Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance was below expectations, with total revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, and an adjusted net profit of -16.01 billion yuan, which was lower than Bloomberg consensus estimates [7] - The core local business turned from profit to loss due to intensified competition, while new business losses improved [7] - The report anticipates that Q3 represented the peak of losses, with expectations for marginal improvement in Q4, although competitive strategies need to be monitored [7] - The company is expected to continue strengthening its supply side, user experience, and membership benefits, maintaining its market share and user engagement advantages [7] - New business losses were better than expected, with strong growth in grocery retail businesses like Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Keeta, which are expanding globally [7] - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down significantly due to the impact of competition on profits, but the long-term profit recovery and overseas expansion potential remain promising [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: 2023A: 276.75 billion yuan, 2024A: 337.59 billion yuan, 2025E: 364.53 billion yuan, 2026E: 415.41 billion yuan, 2027E: 478.47 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at -21.57 billion yuan, with a recovery to 19.63 billion yuan by 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at -3.53 yuan per share, with a recovery to 3.21 yuan per share by 2027E [1]

Group 1 - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and Douyin are intensifying their efforts in the dine-in sector following the conclusion of the "takeout war" [1][2] - Starting September 20, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me will pilot a group buying business for dine-in merchants in key business districts of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Jiaxing, focusing initially on food and beverage offerings [1][2] - The group buying initiative includes a variety of food categories such as tea drinks, desserts, and local specialties, with attractive discounts on popular items [1][2] Group 2 - Alibaba recently launched the "Gaode Street Ranking" on September 10, investing over 1 billion yuan to support offline dining and service consumption, including 200 million yuan in taxi vouchers and 950 million yuan in consumption coupons [2] - The Gaode Street Ranking features over 1.6 million offline service merchants across more than 300 cities, including over 870,000 restaurants and 230,000 hotels, aiming to enhance local service visibility [2][3] - Morgan Stanley views Alibaba's actions as a clear signal of its renewed focus on the dine-in business, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in local life services [2] Group 3 - On the same day as the Gaode launch, Meituan announced a significant business adjustment, reviving its quality takeout service under Dazhong Dianping, which will now include a wide range of high-quality dining options [3] - The competitive moves from Alibaba and Meituan are perceived as direct challenges to each other's dine-in services, with Alibaba's group buying and Gaode ranking targeting Meituan's core dine-in business [3] - Douyin is also actively engaging in the local life sector, launching the "Smoke and Fire Small Shop Support Plan" to assist small dining businesses through various incentives and promotional efforts [3]

Core Insights - The competition in the local dining sector is intensifying as major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and Douyin are making significant moves in the market following the "takeout war" [2][10] Group 1: Alibaba's Initiatives - Starting September 20, Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me will pilot a group buying business for in-store merchants in key urban areas, focusing initially on dining options [2][10] - The group buying offerings will include various food categories such as tea drinks, desserts, and local specialties, available on multiple platforms including Taobao Flash Sale, Alipay, and Gaode APP [2] - Alibaba has recently launched the "Gaode Street Ranking," investing over 1 billion yuan to support offline dining and service consumption, which includes issuing 200 million yuan in taxi vouchers and 950 million yuan in consumption coupons [10] Group 2: Meituan's Response - On the same day as the Gaode Street Ranking launch, Meituan announced a major business adjustment, officially "restarting" its quality takeout service, which will cover various high-quality dining options [11] - The service will include over 1,400 restaurants from the 2025 "Must-Eat List," nearly 30 "Black Pearl" restaurants, and around 1,500 high-star hotel restaurants [11] Group 3: Douyin's Strategy - Douyin has also been active in the local dining sector, launching the "Smoke and Fire Small Shop Support Plan" to assist small and medium-sized dining businesses through various incentives [11] - The initiative includes a "Smoke and Fire List" that will feature 30-50 well-rated small shops in each city, with additional support such as 3,000 yuan in store visit incentives and shared traffic boosts [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses the intensifying competition in the food delivery market, particularly focusing on Alibaba's launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" and its implications for the industry [2][4] - The competition is characterized by aggressive marketing strategies and significant financial investments from major players like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba, leading to a reshaping of market dynamics [5][7] Group 1: Market Developments - On September 10, Alibaba launched the "Gaode Street Ranking," which quickly gained over 40 million users, surpassing the daily active users of Dazhong Dianping [2] - Meituan responded by enhancing its "in-store to home" strategy and restarting its "quality takeaway" service, aiming to strengthen its competitive edge in high-quality food delivery [2][5] - The competition has led to increased marketing expenditures, with Meituan's sales and marketing costs rising by 51.8% to 22.5 billion yuan, and JD's marketing costs increasing by 127.6% to 27 billion yuan [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Alibaba's integration of Ele.me into the Taobao Flash Purchase platform and the launch of significant coupon campaigns indicate its serious entry into the food delivery battle [4][5] - The market share dynamics have shifted, with Meituan's share dropping from 85% to 65%, while Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me's share increased from 11% to 28% [5] - The introduction of the "Gaode Street Ranking" represents a direct challenge to Meituan's core profit areas, leveraging AI to enhance user experience and service delivery [6][7] Group 3: Future Implications - The competition is expected to escalate, with potential new entrants like Baidu and Tencent, which have existing mapping services and user bases that could disrupt the current landscape [8][9] - The article suggests that reliance on heavy subsidies for user acquisition is unsustainable, and future strategies must focus on user needs and sustainable growth [8][9] - The ongoing battle for dominance in local life services is likely to lead to further market changes and the emergence of new players, reminiscent of past competitive cycles in the industry [9]

Group 1 - Gaode Map launched the "Gaode Street Ranking," a comprehensive rating and ranking system for businesses, covering food, attractions, hotels, and more [1] - The ranking is based on extensive real travel data from Gaode, utilizing travel popularity and experience quality over the past 30 days, with daily updates [3] - Meituan announced the "restart" of its quality takeaway service on the same day, leveraging its self-developed large model and vast real review data to select over one million high-rated dining businesses [3][5] Group 2 - The upgraded quality takeaway service will cover various premium restaurants, including over 1,400 restaurants from the 2025 "Must-Eat List," nearly 30 "Black Pearl" restaurants, and around 1,500 high-star hotel restaurants [5] - Both Alibaba and Meituan are intensifying their efforts to dominate the local lifestyle service market, with Alibaba entering the takeaway space and Gaode expanding into the dining business [5] - Analysts suggest that the competition between the two companies will enhance service optimization, improve consumer experience, and promote healthy market development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the local life service sector is intensifying as major players like Alibaba and Douyin launch similar support plans to attract users and increase in-store consumption, indicating a shift in focus from food delivery to in-store services [1][4][9] Group 1: Company Strategies - Alibaba, through Gaode, has initiated the "Smoke Fire Good Store Support Plan" with over 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage in-store consumption [1] - Douyin has launched a similar "Smoke Fire Small Store Support Plan" targeting merchants with an average consumption of under 100 yuan, providing traffic incentives [1] - Meituan's stock has dropped 49.1% from its March high, while Alibaba's stock has risen 98.6% from its January low, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - UBS predicts that the competition will shift from food delivery to non-food instant retail and in-store services in the fourth quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley has lowered Meituan's profit expectations for its in-store business for 2026-2027 due to the competitive pressure from Alibaba [1] - The local life service market is evolving into a duopoly between Meituan and Douyin, with Alibaba re-entering the fray [4][6] Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the subsidies from major companies are aimed at capturing user mindshare and increasing app engagement rather than merely acquiring new users [1][8] - The local life service sector is seen as a battleground for e-commerce platforms, with Alibaba's strategy focusing on integrating its ecosystem to enhance user experience [6][7] - The overall growth of the e-commerce sector is slowing, with traditional platforms facing challenges from content-driven e-commerce like Douyin and Kuaishou [7][8]

Core Insights - The competition in the local life service sector has intensified, with Alibaba entering the market through Gaode and launching the "Smoke Fire Good Store Support Plan" with over 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage in-store consumption [1] - Douyin has also announced a similar initiative called the "Smoke Fire Small Store Support Plan," targeting merchants with an average consumption of under 100 yuan, providing traffic incentives and resources [1] - Analysts predict that the focus of competition will shift from food delivery to non-food instant retail and in-store services in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] Company Strategies - Alibaba's investment in in-store services is driven by the higher profitability of this business and the need for an independent platform to support local life services, as Taobao cannot cover all scenarios [3] - Meituan has historically maintained its leading position through cash flow control and a strong ground team, but faces challenges from new entrants like Douyin and Alibaba [4] - Douyin's local life services achieved over 300 billion yuan in transaction volume in 2023, but faces challenges in user retention and service fulfillment [4][5] Market Dynamics - The local life service market is evolving into a duopoly between Meituan and Douyin, with Alibaba's re-entry pushing the industry into a new competitive phase [4] - The overall e-commerce market is experiencing slower growth, with traditional platforms like Alibaba and JD.com facing competition from content-driven e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [7][8] - The competition is not just about acquiring new users but also about cultivating user habits and increasing the time spent on respective apps, which can lead to higher-margin e-commerce transactions [1][8] Financial Performance - Meituan's stock has dropped 49.1% from its March high of 189.6 HKD to 96.55 HKD, while Alibaba's stock has risen 98.6% from a low of 76.073 HKD to 151.1 HKD, marking a four-year high [2] - Meituan reported revenue of 918.4 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 14.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, while Douyin's e-commerce GMV is projected to reach 4.2 trillion yuan in 2025 [7]

Core Insights - Alibaba is leveraging its high-frequency traffic and platform advantages through the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" to penetrate the local lifestyle market, aiming to reshape the credit system based on user behavior data [1][4][9] - The competition in the local lifestyle sector is intensifying, with Meituan quickly responding by revamping its quality takeaway services and enhancing its user trust through AI and real reviews [7][8] Group 1: Alibaba's Strategy - The "Gaode Street Ranking" aims to create a non-manipulable ranking system that integrates user behavior and credit scores, addressing the long-standing issues faced by restaurant businesses regarding review credibility [2][4] - The ranking system will consider factors such as navigation visits, repurchase rates, and user demographics, with plans to introduce more niche rankings in the future [2][3] - Alibaba's previous attempts in the local lifestyle market have not significantly challenged Meituan's dominance, but the integration of Gaode's capabilities may provide a new opportunity for growth [4][9] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Meituan has responded to the launch of the Gaode Street Ranking by reintroducing its quality takeaway service, emphasizing AI-driven real reviews and offering substantial consumer coupons [7][8] - The competition is not limited to Alibaba and Meituan; Douyin has also entered the local lifestyle market, achieving significant transaction volumes and posing a challenge to both companies [8][9] - Analysts suggest that both companies need to differentiate their services to avoid a homogenized user experience, as they both aim to optimize their respective ecosystems [9]

Core Insights - Alibaba's Gaode Map has launched the "Gaode Street Ranking," the world's first ranking based on user behavior, signaling a renewed focus on the local life services market [1][2] - Morgan Stanley analysts view this move as a clear indication of Alibaba's intent to reshape the competitive landscape in local services, particularly impacting Meituan's profitability [1][4] Group 1: Market Strategy - The "Gaode Street Ranking" is similar to Meituan's model, indicating Alibaba's strategic push into in-store services, which may extend competition into this area [1][2] - Gaode Map, with nearly 200 million daily active users, provides a significant traffic entry point for Alibaba to penetrate the in-store service market [2][3] - The launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" is just the beginning, with expectations for more related services and products to be introduced in the future [2][3] Group 2: Financial Implications - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Meituan's long-term profitability forecast for in-store services from 2.5% to 2% due to increased competition from Alibaba [4][5] - Meituan's core local business is projected to incur an operating loss of 10 billion yuan in Q3, with a significant decline in profitability expected for the 2025 fiscal year [5] - Alibaba's core logic for investment preference is based on its cloud business's growth and the anticipated double-digit growth in its core e-commerce customer management revenue [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in local life services is expected to intensify, with Alibaba's technological capabilities and user base positioning it favorably in this rapidly growing market [5] - The introduction of a 1 billion yuan incentive plan aims to stimulate consumer traffic to offline dining and service industries, indicating Alibaba's aggressive approach to market penetration [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The competition among major internet giants in the local service sector is intensifying, particularly between Alibaba and Meituan, as they launch new services to capture market share in the dining and takeaway segments [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Alibaba announced the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" to compete directly with Meituan's "Dazhong Dianping" [1] - Meituan has officially restarted its quality takeaway service, utilizing a self-developed large model to analyze user needs based on extensive real review data [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competition in local life services is becoming more fierce, with Alibaba's new initiative potentially improving the objectivity of consumer reviews compared to existing subjective factors in Dazhong Dianping [1] - The ongoing rivalry among Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com is characterized as a "three-country kill," indicating a highly competitive environment [1] Group 3: Financial Implications - Alibaba's diverse business portfolio may provide better resilience against short-term subsidy impacts compared to Meituan and JD.com, which are more financially affected by the competition [1]