各位投资者朋友大家上午好。欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。从七月份以来， 每一个礼拜一的电话会议里面，我们不断强调一个判断，水流来了。今天我们想系统性的整合对这个水 牛背后的一些逻辑框架，特别是融合最近投资者朋友们给我们的一些市场反馈。在未来这个水流的持续 性的驱动力，以及潜在的可能会改变它的一些制约因素上做一些分析。 发言人 00:39 当然了，这个水流来了也不是一个简单的口号。大家也会感觉到，七月初的时候，可能它是一个水流， 小荷才露尖尖角。但进入八月份以来，这个水温上的比较快，甚至有点略微烫人了。可以明显的感受到 我们周边的一些投资者问我们基本面的问题少了一些问资金面、问流动性、问宏大叙事的问题变多了。 特别是很多人都会问对水流的前世今生、历史规律，对它处于不同阶段有没有一些征兆，这方面的诉求 变强了。对这块因为术业有专攻，应该是由我们负责策略和跨了跨资产配置的 lyra 首席策略师和他的 团队更为擅长。但不巧的是上周出差东京，这周目前 Laura 在去美国的飞机上，所以缺席两次。但大 家可能从过去一周他和他的团队发布的研究报告，以及在像 bloomberg 之类做的访谈， ...

中国入境游市场前景广阔，预计未来十年收入年化增长约 19%，上半年 外国人入境增长 30%，旅游服务出口增长超过 60%，免签政策是重要 推动力，AI 和科技发展消除语言障碍。 Q&A 近期市场的主要驱动力是什么？ 近期市场的主要驱动力可以归结为三大因素。首先是宏观叙事的改善，自去年 9 月以来，政策方向逐渐清晰，信心有所恢复。其次是微观产业提供了许多燃 点，例如 AI 算力自主化、创新药和新消费等结构性主题不断涌现。最重要的是 资金流入股市，从七月初开始，资金搬家现象显著增加，这种流动性驱动的行 情正在推动市场上涨。 当前经济基本面的情况如何？ 当前经济基本面仍然较为疲弱。预计三季度 GDP 增长速度将回落至 4.5%左右。 从八月份的高频指标来看，七月份的数据全面低于预期，而八月份在天气因素 消退后可能会略有反弹，但整体表现仍不如二季度。出口端抢出口效应消退， 集装箱码头数据下行；耐用消费品消费，即使有以旧换新第三轮资金下发，但 汽车、家电同比恶化；房地产市场仍在调整中，二手房成交和价格继续探底； 财政刺激效果有限，大项目虽批复但基建需求有限。 大摩闭门会：邢自强-牛市未歇 20250825 摘要 中国经 ...

Core Insights - Users reported that Apple phones experienced location inaccuracies, showing users in Sichuan while they were actually in Beijing [1] - Affected applications include Gaode Map, Didi, shared bicycles, and KEEP, indicating a broader issue with location services [2] - Similar location issues were noted in 2024, suggesting a recurring problem potentially linked to network base station errors [2]

美团、淘宝、饿了么、京东8月1日先后发布声明表示，坚决抵制恶性竞争，坚决规范促销行为，杜绝不 正当竞争行为，推动建立公平有序行业秩序，促进各方互利共赢。此前，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美 团、京东3家平台企业，要求严格落实主体责任。 即时零售赛道崭露头角，也反映了外卖、电商两大行业面临的转型压力。一方面，外卖市场的用户池与 订单总量已接近天花板；另一方面，线上零售（电商）的渗透率也逐渐到顶。 基于各自的能力圈，阿里巴巴、美团、京东三大巨头也展现出差异化的战略意图。网经社电子商务研究 中心主任曹磊对证券时报记者表示，阿里巴巴利用淘宝、天猫庞大的商品资源和用户基础，结合饿了么 的即时配送能力，打造"远场电商+近场零售" 的全场景消费模式，修复电商基本盘。京东依托强大的供 应链优势，尤其是在3C家电等品类的供应链管理经验，通过即时零售拓展新的业务增长点。美团凭借 强大的履约体系和广泛的商家资源，强化"万物到家"概念，将餐饮优势延伸至全品类即时零售。 更重要的是，互联网主体用户的画像正处于迭代期，以"00后"为代表的新兴消费主力呈现出与众不同的 消费习惯。 监管约谈和行业自律为"外卖大战"按下了暂停键，但各方围绕即时零 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the robust growth of China's mobile internet sector, with a total of 1.267 billion monthly active users as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [3][11]. - User engagement metrics show an increase in average daily usage time to 7.97 hours and frequency of use to 117.9 times per day, representing growth of 7.8% and 2.6% respectively [3][13]. - The competitive landscape among top internet companies is intensifying, with significant user growth for JD and Douyin at 13% and 12% year-on-year, while Pinduoduo and Baidu show minimal growth [3][18]. Group 1: Mobile Internet Growth - The overall economic environment in China is stabilizing, with digital economy policies boosting consumer confidence and market activity [9][15]. - The mobile internet user base continues to grow steadily, maintaining an increase of over 2% in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The increase in user engagement is primarily driven by younger and elderly demographics, with a notable shift of users towards first-tier cities [15][17]. Group 2: AI Applications - The AI application market is experiencing fierce competition, with 66.7% of the top 30 AI applications coming from the leading internet companies [4][22]. - The growth of AI applications is evident across various sectors, with significant user increases in AI native apps and plugins [4][26]. - The AI search engine segment has shown the largest growth, indicating a shift in user preferences towards AI-integrated solutions [4][32]. Group 3: Advertising and Marketing - The online advertising market in China surpassed 200 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8% [45][53]. - Brands are increasingly investing in marketing to enhance brand image, with a notable rise in advertising expenditure among beauty brands [59][61]. - The "618" shopping festival remains a critical marketing period, significantly impacting advertising spend and consumer engagement [57][63]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The short video industry continues to consolidate around platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, with Douyin reaching 900 million users [76][78]. - The online travel sector has seen a 4.4% year-on-year increase in user numbers, reaching 156 million users by June 2025 [107][109]. - The integration of technology in the travel sector is enhancing user experiences, with AI and AR applications becoming more prevalent [111][113]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior Trends - The trend of "lightweight travel" is growing, with consumers favoring immediate purchase options and personalized experiences [116][118]. - The rise of "pet-friendly" services in the travel industry reflects changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [120][122]. - The demand for experiential consumption is driving innovation in the hospitality sector, with hotels offering unique service combinations [114][116].

Core Insights - Douyin is investing heavily in its local life services, with platform subsidies in the range of hundreds of millions from July 15 to the end of August, aiming to enhance user experience and attract more customers [1][2] - The initiative includes partnerships with major hotel groups to offer significant discounts and exclusive deals, catering to diverse consumer needs during the summer [2] - The strategic move is seen as a response to the saturation of user growth in Douyin's core business, seeking new revenue streams through local services [3][4] Group 1: Market Strategy - Douyin's entry into local life services is driven by the need to find new growth engines as its user growth approaches a ceiling, with local services representing a high-frequency consumption market [3] - The local life services market in China is vast, with potential for high profitability, especially in sectors like dining and travel, where online penetration is still growing [3] - Douyin aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem by integrating online content with offline experiences, enhancing user engagement and platform value [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The move is also a strategic response to competitors like Meituan, which currently holds a dominant market share in local services, particularly in dining [4][7] - Douyin's strategy includes leveraging its algorithm and capital advantages to quickly adapt successful business models from other giants in the industry [8] - The company is expected to adopt a flexible approach, potentially utilizing both self-operated and third-party models to optimize its local services [8] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Douyin faces challenges in ensuring service quality and user experience in the complex offline service environment, requiring robust operational capabilities [7] - Building a sustainable merchant ecosystem is crucial, as Douyin needs to attract and manage a large number of small and medium-sized businesses [7] - Cultivating user habits to shift from established platforms like Meituan will require time and consistent effort [7]

Core Viewpoint - The podcast "乱翻书" has evolved from a book recommendation column to a platform for discussing industry developments, focusing on technology archaeology, industry observation, and innovative company research, aiming to provide valuable insights into the cycles of innovation, competition, and decline in companies [4][29]. Group 1: Podcast Development - "乱翻书" podcast was launched in September 2021 and has released 233 episodes, averaging 103 minutes each, totaling 400 hours of content [2]. - The podcast's origins trace back to a book recommendation column hosted in 2012, evolving through various formats including a personal WeChat account and live broadcasts before becoming a podcast [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The podcast draws parallels between historical events and modern entrepreneurial journeys, suggesting that significant shifts in the industry often stem from pivotal moments that can alter the course of companies [12][14]. - The transformation of communication tools, as exemplified by the "漂流瓶" feature from QQ, highlights the importance of understanding user psychology and the evolution of social interaction platforms [10]. Group 3: Cultural Shifts - The perception of Chinese creativity has shifted dramatically over the past decade, with the current landscape showcasing a vibrant culture of content creation and innovation, particularly in short video formats [17]. - The podcast emphasizes the role of technology and market conditions in shaping the success of companies, with a focus on the impact of mobile internet and AI on industry dynamics [18]. Group 4: Future Directions - The podcast intends to continue analyzing key turning points in industry development, aiming to prepare for future trends and shifts in the market [29].

Group 1 - CEO Jensen Huang praised China's AI models as "world-class" and emphasized the importance of the Chinese market for NVIDIA, committing to continued investment in the region [1] - Huang highlighted that AI will revolutionize traditional manufacturing by enabling collaboration between humans and AI, leading to a new industrial revolution and growth opportunities [1] - NVIDIA is closely collaborating with Xiaomi in multiple fields, and Huang expressed strong interest in Xiaomi's electric vehicles, noting the impressive advancements in China's electric vehicle sector over the past five years [1] Group 2 - Huang stated that AI has become a new infrastructure, comparable to electricity and the internet, reshaping global supply chains and altering the design, production, and transportation of goods [2] - He acknowledged the rapid development of AI in China, specifically mentioning companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Alibaba, and noted that over 1.5 million developers in China are using NVIDIA technology to drive innovation [2] - Huang praised the open-source model adopted by Chinese companies, which fosters international cooperation and the establishment of AI safety standards, citing the Kimi K2 model as an example of surpassing OpenAI's ChatGPT [2] Group 3 - AI is transforming every industry and driving various sectors of Chinese consumer technology, including platforms like WeChat, Taobao, and Meituan, all of which rely on AI [3] - NVIDIA is preparing to resume shipments of the H20 chip to China, which had been halted due to U.S. export restrictions, significantly impacting NVIDIA's market share in China [3] - Following the announcement, NVIDIA's stock price rose by 4.04%, reaching $170.7, with a market capitalization increase of $161.8 billion (approximately 1160.5 billion RMB) [3]

Group 1 - The e-commerce and food delivery sectors in China have experienced a significant surge in growth, breaking previous limitations and expectations [1][2] - On July 7, Taobao Shanguo and Ele.me reported over 80 million daily orders, with non-food orders exceeding 13 million, while Meituan reached a record of 120 million daily retail orders on July 5 [1] - The entry of major platforms has led to a 105% increase in instant retail orders, reaching 170 million, indicating a shift from mere competition to genuine industry growth [1][2] Group 2 - Instant retail has evolved from a debated concept to a necessity, driven by urban density, advanced logistics, and changing consumer demands [2][3] - The competition in the "food delivery war" extends beyond subsidies, focusing on comprehensive business capabilities and location-based services [2][3] - The efficiency revolution in instant retail is expected to reshape supply chains and consumer behavior, enhancing the overall retail ecosystem [3] Group 3 - E-commerce remains a core revenue source for Chinese tech platforms, providing essential funding for long-term investments in advanced technologies like AI and cloud computing [4] - The evolution of e-commerce reflects continuous innovation, transitioning from traditional models to social commerce and live streaming, culminating in the rise of instant retail [4][5] - The active e-commerce market signals ongoing innovation in the consumer internet space, suggesting that the industry is far from reaching its peak [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent intensification of the instant retail subsidy war, with Alibaba's Taobao and Meituan increasing subsidies not only for food delivery but also for hotel bookings, marks a new competitive landscape in the local lifestyle consumption sector [1][2]. Group 1: Instant Retail Developments - Taobao has introduced "special price hotels" with discounts ranging from 18% to 67%, targeting low-star hotels priced between 80 to 200 yuan [1][2]. - The integration of Fliggy into the instant retail strategy aligns with Alibaba's broader plan to leverage its extensive user base for new service offerings [3]. - The current summer travel season presents an opportunity for Taobao and Meituan to engage in fierce competition in the local lifestyle market [2][3]. Group 2: OTA Industry Dynamics - The OTA industry has seen a decade of stability since Ctrip's acquisition of Qunar, with Ctrip dominating the market [4][5]. - Recent moves by Alibaba and JD.com into the travel market could disrupt the long-standing equilibrium, although the effectiveness of these strategies remains to be seen [5][6]. - The competition in the OTA sector is characterized by ecological and enduring battles, with various players like Meituan and Fliggy leveraging their unique strengths to capture market share [5][6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition is expected to intensify between Alibaba and Meituan, particularly in the low-star hotel segment, where both companies are seeking to establish a foothold [6]. - Meituan's strategy involves targeting the mid-to-low-end market while also attempting to strengthen its presence in the high-star hotel segment through partnerships [6]. - The demographic shift towards younger consumers, particularly those born in the 1990s, is influencing the strategies of platforms like Fliggy, which aims to engage this key consumer group [6].