing increased willingness to purchase due to rising demand [1] Group 2 - The introduction of lithium carbonate futures provides an effective price discovery mechanism, helping companies manage price risks and reducing irrational price fluctuations in the spot market [2] - Recent policy announcements regarding new energy storage capacity targets may lead to temporary market fluctuations, but the actual impact on lithium carbonate prices is expected to be limited [2] - Market reactions to policy information often exhibit phase characteristics, initially causing emotional volatility but eventually stabilizing based on fundamental factors [2] Group 3 - Short-term news may cause localized disturbances in the lithium carbonate market, but long-term price trends depend on the development speed of the global new energy industry and supply-demand balance across the industry chain [3] - Investors should analyze actual data from the upstream and downstream of the industry chain to avoid irrational decisions based on single pieces of information [3] - It is essential to monitor inventory depletion rates, inventory transfers, price volatility, and long-term agreements to make informed investment decisions [3]